SARS CoV-2 coronavirus / Covid-19 (No tin foil hat silliness please)

I heard a pretty bleak take on why developing countries might not be hit too hard. They don’t typically live long enough, or have access to adequate healthcare to end up with a large elderly/frail population. So their mortality rate might be a hell of a lot lower than we will see in wealthier countries.
I live in a country like this and I'd say the assessment is spot on. However the younger generations are also full of people with terrible immune system, alcoholics, drug users and what not. Our older generation may not be hit so much but the 16-30 and 31-45 are the 2 age groups with most cases here.
 
Some of the stories leading in the UK now around the type of (low quality) items being desperately procured and politicians/members of the media not understanding the good reasons for delays in figures is strongly suggesting control being slowly lost and panic setting in. It feels the grip on following the science and experts is slipping.
 
@Regulus Arcturus Black

You're missing the mark for several reasons:

1. In the case of Norway, just as many corona cases came from Austria as from Italy. We literally couldn't have had the winter break in Oslo at a worse time, as it was deemed unsafe to travel to Austria one week after people came back(my boss was one of them). Had the break been a week earlier, then they would have missed the outbreak. A week later, and they wouldn't have been able to travel there.

2. Secondly, you overrate the significance of the Norwegian winter break. The Norwegian winter break is really just a thing for parents of kids between the age of 6 and 19. For everyone else it's just a normal week. I think most of the people who traveled to Italy and Austria during that time did it regardless of the "winter break". It's basically viewed as a "second easter", because the weather is nicer in the mountains down south. A lot of people will also dodge the winter break week(s) because prices may jump during that time.

3. The Norwegian winter break is technically 2 weeks, not 1. In order for the country to not "shut down", one half of the country will have their vacation one week, and the other half the next.

Bottom line: Sweden hasn't been more unlucky than Norway. They just chose to do their own thing, and it seems like it didn't work(though it might change over time of course)

3) Ditto in Sweden OF COURSE but over a month. Our biggest area (Stockholm) had it in the Italy horror week.

2) Semester week for schools in an area of almost 1.4 million Swedes isn’t overrating anything. That’s when the vast majority of people can travel.
Common sense stuff that though.

1) How many cases in Austria at end of Oslo week? More than the 1700 in Italy at the end of Stockholm week.
The answer to the question above @OleBoiii is ZERO. So yes, Oslo absolutely could have had it at a worse time, the following week, when Stockholm had theirs.
The UK and Ireland also had their in the week ending 23rd Feb.

So hell yes Stockholm got unlucky with the timing there, as did anywhere that had their half term or school semesters that week... it’s not even debatable man. Oslo most likely got a little lucky.

The thing is mate, it's an utterly incomplete data-set, so this idea some posters have of acting like this is the hunger games and trying to judge so early into this pandemic which country is coming out top is bizarre and quite frankly, disturbing.
We'll never know how many UK, Norwegian, Irish, French, Dutch citizens had this virus when the shit hit the fan in Italy. It could be the case that the UK already had 40,000 people walking around like an uncontrollable ticking time bomb.
 
Last edited:


Magic: The Gathering have had an unfortunately named card in the printers and were unable to stop it in time. This is going to fetch big bucks.
 
Lack of testing... Wait for it...

Bit simplistic IMO. Some countries are behind the curve regarding testing. Others moved more aggressively to stop international flights and domestic travel and are seeing the impact of that.

Africa is not a country of course, but I'm choosing to believe that countries that managed the Ebola outbreak impressively haven't lost all that learning in the space of 9 months.
 
Hancock’s briefing is pretty good about ramping up testing, but boy does it feel a week late. They lost control of this story completely.
 
What puzzles me is that if testing is so important why is Japan apparently doing so well? There seems to be too much guesswork being passed off as fact around the world. Rather like we are now being told that face masks might not be as Beneficial as we were led to believe. I do have this suspicion that when it’s all over there will be an awful lot of if only we had known that

The WHO are assessing whether the masks are more effective than they had previously thought, rather than less. Their advice until now has been that healthy people don't need to wear masks, but new evidence is suggesting they should revise that.

Japan's likely to be a latecomer and another potential political scandal rather than a shining light. They've seen the number of daily cases double in the last few days and there's been a notable spike after the Olympics cancellation. In the two weeks prior to the announcement, cases increased from 600 to 1,200. In the week since then cases increased to 2,200 and are growing rapidly. It's because they were doing so few tests that things seemed so rosy.

Tokyo reported 63 new infections on Saturday, a record single-day increase that brought the total toll in the capital to 362. Japan has confirmed 1,525 infections across the country, excluding cases on the Diamond Princess cruise ship in Yokohama.

A sharp rise in cases this week prompted Yuriko Koike, the city’s governor, to urge residents to stay at home this weekend and warn of a potential lockdown of Tokyo for the first time.

People appeared to be heeding her warning for now as unseasonal heavy snow in the city kept residents inside this homes on Sunday, while major department stores and malls were closed for the weekend.

