SARS CoV-2 coronavirus / Covid-19 (No tin foil hat silliness please)

[Penna]

I think these are new active cases. If you subtract the deaths and the recovered from the newly infected you get La Repubblica's number.

Yes, I was posting the new case figures.

 

[BusbyMalone]

 

[11101]

Where did that new case figure come from, @Samid? I'm seeing on La Repubblica that today there's 3,651 new positive cases, as opposed to 4,401 yesterday.

The number of recovered is 1,434 (589 yesterday).

Civil Protection Agency always reports active cases first as that is what they are most concerned with for hospital utilisation.

Apparently hospitalizations and ICU admissions have been reducing drastically the last few days, not sure why that is.

 

[Revan]

It is not an upper bound. Deaths lag behind, so it could easily rise. People were saying the same thing about S Korea when it was 0.4%, now it is well over 1%. For the record i think true CFR will be around 0.5%-1%. But Germany doesn't provide an upper limit at the moment like you claim

Fair point. But active cases (which can die) and the silent cases (which are not tested and documented) probably balance each other.

 

[Snafu17]

Yes, I was posting the new case figures.

There's 5974 new cases. There's 3651 new active cases. 5974 people tested positive but 1434 recovered and 889 died so there are now 3651 more people hospitalised than there were yesterday.

 

[Shakesy]

Well if you want to get properly pedantic, was is actually the correct use of the term. I was talking about a statement of fact, rather than a subjunctive mood. However this thread isn't the place for educating.

I know this is a bit late, but...



Funniest thing I reads today!

 

[Penna]

There's 5974 new cases. There's 3651 new active cases. 5974 people tested positive but 1434 recovered and 889 died so there are now 3651 more people hospitalised.

The new active cases are the main concern, though (notwithstanding the deaths, but those can't be controlled by national quarantine), surely? It's the daily new active positives that we need to focus on. The way it's reported in the press makes more sense to me, although I may be simplifying things.

 

[Snafu17]

The new active cases are the main concern, though (notwithstanding the deaths, but those can't be controlled by national quarantine), surely? It's the daily new active positives that we need to focus on. The way it's reported in the press makes more sense to me, although I may be simplifying things.

I mean, it's all data, it all has it's uses. You could technically have negative new active cases, but if there still a thousand newly infected every day you probably wouldn't lift the quarantine measures just yet.

 

[Penna]

I mean, it's all data, it all has it's uses. You could technically have negative new active cases, but if there still a thousand newly infected every day you probably wouldn't lift the quarantine measures just yet.

Yes, you're right on that. But as long as new infections are falling, it means something's working. It's great to see the numbers for recovered people rise, but sadly we can't affect the deaths once people have already caught it, beyond what the hospitals are doing.

 

[Fortitude]

I don't actually think I'm a pigeon you know,

Liar!

to base your entire argument on that is a bit daft. It's also daft to not use a bit of common sense when you can go two weeks without showing any symptoms. I know it's difficult for you to understand that because, as you've already asserted; you think I think I'm a bird.

It's EXTREMELY daft to get so uppity about the whole thing as well so I recommend you spend a couple of weeks thinking about why you're so defensive all the time on this forum. Preferably indoors and maintaining six feet of distance between you and others.

Six is the number after you've counted all the fingers one hand, just in case you're struggling. Again; I'm not an actual bird. Please try and remember that.

 

[Withnail]

A genuine concern that has crossed my mind is how Ireland will handle the eventual re-opening of pubs.

In pretty much every other area I can see us being sensible as lockdown measures are gradually lifted but social distancing is kept in place. People will stay relatively well disciplined, I suspect.

In the particular case of the pubs though, I can't even imagine that happening. As soon as they open their doors there will be an absolute pile in. Which is a problem given this will presumably happen before a vaccine is available but also at a point where there is still a large swathe of the population yet to be infected.

The lockdown itself is absolutely fine but handling things post-lockdown will be much trickier.

I honestly think it'll be long time before the pubs are open again. I'd say they'll be one of the last things to come back for obvious reasons as you've said yourself.

I'm not sure why you think they'll open the pubs before we're out of the woods with this thing.

 

[Ady87]

I now know 2 people hospitalised from this. One of them is my brother in laws mum (critical) and one of them works in my office, but not my room. He is 32. The room he works in only sent people home to work on Wednesday last week. The numbers in my area are about to rocket I inagine.

 

[Withnail]

It's still mind boggling he was elected

 

[Revan]

America has a sixth of the worlds cases.
It's either the US has been very good with testing and the other numbers are shit or the US response to this has been diabolical. The rate of infection in America is something else.

Both I guess. The Us has done more tests than any other country, and is doing over 100k tests per day.

It also is very big, decentralized and the population is build over a libertarian system, which makes the virus easy to be spread.

 

[Unlikely lad]

At Oslo University Hospital, Scientists say they may have an anti-body ready in 3-4 weeks. If the test works as good as it seems. If/When all is good with that test it will tell us how to handle the pandemic.

