1 in 20 in the most vulnerable group that covid19 affects would have died within 1 year regardless of covid19. So of that 1.5 million, that's 75,000. I'm using the 1.5 million that the government sent the letter to telling them to stay in for 3 weeks.
https://www.google.com/amp/s/www.bbc.co.uk/news/amp/health-51979654
We have right wing politician in Poland arguing that all of covid-19 deaths would have happened within 1 month regardless. Beat that.