“There is a need for everyone to share a sense of urgency,” said Satoshi Hori, one of Japan’s leading experts on infection control and a professor at Juntendo University. “But people are becoming tired of exercising restraint.”

Shinzo Abe, Japan’s prime minister, pledged on Saturday to unveil an economic package of “unprecedented scale” within 10 days that will include cash handouts, tax relief and measures aimed at protecting the millions of small and medium-sized businesses that employ about 90 per cent of Japan’s workforce. But this was after weeks of not declaring a national emergency.

https://www.ft.com/content/194d488d-952a-41bc-8a96-0cd67e2f3b52

...

But Abe's proposal to send two masks to each household attracted outrage and mockery online Wednesday, with the hashtag "Abe's mask" and "screw your two masks" trending on Twitter.

Many felt the move was lackluster and would not go into effect fast enough to have a chance at curbing the spread of the virus, with masks not due to be distributed until the end of the month. Others dubbed the policy "Abenomask policy" as satirical memes showing well-known cartoon characters sharing one mask between four family members popped up online.

...

On Wednesday, medical experts warned that Japan's healthcare system would not be able to bear the strain if coronavirus infections continued to spread.

A government panel warned that though Japan has not seen an explosive increase in infections so far, hospitals and medical clinics in Tokyo, Aichi, Kanagawa, Osaka and Hyogo were increasingly stretched and that "drastic countermeasures need to be taken as quickly as possible."

https://edition.cnn.com/2020/04/02/asia/japan-coronavirus-shinzo-abe-masks-hnk-intl/index.html
 
1) How many cases in Austria at end of Oslo week? More than the 1700 in Italy at the end of Stockholm week.

There were nearly 600 norwegians that came back from Austria and tested positive. How many they infected I do not know. I have not seen any numbers from Italy. Without these ski resorsts we propably would have been able to trace and isolate most infected.

As for Norway there is a lot of pressure and talk about opening schools after eastern. I think that might be very dangerous, due to the fact that in Norway we have a very limited amount of respirators. If we get a big wave we will be in a large bed of turds. But this is all unknown.

For myself I am a bit anxious about schools repoening. I am a aingle dad, alone with my kid. It would be horrible if he got infected there, then infected me and I then had to leave him with some other family while I were at a hospital. I guess many people would keep their children at home anyways. Everyone says children are safe but I am not so sure we know too much about that either. I hope the schools stay closed but vulnerable children get the possibity to go to school only.
 
I’m positive for Covid19 as of yesterday. I’ve been dealing with so many patients recently that any one of them may have given it to me. I’ve worn a (surgical) mask every single time I saw a patient, wore gloves, asked them to look the opposite direction while I take bloods from their arm.

I’m feeling pretty damn rough. The headache is nauseating and constant. The dry cough has become more frequent. I’ve bought a pulse oximetry device that should arrive today as that’s the best indicator of when you’re starting to go downhill.

Our hospital was about to abolish “specialities” from next week too. Everyone becomes a Covid doctor and assigned a random ward every week.
There was a meeting on Tuesday that I missed that said that the hospital are expecting 150 to a 1000 Covid patients to be admitted within the next month or so. Shits getting real in Wales (although the Newport area seems to be the worst hit in the UK going by “per capita” or something like that).

Hope you get better soon. Praying for you brother.
 
Bit simplistic IMO. Some countries are behind the curve regarding testing. Others moved more aggressively to stop international flights and domestic travel and are seeing the impact of that.

Africa is not a country of course, but I'm choosing to believe that countries that managed the Ebola outbreak impressively haven't lost all that learning in the space of 9 months.

Was it not a ebola outbreak in february even? Seems to remember the WHO talked about it in the early corona updates.
 
I'm completely illiterate when it comes to economics and have no illusions on that front but how is the UK government finding this money to wipe off the NHS debt AND pay for the massive increase in Universal credit? Genuine question. For years I've been hearing that there is no magic money tree and that austerity is necessary etc. What happens when this is hopefully all over in 6-12 months time and the debt has gone up massively?
 
I'm completely illiterate when it comes to economics and have no illusions on that front but how is the UK government finding this money to wipe off the NHS debt AND pay for the massive increase in Universal credit? Genuine question. For years I've been hearing that there is no magic money tree and that austerity is necessary etc. What happens when this is hopefully all over in 6-12 months time and the debt has gone up massively?
This is a once in 10 years event, most governments budget for this with the assumption that they'll have another 10 years to prepare for the next event. Now if another novel virus were to hit next year, then we'd be in trouble.
 


Magic: The Gathering have had an unfortunately named card in the printers and were unable to stop it in time. This is going to fetch big bucks.

I just googled those cards, never heard of them but just seen a lotus flower card for sale for £12k!!! £12,000 for a card!?
 
Was it not a ebola outbreak in february even? Seems to remember the WHO talked about it in the early corona updates.

The main outbreak kicked off in the latter half of 2018, however the response was very urgent across the continent, so it for the most part was confined to Eastern Congo and surrounding areas.

There have been a few hot spots where it's re-emerged, but nothing that hasn't been contained to date. Think that has been dealt with successfully.
 