Since the virus is so recent in many humans, some time will go before we have all the answers. When some time has passed after the infection, we can say more about the quality of the anti-bodies.

The Anti-body tests can be run at high volumes in machines at hospitals.

The best possible scenario is that the tests shows that we get herd immunity for life from this Virus, like chickenpox. That means no more Covid-19 in a year or two. Or it could be that when the virus hits again, it does not cause as severe symptoms and disease as the first time due to the antibodys left behind. Another scenario can be that the virus mutates enough to avoid the existing antibodies.

Corona will produce antibodies though.

And the infected persons immune defense will first produce immuneglobuling M (UgM). This happens while you are sick or contagious. Call it the intensive phase.

Then after a while, IgM disappears, and the body produces ImmuneGlobulin G (IgG). This gives vital information. If a patient has positiv IgM we now they have a recent infection, maybe active. If one just can detect IgG, we know the patient has been infected earlier. Right now the tests can tell to a certain degree when a person was infected, but in a year that will be impossible.

So now, the question is when our countries will be able to develop these tests, as they will be extremely valuable to tell us what we need to do forward in time. Estimates for Norway at least is that a test will not be finished before earliest a month from now.

The issue with the antibody tests currently being made is that they seem to be struggling in terms of specificity (according to the most recent literature, at least).

They seem to be picking up different corona viruses (inc. the seasonal ones, SARS, MERS etc..). More work is needed, but hopefully we'll get there soon enough. Would be game-changer for frontline staff.

 

[Unlikely lad]

are the younger patients tubed or supplemental o2? Hope they are ok.

Most have/are doing ok with supplemental O2, but some are still currently intubated. ITU admissions have been softer those past 2 weeks, we need to be harsher - it sounds callous, but the numbers we've had so far shows that it's not worth blocking beds for likely poor outcomes.

 

[Shakesy]

We live in an area with no confirmed cases, yet my wife has been experiencing shortness of breath for the last 3 days. She doesn't have a cough and also not a fever. Weird. Yet, we now worry she might have it.

Strange times.

 

[Smores]

The issue with the antibody tests currently being made is that they seem to be struggling in terms of specificity (according to the most recent literature, at least).

They seem to be picking up different corona viruses (inc. the seasonal ones, SARS, MERS etc..). More work is needed, but hopefully we'll get there soon enough. Would be game-changer for frontline staff.

I'm intrigued what happens if the results come back and rather than bringing medics out of self-isolation it results in even more needing to self-isolate.

 

[BusbyMalone]

It's still mind boggling he was elected

Wait until he gets re-elected

 

[Irwin99]

Wow!

I wonder if a mass amount of people could ever start standing up to big businesses that don't pay their taxes and cheat the system (and by that I mean a truly massive amount of people and not just a minority). I'm one to talk; I use Amazon and have an iPhone etc. so i'm well aware of my own hypocrisy, but it does sicken me when I hear about this guy and Mike Ashley and these types of people.

 

[sullydnl]

I honestly think it'll be long time before the pubs are open again. I'd say they'll be one of the last things to come back for obvious reasons as you've said yourself.

I'm not sure why you think they'll open the pubs before we're out of the woods with this thing.

I think a) a vaccine is likely to be at least a year away, b) pubs and other businesses aren't going to remain closed for an indefinite amount of time that could also last quite a bit longer than a year and c) at whatever point measures start being lifted pre-vaccine there will still be a lot of people yet to be infected, assuming people can't also be re-infected.

In that sense I'm not sure what "out of the woods" means in this context. Obviously we have to get past this oncoming peak but the problem doesn't go away after that, nor will the world stop until it does. Which means we face some difficult planning in terms of eventually easing current measures.

 

[Samid]

France take the death numbers past 30k.

 

[Fener1907]

What’s the latest news from Pakistan? @Zlatattack

And Turkey? @Fener1907

New measures are gradually introduced, with the latest being no travel allowed between cities without permission. All private hospitals were made public to cope with any surge in cases, although it doesn't look to have materialized.

Nothing much to report, really. Enough new cases but the death toll isn't anything drastic.

 

[unchanged_lineup]

14 dead in Ireland today

 

[Ian Reus]

We live in an area with no confirmed cases, yet my wife has been experiencing shortness of breath for the last 3 days. She doesn't have a cough and also not a fever. Weird. Yet, we now worry she might have it.

Strange times.

Look at Shakespeare being able to afford a house in an affluent and liked minded community.

 

[Grinner]

I now know 2 people hospitalised from this. One of them is my brother in laws mum (critical) and one of them works in my office, but not my room. He is 32. The room he works in only sent people home to work on Wednesday last week. The numbers in my area are about to rocket I inagine.

FFS can people please remember to include where they are posting from when saying stuff like this? It would be really helpful.

Sorry to single you out.

 

[Fully Fledged]

14 dead in Ireland today

 

[sullydnl]

14 dead in Ireland today

Good news is that daily increases in coronavirus cases still seems to be okayish: March 23: 24% March 24: 18% March 25: 18% March 26: 16% March 27: 17% March 28: 14%.

