SARS CoV-2 coronavirus / Covid-19 (No tin foil hat silliness please)

Tibs said:
A lot of media reports about a 2 week circuit breaker after Xmas
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Some suggesting now but impossible to enforce. Even the one after Christmas, I can't see as many people following compared to last year without knowing there is an out at the end of this and it won't be extended or come back in a few months
 
Pexbo said:
Presume it’s way to early to infer anything from that though.

This is what I questioned a week or so ago though; if Alpha/Delta/Vaccines provide diminished protection against Omicron, then the worry has got to be that Omicron provides little protection against Alpha/Delta.

In which case it doesn’t really matter if Omicron is less severe if Delta can still operate in parallel and it’s not a case of Omicron’s lower mortality rate replacing delta’s rather Omicron’s mortality rate in addition to deltas.

In which case the SARS-COV-3 thing you mentioned feels particularly relevant and particularly shit.
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Yeah, exactly. One of the many really important unknowns if whether omicron takes off like crazy because it’s much more transmissible than delta (so will eventually displace it) or purely because it is able to blitz through a population that has some immunity to delta but no protection against omicron. In which case you have two viruses operating in parallel and catching one won’t stop you catching the other.
 
jojojo said:
The third dose triggers your body to make a fresh batch of antibodies. They'll hang around for a few months, and should be able to kill off attempted new infections quickly - ideally before the virus gets chance to spread.

The fact it's the third time your body has seen this infection annoys it, so it makes more antibodies and a broader cocktail of them. The immune system memory (the scientists study these T and B cells as well) gets triggered at the same time and prepares to make new recipes for the next time it happens.

The vaccine trained your body to be ready for the Wuhan virus, it's now got a head start to attack the variants. It was good at stopping Alpha and Delta after two doses, the third made it excellent again.

Now Omicron has shown up. We're expecting the freshly topped up circulating antibody mix to do a good job at stopping it and the memory cells to do an even better one at concocting new recipes to get rid of it before it gets severe.

Dose 2 was the, "I've told you before, just clear off" jab. What we hope dose 3 does is add the phrase, "and take your scummy mates with you."

With apologies to any doctors, virologists and immunologists etc who stumble across this...
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Thanks for the explanation. Does it mean even if someone is getting the 2nd jab now they will be decently protected as opposed to if they had half a year back.
Also what you are saying seems like every new variant (inevitable) will require another booster jab.
 
We’re two weeks removed from cases rising above 50,000 and hospital admissions are lower than mid October when two weeks before that cases were around 20,000 a day less
 
Can I ask a question? A few on here are certainly more informed than me so hopefully can answer.

Sorry if it sounds daft.

Ive had 2 jabs so far (Pfizer) and just had notification that I can book a booster shot, which I will.

My first jab had to be delayed as I contracted covid. There was guidance that you had to wait so many weeks before getting the jab.

I read that something similar applies now with the booster.

My question is what happens if you have the jab/booster while having covid?

I'm sure if you had the symptoms and tested positive beforehand you would inform the right people and this would be addressed. However what if you had it but didn't know/hadnt done the test and we're in fact positive?
 
Pexbo said:
Presume it’s way to early to infer anything from that though.

This is what I questioned a week or so ago though; if Alpha/Delta/Vaccines provide diminished protection against Omicron, then the worry has got to be that Omicron provides little protection against Alpha/Delta.

In which case it doesn’t really matter if Omicron is less severe if Delta can still operate in parallel and it’s not a case of Omicron’s lower mortality rate replacing delta’s rather Omicron’s mortality rate in addition to deltas.

In which case the SARS-COV-3 thing you mentioned feels particularly relevant and particularly shit.
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Delta has been rather stable for a while in UK, so boosters already will bring it down a bit, and there will be some restrictions and behaviour changes which will further have an impact. And I don’t think there is much reason to think that omicron infection would have exactly zero immunity against delta.
 
massi83 said:
Delta has been rather stable for a while in UK, so boosters already will bring it down a bit, and there will be some restrictions and behaviour changes which will further have an impact. And I don’t think there is much reason to think that omicron infection would have exactly zero immunity against delta.
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I don’t think anyone said “exactly zero”?
 
Why are you guys still talking with the village idiot? You know he's dumb. You know he is wrong about most things. You know he will be boring and tedious. You know he will move the goal posts. Where is the upside in talking with him?
 


