SARS CoV-2 coronavirus / Covid-19 (No tin foil hat silliness please)

Ainu said:
I had a proper losing-my-faith-in-humanity moment while listening to that. What world are we trying to save here, with people as selfish and stupid as that in it, ruining it for everyone else? The interviewer just couldn't deal with it anymore and I fully understand.
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So Many of us willing to change every aspect of life as we know it to protect people like her. She really should be arrested and prosecuted for manslaughter or even pre meditated murder.

Some very tough and draconian measures needed urgently.
 
senorgregster said:
Not looking good on the antivirals either.

Background: The novel coronavirus pneumonia (COVID-19) outbreak has caused a global pandemic, however, effective antiviral therapeutics are still unavailable. Methods: Our study (NCT04252885), designated as ELACOI, was an exploratory randomized (2:2:1) and controlled one, exploring the efficacy and safety of lopinavir/ritonavir (LPV/r) or arbidol monotherapy treating mild/moderate COVID-19 patients. Results: This study successful enrolled 44 patients with mild/moderate COVID-19, with 21 randomly assigned to receive LPV/r, 16 to arbidol and 7 to no antiviral medication as control. Baseline characteristics of three groups were comparable. The median time of positive-to-negative conversion of SARS-CoV-2 nucleic acid was 8.5 (IQR 3, 13) days in the LPV/r group, 7 (IQR 3, 10.5) days in the arbidol group and 4 (IQR 3, 10.5) days in the control group (P=0.751). The positive-to-negative conversion rates of SARS-CoV-2 nucleic acid at day 7 and 14 did not show significant differences in the LPV/r group (42.9%, 76.2%), the arbidol group (62.5%, 87.5%) and the control group (71.4%, 71.4%) (all P>0.53). No statistical differences were found among three groups in the rates of antipyresis, cough alleviation, improvement of chest CT or the deterioration rate of clinical status (all P > 0.05). Overall, 5 (23.8%) patients in the LPV/r group experienced adverse events during the follow-up period. No apparent adverse events occurred in the arbidol or control group. Conclusion: LPV/r or arbidol monotherapy seems little benefit for improving the clinical outcome of mild/moderate COVID-19. LPV/r might lead to more adverse events. Due to the limitation of small sample size, further verification is needed in the future.
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This is pretty bad (though a very small study).
 
Sweet Square said:
Could be a load of bollock(ts a paywall)l but for those that are interested



edit

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I would love that "worst flu/cough of my life" that I had in February to have been the Covid virus and that I can't therefore now infect anyone else. Sadly, right now it's just another theory, and potentially a dangerous one if it gets too much currency before mass antibody screening has tested it. Nice to dream though!
 
Revan said:
That means nothing though, except him possibly winning the Darwin award. It wasn't even the malaria drug, but some substance used for it, we don't know how much he ingested, we don't know if he had any preconditions that means you cannot take that drug, and so on. I mean, you can die by getting too much paracetamol, so this is no news.
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In case you missed my edit. Note my follow up on HIV drugs too. I had hopes for those.

Monday night, Evercore ISI analyst Umer Raffat distributed an abstract of an unpublished Chinese trial of hydroxychloroquine in patients with mild Covid-19 that appears to have had disappointing results. According to Raffat, the study found that 87% of patients on hydroxychloroquine experienced virological clearance by day 7, compared with 93% of patients in the control arm.
 
stepic said:
has anyone attempted getting a 3 month delay on their mortgages? i haven't had any reduction in my salary or anything, but to be honest it would be nice to be able to bank 3 month's of mortgage payments just in case anything happens in the future. was just wondering how stringent they are in giving this (particularly if you haven't lost your job or anything).
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This should be a last resort, it is very likely to negatively affect your credit score
 
VintageWhatnots said:
Maybe you're right, but higher earners usually have higher outgoings too, I know some people who earn way more than me, but they barely make ends meet, they'll still be screwed if their income dries up.

The agreement is already in place to give workers 80% so why shouldn't the self employed get the same?

I didn't see you raise these concerns when employers were getting this given to them a week ago (though admittedly I could have missed this).

The fact is it would be very costly to start means testing this, and the manpower isn't their I wouldn't think. It's simpler to do a blanket payment of a fixed amount of what ALL earn, so we can all exist at something similar to what we do now. Without anyone getting into serious financial trouble.
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Can they get mortgage freezes etc?

