They don't make a case for any of them. You can't make a decision with this, I hope it isn't what the government is having to rely on.
SARS CoV-2 coronavirus / Covid-19 (No tin foil hat silliness please)
- Thread starter Don't Kill Bill
- Start date
They don't make a case for any of them. You can't make a decision with this, I hope it isn't what the government is having to rely on.
Be interesting to see if this also factors in future decisions. Can’t compare SA to here blah blah blah but still…
Dumb question but could omicron affect people differently so therefore not requiring hospital admission to the same degree?
Is it true it attacks the airwaves rather than lungs and whilst people can and will be adversely affected the immune systems tend to cope better with a runny nose Vs something that goes for the lungs?
Is it true it attacks the airwaves rather than lungs and whilst people can and will be adversely affected the immune systems tend to cope better with a runny nose Vs something that goes for the lungs?
Just my own general observation lots of people are avoiding going out went to a usually very busy shopping mall to buy presents and it was at about 20% so kinda good, but that said a hipster coffee shop : restaurant near I love had like 30 people all crammed outside eating and drinking for 5 hours a few days ago. The place is the size of your local grocery store so can only imagine how many were inside.
Curious about those that say can’t compare South Africa to here… ok they have a younger population, we have a higher vaccination rate.
They have significantly more people with HIV/AIDS and worse healthcare for those not on private treatment. We have very low HIV rate and very good/world class public healthcare.
So surely we can take positives from the fact that Omicron was much less severe there than here.
It is important to make a more general point (not necessarily directed at that model or tweet) that large error bars which represent frequentist confidence intervals do not necessarily suggest bad data.
If a natural process has large variation, then it will often lead to larger error bars unless you can obtain a very large number of samples. The reverse is also true. You can have a situation where the bars are very small but you have a minimum sample size and/or only happened to sample for a short period of time whereby the process happened to fixate around a particular set of values. For example this can be problematic when sampling long period intermittent signals i.e. "bursts" with long periods of "nothingness".
As an aside, there are signals which have short-term correlations between each point in the signal. If you want to obtain independent samples, contrary to intuition, you actually want to sample slowly and for a very very long period of time to be able to capture the physics correctly. This differs to the case to reproduce the signal where you would then need to sample quickly and exceed the Nyquist requirement. Another issue to consider as well is that, assuming a process is steady, when you sample it over a given period of time or space, you inevitably capture less data at the extreme ends and so the tails of the subsequent distribution are more difficult to reproduce correctly.
It’s always the guys with the neck beards who decline to wear the masks. If anything they should be embracing them and not for medical reasons
The main reason you have to be cautious about comparisons is that they had a wave of a variant (beta) that we didn’t get at all over here which has some mutations in common with omicron that aren’t in delta/alpha etc (or original covid, that the vaccines are based on)
Also their delta wave ended. Even UK's hasn't, so they had more immunity already at that point. And most of their vaccinations have been done after delta wave, further increasing the immunity.
Yeah, good point. Vaccinations on top of infection is gold standard immunity.
My first day out of isolation today.
I am double jabbed with AZ and tested positive early last week. I've had strange symptoms, the first day just felt wiped out tired. Then a few days of random coughing, loss of appetite and just awful aches and muscle pains and tiredness.
My daughter who is 9 had it too and three nights in a row her temperature spiked to 40.5 and had to have the paramedics out twice for her. She's much better now.
My sister has it and has the same symptoms as me, she's double jabbed but not sure which vaccine. Her son who is 15 had it really bad too, he was really poorly. Yet his brother who has isolated with them hasn't caught it. And my partner who has shared the bed with our daughter for the last 10 days hasn't caught it either. She's double Pfizer jabbed.
Like many places, it's ripped through our town and area. I've known so many with it and many with little or no symptoms and many like me who suffered like a nasty flu symptoms. I am yet to speak to anyone other than younger kids who have had it and have not been vaccinated, but it appears the vaccines are definitely working to lessen the impact of the virus.
All the stats seem to indicate this too. Cases rising but hospitalisations and deaths appear to be roughly the same and at the moment (touch wood) not rising exponentially like the cases seem to be.
Although it's cost me enough with the lockdowns, I had to close last weekend ( we were fully booked each night) as I didn't have enough staff and didn't want to risk the ones who didn't have it getting it or if they had it, spreading it to customers. So that cost a fortune. I had tickets for me and my lad to see Bill Bailey on Monday we had to cancel and we were due to fly to Finland, Lapland on Tuesday and then had tickets for United Brighton today, so all in all I went from having the best week ever planned to having the actual nightmare before Christmas.
On the bright side though, none of us got severely Ill or worse with Covid, but now we have to once again face the prospect of uncertainty and having to close the pub again during the busy holiday period that usually gets us through the lean winter and early spring months.
