SARS CoV-2 coronavirus / Covid-19 (No tin foil hat silliness please)

I think the second home issue is several-fold. First it reminds people of the fact that some folk are rich enough to keep a second residence in a scenic area, which is another irritation for those who are having to stay in far less comfortable accommodation in cities.

Secondly, right from the beginning the authorities in more rural areas have been begging people not to come to their second homes just because they can - it increases the number of people having to use scarcer local resources and worst of all, if they need healthcare the local hospitals may not be able to cope with extra numbers. It's not just people who own two homes, as weeks ago we saw people going up to Scotland and parking up in their caravans and camper vans. Luckily that was stopped quickly by closing the car parks in those rural areas and also the caravan and camping sites were soon shut.

Thirdly (as other have pointed out), it gives a very bad message when you see public figures/members of governments choosing to move out to their second homes. People in authority have to lead by example in times like these, even if it's against their own self-interest to do so.
 
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@Brwned in the Imperial modelling, what percentage of infected do they imagine require hospital attention and ICU attention?


They don't specify ICU attention but these are the figures for hospitalisation:

gCkXrVw.png


I'd imagine if they're using the early Chinese figures then they'd be using the same 5% ICU figure from this.

The assumption seems to have been that 4.4% of infections result in hospitalisation and just under 1.47% of infections require critical care (defined as at least invasive mechanical ventilation):

The age-stratified proportion of infections that require hospitalisation and the infection fatality ratio (IFR) were obtained from an analysis of a subset of cases from China (12) . These estimates were corrected for non-uniform attack rates by age and when applied to the GB population result in an IFR of 0.9% with 4.4% of infections hospitalised (Table 1). We assume that 30% of those that are hospitalised will require critical care (invasive mechanical ventilation or ECMO) based on early reports from COVID-19 cases in the UK, China and Italy (Professor Nicholas Hart, personal communication). Based on expert clinical opinion, we assume that 50% of those in critical care will die and an age-dependent proportion of those that do not require critical care die (calculated to match the overall IFR). We calculate bed demand numbers assuming a total duration of stay in hospital of 8 days if critical care is not required and 16 days (with 10 days in ICU) if critical care is required.

https://www.imperial.ac.uk/media/im...-College-COVID19-NPI-modelling-16-03-2020.pdf

The study does promise to update these assumptions in the light of new data, but I don't know if they've done so as of yet.
 
Forget china. Look at south korea, japan, singapore. Good government can mitigate the outbreak.

It's not wizardry. Their government instruct, citizen follow, results shows.

Nobody has the magic formula, it's just a collection of small things done right.

No, don`t forget China. It`s the most secretive and dictatorial government in the world and more so than North Korea because its economic power allows it be part of the international business community. No mass graves? They don`t need them - they have cremation as is common in many countries in Asia. They need more urns and more urns have been noted. The great firewall of China is their friend - the internet in some ways is completely unrecognisable in China from our perspective.

Another secretive country that is generally a democracy although it has some surprisingly authoritarian aspects when you know its legal system and live here is Japan.

Forget Japan among the exemplars - if you believe Japan deserves to be listed with the other countries re COVID-19 for good government that includes transparency of policy and information, a health system whose experts are given media freedom to speak openly. politicians being truthful and not concealing data and genuine means to get this pandemic under control such as increasing testing and then isolation of the
infected, then you are very much mistaken.

I`m in Tokyo and I expect there to be many more cases here and everywhere except the most isolated parts of the archipelago that is Japan. Apparently `now` the numbers for all Japan are over 4,000 with under 100 deaths. And guess what? They`re increasing in a linear way according to the national govt`s data fudgers, er statisticians. So Japan doesn`t have exponential increases. Apparently.

The answer to all this nonsense about putting Japan with responsible countries is simple - criminally low testing numbers. The policy is to refuse testing except if you have pneumonia. There are exceptions now such as Japanese nationals returning from abroad. There are a few exceptions in some prefectures.

The Tokyo Olympics were the biggest stand-alone reason this shit-show has been allowed to develop but of course medical cartels, media cartels, a disgraceful right wing government and a shambles of opposition parties, lack of an active participation in political discussion and debate among the Japanese public, in some cases a sense of superiority that Japanese somehow wouldn`t have any real problem with the virus because they are `cleaner`, etc, have actively repressed responsible measures.

Surprise, surprise - increasing clusters have formed around so-called entertainment areas commonly located throughout urban Japan near major railway stations. The sex industry there often functions as quickie sex breaks for male company employees during the day and then after work. . Now we hear the virus is increasingly showing up in a younger demographic - unsurprising considering the complacency that set in during the latter part of February.

Of course it is also connected to international travel with Japanese just like other countries` people refusing to change or cancel their plans. Less understandable to me is why a significant number of them decided to get their jollies in Italy, Spain and France despite having earlier information on COVID-19`s rampant spread there.

Grossly deflated case numbers because of minimal testing caused many in Tokyo especially to lower their guard unlike in January and most of February although some attractions and bars, cafes and clubs stayed shuttered.

In the middle of March I was astonished to see university students over-crowding popular areas and then at night time when coming home from work, young and not so young company employees, many drunk, laughing and spraying their saliva around on crowded Yamanote Loop Line stations. This is the main Tokyo line that runs around the city. That scene is not unusual in normal times but it shouldn`t have gone on the way it did in these times.

Elderly people were riding subways and trains for something to do during the daytime because a number of community centres for the elderly had closed amidst earlier virus fears. As March progressed those with more money started taking weekday and weekend trips on the lines leading from Tokyo to the surrounding prefectures. The Tokyo Olympics hadn`t been cancelled yet.

People staying home last weekend and this present weekend in response to the Tokyo Governor`s call - credit to many Tokyoites for doing that - cannot reverse the damage done not only from the carelessness and complacency that set in but the basic reason for it. And that is the Japan`s Government`s refusal to conduct any real testing which would enable them to isolate quickly and track cases and potential cases. And of course now as the more realistic figures although highly likely under-reported are coming out in the unique Japanese linear way instead of exponential way, another `surprise` is the inability to track a significant number of cases and potential cases.

Japan is not an outlier - it`s an out and out liar.
 
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Iran’s death curve is bizarre (if you believe the numbers, which I don’t). They were one of the first countries to be hit hard but their deaths have plateaued around the 100-150 mark for weeks now.
 
I think the second home issue is several-fold. First it reminds people of the fact that some folk are rich enough to keep a second residence in a scenic area, which is another irritation for those who are having to stay in far less comfortable accommodation in cities.

Secondly, right from the beginning the authorities in more rural areas have been begging people not to come to their second homes just because they can - it increases the number of people having to use scarcer local resources and worst of all, if they need healthcare the local hospitals may not be able to cope with extra numbers. It's not just people who own two homes, as weeks ago we saw people going up to Scotland and parking up in their caravans and camper vans. Luckily that was stopped quickly by closing the car parks in those rural areas and also the caravan and camping sites were soon shut.

Thirdly (as other have pointed out), it gives a very bad message when you see public figures/members of governments choosing to move out to their second homes. People in authority have to lead by example in times like these, even if it's against their own self-interest to do so.
Exactly.
 
I saw this on social media a few days back and it couldn’t be more true.

“The virus doesn’t move, people move it. We stop moving, the virus stops moving, the virus dies. It’s that simple”

We have bred a generation of cnuts. Absolute cnuts that don’t think that rules apply to them.

We are heading for a full lockdown in the UK because the minority are a selfish bunch of cnuts that don’t think that rules apply to them.

Just stay at home for a few fecking weeks! Why is it so hard to understand?

I doubt there'll be a full lockdown. Hancock is just using fear tactics, along with the threat of collective punishment. Collective punishment was used in schools when I was a kid. Not sure if it still is.
One kid misbehaves, and the whole class stays behind. The threat of collective punishment is supposed to make all of us police the situation ourselves.
Exercise is just as important to health as social distancing.
 
I'd hope that people could be clever enough to travel to a second home and take zero risks. I guess maybe I have more faith in humanity than they probably deserve judging by this thread.

Then your car breaks down or you have an accident on the way and have to involve the emergency services. The rule is deliberately made simple as people would look for any excuse otherwise.
 
It's not a 'punishment' it would be a failure to ensure the drop in the number of cases that would allow us to ease measures.

Imbeciles sitting drinking beer in the park, sunbathing, driving to the beach and nd all manner of things we saw yesterday spread the virus and the more they do it the longer we're all inside.