If all workers were getting the 80% too then yeah, that’s fair I guess. But they aren’t. It’s down to the employer and unfortunately those in the lowest paid jobs won’t get it.
 
jojojo said:
I would love that "worst flu/cough of my life" that I had in February to have been the Covid virus and that I can't therefore now infect anyone else. Sadly, right now it's just another theory, and potentially a dangerous one if it gets too much currency before mass antibody screening has tested it. Nice to dream though!
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And it is a wrong theory. Less than 15% of people tested in the UK are tested as positive. Bear in mind, a lot of them actually are sick, which is why they are getting tested in the first place. This ratio should have been closer to 0.5 (at least in the last few days).

Probably some junior PhD student trying to be cool and coming with a breakthrough theory.
 
Revan said:
Too good to be true IMO. If that is the case, that this is essentially just another cold/flu. I think the number of infected is significantly higher than the official numbers, but not half the population being infected. That would mean that for every official case, there are more than 4000 other infected people who have no symptoms. Sorry, but I don't see it happening. There might be 2 or 3, or even 10 asymptotic cases, but not thousands (for everyone with symptoms).

Finally, the vast majority of cases result negative. If half the population is infected, then even just doing random testings means that around half will result positive. Yesterday there were already done more than 70k cases, with less than 8k being positive. So even that people who are sick are getting preferential testings, still the ratio is closer to 0.1 than 0.5.

I have respect for Oxford, but it screams bullshit.
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Could be. The reason I'm interested in the idea is that there was a flu-like illness going around here earlier in the year and now, looking back, I can't help but remember how many people had severe coughs. Purely anecdotal and likely just a paranoid, biased opinion, of course.

Just a quick question about that bolded bit - if somebody had it in, say, January and got over it with few to no symptoms, would they still be able to test positive for it in March?
 
I land at Heathrow at 7am Thursday.

Been in Asia for 2 months so feel like im
Entering a new world!

What’s the most risk free way of getting home and what hygiene precautions should i take during that journey?
 
senorgregster said:
In case you missed my edit. Note my follow up on HIV drugs too. I had hopes for those.

Monday night, Evercore ISI analyst Umer Raffat distributed an abstract of an unpublished Chinese trial of hydroxychloroquine in patients with mild Covid-19 that appears to have had disappointing results. According to Raffat, the study found that 87% of patients on hydroxychloroquine experienced virological clearance by day 7, compared with 93% of patients in the control arm.
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Yep, both this and the one you posted in anti-virals look really bad. If confirmed than these are terrible news. The new drugs won't be ready for a long time (and after that time we might have a vaccine so they won't be too much needed), so the hope was that one of these old drugs might somehow do something here. It was a faint hope though, no reason why a malaria drug (which fights a parasite) should work for a novel virus.
 
MDFC Manager said:
Complete lockdown in India for the next 3 weeks. I hope this does the trick for us
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How does that work in slums or those very small 2 room homes built close together and where women wash cloths And other domestic tasks on front pavement ?
 
Dan_F said:
Can they get mortgage freezes etc?

If all workers were getting the 80% too then yeah, that’s fair I guess. But they aren’t. It’s down to the employer and unfortunately those in the lowest paid jobs won’t get it.
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Mortgage freezes will likely negatively affect their credit score, but yes in theory they could, if their lender allows it.

Why would any employer not apply for the 80% from the government? They don't exactly have to do a lot for it, and get to keep staff on, most of which will be happy with the 80%
 
sammsky1 said:
I land at Heathrow at 7am Thursday.

Been in Asia for 2 months so feel like im
Entering a new world!

What’s the most risk free way of getting home and what hygiene precautions should i take during that journey?
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Horse? Hard to know really, getting a friend to meet you would be best tbh. Otherwise you'll have to risk a taxi.
 
stepic said:
it seems ridiculous that it should affect your score. talk about kicking people when they're down.
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It really is ridiculous, but essentially you're asking your mortgage lender to give you a break because you can't afford it, the systems are automatic after that.

Hopefully someone will put something in place to protect against this
 
Fener1907 said:
Could be. The reason I'm interested in the idea is that there was a flu-like illness going around here earlier in the year and now, looking back, I can't help but remember how many people had severe coughs. Purely anecdotal and likely just a paranoid, biased opinion, of course.

