So, if I'm interpreting these spreadsheets correctly, the deaths that took place yesterday were the lowest they've been in the last 14 days, is that right? They've been declining for the last 3 days. Would that suggest a peak has already happened?
SARS CoV-2 coronavirus / Covid-19 (No tin foil hat silliness please)
- Thread starter Don't Kill Bill
- Start date
So, if I'm interpreting these spreadsheets correctly, the deaths that took place yesterday were the lowest they've been in the last 14 days, is that right? They've been declining for the last 3 days. Would that suggest a peak has already happened?
Here's a graph of deaths per day in England once they've been distributed according to the date of death rather than date of reporting (the last 5 days will likely see significant revision):
That 271 from last Tuesday seems massively out of place.
Updated graph of English deaths by day of death (last 5-6 days will see significant upward revision):
Either that or the Wuhan Ban ain't nuttin to feck wit.
It's going to take a huge plot twist for them not to be responsible for it.
Unfortunately not. Basically there's almost always a lag between the day the death occurs and the day it is reported. Today's figures added 306 to yesterday's total, 162 to the day before that, then 93 for Sunday, etc, etc. We won't know the specifics of yesterdays real figure with any degree of confidence for going on a week.
You could maybe say that the increase of new deaths is starting to slow down, but looking at how deaths are filling in for the past weekend it certainly looks like we're still trending higher.
given we can't stay in a lockdown for 18 months, it's going to be very difficult to ensure the elderely and vulnerable don't get ill even after this lockdown is eased.
Chinese scientists were letting people know in January. most of the West sat on it until March. i can already see Europe deflecting from their own inadequate response by pinning all of this on China, once this is all over and done with.
Probably both, I would say.
I still think it is quite below 1%. Iceland has tested around 5% of their population and there is around 0.4%. Diamond Princess had tested everyone and the rate is slightly above 1% but the age distribution is very different from the real world (old people are over represented, young people are under represented). I think there was a research paper who estimated it to around 0.6% which might be right.
I am curious to see how the situation evolves in Iceland. If other people who are sick die and the rate increases, then that is bad news. If not, then their ratio is probably the best number we have.
Btw, Germany is doing far more testing per capita than any other big country (though quite less than Iceland and a few other small countries) but even there is it very hard to get a test if you are not sick. So the asymptomatic cases (and those with very mild symptoms) do not figure in their official cases.
Responsible for what?
Just been out for my food shop. Seems to be a lot of people just walking about today, even saw some people walking back from the shop with just an ice cream and nothing else.
That’s a good point
Nah. They're debating. Ad infinitum.
I seem to remember countries taking precautions much earlier than March, may have been ineffective and overly hopeful that China could contain in Wuhan . No matter how confused, non-united in their efforts and ineffectual I feel you are drawing a completely inaccurate picture. There's not much credit to go around but the various effects were complex.
I agree but I arrive at this belief based on their authoritarian system of government scaring doctors into not reporting properly. The cover up is a problem. I don't see how you can argue against this.
I still think there is probably something in the eating of animals that carry the virus but its harder to explain. SARS came from similar origins and its just too much of a coincidence for this be written off as a potential cause.
This. The only scenario I see is a large proportion of the society getting this, as I don't believe a vaccine will be developed in time.
Countries that locked down hard early will need to stay more stringently locked down for longer than the countries who locked down later. That comes at huge economic cost. If they don't they've just shifted the peak to no benefit and extra economic cost.
How China "LIED" to the world!
*4 months ago*
*China:* OK there's a new virus. From now on no one moves around. If you go out, you must wear a mask. Nationwide lockdown and quarantine policies implemented.
*The West:* Don't trust anything these f**ing commies say! It's just a flu! They are trying to control everyone's life! There's no need for masks.
*Asia:* Let's take measures, wear masks and control frontiers
*3 months ago*
*China:* Start building hospitals so the medical system doesn't get overwhelmed.
*The West:* It's a concentration camp! They are murdering people out there! They are untrustworthy!
*Asia:* We keep our distance and security high
*2 month ago*
*China:* We are experiencing a surge of patients and this virus is super infectious via air and physical contact. We are also experiencing shortage on medical supplies and medical practitioners. Pulling everything from the country to Wuhan.
*The West:* Look how backward they are, not even having enough PPE for their doctors and nurses. They are clearly wrong about the method of transmission, that's why they are making everyone wear masks. They've even locked down the country and stopped the economy. What a bunch of idiots.
*Whole Asia:* Are those western countries gonna do something?
*over a month ago*
*China:* Numbers are reducing in China. People are slowly getting back to work now.
*The West:* F**ing liar! We are seeing numbers in Italy and it clearly doesn't match data from China! Millions of Chinese people must have died! It's still spreading!
*Whole Asia:* Why do they say masks are useless?
*a month ago*
*China:* Dude, why are things getting out of control out there? Where are your hospitals and why are you not in total lockdown? Were you just sitting there pointing fingers at me for three months, and did nothing?
*The west:* You commies never told us how dangerous this virus is! You've been giving us false data the whole time!!!
*China:* I don't understand. If you never trusted me, and when I said it's a big deal, you insisted it's actually a small flu, why do you maintain that millions of people must have died in China? If you think the number of deaths must be very high, doesn't that indicate it's a dangerous virus and you should be prepared? How could you believe millions of people have died, but at the same time not recognising it's dangerous?
*the West:* It's only a big deal in a backward country like yours, where people are poor and unhygienic, where the medical system is still in the 50's, where the government covers up figures and doesn't alarm people [as to] how dangerous it is! It shouldn't affect advanced countries like us!
*China:* But it is with you and killing your people now!!! Do something about it so you can still save lives!!!
*The West:* Not before we found everything we can blame on you!!! It's too late for us to do something now, people will just die and eventually we'll have herd immunity, but you must take the full responsibility for it!
*Now*
*World:* China help us. We need masks, ventilators, PPE etc.
*China:* To the best of my ability, I'll send PPE and medical personnel.
*The west:* You helped out of ulterior political motives to expand your influence ! Your numbers are fake. Tons of people died in your country. Our superior system technology and medicine are the proof that this virus couldn't be beaten with such low death numbers.
*Whole Asia:* What about all our numbers? much lower than China?
*England:* I'm going to sue you for billions of dollars and make you take responsability for all that mess.
*4 months ago*
*China:* OK there's a new virus. From now on no one moves around. If you go out, you must wear a mask. Nationwide lockdown and quarantine policies implemented.
*The West:* Don't trust anything these f**ing commies say! It's just a flu! They are trying to control everyone's life! There's no need for masks.
*Asia:* Let's take measures, wear masks and control frontiers
*3 months ago*
*China:* Start building hospitals so the medical system doesn't get overwhelmed.
*The West:* It's a concentration camp! They are murdering people out there! They are untrustworthy!
*Asia:* We keep our distance and security high
*2 month ago*
*China:* We are experiencing a surge of patients and this virus is super infectious via air and physical contact. We are also experiencing shortage on medical supplies and medical practitioners. Pulling everything from the country to Wuhan.
*The West:* Look how backward they are, not even having enough PPE for their doctors and nurses. They are clearly wrong about the method of transmission, that's why they are making everyone wear masks. They've even locked down the country and stopped the economy. What a bunch of idiots.
*Whole Asia:* Are those western countries gonna do something?
*over a month ago*
*China:* Numbers are reducing in China. People are slowly getting back to work now.
*The West:* F**ing liar! We are seeing numbers in Italy and it clearly doesn't match data from China! Millions of Chinese people must have died! It's still spreading!
*Whole Asia:* Why do they say masks are useless?
*a month ago*
*China:* Dude, why are things getting out of control out there? Where are your hospitals and why are you not in total lockdown? Were you just sitting there pointing fingers at me for three months, and did nothing?
*The west:* You commies never told us how dangerous this virus is! You've been giving us false data the whole time!!!
*China:* I don't understand. If you never trusted me, and when I said it's a big deal, you insisted it's actually a small flu, why do you maintain that millions of people must have died in China? If you think the number of deaths must be very high, doesn't that indicate it's a dangerous virus and you should be prepared? How could you believe millions of people have died, but at the same time not recognising it's dangerous?
*the West:* It's only a big deal in a backward country like yours, where people are poor and unhygienic, where the medical system is still in the 50's, where the government covers up figures and doesn't alarm people [as to] how dangerous it is! It shouldn't affect advanced countries like us!
*China:* But it is with you and killing your people now!!! Do something about it so you can still save lives!!!
*The West:* Not before we found everything we can blame on you!!! It's too late for us to do something now, people will just die and eventually we'll have herd immunity, but you must take the full responsibility for it!
*Now*
*World:* China help us. We need masks, ventilators, PPE etc.
*China:* To the best of my ability, I'll send PPE and medical personnel.
*The west:* You helped out of ulterior political motives to expand your influence ! Your numbers are fake. Tons of people died in your country. Our superior system technology and medicine are the proof that this virus couldn't be beaten with such low death numbers.
*Whole Asia:* What about all our numbers? much lower than China?
*England:* I'm going to sue you for billions of dollars and make you take responsability for all that mess.
maybe i'm being a little unfair, but the general point is that a lot of countries have had their own failings in their response (which is to be expected), and that i don't think it's fair to purely pin all of this on China. pandemics are a real threat, and will continue to be in the future, and the world needs to be better as a whole at dealing with them. just blaming China is missing the bigger picture.
Let's just put this 'The West sat on its hands' to bed. As early as Jan 26 the New York Times were reporting on efforts being made to test and contact trace in Airports and by authorities at Heathrow and other European countries. Not exactly doing nothing and not actually in full possesion of the facts from the Chinese governt.
Fair enough, it will be interesting to see how Iceland develops.
On the highlighted quote, I don't think that's necessarily quite true anymore - but it might just depend on each German state. Just based on an anecdote - a friend of mine was randomly tested just the weekend gone after one of her colleagues was a confirmed case. Though she's staying in a fairly small town (Naumburg).
The original 3 weeks isn't up until Monday anyway. I'd be amazed if it wasn't extended beyond that though
Poorly formatted post
I am not defending their style of government but it's better to understand what happened. China is a lot more federal than most people understand.
What happened in Wuhan can't be blamed as hiding from the central government.
Did Wuhan hide it? Of course they did. It's only in late December that the central government realised what was going on. I would accept the timings for them to send a team to Wuhan, investigate it and then get the testing on the virus and inform everyone in early to mid January.
There was no hiding by the central government. There was hiding by the Wuhan government.
As for the WHO they simply can't declare a pandemic by the guy who is on the TV.
They have an executive board too comprising of health officials of various governments from all over the world including the USA. Trump still have not nominated anyone to this post.
The western governments sat on their arse all these months. They did feck all from early January till early to mid March. That's two months. Now they are trying to deflect their own incompetence and liability for this disaster onto other countries in this case China.
https://www.nytimes.com/2020/02/15/business/china-coronavirus-lockdown.html
To Tame Coronavirus, Mao-Style Social Control Blankets China
They're still making fun of the lockdown in Febuary, at that rate the death number is already very high
To Tame Coronavirus, Mao-Style Social Control Blankets China
They're still making fun of the lockdown in Febuary, at that rate the death number is already very high
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What the feck is this? This belongs in some other thread.
Even WHO was giving wrong advice upto February iirc.
Has there really been testing at Heathrow? Before the UK lockdown, my parents were quarantined off Brazil for 9 days, to be subsequently flown back to UK on a Foreign Office chartered flight (with help from the cruise line). There was at least one positive case on a very small ship hence the quarantine.
When they disembarked the ship in Recife, they were taken via police convoy to the airport, literally onto the tarmac next to the steps of the plane. They were not allowed any contact whatsoever with the local people there. Upon arrival at Heathrow, there was literally nothing: no checks, no segregation, no advice, no enforced UK quarantine. All passengers were allowed to make their own onward travel arrangements (local flights had been arranged, but these were not compulsory). My parents took a 12-seater minibus from a Chauffeur company and sat, fully maxed-up on the rear row. They told the company in advance that they were returning from an infected ship, and the company was great. Driver had his own PPE and had no contact with my parents.
TLDR: Heathrow were doing feck all with known potential cases as little as 3 weeks ago. I can't see them having been doing much more any time prior to that.
As usual I think the truth is somewhere in between both arguments. But ultimately the western governments are still responsible for the way they've managed it in their own countries, because they still had the opportunity to react much earlier than they did.
Cheltenham going ahead was crazy. And that's not even hindsight, I thought that at the time, couldn't believe it
Here in Wales, the government has already decided that the lockdown will 'definitely' be extended.
The same China who were telling people there was no clear evidence of human-to-human transmission of the novel #coronavirus (2019-nCoV)?
My bad. Can't count on my fingers.
The virus finding its way into humans.
No, it's sad and untrue
Funny, sad and true.
Potentially silly question but how do I know if my mask is single use or can be washed and reused?
I think I said 'efforts were being made', they were in the absence of any scientific test being available taking temperatures. However inadequate the governments in the West were attempting coherent responses given what was available immediately and of course hoping that it would be contained in Wuhan and contact tracing would be effective.
I don't think I'm attempting to claim that any of it has been effective but to say that the West did bugger all until March isn't accurate either.
We've been on cruises, it must have been terrifying and completely disorganised whatever country they eventually landed on. Pass The Parcel hasn't been helpful at all and the unnecessary deaths will never be attributable or fully counted.
The massive cover up early in January that caused the pandemic
Tends to say so on the packaging
Nearly another 1000 people died today.
The number is scary.
The number is scary.