SARS CoV-2 coronavirus / Covid-19 (No tin foil hat silliness please)

Regulus Arcturus Black said:
Couple of things here @Uncle Bob and @OleBoiii

Report coming out on Svt today that a large proportion of those who have died are from the Somali community. Living in apartments with several generations and theories that a Friday prayer at Mosque kicked it all off a few weeks back. Järla is the hardest hit area in all of Sweden, 90% in that area from an immigrant background.

It fecking awful :( Here's a report from a few days ago, https://www.garoweonline.com/en/new...of-coronavirus-in-sweden-than-any-other-group. Think Svt will be releasing their report later.

As for Tegnell getting fired, first off Stockholm's sportlov (sport school holdiday) was the very week it all kicked off in Italy, when sportlov started, there was just 229 cases in all of Italy, by the end of sportlov they had 1700 and it was going up like a NASA rocket.

As you guys both know, Swedes use that week to go skiing in the alps, we know for certain that Stockholm brought home shitloads of Covid-19 from that week, so who knows where Sweden, Denmark and Norway were on the 2nd March with regards to total numbers of infected. Could people really have predicted that Italy would explode like that? Maybe? But surely you see how unlucky that week and timing was for Stockholm?

Secondly, Tegnell isn't a one man show, the entire folkhälsomyndighet are making the calls, they actually brought out the big chief the other day due to comments like yours because he was flabbergasted that people who treating it like a small firm with one bloke calling the shots.

Will lots of people die in Sweden, yes, but they will in Denmark too by the end of this (and Germany, Belgium Holland etc etc etc etc), no question. Norway, might just have done enough early enough to chase it down, but time will tell, I'm extremely interested to see what happens there after lockdown and the Norwegian plan. Fingers crossed. People are still looking so short term at this and the numbers, it'll likely be going for months and months.
Click to expand...

No more unlucky than pretty much every other European country. Almost all of them had school half-term that week and thousands upon thousands of people headed to the Alps. It was people returning from ski trips in the Alps that seeded most of Europe. Certainly that’s what happened in the Uk/Ireland. If anything, Sweden may have been slightly less affected as you don’t have to leave Sweden to go on a ski holiday (I think?) unlike countries that are further south/less mountainous.
 
Pogue Mahone said:
No more unlucky than pretty much every other European country. Almost all of them had school half-term that week and thousands upon thousands of people headed to the Alps. It was returning ski trips from the Alps that seeded most of Europe. Certainly that’s what happened in the Uk/Ireland. If anything, Sweden may have been slightly less affected as you don’t have to leave Sweden to go on a ski holiday (I think?) unlike countries that are further south/less mountainous.
Click to expand...

Well you don't have to leave Sweden Pogue but we're big skiers here, compared to Ireland it's dwarfed obviously. It's not even called half term here, it's called "Sport Semester" as it supposed to be a week to take the kids doing winter sports.

200 000 Swedens travel to the alps every winter @Pogue Mahone (with the majority being in those February school holidays).

You're bang on that ski trips kicked it all off for all of Europe.
 
Last edited:
Pogue Mahone said:
No more unlucky than pretty much every other European country. Almost all of them had school half-term that week and thousands upon thousands of people headed to the Alps. It was people returning from ski trips in the Alps that seeded most of Europe. Certainly that’s what happened in the Uk/Ireland. If anything, Sweden may have been slightly less affected as you don’t have to leave Sweden to go on a ski holiday (I think?) unlike countries that are further south/less mountainous.
Click to expand...
Not being snippy here but immigrant communities such as the Somalis in Sweden may be lucky to have the welfare they get from a democratic socialist state like Sweden but they can hardly be compared to privileged European communities who go skiing as a matter of course. Many minorities in Sweden are refugees and it probably would be correct to assume that they might have been left out of the loop to some extent regarding the virus.

I'm not saying the Swedish authorities etc didn't give information but western countries with immigrant populations especially refugee ones need to do better in giving early and effective information in times like this.
 
ryansgirl said:
I'm not saying the Swedish authorities etc didn't give information but western countries with immigrant populations especially refugee ones need to do better in giving early and effective information in times like this.
Click to expand...

It's so tricky. The Swedish authorities now are having to defend themselves that they gave out information in Somali weeks back etc, but did it hit home? Did it reach the right people?
 
