SARS CoV-2 coronavirus / Covid-19 (No tin foil hat silliness please)

Apparently they release the number non-hospital deaths tomorrow? We may be in for a surprise.
 
It’s you that’s confused. Google “intubation”. It’s not the same thing as needing to be admitted to hospital for oxygen.

I'm a bit unsure as to why you seem so confused by simple numbers. I'll try a different approach.

100 people in their 30s test positive for COVID-19
3.2% or 3.2 people have serious enough symptoms to need medical treatment in hospital
of those 3.2 people that enter hospital 5% or 0.16 people require a ventilator
50% of the 0.16 or 0.08 people die.

How is this not clear? Can someone help me out here? :lol:
 
I'm a bit unsure as to why you seem so confused by simple numbers. I'll try a different approach.

100 people in their 30s test positive for COVID-19
3.2% or 3.2 people have serious enough symptoms to need medical treatment in hospital
of those 3.2 people that enter hospital 5% or 0.16 people require a ventilator
50% of the 0.16 or 0.08 people die.

How is this not clear? Can someone help me out here? :lol:

Try reading the posts you’re responding to. I‘ve been talking about the % hospitalised from the beginning of this conversation.

Believe me, you do NOT want to be hospitalised right now. And it’s going to get a lot worse in the coming weeks.
 

Human stupidity is a powerful thing. You need to confront it powerfully in return.

If someone can’t wait to get a bit of sun and gets jailed for 3 years; and that saves lives, then so be it.

People are supposed to listen to clear advice from the government. It isn’t that difficult.

I don’t expect people from individualistic cultures to really understand it. Someone posted about the “cheek-kissing” countries being the worst hit (Italy, Spain and France). We’re even bigger cheek-kissers in the Gulf and we haven’t been hit as hard comparatively.

Ultimately, in Europe and the States, the culture is “to hell with other people. As long as I can have my beer out in the sun. No copper can stop me doing that.”

Reap the rewards.
 
Or we could have been quarantining anyone who had been to China in the last 3 months for mandatory two weeks. But as pointed out, it would have been hard to implement without knowing consequences. I don't think anyone expected it to be this bad.
But that simulation done just before Christmas showed exactly how it would spread so we did know and would expect it to be this bad. So we should done just that.
 
South Africa's president, who I respect completely, just talked to the nation for 30 minutes. He used plenty of nouns, adjectives and verbs, yet somehow managed to say nothing at all. It's the political "as-you-were" then.
 
Human stupidity is a powerful thing. You need to confront it powerfully in return.

If someone can’t wait to get a bit of sun and gets jailed for 3 years; and that saves lives, then so be it.

People are supposed to listen to clear advice from the government. It isn’t that difficult.

I don’t expect people from individualistic cultures to really understand it. Someone posted about the “cheek-kissing” countries being the worst hit (Italy, Spain and France). We’re even bigger cheek-kissers in the Gulf and we haven’t been hit as hard comparatively.

Ultimately, in Europe and the States, the culture is “to hell with other people. As long as I can have my beer out in the sun. No copper can stop me doing that.”

Reap the rewards.
Enjoy your totalitarian purity.
Your highly perceptive summary of the "ultimate" culture of Europe and the US was both perceptive, accurate, reasonable and modest.
And, yes, that was fecking sarcasm.
 
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https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.03.04.20031104v1.full.pdf
 
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Human stupidity is a powerful thing. You need to confront it powerfully in return.

If someone can’t wait to get a bit of sun and gets jailed for 3 years; and that saves lives, then so be it.

People are supposed to listen to clear advice from the government. It isn’t that difficult.

I don’t expect people from individualistic cultures to really understand it. Someone posted about the “cheek-kissing” countries being the worst hit (Italy, Spain and France). We’re even bigger cheek-kissers in the Gulf and we haven’t been hit as hard comparatively.

Ultimately, in Europe and the States, the culture is “to hell with other people. As long as I can have my beer out in the sun. No copper can stop me doing that.”

Reap the rewards.https://cdn.statcdn.com/Infographic/images/normal/20992.jpeg
Look at this map, percentage of people automatically washing their hands after they exist bathrooms. France, Spain, Italy and Holland don't have good percentages and the death tolls due to covid in these countries is high. Make of that what you will.

20992.jpeg
 
Enjoy your totalitarian purity.
Your highly perceptive summary of the "ultimate" culture of Europe and the US was both perceptive, accurate, reasonable and modest.
And, yes, that was fecking sarcasm.

