I only pointed out another important statistic (which is missing from the UK Government dashboard aside from the daily number). I was not commenting on how well the NHS is or is not coping. In response though, yes, the high number is very alarming indeed.
SARS CoV-2 coronavirus / Covid-19 (No tin foil hat silliness please)
- Thread starter Don't Kill Bill
- Start date
I only pointed out another important statistic (which is missing from the UK Government dashboard aside from the daily number). I was not commenting on how well the NHS is or is not coping. In response though, yes, the high number is very alarming indeed.
We have been doing this for over a year and to date it hasn't proven to be how Nazi Germany started. In fact it has been a great reassurance as you get automated contact alerts through the same app. It was even better when you could only scan in if vaccinated. That said some sensible pubs still require you to be vaccinated which are the only ones I'll go to.
NSW reducing restriction at the same time as Omicron has destroyed confidence and people have started to stay home in droves. NYE was very quiet and even many young people stayed home. My son is 23 and he stayed home with us as did all his mates for the first time in forever.
Many of the measures you dislike give you more freedom, not remove it.
Just had a great New Year and everywhere we went we had to scan in and also bars and resturaunts required us to have our vaccine passports scanned. Super easy and no hassle at all. For those unvaccinated if they supplied proof of a negative test result with 72 hours they were allowed in too.
We have been doing this for over a year and to date it hasn't proven to be how Nazi Germany started. In fact it has been a great reassurance as you get automated contact alerts through the same app. It was even better when you could only scan in if vaccinated. That said some sensible pubs still require you to be vaccinated which are the only ones I'll go to.
NSW reducing restriction at the same time as Omicron has destroyed confidence and people have started to stay home in droves. NYE was very quiet and even many young people stayed home. My son is 23 and he stayed home with us as did all his mates for the first time in forever.
Many of the measures you dislike give you more freedom, not remove it.
Summertime and still not feeling like Im living in a prison nation the way its being portayed elsewhere, if this is prison give me a life sentence.
Hope everyone had a great New year and that things get better for everyone in 2022
I was in Germany recently with their 3G system and it was brilliant. Heaven forbid we ask people to prove they aren't going to infect 80% of the pub
I feel like a bit of a dick for constantly sharing tweets minimising the threat of omicron because, as @Anustart89 said, even if the overall outcomes are less severe this wave is going to cause an absolute shit show for the health service. That’s basically guaranteed at this point. Under staffed over worked and an inevitable negative effect on all health services.
Still, though, it is good to kick 2022 off with some hope. Look at that red line!
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Whatever about the differences in variants, that is an absolute boot to the jaw of any anti-vax moron.
The SA data is great but there’s two key caveats: We have a much older population and they have twice our excess deaths so previous waves have hospitalised/killed those susceptible. The next 3/4 weeks are going to be very difficult. Cases and Admissions are increasing rapidly in over 60s:
The saving grace is the level of care needed when in hospital - that does seem to have changed with ventilation/ICU not really increasing:
However, we’re already at 1/3rd of the peak of those in hospital as last year (a slightly higher percentage are incidental but the bollocks from the daily Mail saying 70% are incidental is just that: bollocks - around 65% are there with COVID as primary diagnosis) and cases are still going up - admissions now hitting 2,300 - they peaked at 3,800 last January - I have no doubt that we’ll get higher than last winter but thankfully I think we’ll have far fewer deaths. That still means a ridiculous strain on the NHS yet again plus the fact so many are off/isolating. Yes hopefully everything will look much rosier from February but the next month is going to be tough.
The saving grace is the level of care needed when in hospital - that does seem to have changed with ventilation/ICU not really increasing:
However, we’re already at 1/3rd of the peak of those in hospital as last year (a slightly higher percentage are incidental but the bollocks from the daily Mail saying 70% are incidental is just that: bollocks - around 65% are there with COVID as primary diagnosis) and cases are still going up - admissions now hitting 2,300 - they peaked at 3,800 last January - I have no doubt that we’ll get higher than last winter but thankfully I think we’ll have far fewer deaths. That still means a ridiculous strain on the NHS yet again plus the fact so many are off/isolating. Yes hopefully everything will look much rosier from February but the next month is going to be tough.