Regulus Arcturus Black said:
It's so tricky. The Swedish authorities now are having to defend themselves that they gave out information in Somali weeks back etc, but did it hit home? Did it reach the right people?
Click to expand...
even if it did you cant force people to obay it - we had a pub raided in england the other day because people were choosing to ignore all the advice for sure I dont think you can argue the government has not got the message over that pubs should be closed but people choose to ignore it
 
@Regulus Arcturus Black

Sweden hasn't been more unlucky when it comes to the ski trips. Many Norwegians came back from Italy and Austria with the corona virus. Those are very popular destinations in the winter for upper/upper middleclass people.

As for the problem of the virus spreading faster among immigrants: the same is true for Oslo right now :(
 
Regulus Arcturus Black said:
It's so tricky. The Swedish authorities now are having to defend themselves that they gave out information in Somali weeks back etc, but did it hit home? Did it reach the right people?
Click to expand...
I'm sure they did but just like other developed countries with refugees they need to co-ordinate better with community groups, identify leaders who can be the bridge in communicating etc.

About 15 years ago Australia started to take in more African refugees and some of those families especially ones with no Dad around because he had been killed or was stuck home unable to come to Australia, had struggles with knowing how to use Australian homes' equipment let alone how to participate in Aussie community life. This mostly happened in outer suburbs so they felt even more isolated. Buddy systems and community networks were set up to assist and it got better.
 
OleBoiii said:
@Regulus Arcturus Black

Sweden hasn't been more unlucky when it comes to the ski trips. Many Norwegians came back from Italy and Austria with the corona virus. Those are very popular destinations in the winter for upper/upper middleclass people.

As for the problem of the virus spreading faster among immigrants: the same is true for Oslo right now :(
Click to expand...

Regulus Arcturus Black said:
It's so tricky. The Swedish authorities now are having to defend themselves that they gave out information in Somali weeks back etc, but did it hit home? Did it reach the right people?
Click to expand...

Seconding what OleBoiii says. People in Norway are moneyed, and we certainly had a feck-ton of people bringing it home from skiing holidays.

The point about having information reach the (refugee) immigrant communities is deffo a big one. They're more vulnerable as they house more of the elder generation, and they also often have less of an understanding of germ theory than your average European. In addition they don't have the level of trust of authority and government that we do in Norway, and so they won't necessarily take it to heart. We've started printing up info in their own languages, in addition to designating persons from that culture to go around in the neighbourhoods and talking directly to them. Hopefully these measures will have an impact.
 
OleBoiii said:
@Regulus Arcturus Black

Sweden hasn't been more unlucky when it comes to the ski trips. Many Norwegians came back from Italy and Austria with the corona virus. Those are very popular destinations in the winter for upper/upper middleclass people.
Click to expand...

Not Sweden, I mean Stockholm in particular, Stockholm's half term was the week it went from "no problem" to "holy feck" in Italy. This for you too @Eriku as it was the point I was trying to make.

Oslo for example had their winter semester the week earlier, by the end of that week Italy had just 157 cases of Covid-19. By the end of Stockholm's winter week that had increased more than 10-fold to 1701.

So yes, definitely unlucky.

As I say, unless all European countries can say for certain how many cases of the virus they had on 1st March, it's almost impossible to compare anything at this point. This isn't about deaths & cases now, it'll be about deaths in 8 months.

I think Norway have done a cracking job for what it's worth and have a great chance of maybe keeping a hold of the situation and going to trace level. I don't think Sweden or Denmark have a chance and haven't since the start. Same goes for the UK, Ireland, Holland, Belgium etc etc. I hope everyone learns their lessons next time and locks out a country with an outbreak until they are certain it's under control.
 
Last edited:
sun_tzu said:
Why does Africa look relatively unaffected - you would have thought with inter generational living and some quite crowded conditions in cities that it would take hold quite quickly there?
Just behind the infection curve in timeline or mass under reporting (possibly due to lack of testing?) - or is there another reason (average age / demographic being lower?)
Click to expand...
because there is feck all testing IMO and only the more critical cases are reported. Many that are treated at home and again not tested aren't in the equation as well.

Generally the most usable data is from the countries that test the most and you have a larger excerpt.
 
Eriku said:
The point about having information reach the (refugee) immigrant communities is deffo a big one. They're more vulnerable as they house more of the elder generation, and they also often have less of an understanding of germ theory than your average European. In addition they don't have the level of trust of authority and government that we do in Norway, and so they won't necessarily take it to heart. We've started printing up info in their own languages, in addition to designating persons from that culture to go around in the neighbourhoods and talking directly to them. Hopefully these measures will have an impact.
Click to expand...

It's an absolute nightmare and so sad. I have a feeling this report from SVT is going to be a massive shock to us all about just how much that one area of Stockholm has been affected. :(
 
sun_tzu said:
Why does Africa look relatively unaffected - you would have thought with inter generational living and some quite crowded conditions in cities that it would take hold quite quickly there?
Just behind the infection curve in timeline or mass under reporting (possibly due to lack of testing?) - or is there another reason (average age / demographic being lower?)
Click to expand...

Kenya for example was very proactive. Even with only 3 cases, they did a lockdown. No one is able to enter the country.
Quarantined like 7,000 people so far.
 
redshaw said:
My point was the implication that now Spain has hit a plateau suddenly UK should be out of nowhere. I've shown in the figures 1-2 weeks ago Spain had a large increase day after day, that's where UK is at right now. It would be like me plotting the graph 1-2 weeks ago for Spain with the same headlines saying Spain should be plateauing at 300-500 deaths because this other country is now plateauing, that would be silly and it's what FT have done.
Click to expand...

That is because UK is not plateauing like Spain wasn't 1-2 weeks ago. Spain is plateauing now (due to % reduction) due to measures implemented. UK, even following a lower path is not assured that will plateau anytime because it will depend on their measures implemented and only future will tell. So we can't say that UK it will be plateauing. The author is saying that US and UK are at risk because they numbers in their 2 most infected areas are ramping up and for now nothing indicates that will plateau. Will need to wait till there is any simptoms

Or maybe I didn't understand what are you trying to tell me
 
FootballHQ said:
Yep. I'm amazed it's taken this long for the media as one to realise how important testing is. Criminal mass testing wasn't ready when we went into lockdown particuarly as Hancock actually said in the commons in mid January the U.K were ready with plenty of testing equipment!

Real insult very small % of NHS workers have been tested so far, nevermind general population.
Click to expand...

What puzzles me is that if testing is so important why is Japan apparently doing so well? There seems to be too much guesswork being passed off as fact around the world. Rather like we are now being told that face masks might not be as Beneficial as we were led to believe. I do have this suspicion that when it’s all over there will be an awful lot of if only we had known that
 
sun_tzu said:
Why does Africa look relatively unaffected - you would have thought with inter generational living and some quite crowded conditions in cities that it would take hold quite quickly there?
Just behind the infection curve in timeline or mass under reporting (possibly due to lack of testing?) - or is there another reason (average age / demographic being lower?)
Click to expand...

All of the above. But Africa is going to get hit bad. It won't take much before it's a massive crisis.
 
sun_tzu said:
Why does Africa look relatively unaffected - you would have thought with inter generational living and some quite crowded conditions in cities that it would take hold quite quickly there?
Just behind the infection curve in timeline or mass under reporting (possibly due to lack of testing?) - or is there another reason (average age / demographic being lower?)
Click to expand...


There are plenty of other killer deseases in Africa - so there hasn't ( yet ) been the same sense of outrage and fear that we've seen in Europe, USA, Australaia, etc.

Doesn't mean that COVID-19 won't eventually surpass them all in terms of death and economic destruction, but for now the main areas of infection appear to be those countries where it has been introduced by home visiting emigrants - look at the numbers for Francophone Africa here

https://africanarguments.org/2020/0...rica-tracker-how-many-cases-and-where-latest/

As for the future, my own opinion is that the economic fall out in Africa would set the continenet back generations, not years or even decades, if the spread can't be contained. And containment is about money and health infrasructure, two things which have always been in short supply for 99%+ Africans. There are certainly plans, good intenetions and even some experience looking at what has and continues to happen outside of Africa, but if you believe European, Asian and American Governments have been unable to contribute much to preventing where we all are now, try to think of even one single way that African Governements could do it better on such limited resources.

https://africanarguments.org/2020/0...-rests-on-two-things-markets-money-transfers/
 
4bars said:
That is because UK is not plateauing like Spain wasn't 1-2 weeks ago.

Or maybe I didn't understand what are you trying to tell me
Click to expand...

Yes, you've completely misunderstood. My whole point was Spain was in a upwards trajectory and not plateauing 1-2 weeks ago, not sure how it could be more clear but I'll leave it there.
 
Regulus Arcturus Black said:
Well you don't have to leave Sweden Pogue but we're big skiers here, compared to Ireland it's dwarfed obviously. It's not even called half term here, it's called "Sport Semester" as it supposed to be a week to take the kids doing winter sports.

200 000 Swedens travel to the alps every winter @Pogue Mahone (with the majority being in those February school holidays).

You're bang on that ski trips kicked it all off for all of Europe.
Click to expand...

I’ve spent many a week in the Alps myself over the years, before kids/knee knack curtailed my snowboarding career and the big resorts are teeming with people from all over Europe. No idea on numbers but it never seemed as though there were many more Swedes than any other nationality. For example, google tells me that 1.5 million Brits go skiing every year. The fact this kicked off in that region during peak ski season was a fecking disaster for everyone.

There are so many details about this pandemic that you wouldn’t believe if someone wrote it in a movie script. Here’s another cracker. When ITUs around the world are simultaneously deeply in the shit, they will start running out of the medicines most used in ITU. Guess the two regions in the world that manufacture more of these medicines than any other? China and the Lombardy region of Italy!
 
@Regulus Arcturus Black

You're missing the mark for several reasons:

1. In the case of Norway, just as many corona cases came from Austria as from Italy. We literally couldn't have had the winter break in Oslo at a worse time, as it was deemed unsafe to travel to Austria one week after people came back(my boss was one of them). Had the break been a week earlier, then they would have missed the outbreak. A week later, and they wouldn't have been able to travel there.

2. Secondly, you overrate the significance of the Norwegian winter break. The Norwegian winter break is really just a thing for parents of kids between the age of 6 and 19. For everyone else it's just a normal week. I think most of the people who traveled to Italy and Austria during that time did it regardless of the "winter break". It's basically viewed as a "second easter", because the weather is nicer in the mountains down south. A lot of people will also dodge the winter break week(s) because prices may jump during that time.

3. The Norwegian winter break is technically 2 weeks, not 1. In order for the country to not "shut down", one half of the country will have their vacation one week, and the other half the next.

Bottom line: Sweden hasn't been more unlucky than Norway. They just chose to do their own thing, and it seems like it didn't work(though it might change over time of course)
 
Full bodied red said:
As for the future, my own opinion is that the economic fall out in Africa would set the continenet back generations, not years or even decades, if the spread can't be contained. And containment is about money and health infrasructure, two things which have always been in short supply for 99%+ Africans. There are certainly plans, good intenetions and even some experience looking at what has and continues to happen outside of Africa, but if you believe European, Asian and American Governments have been unable to contribute much to preventing where we all are now, try to think of even one single way that African Governements could do it better on such limited resources.

https://africanarguments.org/2020/0...-rests-on-two-things-markets-money-transfers/
Click to expand...

Thats the really frightening thing. If current thinking is right and it’s all down to testing and social distancing then with such limited resources god help Africa if it takes hold because from what we have seen so far all nations have been very insular In their approach.
 
Virgil said:
Thats the really frightening thing. If current thinking is right and it’s all down to testing and social distancing then with such limited resources god help Africa if it takes hold because from what we have seen so far all nations have been very insular In their approach.
Click to expand...

I heard a pretty bleak take on why developing countries might not be hit too hard. They don’t typically live long enough, or have access to adequate healthcare to end up with a large elderly/frail population. So their mortality rate might be a hell of a lot lower than we will see in wealthier countries.
 
Pogue Mahone said:
I heard a pretty bleak take on why developing countries might not be hit too hard. They don’t typically live long enough, or have access to adequate healthcare to end up with a large elderly/frail population. So their mortality rate might be a hell of a lot lower than we will see in wealthier countries.
Click to expand...

That is bleak but in a perverse sort of way I hope it’s accurate.
 
When you think best case estimates on deaths were around 20k, we're already over 10% there. Hopefully things don't spiral and get anywhere near 200k which was the worst case scenario (on account of no lockdowns and everyone just moving freely).
 
sun_tzu said:
Why does Africa look relatively unaffected - you would have thought with inter generational living and some quite crowded conditions in cities that it would take hold quite quickly there?
Just behind the infection curve in timeline or mass under reporting (possibly due to lack of testing?) - or is there another reason (average age / demographic being lower?)
Click to expand...
Lack of testing... Wait for it...
 
You must log in or register to reply here.