Delta is starting to decline…but very slowly. The R for Omicron is genuinely insane. It has been 24 days since it was first identified in SA and now it makes up 80% of cases in London…unless it’s significantly milder I don’t see how the NHS possibly copes with the case numbers we’re talking about and we won’t know that for sure in time. 2 week Circuit breaker after Xmas to slow spread and give time for boosters and their effects to take hold seems inevitable.
 
How much do we expect world leaders to solve the actual cause of all these lockdowns and invest in healthcare and capacity once this is all under control.

My guess would be nothing and we will forget about it and whenever the next arrives the same problem.

operating in a society where the hospital capacity is already at 90% full isn’t the way.
 
Bosws87 said:
How much do we expect world leaders to solve the actual cause of all these lockdowns and invest in healthcare and capacity once this is all under control.

My guess would be nothing and we will forget about it and whenever the next arrives the same problem.

operating in a society where the hospital capacity is already at 90% full isn’t the way.
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I don’t think there are many governments that are interested in solving these problems. They’re interested in capitalising on them.
 
Bosws87 said:
How much do we expect world leaders to solve the actual cause of all these lockdowns and invest in healthcare and capacity once this is all under control.

My guess would be nothing and we will forget about it and whenever the next arrives the same problem.

operating in a society where the hospital capacity is already at 90% full isn’t the way.
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I agree. Cutting back so we’re on the limit each winter to save dosh is ludicrous. We’ve been given a stark reminder that health and economy are linked. However, I don’t see any capacity that can cope with the numbers omicron is throwing up. An R of 7 with mitigations already in place - if the populace had zero prior immunity and this thing had the same hospitalisation rate as delta - how can you possibly cope with that? You’re talking the entire population being ill over a 6 week period…
 
Mickeza said:


Delta is starting to decline…but very slowly. The R for Omicron is genuinely insane. It has been 24 days since it was first identified in SA and now it makes up 80% of cases in London…unless it’s significantly milder I don’t see how the NHS possibly copes with the case numbers we’re talking about and we won’t know that for sure in time. 2 week Circuit breaker after Xmas to slow spread and give time for boosters and their effects to take hold seems inevitable.
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I’m going to focus on the positive and only read the first sentence.
 
Just on hospitalisations, there's obviously a lag to the first reported case (roughly two weeks). However, we're starting to see London admissions increase daily having been steady since October (around 1k in hospital per day).

It's up 30% in the last week.

That's all from the government's dashboard, which is free for all to check.
https://coronavirus.data.gov.uk/details/healthcare?areaType=nhsregion&areaName=London

So the fact is that hospitalisations are definitely increasing in London, the Omicron epicentre. So yeah, it's obviously bad news and people need to stop looking at SA which is a totally different world.
 
There's a lot of talk in the press about a two week circuit breaker starting sometime after Christmas but before New Years. I'm not against the idea.

I've got a feeling in my waters that Omicron is the beginning of the end. So as painful as it would be, this might be the last big sacrifice we have to make as a population. I'm gonna stick my neck out and guess that the pandemic in the UK will be over by the end of January. If a circuit breaker gets us there, so be it.
 
Dante said:
There's a lot of talk in the press about a two week circuit breaker starting sometime after Christmas but before New Years. I'm not against the idea.

I've got a feeling in my waters that Omicron is the beginning of the end. So as painful as it would be, this might be the last big sacrifice we have to make as a population. I'm gonna stick my neck out and guess that the pandemic in the UK will be over by the end of January. If a circuit breaker is what it takes, so be it.
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I would love for what you say here to be what happens.
Sadly I really doubt it.
 
Spark said:
Just on hospitalisations, there's obviously a lag to the first reported case (roughly two weeks). However, we're starting to see London admissions increase daily having been steady since October (around 1k in hospital per day).

It's up 30% in the last week.

That's all from the government's dashboard, which is free for all to check.
https://coronavirus.data.gov.uk/details/healthcare?areaType=nhsregion&areaName=London

So the fact is that hospitalisations are definitely increasing in London, the Omicron epicentre. So yeah, it's obviously bad news and people need to stop looking at SA which is a totally different world.
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My last posts have been negative so on the positive here - obviously if COVID is spreading the way it is in London more admissions will test positive as part of screening for it as more people have it. The key is whether they’re incidental (with COVID) like has been reported in SA or if they have been admitted due to having it. I don’t think we know enough from the data yet to make that call.

And I’m totally with @Dante in thinking Omicron speeds up the end of the pandemic in the West. We can’t contain the transmissibility of this thing and by mid February most will have had 3 doses AND have been exposed to Omnicron. It’ll then become likely seasonal due to waining immunity with boosters used to combat. The big question is what damage does it do before February as it spreads.
 
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LARulz said:
Some suggesting now but impossible to enforce. Even the one after Christmas, I can't see as many people following compared to last year without knowing there is an out at the end of this and it won't be extended or come back in a few months
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I think people would. Every time something like this starts to happen you hear riots in the streets but that never actually happens. If you close to pubs, restaurants, cinemas and no crowds at football games for 2 week, nothing much else for people to do other then party at home. Which I’m sure some people (and politicians) will do but the majority won’t.
 
Regulus Arcturus Black said:
28% over here die. I know the exact number yes.
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Apologies, I was mixing critical care with the kind of intubation/mechanical ventilation that people thought might be needed early in the pandemic (based on info from Italy and elsewhere) where death rates are still high globally.

Your critical care stat is similar overall to the UK one, where about 33% currently die either while still on the unit or in hospital after being transferred for continuing care. That figure was over 40% between September 2020 and May this year despite what we'd learned from earlier that year about drugs and strategies. A 50% rate assumption for the UK March 2020 was reasonable.
 
Mickeza said:
My last posts have been negative so on the positive here - obviously if COVID is spreading the way it is in London more admissions will test positive as part of screening for it as more people have it. The key is whether they’re incidental (with COVID) like has been reported in SA or if they have been admitted due to having it. I don’t think we know enough from the data yet to make that call.
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A potential big driver for the “incidental” hospitalisations will be intra-hospital spread. With the usual winter scenes of corridors packed full of A&E patients waiting for review/admission it’s almost impossible to maintain any kind of social distancing. Plus the wards themselves aren’t set up to contain a variant as this one. So there’s going to be loads of explosive outbreaks amongst patients in hospital for reasons other than covid. Which will continue to muddy the waters.

As always, I’ll be keeping a close eye on the covid ITU stats. That’s always been the best way to get a feel for severity of each wave.
 
jojojo said:
Apologies, I was mixing critical care with the kind of intubation/mechanical ventilation that people thought might be needed early in the pandemic (based on info from Italy and elsewhere) where death rates are still high globally.

Your critical care stat is similar overall to the UK one, where about 33% currently die either while still on the unit or in hospital after being transferred for continuing care. That figure was over 40% between September 2020 and May this year despite what we'd learned from earlier that year about drugs and strategies. A 50% rate assumption for the UK March 2020 was reasonable.
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Cross-country critical care comparisons are notoriously difficult because of different definitions of critical care. One hospital’s critical care bed is another’s “high dependency” bed.

Mortality of ventilated patients is the only way to get an apples vs apples comparison.
 
Mickeza said:
My last posts have been negative so on the positive here - obviously if COVID is spreading the way it is in London more admissions will test positive as part of screening for it as more people have it. The key is whether they’re incidental (with COVID) like has been reported in SA or if they have been admitted due to having it. I don’t think we know enough from the data yet to make that call.
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Yeah good point.

On the positive, I'm hoping that with the sheer speed of this wave we will have a very sharp peak that'll mean we're over the worst much quicker. Obviously there are inherent dangers with everyone getting it at the same time, as Whitty keeps pointing out, however in my mind the long term impact of the UK properly shutting for two weeks rather than partially shutting for months is more positive. Omicron potentially forces that hand, as it's likely the shutdown won't be government mandated but actually forced by the fact that a very large proportion of people will be off sick simultaneously (already starting to happen). Also means that a very large proportion will recover at the same time.

Caveat: that's based on pure speculation on my part. Probably will be wrong.

This is the first time that coronavirus has truly affected my wider circle. It's getting to the stage where you're an outlier if you haven't got it and any venture outdoors results in contracting it.

All in all, a total ball ache.
 
Pogue Mahone said:
A potential big driver for the “incidental” hospitalisations will be intra-hospital spread. With the usual winter scenes of corridors packed full of A&E patients waiting for review/admission it’s almost impossible to maintain any kind of social distancing. Plus the wards themselves aren’t set up to contain a variant as this one. So there’s going to be loads of explosive outbreaks amongst patients in hospital for reasons other than covid. Which will continue to muddy the waters.