:lol:

It’s not perceptive mate. Look at the data, the numbers, the results. I feel sorry for people like you who seem to be completely in denial.
 
Do any of the third world countries have any realistic chance of controlling this thing? I know some of them have taken measures but, if you're someone who's struggling daily to put a meal on the table for yourself (let alone your dependants) are you really going to give a shit about distancing?

You'll probably take your chances with the virus than starving to death.
 
Do any of the third world countries have any realistic chance of controlling this thing? I know some of them have taken measures but, if you're someone who's struggling daily to put a meal on the table for yourself (let alone your dependants) are you really going to give a shit about distancing?

You'll probably take your chances with the virus than starving to death.

Think they’re banking on having stronger immune systems, younger population, and warmer climate to get through it. I guess we’ll find out if these factors make a difference.
 


The UK numbers are still awful, but seem to be slowing down. I don't want to get my hope up too much. There's a bit of a levelling off in the last few days, but the same thing happened about a week ago.

The vast difference in number of tests done between Germany and the UK is still astonishing. Are there any numbers about the development in regards to number of tests done each week in the UK? There should be a massive increase over the last few weeks.

In Germany in week 12 alone (between March 16th and 22nd) there were at least 348619 tests done with 6.8% positive, up from about 127000 the week before. Apparently the next goal is to get 100k people a day tested and push it up to 200k a day soon. If we're able to do 1 Million tests each week, there should be a good chance to isolate infected people quickly and get this under control.
The numbers are on page 6 of this report (it's in German, didn't find an English version):
https://www.rki.de/DE/Content/InfAZ...chte/2020-03-26-de.pdf?__blob=publicationFile
 
Do any of the third world countries have any realistic chance of controlling this thing? I know some of them have taken measures but, if you're someone who's struggling daily to put a meal on the table for yourself (let alone your dependants) are you really going to give a shit about distancing?

You'll probably take your chances with the virus than starving to death.
I see this everyday, people supposed to be in confinement but entire neighborhoods living their lives because they do not have a choice. When people obey to the instructions, many small houses are also overcrowded. Unless a miracle, what is happening in Europe right now will be nothing very soon here.
The main issue would be the validity of official numbers in each country, specially in Africa.
 
I still don't quite get the mortality in Spain and Italy in comparison to northern countries, is simply that virus there so much more widespread?
 
:lol:

It’s not perceptive mate. Look at the data, the numbers, the results. I feel sorry for people like you who seem to be completely in denial.
No, it was very perceptive.
Ultimately, as long as I can get a beer of an evening I, just like all of Europe and the US, will willing accept a humanitarian disaster as I am a selfish and ill disciplined prick missing the stern but firm hand of a strong government. It's for similar reasons we've got all those gays and all that pre marital sex going on. I see now that totalitarian punitive measures are the only way to control I and my fellow degenerates.
 
I still don't quite get the mortality in Spain and Italy in comparison to northern countries, is simply that virus there so much more widespread?

Culture no doubt.

The average age of moving out from parents in Italy is 30. Add that to kissing on cheek culture and it simply means a shit load more risk group 70+’s getting it and in a shorter timeframe.
 
No, it was very perceptive.
Ultimately, as long as I can get a beer of an evening I, just like all of Europe and the US, will willing accept a humanitarian disaster as I am a selfish and ill disciplined prick missing the stern but firm hand of a strong government.

You seem to have a very high opinion of the intelligence and selflessness of the average person. Good luck.
 
Listening to the daily UK briefing and some of the ridiculous questions from the media. I've noted a number of them are having a dig at the police for enforcing the lockdown. Absolutely ridiculous and I'm sorry to say only in the UK. What do people want?!

The problem is there is a lack of trust in the system, which isn't particularly helped by Boris and different government advisors completely changing their mind from one day to the next. False and scaremongering information being constantly reported, and stories like the government literally turning down the chance to buy more ventilators.

I think nearly all people are happy to follow safety guidance and most have even accepted losing jobs, income, etc.

But when it looks like the people in charge are just making it up as they go along there is always going to be a backlash towards any enforcement.

It is a new virus and unprecedented situation but at the same time we do know some things about it. We know how it spreads, we know it's symptoms, it's mortality rate (with reasonable accuracy), who is more at risk, how long it lasts, how long it survives on various surfaces etc. We don't know enough to stop it or if that's even possible, but there's is definitely enough there for a bunch of smart people to come up with a consistent and effective strategy to fight it.

