Interesting, has there been much coverage on this? I've not seen it.
SARS CoV-2 coronavirus / Covid-19 (No tin foil hat silliness please)
- Thread starter Don't Kill Bill
- Start date
Interesting, has there been much coverage on this? I've not seen it.
Checking from worldometers: https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/
Who's to say deaths since December haven't been due to covid 19? But because it wasn't a massive issue then they were just out down as flu or the underlying health condition?
How do you know half the people haven't had it? Didn't know you had tested everyone.
It unlikely 50% have already had it, but just because only X amount have been tested doesn't mean that's the correct number. It could be any number, but some show no symptoms so never get a test, others just fight it off naturally so never get tested.
It may have have just hit speak spreading rate and starting to overwhelm the hospital's now.
Lockdowns are obviously working due to the nature of the virus. Stay in, can't come in contact with others, virus doesn't spread. Stops peak exposure.
Maybe if you get your head out your arse and think for one second you might actually be able to have an actual discussion with people instead of thinking your Bertie big bollocks who knows all.
There's a lot of good information in the thread then alot of complete whoppers just pretending they know what they're talking about.
And you didn't notice that it hasn't moved for a while? The next report is tomorrow, the previous one was on April 2nd and the stat from March 27.
This makes quite a lot of sense to me (I have no scientific background and am actually thick as pig shite).
Surely if the virus was surviving on surfaces and infectious from them (it survives doesn't it? Just can't be reactivated to cause harm?) then wouldn't we be seeing a shit ton of cases due to pizza delivery, Amazon deliveries, cash exchanges, that sort of thing? Everyone is turning into shopaholics online. Unless Amazon and co are doing every thing perfectly, never sneezing etc.
Always thought it was weird how non essential deliveries were still allowed if the virus survives on cardboard fairly well.
I've not heard/read that Diarrhoea is a covid19 symptom and yet it seems as though it's significant:
"New research out of China shows that a minority of cases appear with gastrointestinal symptoms only. In about one-quarter of patients in the new study, diarrhoea and other digestive symptoms were the only symptoms seen in mild COVID-19 cases, and those patients sought medical care later than those with respiratory symptoms."
Some patients with COVID-19 experience gastrointestinal symptoms, particularly diarrhoea, as the first sign of illness, according to a new study. Among this subset of patients — who have mild disease overall — respiratory symptoms show up only later in the illness, and some never develop respiratory symptoms at all, the authors said. The findings are important because those without classic symptoms of COVID-19— such as cough, shortness of breath and fever — may go undiagnosed and could potentially spread the illness to others, the researchers said.
We found that digestive symptoms are common in patients with COVID-19. Moreover, these patients have a longer time from onset to admission, evidence of longer coagulation, and higher liver enzyme levels. Clinicians should recognize that digestive symptoms, such as diarrhea, are commonly among the presenting features of COVID-19, and that the index of suspicion may need to be raised earlier in at-risk patients presenting with digestive symptoms. However, further large sample studies are needed to confirm these findings.
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This is like when some maniac goes nuts on the streets, and they'll say, "well, we were aware of them".
Well, great lot of good!
Aye, that's a strange one, our lass had the shits the other day, thought nothing of it because it wasn't mentioned much. I think it's a 1% thing on a leaflet I have? But if they're saying it's only 1% of cases but could be in 25% that could be a huge sign a lot more people have had it than originally thought.
Felt off today. Itchy throat - now feeling tired but not sure if that's linked. No idea if I've got it. Been going into work but it's extremely unlikely that I could have caught it from there since there's hardly anyone else in.
Really interesting given what we know now.
According to a report in the Journal of the American Medical Association, as many as 98% of COVID-19 patients who were hospitalized had a fever, between 76% and 82% had a dry cough, and 11% to 44% reported exhaustion and fatigue.
Don't panic, but I'd take tomorrow off if I were you, and self isolate at home for next 2 days. Even if you have it, am sure you'll be fine. Stay in touch!
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This is in line with cases of coronavirus being traced back as far as November. Given what we know now about this virus, it's entirely plausible that this was spreading relatively undetected for months before the first few cases were identified.
Given what we know about the virus I’d argue the exact opposite. If it’s been in the West for months before the first cases why was the infection rate or the mortality rate so low?
Why the exponential growth and need for ventilators in the last few weeks and not back then?
Singapore is a very small country. There is no hiding, not possible even if the government wish to.
As mentioned by massi83, most cases happened in the last two weeks. We only just started our "circuit breaker" (fancy name for stay in shelter) this week. Prior to that, the numbers of infections are low and almost every case was accounted for. The daily briefings not only tells us how many new cases per day, it also tells us the links between each case.
Unfortunately as the community spread widens, now we have a huge number of cases with no established link. As of now, we have 29 patients in ICU. The spike in numbers these two weeks might translate into more critical cases and deaths in the following weeks.
I don't think we'll know for quite a while but it's a possibility. It just means that the virus is less deadly than thought but more of the population has had it, and we are in the peak now.
Would be great news but I think unlikely.
I read a week or so ago that the same was reported in Italy, they had unusually high flu deaths around December 2019. The last I heard China have yet to find patient zero. Without that they still don't know for certain when it started.
Yeah, it looks extrmely unlikely to me. We saw how fast it spread in March if it was since November in Europe then why it waited so long to spread?
Can you not see how completely illogical that is? Why is it only killing people at an exponential rate now?
Scary figures here:
The real numbers from Portugal for example is more than 1000 deaths and not 300 and they say Italy would add at least another 4000 deaths, those numbers came from a organization who calculate the deaths From the last 5 years.
If you think about a normal distribution, it just means it took 3/4 months to get onto the exponential part of the curve.
Not sure if this is related, as a clever form of social distancing, but funny nonetheless
It still doesn’t make any sense. The time between an area getting the first case and that area’s health service being overwhelmed is around 3 weeks.
The idea this could have been happening on more linear scale without the health service still raising questions about isolated cases of people dying after needing ICU and ventilation is slim to none.
small insight into life post lockdown .... Gonna be very tricky to get that right.
The test wasn't developed until January, and we have only seen testing ramped up from early March. If people had Covid 19 since November Doctors would have treated it as the flu, and there is evidence that it was a bad flu year before we Covid 19 was formally identified.
People need ventilation and die of the flu all the time, it's not uncommon. As I say it's an unlikely scenario but it's definitely possible, until we have a way of telling how many people have had it we just don't know.
Yeah, kind of agree. If some strain mutated in something that is way more contagious than before, then we probably could assume that the new strain spread much more rapidly (essentially from a linear or quadratic spread to an exponential one) but there is nothing to suggest that this is the case.
What I think is more likely is that we just had a really bad year. A very bad flu season followed by the new virus. I guess it is the easiest explanation for more than average deaths/infections during the winter.
The developments here over the last few days (rapid outbreak in workers dormitories) had me thinking, places such as India and Bangladesh where social distancing isn't a real option and where people live in tight communes are going to experience an explosion of cases soon. The pandemic is far from its peak globally
To think half the population have had it is just stupid though. Theres no benefit to entertaining such ideas.
If you look at the hospitilisation data alone, this virus is far, far too aggressive for cases to have slipped through and been chalked up as just the flu. In Italy the flu season is spread out over months but at its peak less than 100 people needed ICU care, even in this apparently bad year. Within 3 weeks of the virus outbreak almost 2,000 people were in ICU. Theres no way it goes unnoticed through half the population.
I just think it’s far more likely that people had colds/flu/food poisoning/whatever and they’re now retrofitting their experience to this.
Personally I’ve been lucky to avoid it all this year but in the previous god know how many I’ve been hit very bad with colds and flus including one with a persistent cough that actually produced blood at one point. Any one of those years I could argue it was CV symptoms. Hoarse cough, void of energy, headaches, you name it.
That said, my throat has improved throughout the day and I had my temp checked in thr morning (36.3). Stressing didn't help. Im WFH tomorrow and off till Tuesday. Could well be allergies.
I wasn't agreeing with the initial post, but I wasn't disagreeing, was just pointing out how poorly the reply came across. Anyone can talk shit and make it sound good.
Do we actually know what percentage of people show no symptoms? Or low symptoms? That's a key thing we need to find out, but it'll be nearly impossible won't it?
Are you numbers there to do with our massive flu season just before Christmas where there was an unexpected amount of flu cases compare to normal? To me that is something out of the ordinary. (@Fiskey) is currently providing the thread with info on that.
Whatever the case, it's all mental and doesn't really look like slowing down tbh, lockdown will end somewhere and they'll get a 2nd hit of it. (Think I read somewhere already has, Singapore maybe? Unless I dreamt it).
They’ve had tests for flu for ages though. Apparently there were a lot of cases of swine flu hospitalising people in Uk/Ireland in December/January. Which more than likely is the reason for so many people (who weren’t tested) thinking they might have had COVID-19.
I’ve talked to GP friends and they don’t remember a single case of someone losing their sense of smell when they saw the flu surge earlier in the year. That means they almost certainly didn’t see anyone with COVID-19.
Honestly, from what I've seen, the information coming out of the Chinese medical community and being published to the world at the beginning of January seems to of been first class. To a point where I doubt any western country would do any better.
Its flu season, there's god knows how many cases of pneumonia doing the rounds, a perfectly normal thing. Yet they managed to identify something odd about 20 or so cases in 3 separate hospitals in Wuhan, identified they could all be linked to the same food market and this is what has raised the alarm. I dunno what is involved in sequencing the genome of a virus, but they manged to identify it was a completely new virus, sequence it, and publish everything they knew about it to Lancet in a report on 11th January. Honestly, my impression of China has quite improved since this started.
There was a Governor in Wuhan who tried playing it down at the beginning (sound familiar?) and this is what the western world seem to be concentrating on when they say China covered it up.
There is very little we know now that wasn't already known at the end of January, yet there was still world leaders in March, including our own, trying to play it down and hold back any restrictions. Can't blame China for that.
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Something a bit strange/interesting about Worldometer. For some reason they divided France, France stats include Martinique, Guadeloupe, La Reunion, Mayotte and Guyane but they are all also listed separately.