Cases in Ireland are bonkers right now. It’s so damn infectious. I know people who’ve gotten it who haven’t even gone to public gatherings and think it was just in a shop or grabbing a coffee. Interesting few weeks ahead for us.
Yeah, it’s insanely contagious. A really noticeable difference with this wave is when one person catches it, then it’s basically guaranteed the entire household will as well. Every single person I know with covid right now has taken down everyone around them.
Numbers are insane. All I'm hearing about are people I know that got away with it til now and have recently caught it.
Hospital and ICU numbers down today with ICU the lowest I've seen in a while. Those are surely going to increase with 20k+ a day new infections, right?
Am I the only one who likes the QR codes at pubs? Table service instead of wrestling sweaty blokes to get a disinterested bartenders attention? Long may it continue.
The table service is brilliant but I've not been going to pubs much because of the, you know, pandemic running wild and all. They also close at 8pm here now.
I recently had to experience the latter after well over a year of table service only when out, my god I will never go to a busy bar again once this is all over.
Here’s a head-melting stat. We’ve had more covid cases in Ireland over the Christmas holidays than we did in the whole of 2020!
No, you're not. It's been great and I hope it stays.
So are we fecked? It’s so hard to keep up.
Yes. Definitely. We just don’t know by how much. As per the last two waves, though, we seem absolutely determined as a nation to push this as far as it will go.
Is there any evidence anywhere that restrictions are effective against omicron?
It isn’t magical. It’s a virus that spreads from person to person. So restrictions which put fewer people in close proximity to each other will obviously slow spread. Here’s hoping we don’t end up needing to generate the evidence you’re looking for.
This excel file is what I'd be looking at: https://www.england.nhs.uk/statisti...d-admissions-and-beds-publication-211230.xlsx
(Just look at the bottom row if you can't be bothered taking it all in)
Those are all the available figures for December 2021.
Basically, if you look at the overall bed occupancy number rather than just covid admissions, there isn't much (if any) spike to speak of. A lot of the negative spin will focus on the second row of data (covid occupancy). But I think the bottom row of totals that's most important (covid plus non-covid occupancy).
Since people seem to be getting discharged quicker than they're being admitted (and since so many appear to be incidental infections), that means fewer patients in hospital over the course of the month. This isn't like the Delta wave when a covid admission would likely mean a lengthy stay requiring specialist treatment. You can see from the above table that the all-included bed occupancy rate is actually trending downwards despite the current wave.
The real strain on the NHS will be related to staff availability. Omicron is going to be a short sharp pinch. At this point, it's just about hoping that the pinch doesn't leave a bruise or draw blood. But given this variant's relatively mildness, I think we can be hopeful that many will be fit for work again fairly quickly.
| 01/12/2021 | 02/12/2021 | 03/12/2021 | 04/12/2021 | 05/12/2021 | 06/12/2021 | 07/12/2021 | 08/12/2021 | 09/12/2021 | 10/12/2021 | 11/12/2021 | 12/12/2021 | 13/12/2021 | 14/12/2021 | 15/12/2021 | 16/12/2021 | 17/12/2021 | 18/12/2021 | 19/12/2021 | 20/12/2021 | 21/12/2021 | 22/12/2021 | 23/12/2021 | 24/12/2021 | 25/12/2021 | 26/12/2021 | 27/12/2021 | 28/12/2021 | |
| Adult General and Acute beds - occupied by non-COVID-19 patients (as at 08:00) | 79,624 | 80,902 | 80,401 | 79,382 | 80,240 | 80,720 | 81,526 | 81,558 | 81,513 | 80,228 | 78,960 | 79,504 | 80,135 | 81,290 | 81,076 | 80,591 | 79,412 | 77,494 | 77,002 | 78,063 | 78,413 | 76,384 | 74,517 | 71,212 | 62,700 | 63,168 | 66,940 | 70,621 |
| Adult General and Acute beds - occupied by confirmed COVID-19 patients (as at 08:00) | 4,552 | 4,612 | 4,548 | 4,475 | 4,593 | 4,667 | 4,635 | 4,645 | 4,707 | 4,668 | 4,623 | 4,705 | 4,891 | 4,868 | 4,772 | 4,765 | 4,763 | 4,699 | 4,826 | 5,058 | 5,230 | 5,320 | 5,225 | 5,430 | 5,188 | 5,482 | 6,397 | 7,157 |
