SARS CoV-2 coronavirus / Covid-19 (No tin foil hat silliness please)

What the feck has gone on over the last few pages? People seem unclear about this.

Do NOT drink a lot of alcohol to become immune from Corona.
Yeah, am talking about a shot of absinthe as a disinfectant mouthwash not drinking the whole bottle, even then it probably wouldn’t work.
30 average drinks can kill you so don’t stay topped up on alcohol.
 
He's also assuming an infection rate of 1% of the general population, and then basically says that wouldn't be a big deal in the grand scheme of things.

What evidence do we have that the virus would stop there?


Ioannidis understands the defects of models used in Medicine at 1st order, but doesn't understand 2nd order effects/asymmetries. Being an academic, he doesn't understand decision-making under uncertainty & which decision is harmed LESS from model error.
 
But DO DRINK a lot of alcohol to forget about Coronavirus.
But drink high class alcohol (if you can afford it) otherwise the hangover might lead to that you think you have Covid-19.
My wine club emailed me yesterday to point out what an excellent opportunity this had given us to enjoy more wine in a leisurely manner in the comfort of our own homes. And that they had plenty of stock and were still doing deliveries...
 
India has fewer cases compared to Europe/UK. You should be less worried about the lady than you're worried of interaction with those from your own country.
India's testing protocol is non existent .... not anyones fault, is what it is, but I wouldn't take their published numbers very seriously. see VDO from a few page before
 
Wine is 12-14% ABV. Hand sanitisers need to be 60-70% to be effective.

The alcohol concentration required to kill the virus would also kill the human.
I’ll have a pint of sanitiser then please my good man :)
 
Can someone give me a quick run down on the lock down in Italy? Last I read was that most people were still going to work if not able to work from home, and social gatherings and whatnot banned.
@Jack-C20
Every shop or public amenity or is closed except grocery shops, pharmacies, tobacconists and newsagents.
You may only go outside for food, medical reasons, work or other situations of necessity. You have to have a form with you when you leave the house and your ID, in case you are stopped by police.
You are supposed to stay within your own Comune except for unavoidable reasons.
Outside spaces such as parks and playgrounds are closed.
You are not allowed to be outside in a group (more than two people). One person only to go into shops.
As of last night, only essential businesses/industries may continue operation, other factories have to shut down till April 3. Construction sites too, unless they're working on roads or health facilities.

I've just been looking at the newspapers and it sounds like you'll have to have your temperature checked if you go to a shop or a pharmacy, or if you're stopped outside by the police.
 
Nevermind career ending, he should be going to prison. That decision will cost thousands of lives.
 
Nevermind career ending, he should be going to prison. That decision will cost thousands of lives.


“those present” and including quotes, why do people share such trash? I mean, I get why scumbag Morgan does it but...

Kin ell man, the UK government won’t be going to prison ffs, as has been made clear every step of the way, they are following scientific advice.
 
I don't understand the logic of stopping people from going out for a run. Italy and France have stopped people from doing this.
 
I don't understand the logic of stopping people from going out for a run. Italy and France have stopped people from doing this.
Seems like over-reacting, however, general population is very keen on breaking the rules. You can bet your life that some, instead of going out for a run, will get together for a smoke or just a friendly chat without keeping the recommended 1-2 meters distance.
 
I don't understand the logic of stopping people from going out for a run. Italy and France have stopped people from doing this.

It's annoying but i think a case of a few people ruining it for everyone. It's not a ban on running, but on any outdoor physical activity. So many were going for a walk 'for exercise' but really just wandering about to get out of the house.

I also see a lot of people walking up and down all day with the same shopping bag pretending to go to the supermarket.
 
At this point Italy had only tested 42,062 at that stage. UK tested 72,818 plus.

On March 11th, Italy had tested 73,154 with 12,462 confirmed cases and 827 deaths.

Could I ask where you got this data from? I'm trying to compile a list on how many tests different countries are doing and this would be very helpful. For any other countries you might have it for as well.

Thanks!

I've lived in Japan for what would be called a long time now and I can tell you that recently many Japanese have decided to believe the govt here that wants the Olympics at all costs - even potentially the lives of citizens and residents. Japanese people are now getting into the mode of there's nothing to see, Japan is the outlier, look at how bad everywhere else is, etc. Over a 1,000 cases and 35 deaths - looks much better than elsewhere doesn't it?