And what % is that of the population? It's a totally insignificant part of the population blown totally out of all proportion.
 
That's exactly what my mother says and she's a famed drama queen.

We might not be able to travel abroad for a few years as often as we did before and the Government will need to support small businesses that might be in financial difficulty since the lockdown occurred but humans are extremely resourceful and most people in our society will be determined to kick start the country again. It might actually give us a kick up the arse to respect what we have.
Indeed. Nothing will be remotely the same for the next 2 years at least but we will gradually get back to normal and it will save lives.
 
I saw this on social media a few days back and it couldn’t be more true.

“The virus doesn’t move, people move it. We stop moving, the virus stops moving, the virus dies. It’s that simple”

We have bred a generation of cnuts. Absolute cnuts that don’t think that rules apply to them.

We are heading for a full lockdown in the UK because the minority are a selfish bunch of cnuts that don’t think that rules apply to them.

Just stay at home for a few fecking weeks! Why is it so hard to understand?

No we're not. If we're heading for full lockdown (I'd doubt it) it's because the government wish it to be so. Not because some people are laying on the some grass, whilst observing social distancing.
 
And what % is that of the population? It's a totally insignificant part of the population blown totally out of all proportion.



In reality it doesn't have to be a large percentage of the population to have a disproportionate impact.
 
Bit over the top. There is a small fraction of the UK population ignoring the rules and there always will be, that’s how society works.

We currently have the most selfish society that’s ever walked the earth. This virus has shown us that.

The police can’t police everyone, they should make an example of some of these idiot and lock some of them up for a week and start really fining them. When will they learn, probably only when they know someone who does.
 
Iran’s death curve is bizarre (if you believe the numbers, which I don’t). They were one of the first countries to be hit hard but their deaths have plateaued around the 100-150 mark for weeks now.

I take numbers out of authoritarian states with a pinch of salt. The autocrats who run some of these countries obviously have the luxury of suppressing data to avoid looking inept and create the facade of stability. That said, the likes of South Korea, Japan, and others have also been stabilizing so there's a good chance Iran wouldn't be too far behind them.
 


In reality it doesn't have to be a large percentage of the population to have a disproportionate impact.


Yes people in the UK go to parks more than people in France, Italy and Spain because the government has allowed this as long as social distancing is observed.
 


In reality it doesn't have to be a large percentage of the population to have a disproportionate impact.

You have to shut parks and public gardens. If they're open and the sun's shining, some people will see that as an invitation. They acted quickly to shut all possible public gathering-places in Italy when it became obvious that some people were still going to them to socialise unnecessarily.
 
We currently have the most selfish society that’s ever walked the earth. This virus has shown us that.

The police can’t police everyone, they should make an example of some of these idiot and lock some of them up for a week and start really fining them. When will they learn, probably only when they know someone who does.

Bordering on hysterical. Voice of a nation there.
 
I totally agree that any death is a tragedy and we should do our utmost to preserve life. This is also not about wanting to go back to the pub or go to the cinema. I could quite easily shelve all those unimportant things.

This is about having a life to lead after this (which in turn will save thousands of lives in itself due to significantly more people being able to feed their kids) 60% of business will fail if this goes on longer than short term. Do you even consider what world that would leave us with?

I have 2 neices who will miss out on a significant part of their education. Do you understand the implications of this further down the line?

Does anyone really understand the mental health aspect?

It's all very well talking about funding an NHS, but if no one can pay tax then who is going to fund it? Another country who has the same problem?

People seem to think that without lockdown until there is a vaccine that this disease is going to kill millions,l. It's simply not true and never has been. Yes, you get isolated sad cases and I feel the greatest sympathy

At some point caution becomes counter productive and won't only fail to protect the NHS and save lives, but do the total opposite.
Shocking post! :eek:

You can't possibly be serious!? What do you suggest we do - just ignore the problem and let it run rampant?

Your nieces' schoolwork can't possibly be more important than people's lives.
 
Yes people in the UK go to parks more than people in France, Italy and Spain because the government has allowed this as long as social distancing is observed.