I'm just now more disillusioned and confused about how I feel about the whole scenario. I'm not sure how many businesses can cope with more shut downs or how many more people can cope either. Especially teenagers like mine and his cousins in their final years at school. They are suffering awfully and struggling to catch up for their exams and the schools just seem lost and unable to cope or help support then.
Covid causes far more damage than just those sick or dying. It really is a fecking nightmare and there doesn't seem to be an end in sight either.
Sorry for the long meandering post, just needed to get all that out.
I am double jabbed with AZ and tested positive early last week. I've had strange symptoms, the first day just felt wiped out tired. Then a few days of random coughing, loss of appetite and just awful aches and muscle pains and tiredness.
My daughter who is 9 had it too and three nights in a row her temperature spiked to 40.5 and had to have the paramedics out twice for her. She's much better now.
My sister has it and has the same symptoms as me, she's double jabbed but not sure which vaccine. Her son who is 15 had it really bad too, he was really poorly. Yet his brother who has isolated with them hasn't caught it. And my partner who has shared the bed with our daughter for the last 10 days hasn't caught it either. She's double Pfizer jabbed.
Like many places, it's ripped through our town and area. I've known so many with it and many with little or no symptoms and many like me who suffered like a nasty flu symptoms. I am yet to speak to anyone other than younger kids who have had it and have not been vaccinated, but it appears the vaccines are definitely working to lessen the impact of the virus.
All the stats seem to indicate this too. Cases rising but hospitalisations and deaths appear to be roughly the same and at the moment (touch wood) not rising exponentially like the cases seem to be.
Although it's cost me enough with the lockdowns, I had to close last weekend ( we were fully booked each night) as I didn't have enough staff and didn't want to risk the ones who didn't have it getting it or if they had it, spreading it to customers. So that cost a fortune. I had tickets for me and my lad to see Bill Bailey on Monday we had to cancel and we were due to fly to Finland, Lapland on Tuesday and then had tickets for United Brighton today, so all in all I went from having the best week ever planned to having the actual nightmare before Christmas.
On the bright side though, none of us got severely Ill or worse with Covid, but now we have to once again face the prospect of uncertainty and having to close the pub again during the busy holiday period that usually gets us through the lean winter and early spring months.
I'm just now more disillusioned and confused about how I feel about the whole scenario. I'm not sure how many businesses can cope with more shut downs or how many more people can cope either. Especially teenagers like mine and his cousins in their final years at school. They are suffering awfully and struggling to catch up for their exams and the schools just seem lost and unable to cope or help support then.
Covid causes far more damage than just those sick or dying. It really is a fecking nightmare and there doesn't seem to be an end in sight either.
Sorry for the long meandering post, just needed to get all that out.
So I was speaking to a volunteer helping out at a pharmacy and she said they were not bothering with the "15 minute wait" because the queues were so long. During her shifts they supposedly only had one issue - a lady scared of needles felt a bit faint and they allowed her to rest there until she felt better.
@jojojo
Does this criticism seem fair to you? Would drive a coach and horses through Imperial’s model, if so. Obviously, I’m far too lazy to read the actual publication
There are so many unknowns you can understand them plugging in the only concrete data they have available but extrapolating directly from lab data on antibody levels to protection vs severe disease seems ludicrously conservative. Even for a negative Nelly like me!
The 15 minute has been officially done away with for boosters. If anyone was going to get an anaphylactic reaction they would have done so with dose 1 or 2.
My uncle got his booster today and is in terrible shape. Had violent shits on the way home and was conked out like a zombie on the sofa but he’s coming around now.
Maybe it’s a coincidence but it is new for him
No, don't be sorry. Your reaction is completely understandable.
I'm not a "zero covid" campaigner and never have been. I'm very much in the camp of only delay the inevitable if you have some reason to think the population as a whole benefit from the delay - whether that's because of a vaccine or because the health service doesn't fall apart.
Life does go on and it has to. We can't keep stop/starting education as a zero cost option. We do need to let people live their lives, including all those frivolous things like playing/watching football, going to the pub, meeting new people, spending time with family and friends, going on holiday.
It's a real shame we've found ourselves back here now. If it's any consolation, I do think Omicron has pushed the button to tell us, "and now you learn to live with it." It could be a rough winter, but I really do think we're on the way out of this.
Is that the case even when you’re getting a different vaccine?
My wife and me both had AZ for 1&2, but obviously not for our boosters this morning which were Pfizer and they told us we didn’t need to hang around if we didn’t want to.
Yes!
If you were together they wouldn't worry about you as much as if you're on your own. If you were going to wander off around a shopping centre they don't worry as much as if you're about to get in the car and start driving.
Hopefully people still get some basic advice, but yeah, I think they're relying on the most susceptible (past allergic reactions to something) to hang around, offering the chance to anyone feeling nervous or unwell, and hoping for the best with the others. Not that different to how routine flu jabs are treated.
Sounds nasty but doesn’t sound like anaphylaxis, which would involve swelling of his lips/face, rashes and (if it’s really bad) wheezing and chest tightness or (if it’s really really bad) very low blood pressure -> loss of conscience -> death. .
