SARS CoV-2 coronavirus / Covid-19 (No tin foil hat silliness please)
- Thread starter Don't Kill Bill
- Start date
Covid mutates while in a person. It can only mutate effectively when its infecting someone. The probability of these mutations happening rises when more people are infected. The mutations can happen even when infection numbers are low but the possibility of mutation increases with increased infection numbers. Every day you see rises in infections you see the chance of mutations rising. Its also possible for people who have had covid to become reinfected and in reduced numbers its possible for vaccinated people to catch covid. Unfortunately we are a long long way from having the majority of the worlds population vaccinated and that simply means we will see new variants appearing in the future and with that the chance of variants that could possibly have increased immunity to the vaccines.
There are lots and lots of places left for covid to hide in and transform.
WHO gets hammered a lot but they are absolutely right in their continual message of the huge need to get poorer countries vaccination rates up. A richer country might get covid completely under control but if a variant appears in a lower vaccinated country that can side step the vaccines it will eventually infect the well vaccinated country.
The guy's an idiot.
It wouldn't surprise me if he dropped lack of TFL funding in their somewhere also.
Every week he cries about something, if he is that concerned, why hasn't he cancelled his own NYE event in London?
Further mutations should be less severe. A virus job is to infect, replicate, but ultimately survive, so if it kills the host, it dies with it, which defeats its own purpose. One of the ways it survives over time is to mutate into a less severe form. Reading the epidemiology of the Spanish flu would alleviate a lot of unfounded fears about future mutations, and there’s a reasonable probability that the quicker we move through them, the quicker we will just consider Covid a seasonal virus and not a major threat to life. The connotations of the word “mutation” are pretty negative, it’s not the nicest word, but they are a way out.
Probably not that long away from having the majority of the world vaccinated or infected. Which achieves the same goal, ultimately.
Well considering we are mostly vaccinated
and heavily booster jabbed up
we shouldn’t see a “rise in proportion” anywhere near…..remotely anywhere near, a rise like before the vaccines came in.
as for rises In hospital cases in London, it’s a City of several million people, of course cases and hospital admissions are going to be higher there, but as far as the nation goes, hospital admissions have gone up 2%
at the height of the second wave we had upwards of 50,000 people admitted in our hospitals with Covid
I know we still need to be cautious of course, we are still studying our findings of new variants and progress of vaccines…..but overall things are overwhelmingly positive in our progress….yet we keep having panic scaremongering news which I feel with where we are at is incredibly unnecessary and quite frankly ridiculous
Add this paragraph to this thread's long list of fecking stupid comments.
It's my in-law's 60th. There are 27 people here. Indoors. Every single person had a bemused look on their face when I asked where the sanitizer is. We are in the minority folks. It's happened. At least in South Africa it has.
The issue being they'd get it and not take any precautions and infect others.
You can't win with these people.
Yer man in the grey sweatshirt badly needs a beating.
His door will be getting one about 5am next Monday.
Impossible they do anything before New Year surely?
The amount of places that have taken bookings etc
They seem like such triers.
Have you seen the number of cancellations the industry is already dealing with? At least a lockdown would surely come with financial support. Currently they’ve essentially scared people away while hanging businesses out to dry.
I'd have a tiny bit of respect for Boris, if he came out and told them all to fk off
That's the plan though.
Enforce a Lockdown by default, this way the government don't have to take responsibility financially.
It's all been designed to scare people and have them focus on boosters rather than going out.
And it is working.
He’ll come out and offer them all a cup of teaI'd have a tiny bit of respect for Boris, if he came out and told them all to fk off
Probably get 2 or 3 pregnant
Yes I've seen they are already suffering but I would imagine if you asked they'd sooner stay open until new year then close with support?
Literally the busiest night of the year, even if some stay at home?
Who’s they? Some nightclubs? Some bars? I bet if you canvassed the entire hospitality industry there would be very strong support for lockdown and support.
As I said before, currently places are half empty or worse or suffering severe staff shortages. A couple of big nights aren’t going to rescue them assuming they reach capacity, which most places won’t.