Right. But in a context where you're talking about the "collective punishment" of people, that's relevant. You already have more leniency than other countries as is, so when you ask what % of the population we're referring to the answer is "more than in other countries who are facing the same circumstances". Your country as a whole is more lax in this regard. So I'm not sure why you'd frame it as being threatened when you're actually being given the opportunity to avoid having to follow the same harsher restrictions.
 
I take numbers out of authoritarian states with a pinch of salt. The autocrats who run some of these countries obviously have the luxury of suppressing data to avoid looking inept and create the facade of stability. That said, the likes of South Korea, Japan, and others have also been stabilizing so there's a good chance Iran wouldn't be too far behind them.
Japan is on a supposedly linear rise. Of course since the Olympics were cancelled. I really hope it is some miraculous exception but I doubt it for the reasons given in my previous post. Japan is a warning sign of severely limited testing equals severely limited information.
 
Right. But in a context where you're talking about the "collective punishment" of people, that's relevant. You already have more leniency than other countries as is, so when you ask what % of the population we're referring to the answer is "more than in other countries who are facing the same circumstances". Your country as a whole is more lax in this regard. So I'm not sure why you'd frame it as being threatened when you're actually being given the opportunity to avoid having to follow the same harsher restrictions.

The UK has more relaxed rules than some countries and harsher rules than others.

Just because our lockdown isn't as draconian as France, Italy and Spain doesn't mean that Matt Hancock isn't slyly threatening the public when he brings up the prospect of a stricter lockdown on what is coincidentally the first day of fine weather we've had all year. It's a distracting and dangerous message.
 
Shocking post! :eek:

You can't possibly be serious!? What do you suggest we do - just ignore the problem and let it run rampant?

Your nieces' schoolwork can't possibly be more important than people's lives.

Also, for the vast majority of kids it won't make enough of a difference. It will for those sadly, who live in a tough home environment or those who need additional support.

But the vast majority of kids will be fine. In fact, parents should be using this as an opportunity to get actively involved into their learning and more importantly helping them develop into more decent human beings - a responsibility many seem to neglect.
 
Is there anything to this? He's showing that most facemasks won't stop small droplets getting through except for the N95 masks but he's using an aerosol and I have no clue how and aerosol compares to human breath. I can't find the original with sound either.

 
Shocking post! :eek:

You can't possibly be serious!? What do you suggest we do - just ignore the problem and let it run rampant?

Your nieces' schoolwork can't possibly be more important than people's lives.

Do you want keep the nation shut in doors from now until we get a vaccine? Which is probably a year to 18 months away.

If you don't, then we all need to calm it and a have a sensible discussion about how we restart the economy and return some liberty until we get a vaccine.
 
I think the second home issue is several-fold. First it reminds people of the fact that some folk are rich enough to keep a second residence in a scenic area, which is another irritation for those who are having to stay in far less comfortable accommodation in cities.

Secondly, right from the beginning the authorities in more rural areas have been begging people not to come to their second homes just because they can - it increases the number of people having to use scarcer local resources and worst of all, if they need healthcare the local hospitals may not be able to cope with extra numbers. It's not just people who own two homes, as weeks ago we saw people going up to Scotland and parking up in their caravans and camper vans. Luckily that was stopped quickly by closing the car parks in those rural areas and also the caravan and camping sites were soon shut.

Thirdly (as other have pointed out), it gives a very bad message when you see public figures/members of governments choosing to move out to their second homes. People in authority have to lead by example in times like these, even if it's against their own self-interest to do so.


Dreading next weekend , Bangor hospital in North Wales covers all of Anglesey and a huge part of North Wales mainland . No doubt there will be loads down for a nice little Easter break . The hospital staff must be dreading it too.
 
Is there anything to this? He's showing that most facemasks won't stop small droplets getting through except for the N95 masks but he's using an aerosol and I have no clue how and aerosol compares to human breath. I can't find the original with sound either.



They're designed to be breathable. They're only ever doing to stop big globs of spit.
 
Do you want keep the nation shut in doors from now until we get a vaccine? Which is probably a year to 18 months away.

If you don't, then we all need to calm it and a have a sensible discussion about how we restart the economy and return some liberty until we get a vaccine.

What are you going on about nation shut? Nobody is saying close everything down for 18 months. But the lockdown measures need to be in place for atleast a few months and opened up little by little. It will help the NHS massively and it will save lives most importantly.

This could be gone way before a Vaccine is in production.
 