I'll tell you why the stats are so low for a country with 125 million people - around 121 people per 1 million are being tested. If that. That's right, no testing no problem! Doctors who have been exposed to patients with COVID-19 have been refused tests to give you some idea of this disgraceful 'strategy.' Most people who have symptoms similar to the virus have been denied tests and told to stay at home. As somebody who lives here I can tell you I don't feel very safe with this official policy.

And same for this as well please, any chance you could send me the source? Would be very much appreciated.
 
Pure stupidity and panic. A political decision rather than a scientific one.

I guess the only argument there from their side is “people can’t be trusted”.

Whether its right or wrong to enact those measures, I think what people are increasingly showing is that they can't be trusted. The actions have been incredibly stupid.
 
It's annoying but i think a case of a few people ruining it for everyone. It's not a ban on running, but on any outdoor physical activity. So many were going for a walk 'for exercise' but really just wandering about to get out of the house.

I also see a lot of people walking up and down all day with the same shopping bag pretending to go to the supermarket.

People have to be able to get out for fresh air. So many Italians live in apartments. They must be going crazy.
 
People have to be able to get out for fresh air. So many Italians live in apartments. They must be going crazy.

Yup, that’s what many don’t get about FULL lockdown, it doesn’t need to go anything close to that far to be “successful”. If you find people congregating in large group, fine them big fines.

But that said, 200 spread out on the hill at Bondi isn’t where people are going to pick up or spread Covid-19. That fact isn’t stopping a massive panic there about it though, or mass shaming online.

Closing public transport, bars and shops is enough.
 
Stay safe. All bets are off in situations like these indeed


Health care workers should have special hours dedicated for their shopping for me, the work they do is unvaluable, they shouldn't have to worry about finding groceries
The Tesco where I work (Barrow-in-Furness) is opening an hour early today at 10am purely for health workers and our own staff.
I would hope that is the same across the country.
 
Thank you for a detailed reply, I appreciate you taking the time to explain yourself. It definitely makes a better discussion, than dismissing the various links I've provided as biased.

Just to make it clear, in my opinion, the Chinese scientific community did all it could in dealing with the virus (and still is). Just like doctors in the rest of the world, some of them make mistakes.
The issue is not with these types of actions. It is with the authorities silencing those professionals who raised the alarm as early as mid-November.
I haven't seen any western government threaten doctors not to publish their opinions. So, in that sense, the Chinese bare a lot of responsibility, beyond any mistake made by any professional or official.
I could be wrong, but to me, of all mistakes done since day one, the one silencing Chinese doctors has the biggest effect on the entire world. If we (the world) had another month or two to prepare for the pandemic, surely many lives would have been saved.

Since Wikipedia is a reliable source for you, please just take a quick look at these:

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Liu_Wen_(doctor)

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Xie_Linka

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Li_Wenliang#Whistleblower_in_2019–20_coronavirus_outbreak

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2019–20_coronavirus_pandemic_in_mainland_China#Censorship,_propaganda,_and_police_responses

For the first statement, perhaps they're not threatened with a complete media blackout (then again, neither was the Chinese doctor). But as I've tried to say previously, multiple doctors have been fired and then struck off in the UK after whistleblowing about unsafe patient practices or staffing etc in the NHS. Doctors with previous exemplary records end up suddenly with a whole host of complaints out of nowhere. Suddenly nobody wants to hire them in the country. These stories are barely shared in the media.

I think there's also a habit of some people to caricature what China and the Communist party actually is. Are they a repressive one state country? Yes of course. Does everything come from the central party? Of course not, anyone who thinks a country of 1.5 billion can be controlled in that way is not living in reality. The provinces actually have quite a bit of leeway and even within them, there are governmental structures filtering all the way down to local level. Some people seem to think that this doctor raised the alarm and Xi himself shut him up.

One of the problems with dictatorships is that you don't want to go to your superior with bad news. Hence the Wuhan local government initially attempting to shut him up and then rightly getting reprimanded for their actions afterwards.

Is it how I'd want to live my life? Not personally. But it isn't quite the caricature many seem to think.

As for the second statement, the world had a long time to prepare and did almost nothing. We all heard about it by early January at the latest. We had our first cases by late Jan at the latest. Yet did nothing. An extra month would have just mean we'd have spent an extra month watching Asia suffer thinking it could never affect us here.