Problem is the ICU cases are jumping more sharply: 39 -> 47 -> 59 -> 67 -> 70+. Given limited capacity in this regard, that seems to have been what's primarily driven yesterday's measures and is more worrying in terms of future deaths.

 

[horsechoker]

Come to the UK then feck off once we're done with you

https://www.theguardian.com/environ...es-to-fly-in-farm-workers-from-eastern-europe

Fruit and veg ‘will run out’ unless Britain charters planes to fly in farm workers from eastern Europe

UK urgently needs 90,000 labourers to pick crops that will otherwise die in the fields, warns charity

 

[redshaw]

​

UK Dates​	UK Deaths​	Italy Dates​	Italy Deaths​	Spain Dates​	Spain Deaths​	France Dates​	France Deaths​
March 8th​	3​	Feb 23rd​	3​	March 5th​	3​	March 2nd​	3​
March 9th​	5​	Feb 24th​	7​	March 6th​	8​	March 3rd​	4​
March 10th​	6​	Feb 25th​	11​	March 7th​	10​	March 4th​	4​
March 11th​	8​	Feb 26th​	12​	March 8th​	17​	March 5th​	7​
March 12th​	10​	Feb 27th​	17​	March 9th​	30​	March 6th​	9​
March 13th​	11​	Feb 28th​	21​	March 10th​	36​	March 7th​	16​
March 14th​	21​	Feb 29th​	29​	March 11th​	55​	March 8th​	19​
March 15th​	35​	March 1st​	41​	March 12th​	86​	March 9th​	30​
March 16th​	55​	March 2nd​	52​	March 13th​	133​	March 10th​	33​
March 17th​	71​	March 3rd​	79​	March 14th​	196​	March 11th​	48​
March 18th​	104​	March 4th​	107​	March 15th​	294​	March 12th​	61​
March 19th​	144​	March 5th​	148​	March 16th​	342​	March 13th​	79​
March 20th​	177​	March 6th​	197​	March 17th​	533​	March 14th​	91​
March 21st​	233​	March 7th​	233​	March 18th​	638​	March 15th​	127​
March 22nd​	281​	March 8th​	366​	March 19th​	833​	March 16th​	148​
March 23rd​	335​	March 9th​	463​	March 20th​	1,093​	March 17th​	175​
March 24th​	422​	March 10th​	631​	March 21st​	1,381​	March 18th​	244​
March 25th​	468​	March 11th​	827​	March 22nd​	1,813​	March 19th​	372​
March 26th​	578​	March 12th​	1,016​	March 23rd​	2,207​	March 20th​	450​
March 27th​	759​	March 13th​	1,266​	March 24th​	2,696​	March 21st​	562​
March 28th​	1,019​	March 14th​	1,441​	March 25th​	3,434​	March 22nd​	674​
​	​	March 15th​	1,809​	March 26th​	4,145​	March 23rd​	860​
​	​	March 16th​	2,158​	March 27th​	4,858​	March 24th​	1100​
​	​	March 17th​	2,503​	March 28th​	5,690​	March 25th​	1331​
​	​	March 18th​	2,978​	​	​	March 26th​	1,696​
​	​	March 19th​	3,405​	​	​	March 27th​	1,995​
​	​	March 20th​	4,032​	​	​	March 28th​	2,314​

​

 

[Shakesy]

Look at Shakespeare being able to afford a house in an affluent and liked minded community.

Whither be affluent and like-minded? Alas, I am not.

 

[vodrake]

Come to the UK then feck off once we're done with you

https://www.theguardian.com/environ...es-to-fly-in-farm-workers-from-eastern-europe

This practice run for brexit is going pretty terribly so far

 

[Penna]

Come to the UK then feck off once we're done with you

https://www.theguardian.com/environ...es-to-fly-in-farm-workers-from-eastern-europe

Ah yes, all these jobs the Europeans were taking from British people .....

 

[Ian Reus]

Whither be affluent and like-minded? Alas, I am not.

Whethering Heights.

 

[sullydnl]

Hmmm, not sure about this. South Korea are the poster children for extreme testing, is their health system that underdeveloped compared to the UK?

 

[redshaw]

Should be quite a few brits unemployed, maybe they can pick the fruit and veg? Not sure I'd want to endanger eastern Europeans.

 

[C'est Moi Cantona]

Could somebody explain who they are testing in the UK at the moment? Less than 20 % who have been tested actually have it, yet testing must be been restricted to those most at need, and likely to have it.

 

[Shakesy]

Whethering Heights.

Ain't we all?

 

[cyberman]

Irelands main death source seems to be from care homes, which in being absolutely horrible, gives us a chance with this lockdown

 

[Penna]

In Italy, the government is giving 4.3 billion euros to the Comunes (there are over 7,000 of them, some tiny hamlets, some massive like Rome). There will also be 400 million euros for the Civil Protection, to be used exclusively to provide shopping vouchers and food supplies to people who have lost their income.