As always, I’ll be keeping a close eye on the covid ITU stats. That’s always been the best way to get a feel for severity of each wave.
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Yeah very good point. Hospitals struggled to stop the spread of the original variant let alone Delta and now this one. The other thing to watch is LOS - it’s not just about admissions - bed days are obviously vital so even if we end up with more daily admissions due to the sheer number of cases if the average LOS is less which the SA data indicates then it could still be manageable.
 
Mickeza said:
Yeah very good point. Hospitals struggled to stop the spread of the original variant let alone Delta and now this one. The other thing to watch is LOS - it’s not just about admissions - bed days are obviously vital so even if we end up with more daily admissions due to the sheer number of cases if the average LOS is less which the SA data indicates then it could still be manageable.
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Yeah and there’s a tonne of ‘anecdata’ about people recovering far quicker from omicron. So much so you wonder if they could start to think about trimming duration of isolation? Could make a huge difference to NHS capacity (staffing levels)
 
The Anti Morons are protesting through London today.

Would be lovely to see them get Covid severely. But unfair on the NHS having to deal with them.
 
Pogue Mahone said:
Yeah and there’s a tonne of ‘anecdata’ about people recovering far quicker from omicron. So much so you wonder if they could start to think about trimming duration of isolation? Could make a huge difference to NHS capacity (staffing levels)
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Yeah I think they have to do something not just in terms of the NHS - but if a third of the country are testing positive and in isolation how do essential services and supply lines still function? Surely close contacts can’t still require isolation? We’d have 70% of the workforce off sick…the sheer scale of this in such a timeframe is so crazy.
 
Dante said:
There's a lot of talk in the press about a two week circuit breaker starting sometime after Christmas but before New Years. I'm not against the idea.

I've got a feeling in my waters that Omicron is the beginning of the end. So as painful as it would be, this might be the last big sacrifice we have to make as a population. I'm gonna stick my neck out and guess that the pandemic in the UK will be over by the end of January. If a circuit breaker gets us there, so be it.
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Boris is adamant he will not cancel Christmas regardless.

But it wouldn't surprise me if on 27th there is a lockdown re all indoor venues as a minimum enforcement.

TBH, January is the worst month of the year, so a 2 or 3 week lockdown of sorts isn't a bad thing.
 
choccy77 said:
Boris is adamant he will not cancel Christmas regardless.

But it wouldn't surprise me if on 27th there is a lockdown re all indoor venues as a minimum enforcement.

TBH, January is the worst month of the year, so a 2 or 3 week lockdown of sorts isn't a bad thing.
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I was going to look for work in January after taking months off for a break but think I might delay that a month now see how things play out.
 
Stack said:
I would love for what you say here to be what happens.
Sadly I really doubt it.
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The way I see it, we managed to create these amazing vaccines. Not only could they defeat original Covid with only two doses. They could also combat closely related variants like Alpha, Beta, Gamma and Delta.

Then along came Omicron. That was a heavily mutated variant that apparently contained aspects of Delta mixed with aspects of the Common Cold. And yet, despite being so different from what came before, all it took was a third shot of the un-edited original vaccine and we were all good.

There can't be too many more places for Covid left to hide or transform into now. Three jabs can beat not only the original but ALSO all of its brothers AND its cousin. Subsequent vaccine tweaks are going offer even more generalised protection on top of that.

With this level vaccine effectiveness, plus the transmissibility of Omicron adding an extra layer of immunity to the unvaccinated, I reckon we're in the final stretch. Just need to get those boosters into arms.

Obviously, we're still in the middle of massive wave in which lots of people are going to sadly get sick and maybe even die. A circuit breaker is probably still going to be necessary to flatten the curve for the sake of the NHS. So nobody with any power should be sounding the trumpets or raising the bunting. But I'm just some chode on the internet so I can get away with wild conjecture.
 
Heardy said:
Got my booster later this morning. My pregnant wife is booked in too.

I hope she’s ok after getting it - the tin foil hat posts re pregnant women have got under my skin and I feel a bit sick about it all.
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Hope you're both feeling fine. We were really nervous about having the jabs with the wife pregnant as the official advice at the time was so sketchy; our GP basically said it's our risk to take. Didn't fill us with a lot of confidence but we decided to take our chances with the vaccine, rather than actual Covid. We both had two doses of Pfizer and our beautiful baby girl was born last month.

Our boosters are next week and hopefully our experience offers some reassurance to other expecting couples out there.
 
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