He should probably get a covid test. He certainly wouldn’t be the first person to coincidentally become symptomatic with covid the same day as their jab.
It is undeniably brutal in so many ways, mate.
I’m really glad you and your family are okay though - that sounds like a very scary experience with your daughter!
Didn’t think much of it at the time. But after taking my first jab, I waited my 15, might have been longer at the time but don’t quote me, on the way back I had the sudden urge to poo and when I got back it was pretty explosive & diariha like. Didn’t get that on my second jab.
Yeah they asked me this morning was I driving (I was) and they asked me to avoid doing so for 15 minutes (said I could wait in the waiting area or go and have a wander).
That’s exactly it. Shit luck for my uncle is that the vaccine centre is an hour away from his house!
Those things may be frivolous, but they ARE life to many. People need things to look forward to or distractions otherwise their lives don't have any joy or much meaning. The amount of old single men and women that go to the pub or for coffee mornings etc, it's their life. They literally have nothing without that.
I've only spent 10 days in isolation and was climbing the walls, and I had all modern distractions too, but it made me think how rough lockdown must have been for so many people. Especially those who live alone or in unhappy households.
I was lucky, I loved lockdown. It gave me time with my family and our dog and time to really enjoy the beautiful area I live in without working 24/7 and with no tourists. But I understand how others struggled with lockdown. Kids going back to school have it incredibly tough as do their teachers. Those waiting for hospital appointments etc..
I'm definitely firmly in the camp now of we have to learn to live with it. Keep certain things like masks on public transport etc, regular testing and a firm vaccination plan, but all the time the death and hospitalisations are relatively low, we need to have as normal a life as possible.
If it mutates to Ebola levels of danger then that's different, but all the while for the vast majority (especially those who have been vaccinated) just get mild symptoms I think we are risking far more harm through financial loss, mental health issues and potential civil unrest with the more draconian measures such as lockdowns. But if you got it wrong and suddenly everyone started dying or the NHS crashed, then that's an even more frightening prospect.
Man, you've had a shitter there. But like you say, at least you're all well now.
Have you thought of doing any kind of scheme where customers can buy vouchers for use when things are better? I did that for some bars in Manchester that I wanted to support during lockdown 1, although I never cashed in the vouchers when they reopened.
Thanks mate. It was horrific. Worse that I was isolating alone at the pub while the partner and daughter were at home. Such a nightmare.
Ohhh shit
When I went for mine yesterday, I was told I didn't have to wait as it was my third Pfizer, but my stepfather was told he needed to as he'd had 2 AZs previously.
@jojojo
Does this criticism seem fair to you? Would drive a coach and horses through Imperial’s model, if so. Obviously, I’m far too lazy to read the actual publication
There are so many unknowns you can understand them plugging in the only concrete data they have available but extrapolating directly from lab data on antibody levels to protection vs severe disease seems ludicrously conservative. Even for a negative Nelly like me!
Speaking from my position as someone distinctly lacking in expertise. They use the circulating antibody data as part of the infection rate analysis. There's an early VE calculation from the Public Health England available as well, that I think they referenced (certainly the numbers were similar)
Basing the severe disease analysis on the infection analysis is what seems dubious.
If, instead, severe disease protection is high for the past infected, the hybrid immune and the boosted (even though the infection rate protection takes a hit) the worst case things can't happen - at least not in countries like SA, the UK and Ireland. I get that we don't know, so I understand why it appears in the analysis, but I'm still hoping those memory cells do their stuff.
To be honest, I'm pretty sure we have to wait a week and real results from Denmark and the UK will tell us all about the boosters etc.
Thats cue for the rest of us to stop sharing our opinions
Its summer in SA.
My partner contracted Covid, along with two of my daughters. Myself and my eldest daughter never caught it, despite us all sharing a house. We isolated as best as we could, but it was impossible at times, especially with a 4 year old who, despite testing positive, was showing no symptoms and still flying around like a maniac.
My eldest, who is twelve, has a continuous cough and is still very lethargic. Her isolation only ended 8 days ago though, so I'm hoping she will be back to normal soon.
My eldest, who is twelve, has a continuous cough and is still very lethargic. Her isolation only ended 8 days ago though, so I'm hoping she will be back to normal soon.
And this is the other part of the why case rates matter story. London hospitals heading into trouble because staff are having to isolate.
I interpreted that tweet a little differently. I thought he was claiming they were using the % reduction in neutralising antibodies from the various in vitro studies we saw last week as a prediction for the reduction in VE for severe illness.
I’m probably wrong though. And unfortunately too lazy to do the reading needed to educate myself. It’s a curse.
Didn’t Brazil and India, two very warm countries with no winter / summer have huge waves with high amounts of deaths last year or the year before?
This bit is very concerning. Although hopefully gaps at least partially filled by a hell of a lot of prior infections.
Inevitable, there will be another lockdown.