Just a quick question about that bolded bit - if somebody had it in, say, January and got over it with few to no symptoms, would they still be able to test positive for it in March?
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Probably one of the doctors @Arruda @Pogue Mahone might be able to reply to this.

My best (totally uninformed) guess is that there should be tests that detect it, but no idea if that happens for normal tests. Assuming that tests detect the antibodies, then yes. For example, you can get a test to see if you have a certain vaccine that you might have got decades ago. If on the other hand, the test checks only for the virus, probably no.
 
France deaths 1100, +240
22300 cases +2444

Apparently France will be increasing testing soon.
 
VintageWhatnots said:
Mortgage freezes will likely negatively affect their credit score, but yes in theory they could, if their lender allows it.

Why would any employer not apply for the 80% from the government? They don't exactly have to do a lot for it, and get to keep staff on, most of which will be happy with the 80%
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Apparently mortgage freezes won’t be a direct mark on your credit report however the months without any payments are likely to be picked up by the system as part of a continuity report.
 
VintageWhatnots said:
It really is ridiculous, but essentially you're asking your mortgage lender to give you a break because you can't afford it, the systems are automatic after that.

Hopefully someone will put something in place to protect against this
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according to the FCA: 'Our guidance makes clear to firms that they should ensure that taking a payment holiday will not impact your credit score.'

however you will still get charged interest on the mortgage during the freeze, and most likely your mortgage payment will increase slightly after the 3 months to make up for it. so it's probably not really worth it unless you REALLY need it.
 
One thing is pretty much certain at this point, this fecker stays/survives on the surface incredibly long. And on top of that, obviously stays in the organism for extensive period of time.

No way that anyone could have predict it would be this contagious.
 
Revan said:
Probably one of the doctors @Arruda @Pogue Mahone might be able to reply to this.

My best (totally uninformed) guess is that there should be tests that detect it, but no idea if that happens for normal tests. Assuming that tests detect the antibodies, then yes. For example, you can get a test to see if you have a certain vaccine that you might have got decades ago. If on the other hand, the test checks only for the virus, probably no.
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I think that's the one, yeah. Will get the results at some point and, if it turns out it was that, it'd be fascinating considering the time frames.
 
Jim Beam said:
One thing is pretty much certain at this point, this fecker stays/survives on the surface incredibly long. And on top of that, obviously stays in the organism for extensive period of time.

No way that anyone could have predict it would be this contagious.
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well actually we still don’t know for sure how long it lasts on anything.
 
kouroux said:
I couldn't have said it better. A friend of mine told me to stop doing these home workouts because I would tire and hurt my immune system. Everyone thinks he's a scientist and a doctor these days. It's fecking doing my head in
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I remember years back a boozy/smoker pal reckoned that a lot of running was "Killing" me, and I was as bad off as them smoking and drinking.
Just bizarre logic.

In fact it's no logic, it's simply justifying their own laziness.
"Oh I would do exercise, but it's bad for you"

Or they hear of the below geezer, who died young, and ignore that it was his genetics that caused it. Not the running!
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Jim_Fixx
 
Jim Beam said:
One thing is pretty much certain at this point, this fecker stays/survives on the surface incredibly long. And on top of that, obviously stays in the organism for extensive period of time.

No way that anyone could have predict it would be this contagious.
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Aside from copper (please nobody act on this)
 
Sandikan said:
I remember years back a boozy/smoker pal reckoned that a lot of running was "Killing" me, and I was as bad off as them smoking and drinking.
Just bizarre logic.

In fact it's no logic, it's simply justifying their own laziness.
"Oh I would do exercise, but it's bad for you"

Or they hear of the below geezer, who died young, and ignore that it was his genetics that caused it. Not the running!
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Jim_Fixx
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People around here consume a nasty drug imported from Ethiopia called khat, I keep telling people to stop chewing it and smoking cigarettes but I'm basically told to feck off. It's time to get healthy and improve your immune system
 
Adamsk7 said:
well actually we still don’t know for sure how long it lasts on anything.
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There were already some studies, or better to call them theories since yeah, it hasn't been confirmed for certain. But, considering how contagious it is, I would be damn surprised if the end result doesn't prove it.
 