I think there is also an element of outcome bias. We know its now a pandemic and therefore we analyse all previous actions within that particular lens. Historical events are often seen in this way. So silly of Pompey to do X, Mark Anthony to do Y, Napoleon to do Z. Of course that would be the outcome. But at the time, that isn't obvious.

In most countries, if a few doctors thought they noticed a cluster of cases of a disease, they'd probably be told to get on and get some more evidence. Or I guess they'd probably involve the local public health team to investigate. What they probably wouldn't do immediately is declare a national emergency and close all borders.

I think that must be borne in mind. Even while we (rightly) criticise China's HR record, government and initial inadequate response.
 
I don't understand the logic of stopping people from going out for a run. Italy and France have stopped people from doing this.

Unless I'm mistaken you can still run in France, you have to do near your home. Cycling has been banned/discouraged though.
 


So what's going on here? Germany has halved the number of new infection compared to the previous day. Either just luck or social distancing works really well there. Bans on going out are only just being introduced right now so that can't be it. With Austria it's more plausible the government's action are starting to show an effect as they acted much earlier.
 
People have to be able to get out for fresh air. So many Italians live in apartments. They must be going crazy.
There are several large blocks of flats near our vet's surgery which have been having work done on the outside for a long time, and they're completely enclosed with scaffolding covered with plastic sheeting - so those people can't even look out their windows. Ironically, the work is to install balconies for everyone.
 
There are several large blocks of flats near our vet's surgery which have been having work done on the outside for a long time, and they're completely enclosed with scaffolding covered with plastic sheeting - so those people can't even look out their windows. Ironically, the work is to install balconies for everyone.


Perhaps they can get onto the roof.
 
That’s excellent news. Should be legislated for a period of time.
Definitely, I can see this being implemented longer term alongside further measures to help those who really it maybe leave the 1st hour every morning to health workers and the vulnerable.
As I driver, we finish our shifts at either 6 or 7pm and there is literally nothing left for us.
 
Nevermind career ending, he should be going to prison. That decision will cost thousands of lives.

Piers Morgan was the editor that ran a story on the front page about UK troops torturing Iraqis, yet was actually a picture from a Territorial Army Unit in the UK - no doubt that cost British lives.

his career went from strength to strength, and is now the most hypocritical scumbag in the media.
 


Every single one of Bill Mitchell’s tweets should have those first four words as the precursor. He should also be limited to five words per tweet.
 
Piers Morgan was the editor that ran a story on the front page about UK troops torturing Iraqis, yet was actually a picture from a Territorial Army Unit in the UK - no doubt that cost British lives.

his career went from strength to strength, and is now the most hypocritical scumbag in the media.

While Morgan is obviously a tiresome gobshite that can and almost always should be ignored @shippersunbound is the political editor at the Sunday Times. He's also got an axe to grind but is a bit more respected as a journalist.
 


So what's going on here? Germany has halved the number of new infection compared to the previous day. Either just luck or social distancing works really well there. Bans on going out are only just being introduced right now so that can't be it. With Austria it's more plausible the government's action are starting to show an effect as they acted much earlier.

Could also be a slowdown after a huge amount of testing, they have pushed the limit on kits and testing labs and will ramp up again soon. The numbers will vary as they will wildly as they do another 160k tests soon. They could find a bunch more then find hardly any later in the week as they test faster than the spread.
 
That chilling video of the hospital in Italy makes me angry that life is still fairly normal where I am. The fact that my company even feels it necessary for it continue through these times bemuses me. So many have shown how much they value others' lives and safety.
 
That chilling video of the hospital in Italy makes me angry that life is still fairly normal where I am. The fact that my company even feels it necessary for it continue through these times bemuses me. So many have shown how much they value others' lives and safety.
Link?
 
I don't understand the logic of stopping people from going out for a run. Italy and France have stopped people from doing this.

I suspect because Western Governments are realising that you cannot trust us dumb feckers to take any notice of advice. For example the National Trust closed their shops, cafes and houses some time ago but made the decision to keep the grounds open and free of parking charge to allow folks to still exercise and walk the dogs etc. This morning they have had to go back on that and where they have gates to the entrances of NT properties they will be locked to prevent access purely because WE and I include all of us in that are too immoral and selfish to maintain social distancing.

And folks say it’s the governments fault. Like feck it is . It’s my fault and your fault and everyone else’s fault all because we know better.