| Mechanical Ventilation beds - occupied by confirmed COVID-19 patients (as at 08:00) | 773 | 774 | 783 | 775 | 770 | 793 | 779 | 778 | 792 | 793 | 785 | 788 | 795 | 795 | 786 | 783 | 789 | 767 | 767 | 768 | 757 | 745 | 747 | 742 | 745 | 758 | 776 | 758 |
| Adult Critical Care beds - occupied by confirmed COVID-19 patients (as at 08:00) | 868 | 870 | 866 | 854 | 850 | 862 | 894 | 890 | 883 | 883 | 934 | 958 | 893 | 925 | 932 | 960 | 875 | 863 | 850 | 848 | 818 | 809 | 850 | 806 | 800 | 822 | 866 | 835 |
| Adult Critical Care beds - occupied by non-COVID-19 patients (as at 08:00) | 2,649 | 2,656 | 2,683 | 2,627 | 2,525 | 2,494 | 2,599 | 2,678 | 2,682 | 2,661 | 2,590 | 2,519 | 2,491 | 2,657 | 2,635 | 2,641 | 2,598 | 2,538 | 2,390 | 2,332 | 2,455 | 2,474 | 2,426 | 2,431 | 2,198 | 2,122 | 3,763 | 2,255 |
| Total on date | 88,466 | 89,814 | 89,281 | 88,113 | 88,978 | 89,536 | 90,433 | 90,549 | 90,577 | 89,233 | 87,892 | 88,474 | 89,205 | 90,535 | 90,201 | 89,740 | 88,437 | 86,361 | 85,835 | 87,069 | 87,673 | 85,732 | 83,765 | 80,621 | 71,631 | 72,352 | 78,742 | 81,626 |
(Just look at the bottom row if you can't be bothered taking it all in)
Those are all the available figures for December 2021.
Basically, if you look at the overall bed occupancy number rather than just covid admissions, there isn't much (if any) spike to speak of. A lot of the negative spin will focus on the second row of data (covid occupancy). But I think the bottom row of totals that's most important (covid plus non-covid occupancy).
Since people seem to be getting discharged quicker than they're being admitted (and since so many appear to be incidental infections), that means fewer patients in hospital over the course of the month. This isn't like the Delta wave when a covid admission would likely mean a lengthy stay requiring specialist treatment. You can see from the above table that the all-included bed occupancy rate is actually trending downwards despite the current wave.
The real strain on the NHS will be related to staff availability. Omicron is going to be a short sharp pinch. At this point, it's just about hoping that the pinch doesn't leave a bruise or draw blood. But given this variant's relatively mildness, I think we can be hopeful that many will be fit for work again fairly quickly.
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Will be interesting to see the outcome in Xian - cases consistently in the hundreds daily in one city (first time in China since Wuhan), and they have implemented a full Wuhan-style lockdown, no going out even for groceries.
Will it work, and how long does it need to be in place.
Not sure any other country is going for the same strategy.
Well to be fair, the Chinese like locking up and controlling their own people.
Contender for Where have you been for the last two years? Thread of the year.
The up to date "Daily admissions and beds" list is at:
Statistics » COVID-19 Hospital Activity (england.nhs.uk)
Covid beds in use gets updated daily (by most but not all hospitals), admissions are usually updated a couple of days later. Currently up to date on occupied beds to 31 December (but the 28th on admissions)
The numbers are rising fast this week. London ahead of the others, but North West following fast.
To understand the detail you need some of the other background data that generally updates weekly.
The excel file is from that page, about two thirds down. My table is based on the most up-to-date data available.
By the same token other countries like killing theirs
Yep, I can see the file you linked to is one of the main datasets - today's release but the file you linked is showing the 28th December stats for covid beds in use. As far as I can see your table stops at 28 Dec as well - or is that a quirk of my browser?
The other file I mentioned gives covid occupied beds and covid MV beds to the 31st Dec. It's only a subset of the main dataset, it gets updated faster, though comes with more caveats. The difference hasn't mattered much until omicron, people would normally have only considered the fully classified data, but that raw hospital stat is getting watched as well now.
To be fair the Chinese are doing this as much to control and isolate their population as they are to save lives. You can't transfer the results of that to anywhere else.