Hospitality in general really. I'd imagine they'd like to be open for New Year if they had the choice?
I was chatting with the staff in the bar last night and they were saying they’ve had loads of booking cancellations and that there’d been nobody in there until mid afternoon, no lunch trade at all.
What’s the context of the choice though?
Normal nights, with all staff at capacity? Of course they would.
The stress of not knowing how many to stock for, whether you will have enough staff, if it’s even safe for your staff and customers to reach capacity? The sheer uncertainty they’re facing right now, I think most would bite your hand off for the support.
They’re being sold down the river right now, customers are being advised to stay at home and the hospitality industry has no choice but to stay open and soak up the cost.
Cheers you have given me some reading material there.
That's a good point to be honest. Yeah I'll have it. I still don't see the government trying to pull this before New Year. Would create carnage with the public and you'd end up with huge street/house parties
I fully believe they are just biding their time until after the festive season and early Jan something significant will happen.
For some reason I have it in my head that we still have a decent chunk of the worlds population who are unvaccinated but also who havent had the virus. Not sure why I am thinking that, I will go have a look at whats really going on.
Exactly. Look at this for example:
It’s the story across the industry. I’ve still got friends in the industry and the general consensus seems to be that there’s loads of work because there’s a massive shortage of chefs and front of house but they’re all moaning that they’re getting sod all tips (which pretty much pays for Christmas in my experience) because turn over is so low.
My Omicron Diary: Day 0 (virus setting up camp)
No fever. No cough. No fatigue. No muscle aches. No loss of taste or smell. Feeling fine.
No fever. No cough. No fatigue. No muscle aches. No loss of taste or smell. Feeling fine.
For people interested in what the modelling currently looks like for the UK. Do read the yes, but and other assumptions in the SPI-M report itself before taking it as a prediction though - it isn't, it's a what if document awaiting some blanks to be filled in and other data to be firmed up.
Important to realise that those error bars are massive. If you're a gambler who wants it over with, you go for Plan A - and hope for the best with 3k admissions/day and 600 deaths/day. Beware though - if you're wrong, it's very grim indeed (and even the optimist version isn't pretty)
Important to realise that those error bars are massive. If you're a gambler who wants it over with, you go for Plan A - and hope for the best with 3k admissions/day and 600 deaths/day. Beware though - if you're wrong, it's very grim indeed (and even the optimist version isn't pretty)
That guy in the grey hoodie, how much pleasure it would have given me to see him clobbered.
Was there cumulative numbers somewhere also? Peak numbers are less important.
Error bars are massive and don’t make any case for Plan B. Based on that model it’s either A or C you should go for.
This was in our local main newspaper today.
Its probably something most of you already have a feel for but because down here we have been so isolated from lots of problems for so long we end up with a slightly more pessimistic view. This is a more positive view going forward, it is NZ centric but might be an interesting read for others hoping for a more positive future outlook.
https://www.nzherald.co.nz/nz/covid...es-says-professor/JE4FJGYMBZJ4BN3VXQJFM2XB6M/
Its probably something most of you already have a feel for but because down here we have been so isolated from lots of problems for so long we end up with a slightly more pessimistic view. This is a more positive view going forward, it is NZ centric but might be an interesting read for others hoping for a more positive future outlook.
https://www.nzherald.co.nz/nz/covid...es-says-professor/JE4FJGYMBZJ4BN3VXQJFM2XB6M/
The Dutch have been put into full lockdown again until the 14th January, everything including schools shut
Crucially it starts with the idea that once infected, omicron is similar to delta in severity, the signals out of SA remain better than that. Because of the different population groups - age, vaccine, past infection, boosters etc - it's really hard to know how that maps to the UK, but I'm not willing to give up on it!
That's where the gamblers and Plan A are betting really. Wait for the first data from London/Denmark about boosters and hospitalisations before jumping. Be ready for the shock of a Plan C soon after Christmas, but hope that with voluntary behaviour change we can buy just enough time to wait for some more data.
Meanwhile I hope that we're getting boosters into the remaining unboosted over 70s who can't/don't want to use the big vaccine hubs, because that's another major bit of the "buy a little time" equation.