Not satisfied with failing at their first and second targets they've now thought it wise to quadruple it to 100k. It's as if they're hoping a quick newsheadline will confuse people.
 
I'm completely illiterate when it comes to economics and have no illusions on that front but how is the UK government finding this money to wipe off the NHS debt AND pay for the massive increase in Universal credit? Genuine question. For years I've been hearing that there is no magic money tree and that austerity is necessary etc. What happens when this is hopefully all over in 6-12 months time and the debt has gone up massively?

Every employed person will be paying an extra £100 a month to cover this.
 
Watching these government press conferences, does anyone really get the impression that they are finding time in their excessively busy days to fit in a press conference?
To me, this feels like the main event. This is what they are working towards. To be able to diffuse the blame and shift responsibility.
 
This is a once in 10 years event, most governments budget for this with the assumption that they'll have another 10 years to prepare for the next event. Now if another novel virus were to hit next year, then we'd be in trouble.

no-one budgeted for this.
 
Thats the really frightening thing. If current thinking is right and it’s all down to testing and social distancing then with such limited resources god help Africa if it takes hold because from what we have seen so far all nations have been very insular In their approach.
North Korea as well... Dread to think what's actually going on there

Think they have said they have no cases

Also think they said they had developed a cure

Rocket man's probably trying to weaponise it
 
Watching these government press conferences, does anyone really get the impression that they are finding time in their excessively busy days to fit in a press conference?
To me, this feels like the main event. This is what they are working towards. To be able to diffuse the blame and shift responsibility.

When you see that Johnson has rehired his campaign team from the last Election to run the Coronavirus messaging, it gives you a sad indication of what the priorities with these press conferences are.
 
Every employed person will be paying an extra £100 a month to cover this.

I think they will be looking to hit companies hard initially... Saying the government bailed out business now business has to repay the country

And self employed will probably see taxes brought more in line with paye

Almost certainly some increase in vat or income tax as well I guess but as I say I think they will look to business first
 
When you see that Johnson has rehired his campaign team from the last Election to run the Coronavirus messaging, it gives you a sad indication of what the priorities with these press conferences are.

I didn't know that, but it sums up this government well.
 
I'm completely illiterate when it comes to economics and have no illusions on that front but how is the UK government finding this money to wipe off the NHS debt AND pay for the massive increase in Universal credit? Genuine question. For years I've been hearing that there is no magic money tree and that austerity is necessary etc. What happens when this is hopefully all over in 6-12 months time and the debt has gone up massively?
We’ll all be paying for it once this is all over.
Paye and NI deductions will go through the roof. A few have said it in this thread but the financial catastrophe that will follow this will be massive.
 
Not to mention, as @africanspur keeps saying, there’s a huge potential for unseen mortality as this distracts attention/resources from the usual, more mundane causes of death. Which could see their mortality increasing significantly while COVID hits its peak.

There is no doubt of this. Most surgeries post-poned, programmed consultations cancelled, in some of my islands Primary Care centers have completely shut down. Social workers are not visiting children at risk and many elderly have been somewhat abandoned. Domestic violence and suicide is also a serious concern.

I think the worst of all in terms of mid-term mortality will be the capacity of providing decent care for oncologic patients. We didn't exactly stopped our cancer hospitals, but, with all the precautions that must be taken, everything happens a lot slower and eventually a lot of professionals will have to go through quarantines due to the immunocompromised nature of most of their patients. The capacity for response of these hospitals will undoubtedly be reduced.

At the end of the day, they may not technically be Covid-19 deaths and not enter the statistics, but in practical terms they are victims of this pandemic. The fact they will not be included in Covid-19 lethality rates provides little comfort even if you just want to know how many people are dying of Covid-19.
 
WHO's advice on masks must be seen with a grain of salt (as anything they say, but in this case for a very specific reason).

There are not enough stocks of masks around, specially in countries that do not have the habit of using them. So, a generalized advice to wear masks would not be implementable, and could even be counter-productive, as then there wouldn't be enough for the more specific high-risk situations.

This applies to national health authorities too, I'm almost sure that's the reason they are not recommended in Portugal. They are just being pragmatic about it.
 
@TheReligion @jojojo We have the first the figures in France for care homes, at least 884 people died, these figures are from 7400 out of 10600 care homes so the figures will be higher.
 
A friend of mine once said to me that you can bullshit your way through your entire life with a posh British accent.

It has an innate ability to polish a turd.

Roll it in glitter more like.

And then convince people that foreigners are after their glittery turds.
 
WHO's advice on masks must be seen with a grain of salt (as anything they say, but in this case for a very specific reason).

There are not enough stocks of masks around, specially in countries that do not have the habit of using them. So, a generalized advice to wear masks would not be implementable, and could even be counter-productive, as then there wouldn't be enough for the more specific high-risk situations.

This applies to national health authorities too, I'm almost sure that's the reason they are not recommended in Portugal. They are just being pragmatic about it.
Would those neck gaiters that you can wear over your face help any?