The whole point was to show non-covid beds in use in addition to covid beds in use, so as to give a picture of how quickly people are discharged and balancing them out against incidental infections.
The dataset for that only goes up to 28 December.
I'd guess that the average Chinese citizen would have had fewer restrictions on gathering, eating, and going to school since ~April 2020, than most of the rest of the world.
China has been completely closed off to the world since this all started, exactly as planned. Nobody in, nobody out. Strict lockdowns to make sure people fear the virus and appreciate the protection.
A Western made virus that the CCP is working hard to keep you safe from, is the narrative being portrayed there (I did 6 years in China and still know plenty of people there)
One for people who enjoy odd graphics. Looks like most of the early omicron waves travelled out from London along the M4 and the M6.
With Omicron being so infectious a combination of restrictions are even more needed to minimise the spread. All airborne viruses will be restricted by such measures to varying degrees. Witness flu being vastly reduced during this pandemic.
Anecdotally look at the difference between Australian states with those with the greatest restriction having fewer covid cases. Admittedly may of these started from a much lower base (also largely due largely to their earlier lockdowns). Still hard to look past NSW, who hugely eased restrictions as Omicron hit, who have gone from 1k to 25k daily cases in the blink of an eye compared to Victoria who have 7k daily cases.
Vaccination, third shots, distancing, masks and all restrictions all play a role in minimising infections but one on their own will be far less effective.
For the bolded part - I lived there for a year a long while ago, my father worked there for about 10 years. So we know a few people, both locals and foreigners. If you want some anti-CCP cred, it seems he has now been permanently denied a visa without explanation and can never meet his friends again.
One of the foreign families we knew is still there (and it's reflected in the official figures of ~1m foreigners still inside). A previously apolitical local guy we knew has become a Xi cultist, so the propaganda seems to be working.
Lockdowns have been pretty highly publicised, time-bound, and limited to single cities. There was one in Guangzhou, the Disneyland thing in Shanghai generated international headlines. A few others I can't remember, none seemed to last more than 2-4 weeks. Now Xian.
Whatever you may think of their govt or its motivations, it's pretty indisputable that their strategy has kept deaths down to a level not seen elsewhere, at least before omicron. Which was the original question I was responding to - can a lockdown beat omicron.
As Australia opens up to mass infection, likely infected people are going pharmacy to pharmacy in search for rapid tests further spreading the virus as there is no centralised system to order from
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At least one broadsheet breaking that masks in classrooms will be back
So I tested positive via a PCR done on Boxing day, despite providing negative daily lateral flow tests in the 7 days prior. I was completely asymptomatic. I then started showing symptoms on the 28th and felt pretty rough. My lateral flows were still negative.
My symptoms seemed to vanish as quickly as they arrived on the 29th. I did a lateral flow which finally showed positive.
I've felt absolutely fine since the 29th and did my day 6 lateral flow yesterday which returned negative. Did my day 7 this morning, expecting a negative result and an end to isolation but it returned positive. Wtf? What a kick in the dick.
My symptoms seemed to vanish as quickly as they arrived on the 29th. I did a lateral flow which finally showed positive.
I've felt absolutely fine since the 29th and did my day 6 lateral flow yesterday which returned negative. Did my day 7 this morning, expecting a negative result and an end to isolation but it returned positive. Wtf? What a kick in the dick.
Two people I work close with have tested positive. One of them only realised he had it after going to McDonald’s and couldn’t taste anything (not a bad thing in this case). Did a PCR and was positive but said he was negative for about a week even when he had a cough.
My second work mate has feel bad all week, no symptoms other than a blocked nose. Had muscle pains but thought it was from doing too much at the gym. He tested positive yesterday after daily negative tests.
I’m still testing negative for about a week but I had a sore throat Christmas morning until the 28th, cough for 3 days but a mild one. My wife had a very feint second line on her lateral flow test so is going to get a PCR done. Her only symptoms are a migraine and muscle pain.
My second work mate has feel bad all week, no symptoms other than a blocked nose. Had muscle pains but thought it was from doing too much at the gym. He tested positive yesterday after daily negative tests.
I’m still testing negative for about a week but I had a sore throat Christmas morning until the 28th, cough for 3 days but a mild one. My wife had a very feint second line on her lateral flow test so is going to get a PCR done. Her only symptoms are a migraine and muscle pain.