VintageWhatnots said:
Mortgage freezes will likely negatively affect their credit score, but yes in theory they could, if their lender allows it.

Why would any employer not apply for the 80% from the government? They don't exactly have to do a lot for it, and get to keep staff on, most of which will be happy with the 80%
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That’s not an ideal system with the mortgage freezes then. Seems stupid.

I think they will eventually, but a lot are refusing to pay staff until they get given the money by the government, which is likely to be the end of April. Plus there are a lot of businesses that have just decided now is the time to close permanently, meaning staff have lost jobs.
 
Revan said:
Probably one of the doctors @Arruda @Pogue Mahone might be able to reply to this.

My best (totally uninformed) guess is that there should be tests that detect it, but no idea if that happens for normal tests. Assuming that tests detect the antibodies, then yes. For example, you can get a test to see if you have a certain vaccine that you might have got decades ago. If on the other hand, the test checks only for the virus, probably no.
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The BBC "click" show aired on the w/e intimated that the tests for antibodies were currently being developed.
Also https://www.sciencemag.org/news/202...es-could-show-true-scale-coronavirus-pandemic suggest that the test virus test is not (currently) anti-body based.

Most likely then. that the test for 'have you got it" is different to the test for "have you had it".

EDIT: what @Arruda says a few posts down
 
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Heardy said:
Got the text a few hours ago but ignored it as assumed it was spam and the link was a virus or something
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Unfortunately so did millions of others. It's legit but Twitter is lighting up with people saying it looked to spammy to be real.
 
Pexbo said:
Apparently mortgage freezes won’t be a direct mark on your credit report however the months without any payments are likely to be picked up by the system as part of a continuity report.
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stepic said:
according to the FCA: 'Our guidance makes clear to firms that they should ensure that taking a payment holiday will not impact your credit score.'

however you will still get charged interest on the mortgage during the freeze, and most likely your mortgage payment will increase slightly after the 3 months to make up for it. so it's probably not really worth it unless you REALLY need it.
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That's good to hear, I know that wasn't clear a few days ago, a lot of people were very worried about the implications
 
Fener1907 said:
Just a quick question about that bolded bit - if somebody had it in, say, January and got over it with few to no symptoms, would they still be able to test positive for it in March?
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Thanks @Revan

Tests are being made by rtPCR, which looks for the virus' RNA. Hence no, if the infection has cleared you won't test positive.

I've heard of some IgG/IgM tests going around, but know little to nothing about them. This sort of test searches for antibodies and would, presumably, be able to tell if you have antibodies agains coronavirus. I expect these to become important in the future if they can tell the difference between who is already immune or not. It would be tremendous to know who had assymptomatic infection, and if research proves these people will be immune, imaginw the benefit. You'll have an increasingly large population that you know would be safe to go out and take the higher-risk jobs.
 
Dan_F said:
That’s not an ideal system with the mortgage freezes then. Seems stupid.

I think they will eventually, but a lot are refusing to pay staff until they get given the money by the government, which is likely to be the end of April. Plus there are a lot of businesses that have just decided now is the time to close permanently, meaning staff have lost jobs.
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Looks like this might have already been cleared up, judging by the replies above. So that's some good news.

Yes, worrying if businesses wait until the end of April to pay, it should be back paid, but that's a long time to wait, especially for households living paycheck to paycheck.

There isn't going to be a perfect system though, not without scrutinising the accounts and income of every single person in the UK. The 80% rule, if applied to both employees and the self employed, is the quickest fairest method we have really.

It absolutely has to include the self employed though, or 5m are going to be in a lot of shtick very soon.
 
I need to go shopping in Tesco. I have a face mask, should I wear it? Will I be the only one? Am I being ridiculous?
 
Revan said:
My best (totally uninformed) guess is that there should be tests that detect it, but no idea if that happens for normal tests. Assuming that tests detect the antibodies, then yes. For example, you can get a test to see if you have a certain vaccine that you might have got decades ago. If on the other hand, the test checks only for the virus, probably no.
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The antibody test is still in development so the current test is looking for active virus. They do say in the article that their next step is to start testing using the prototype kits.

That said, I would have thought by now some epidemiologists have already started going through February hospital ICU admissions/deaths looking for earlier infections that could have been Covid19.
 
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