Japan is on a supposedly linear rise. Of course since the Olympics were cancelled. I really hope it is some miraculous exception but I doubt it for the reasons given in my previous post. Japan is a warning sign of severely limited testing equals severely limited information.

There should be a lot more deaths if just by Pneumonia. I think people and hospital staff would be talking about the cases coming in, wards would be shut off and staff in full PPE or many would be getting infected and dying in trying to treat them normally. It's a slow spread like the other Asian regions. Sure there was a reluctance while the Olympics was in question early on but if it was rife the evidence would be there out of the hospitals and the many that work there.
 
One confirmed covid death in my nans care home and a second taken to hospital suspected. Feels like a matter of time now
 
What are you going on about nation shut? Nobody is saying close everything down for 18 months. But the lockdown measures need to be in place for atleast a few months and opened up little by little. It will help the NHS massively and it will save lives most importantly.

This could be gone way before a Vaccine is in production.
I do understand the principle of what jmack is saying. It is easy for curtailed liberties to be extended and then kept in place when the situation returns to something resembling normality. The answer is for our countries to become serious about funding their health systems and pro-active in this area as new viruses that are highly contagious like this one are likely to become more of a problem rather than less of one.

Why? Open borders, mass movement of people into each others` countries legally and illegally, global business which won`t cease and the unforeseen effects of climate change warned about by a handful of scientists and activists. We need to be having serious conversations about society and what it needs, how to fund services fairly etc.
 
The US and UK are on the current trajectory owing to the lack of decisiveness by their respective governments and disobedience shown by a section of the population. As a result of this. Things will unfortunately get much much worse before they start to get better.

It really did not have to be this way :(
 
One confirmed covid death in my nans care home and a second taken to hospital suspected. Feels like a matter of time now

I'm sorry to hear that. Hopefully won't turn into a facility wide infection and your nan doesn't get it
 
Believe it or not I do agree with a short lockdown to give the NHS time to get as much capacity as it can.

However, a lockdown is an appalling way of dealing with the virus. It destroys our civil liberties and the economy simultaneously. Unless you're going to lockdown the country until we get a vaccine. (we're not) you need a exit strategy and a better way of dealing it.

I also don't agree with the prevailing mood that to question the lockdown is not being a team player or disrespecting the NHS. It's not. We do need be demanding our liberty back as soon as is possible.
As soon as possible yes, I agee. I’m going as stir crazy as anyone else, I’m coming into my 4th week here. But still, it needs to stay in place until it’s absolutely safe to relax.

most of the infection now seems to be community spread so that says it all really, we can’t afford another period, perhaps a second lockdown if it starts respreading
 
There should be a lot more deaths if just by Pneumonia. I think people and hospital staff would be talking about the cases coming in, wards would be shut off and staff in full PPE or many would be getting infected and dying in trying to treat them normally. It's a slow spread like the other Asian regions.
I get your point and I`m not saying the situation resembles that in Europe but Japan doesn`t generally do autopsies, if you think hospital staff are going to talk about cases coming in except to their co-workers and their very closest relatives then you clearly don`t know about the culture here, the public is going nowhere near the wards connected to COVID-19 patients especially because of the hoops they have to jump through to even ask face to face for a test, and even if COVID-19 is present in patients it is not likely to be recorded if there is another condition present.

I`m not hearing an increase in ambulances in my area but one of my co-workers who lives in a north-western ward of Tokyo is. The medical system here is far more secretive than that in many developed countries - for example many elderly people die of cancer without knowing they have it. Their families are told by the specialist and they can withhold that information. There will be no scruples about withholding COVID-19 information to cases and to the public alike.

There could very well be a big jump in cases here when other countries are getting a handle on it. I want to be proved incorrect.
 
Is there anything to this? He's showing that most facemasks won't stop small droplets getting through except for the N95 masks but he's using an aerosol and I have no clue how and aerosol compares to human breath. I can't find the original with sound either.

I mean there has to be a reason why professionals are using special masks and it's most likely that they offer better protection than just a piece of cloth. But that doesn't mean that the latter are necessarily useless.
 
There could very well be a big jump in cases here when other countries are getting a handle on it. I want to be proved incorrect.

That can happen and doesn't mean Japan is hiding it. It can creep through and eventually speed up and devastate an older demographic.