Instead we have the government changing it's mind and saying completely different things every day. "Advisors" who can't even agree with each other. Numbers and figures being batted around by people working with the government which in more thwn one case have literally been plucked out of thin air and evidence proves are just plain wrong.

Its actuqlly really frustrating to be part of as it doesn't give me any confidence we are actually doing the right thing. It's like we are trying to dress accordingly based on a weather forecast that someone just half made up.

The stuff coming out in the media, a lot of it from the government, is barely anymore fact or science based than some of the scaremongering rumours on Facebook.

Just give people demonstrable facts or evidence to go with the advice and I doubt there would be half the hassle. Instead Of "oh 250000 people will die because we worked out how many people die of respiratory problems each year and just presumed they'd all get corona virus"
 
Look at this map, percentage of people automatically washing their hands after they exist bathrooms. France, Spain, Italy and Holland don't have good percentages and the death tolls due to covid in these countries is high. Make of that what you will.

20992.jpeg
The amount of cases in Turkey has been growing extremely fast recently.. from 50 to more than 10k in just 2 weeks.
 
The footage being shown out of India suggests things are going to get very, very bad there soon.

The lockdown put in place there was too abrupt and has left the poor and/or migrant workers starved and/or stranded - the scrambles being shown of people trying to get home and cramming bus/train stations completely making a mockery of social distancing has to make you wonder what kind of scenario awaits in the upcoming weeks.

That mapping of phones from the beach in America some pages back in this thread is a mere fraction of how far the virus could be spread across India with the close proximity of people trying to get to wherever it is they call home.
 
You seem to have a very high opinion of the intelligence and selflessness of the average person. Good luck.
Thank you. I agree that the only way to control and educate populations is disproportionate vindictiveness and I too hope that I some day live under theocratic diktat.
 
I still don't quite get the mortality in Spain and Italy in comparison to northern countries, is simply that virus there so much more widespread?

It seems to be linked to the location itself and indeed how widespread it is in that particular location. In Italy and Spain the most affected regions are Lombardy and Madrid both are very populated areas with high density, it's perfect for viruses propagations. The same thing can be said about France, the most affected region is Ile-De-France(Paris and its suburb) and the second most is the Grand Est and in particular Mulhouse where a big evangelical gathering occured in late February.
 
I don’t expect people from individualistic cultures to really understand it. Someone posted about the “cheek-kissing” countries being the worst hit (Italy, Spain and France). We’re even bigger cheek-kissers in the Gulf and we haven’t been hit as hard comparatively.

Ultimately, in Europe and the States, the culture is “to hell with other people. As long as I can have my beer out in the sun. No copper can stop me doing that.”

Reap the rewards.

:lol:

It’s not perceptive mate. Look at the data, the numbers, the results. I feel sorry for people like you who seem to be completely in denial.

Isn't the slight flaw in your theory that China and Iran initially led the way and Iran continues to outrun Germany, the UK etc. despite having fundamentally different cultures?

The thing I've been most surprised by is the amount of people that make themselves feel better by pointing out how other countries, regions, cultures, age groups etc. are worse than them. Divisivensss becomes a comfort blanket.
 
Culture no doubt.

The average age of moving out from parents in Italy is 30. Add that to kissing on cheek culture and it simply means a shit load more risk group 70+’s getting it and in a shorter timeframe.

Don't underestimate the issue with smoking, especially in northern Italy.
I worked in Turin for a short period of time and it was a massive difference compared to England.

You can't smoke and expect not to severely damage your lungs.
 
Isn't the slight flaw in your theory that China and Iran initially led the way and Iran continues to outrun Germany, the UK etc. despite having fundamentally different cultures?

The thing I've been most surprised by is the amount of people that make themselves feel better by pointing out how other countries, regions, cultures, age groups etc. are worse than them. Divisivensss becomes a comfort blanket.

No, my original point was about strong punishment being used against those who don’t follow guidelines for the welfare of society. Cultural factors are only one part of it, and when paired with extremely lax enforcement of measures then it doesn’t become surprising to see who leads the way.

Nobody’s culture is better than another’s. You’ve gotten a bit carried away at the end there.
 
What's happening in Djibouti at the moment?
25 confirmed cases in a week which probably means close to 100 in reality. Half the town follows confinement and the other half just doesn't give a shit basically because they are ignorant but mostly because they live on a day to day basis, they need food for their families. The governement has no plans in place to help the people and these feckers even set up various bank accounts for donations from the people :wenger: