SARS CoV-2 coronavirus / Covid-19 (No tin foil hat silliness please)

The president of the German Medical Association expects first schools to reopen in May while those in Corona hotspots will have to remain closed much longer. More interstingly, he claims that by Easter, Germany will have enough capacity to treat 5.6 million infected patients.

Edit: Seems he now longer holds that position. He is the chairman of the World Medical Association now.
He got promoted in the 5 minutes between your edits? Wow, he must be good.
 
Germans seem quite good at coronavirus.

That remains to be seen. But I saw a statistic today that gives me some cause for optimism. The current average occupancy rate of ICU beds in the German states is at 8% with 16% the highest individual number. And the number of ICUs is supposed to double in the next few weeks. I guess that is actually more relevant than cases and deaths going forward.

He got promoted in the 5 minutes between your edits? Wow, he must be good.

Hehe.

He is quite a prominent figure so I just went with the title he has had for years.
 
We've been through far, far worse than this. It's going to a difficult year and there is still a long way to go, but we will come out of it. In 10 years we will look back and remember this time but we won't still be rebuilding from it.

Not in recent times, we haven't. We're possibly looking at millions of people not working for what could easily become 7-8 months in a row. Many industries will completely collapse.
 
All this could have been avoided if flights from China were banned when the virus started spreading there but Europe & US were too concerned about economic impact. It wouldn't have been 10% of what it will be now, and you can be sure China will not be allowing any Americans or Europeans without quarantine for a long while.
This should have been done. There should have been zero outbound flights from China to any country until the end of March. Everything would be ok now if that had happened.
 
That remains to be seen. But I saw a statistic today that gives me some cause for optimism. The current average occupancy rate of ICU beds in the German states is at 8% with 16% the highest individual number. And the number of ICUs is supposed to double in the next few weeks. I guess that is actually more relevant than cases and deaths going forward.



Hehe.

He is quite a prominent figure so I just went with the title he has had for years.

8%? Meaning 8% of patients need ICU, or 8% of ICU beds are occupied?
 
This should have been done. There should have been zero outbound flights from China to any country until the end of March. Everything would be ok now if that had happened.

Or we could have been quarantining anyone who had been to China in the last 3 months for mandatory two weeks. But as pointed out, it would have been hard to implement without knowing consequences. I don't think anyone expected it to be this bad.
 
That's astonishing. Most countries will be well over 50% even without coronavirus, I'd imagine.

Germany has a lot of ICU beds, about 5 times as many on a per capita basis than the UK.
 
That's astonishing. Most countries will be well over 50% even without coronavirus, I'd imagine.

Wait. I think that might be Covid-19 related cases only. The source I'm basing this one is worded confusingly. I'll try to find the raw numbers.
 
Raab is just terrible isn't he? These briefings are turning into an assessment centre for the cabinet ministers and he's coming across by far the worst.
 
Neither BBC or Sky are showing the slides.
They got the later ones, they were taken by surprise I guess. I imagine the BBC feed will have them later. Meanwhile here's transport

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Is the UK government not reporting recoveries or is it just stuck on 135? Seems like nobody has recovered (that officially tested positive) in ages.
 
That is probably right. Without knowing current outcome which is bound to get much worse it would have been hard to justify it.

If they’d stopped it by hammering the economy they'd likely have been torn to pieces politically for overreacting. People rarely get any credit for stopping crisis before they begin, as Y2K clearly exhibited.
 
Listening to the daily UK briefing and some of the ridiculous questions from the media. I've noted a number of them are having a dig at the police for enforcing the lockdown. Absolutely ridiculous and I'm sorry to say only in the UK. What do people want?!
 
Listening to the daily UK briefing and some of the ridiculous questions from the media. I've noted a number of them are having a dig at the police for enforcing the lockdown. Absolutely ridiculous and I'm sorry to say only in the UK. What do people want?!
The opposite of what's happening, regardless of what that may be.
 
Listening to the daily UK briefing and some of the ridiculous questions from the media. I've noted a number of them are having a dig at the police for enforcing the lockdown. Absolutely ridiculous and I'm sorry to say only in the UK. What do people want?!
Questions from the media have been consistently shite over the last few weeks.
 
You are right. I am a bit obsessed with it since January, so much numbers and analisis
Yea, the funny thing for me is that I did a data analytics course with Johns Hopkins last year... so I think the value of that might be going up given that Johns Hopkins is now widely known as the data analysis model to go to for corona virus.
 
Is the UK government not reporting recoveries or is it just stuck on 135? Seems like nobody has recovered (that officially tested positive) in ages.
I'm hoping it's just that they aren't willing to classify people as recovered without retests. The cruise ship passengers in Japan had to give three successive negative tests. With tests in shortage, I doubt we're using tests that way right now. When a proven antibody test is ready, presumably that will get easier.

Maybe we'll start seeing a "admissions to hospital" and "discharged from hospital" stat soon, as well.
 
I think I’ve confused you. The figure I saw when estimating the percentage of 30s that required hospital treatment after contracting the virus was 3.2%. Of that 3.2% 5% required intubation.

I can’t for the life of me find this study now. I think this figures though sound about right though. If 50% of those tubed die we arrive at a CFR of 0.08% for that age group.

all in all it makes this virus quite a bit more deadly for the young than flu. But again many of the deaths will be in vulnerable groups.

It’s you that’s confused. Google “intubation”. It’s not the same thing as needing to be admitted to hospital for oxygen.
 
Listening to the daily UK briefing and some of the ridiculous questions from the media. I've noted a number of them are having a dig at the police for enforcing the lockdown. Absolutely ridiculous and I'm sorry to say only in the UK. What do people want?!

i know, and i don't think there was a single one based on the thing actually being presented today - bringing Brits home.
 
Listening to the daily UK briefing and some of the ridiculous questions from the media. I've noted a number of them are having a dig at the police for enforcing the lockdown. Absolutely ridiculous and I'm sorry to say only in the UK. What do people want?!

That question was absurd and just gives the government more excuses to be cowards in the implementation of this “lockdown”.

I’d hate to think what Brits would do if they were going through this in my country (Kuwait). Anyone found stepping out their door past 5 PM either gets a £35,000 fine or 3 years in jail.
 
That question was absurd and just gives the government more excuses to be cowards in the implementation of this “lockdown”.

I’d hate to think what Brits would do if they were going through this in my country (Kuwait). Anyone found stepping out their door past 5 PM either gets a £35,000 fine or 3 years in jail.

Apparently the UK has become a police state and officers are policing this over zealously.. so essentially doing what they have been asked to do whilst continuing to deal with everything else in addition.

If ever there was a time for firm enforcement it's now and that's all because the average middle class person seems to feel the rules don't apply to them.
 
That question was absurd and just gives the government more excuses to be cowards in the implementation of this “lockdown”.

I’d hate to think what Brits would do if they were going through this in my country (Kuwait). Anyone found stepping out their door past 5 PM either gets a £35,000 fine or 3 years in jail.
That seems entirely reasonable.
 
Just watching the news. Is it true French figures are vastly inaccurate and that many in care homes have not been added to the total deaths? Unbelievable if so.

It's the same in the UK
 
Raab’s opening monologue and abrupt end to the conference were fecking awkward, weren’t they? He answered most of the questions well though: