Yeah, you're the third person to call me out on it and I've already said twice I was entirely wrong so piss off.
SARS CoV-2 coronavirus / Covid-19 (No tin foil hat silliness please)
- Thread starter Don't Kill Bill
- Start date
The number of kits available seems to be have been a problem alright.
Even still though, our level of testing per capita is relatively high and has still increased over the period that the percentage increase in cases has been in decline. So the trend is still positive atm.
Supposedly at least 5 houses in our estate have had medics in hazmat suits removing people.
I am not leaving the fecking house
I am not leaving the fecking house
Removing dead people? Christ.
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feck. I am in limerick.
Dublin expected to get bad in the next week to ten days they say.
christ that's proper scary. Didn't realise we were at that stage. Are ambulance drivers and paras in full PPE everywhere now?
Don't blame you, stay isolated as long as you can.
China vibes. Stay safe geebs
Surely there would be videos of that? I live in an estate, I know how nosey we all are.
We’re on a WhatsApp group that’s just the estate neighbourhood watch and management group, it’s from trusted people who constantly ping when something happens out of the ordinary
it’s getting a bit close for comfort now
Almost my whole department has been furloughed, so whilst initially working 14 hours a day 7 days a week seemed like a bit of a shitter, at least it keeps me away from the news.
Just seen that today’s Spanish deaths have overtaken Italy’s
they were in a couple of hundred last time I saw the daily totals
Just seen that today’s Spanish deaths have overtaken Italy’s
they were in a couple of hundred last time I saw the daily totals2 helicopters have been up most of the night here
@golden_blunder where are you, somewhere in Blanch?
feck. :/
About a week ago I saw estimates that 20% of those with Covid needed hospitalisation and of those 5-7% needed an ICU bed. Of course we don't really know how many people actually have it yet (as opposed to how many of those tested have it) but I would have thought that the 5-7% figure would have some basis in fact although of course things can vary from country to country depending in many factors.
Edit found the (or a) source:
https://www.abc.net.au/news/2020-03...id-19-icu-beds-ventilators-hospitals/12090420
based on this paper
https://jamanetwork.com/journals/jama/fullarticle/2762130
And Liberty University is now reporting over a dozen people with Covid symptoms.
Didn’t see that coming...
Didn’t see that coming...
What does their science department say on the matter?
Truth is nobody knows at this point unless we can say with confidence how many have it without any symptoms. Could be that you need to multiply the number of cases by 20 to get to correct number, could be that the amount of symptomless cases is small and the numbers are right. It’ll be a while before we know. Hopefully the former is true.
Not really.
If they compared it to the devastation of the Spanish Flu than might be taking it more seriously.
I don't know if this is a stupid question, but can people without symptoms even spread it? Surely if they aren't coughing, sneezing or being dirty pricks who don't pick their nose or mouth there is a small possibility that they actually even spread the virus in 14 days?
Edit: before anyone jumps, I don't think asymptomatic people should be "free" by any means, look at my previous post in this thread on that. Just asking genuine question that includes lots of ifs.
Edit: before anyone jumps, I don't think asymptomatic people should be "free" by any means, look at my previous post in this thread on that. Just asking genuine question that includes lots of ifs.
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I think the % infected is a huge unknown so the percentage of infected needing hospital is also unknown but we should have a decent ballpark figure for what percentage of those hospitalised need ICU because we do know both of those numbers.
And yes - hopefully the vast majority are symptom free or only get minor cold like symptoms.
Having got pneumonia once (in retrospect possibly during the 2009 swine flu outbreak) and only not being hospitalised because I had a business to run from bed (yes I am an idiot with my health) I REALLY don't want those types of symptoms again.
A month long swinger session organised in stadiums across the country with only young people invited. There, COVID defeated.
Now there’s the million dollar question. The way Liberty is, I wouldn’t be surprised if they’ve got creationists in the bio department
Couldn't droplets be sent out from talking maybe? Especially shouting.
Cheltenham fest going ahead was such a ridiculous move.
For societal impact, maybe (though the Spanish Flu was sort of overshadowed by the First World War, as far as global events go). The mortality rate is probably considerably lower. Though of course there's more of us now.
And actually, the Spanish Flu was the H1N1 virus too, so you're both right!
Either way this is going to go deep into the zeitgeist. It's certainly the most disruptive event for Norway since WW2.
Yep ICU out of hospitalized will be a good figure already.
The primary method of spread is almost certainly droplets from coughs and sneezing (rare symptom with Covid-19) with aerosol and contact infections being much rarer BUT still highly important to protect against.
In terms of asymptomatic people being infectious I think it is safe to say they are even if they are less of a risk due to not coughing but they will also be more likely to be out and about shopping etc during which they can touch things and potentially infect others.
But we had immunity to some degree the second time around in 2009. That said the Spanish Flu may have killed so many due to the poor and crowded conditions but it seems likely that the lack of immunity played a big part.
Italy and Spain are near that. I’d be surprised if US are not double that at some point.
Yeah there's all sorts of measurement errors and country variations so it's hard to tell exact figures, but it seems possible it's in the single digits. On Worldometer they have the global number of critical cases as 5%, but I can't corroborate the UK figures so no idea if any of them are accurate. This is the latest report on UK cases in critical care but it's difficult to figure out the coverage. Supposedly it's "all" confirmed cases reported by all participants in the CMP, which is nearly every critical care unit in the UK. If around 1/2 of people in critical care are dying, then you could estimate there's been 2450 critical cases from the 19,522 total (12.5%). In any case, it's significantly bigger than the number on Worldometer.
They were a little murky about the details but these were the ballpark figures from NY 10 days ago:
And more recently the figures were:
So it definitely varies and I suspect the biggest factor in that is as the number of critical cases rise, more and more mild cases are turned away from hospitalisation (like some folks on here from the NHS have said they've done). Hard to generalise in that sense.
Iceland have used the broadest testing we know of and they have 1,020 infections, 25 hospitalised and 9 in intensive care.
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I laughed because there is no way they have a bio program. Then I checked and they do!
There’s a fella from Northern Ireland I know is a flight instructor there.
If it is air borne, I doubt if it will just be coughing and sneezing.
To see what you normally can't see, people's breath, watch cold weather breathing or vaping videos.
Moist breath travel more than you may think.
Yep, blanch area. Mulhuddart