Yes I'm aware you've repeatedly mischaracterised the information to suit your agenda. I'm just pointing out in this specific instance how obvious your misrepresentation of the data is. It's in the title.
SARS CoV-2 coronavirus / Covid-19 (No tin foil hat silliness please)
- Thread starter Don't Kill Bill
- Start date
Yes I'm aware you've repeatedly mischaracterised the information to suit your agenda. I'm just pointing out in this specific instance how obvious your misrepresentation of the data is. It's in the title.
i hope they can wait one more day i have a date tonight
I doubt there’s a full lockdown coming today - Drakeford only announced new measures for Wales yesterday evening which was nightclubs closing after Boxing Day.
The same stuff the Swedish experts were smoking who predicted herd immunity would end the pandemic long before now? Meanwhile, in Sweden…
Or perhaps making those sort of long term predictions is incredibly difficult and even scientists who understand this stuff way better than any of us have always found it hard to accurately predict the future of the pandemic?
After Christmas I can see the logic, deal with the after effects of meet-ups, parties etc
Lockdown for Christmas won’t happen because the people are so fcuked off now they won’t listen. January is a crappy month, people have no money and more likely to stay in.
my only fear is something that I read, January is statistically the worst for suicide
“we assume that 50% of those in critical care will die”… kin ell.
It’s worse than I thought.
The chart actually suggests that the epidemic would be over after those 500,000 deaths so yes it is saying by spring 2020, and that somehow magically that’d be the end of it. I guess they’re making the same stupid mistake that Pogue just touched upon as the Swedish experts and thinking herd immunity would kick in and rid us of it.
I still feel like after all this time the majority of the population refuse to accept reality that this virus will overwhelm the health system if it goes unchecked. All people care about is their own little worlds and still refuse to see the bigger picture. The game has changed and right now even with vaccination if it’s allowed to run riot as they seem so keen to have happen it’ll cripple the health system in no time at all.
People need to start accepting that this is our reality now.
People need to start accepting that this is our reality now.
Absolutely, they were ridiculously way off, also laughable.
You are barking up the wrong tree again if you think that my position is that the Swedish experts are infallible, they clearly aren’t they’ve got, like many countries some stuff right some stuff laughably wrong.
So why not ease off on our criticism of people who are trying to predict the unpredictable?
I do agree that governments and their expert advisers (almost) everywhere have erred on the side of caution. And that’s been a pain to live through. I can understand why though. Everyone is shitting themselves over what happened in Italy and India and doesn’t want the same to happen in their country, on their watch.
just glossing over the fact you completely misrepresented the data then?
How bout that
You're back in the UK? Where are you taking her?
You know that that it's still the case that most people admitted to a critical care unit with covid will die, don't you?
yeah back for Christmas, going to the Ivy in Kensington
Wouldn't be surprised if he rocks up on TV tonight, it will be a trailer for what's to come post Christmas.
just saw your edit sorry
it's not saying that man come on now, this is ridiculous
in the let it rip scenario it would be over a lot sooner
but yes people make mistakes in complex models
Ah nice, I like the Ivy, always does amazing desserts. Good luck!
Pubs, cinemas and restaurants are closed at 8pm now in Ireland. Feels like we've been in constant restrictions for 2 years now and everybody is fed up. One of the most vaccinated countries in the world yet we're also one of the most restricted with our government making absolutely shambolic decisions that make very little sense.
No I didn’t, you need to re-check my post as I pressed publish before I was finished.
28% over here die. I know the exact number yes.
So that was in March, with an assumed peak in May. When the figures were assessed for May, the results were...
https://associationofanaesthetists-publications.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1111/anae.15425
That's a pretty good prediction from limited information, all in all. Maybe you misunderstood it?
The graph clearly predicts that 510,000 will have died by summer 2020 in the UK and with that would be the end of the epidemic. Assuming they completely ignore seasonal aspects of upper respiratory viruses, and there an assume that transmission will just keep growing exponentially until the entire country has it, which we now know doesn’t actually happen .
Not sure which I had, my symptoms were mainly fatigue and headache lasted about 5 days. No cough or temperature
Wow, what a tough guy!
Growth in case rates in London. Delta was mostly leveling off, with wobbles and a slight rise in some age groups as party season started. Then Omicron arrives and rather than displacing Delta is good and sits on top of it.
Splitting it by age groups (but keeping Delta and Omicron together because we won't be able to divide them accurately for another week
Nationally by age groups is showing the same thing but with a couple of days delay:
Splitting it by age groups (but keeping Delta and Omicron together because we won't be able to divide them accurately for another week
Nationally by age groups is showing the same thing but with a couple of days delay:
As you can see they ran simulations until December 2021, they assumed that there would be multiple waves as a result of mitigation measures, and they did not assume the pandemic would end by the end of 2021.
We're currently at 147k deaths and 11m cases, almost at December 31, 2021, after following many of the intermittent interventions recommended in the report. Terrible predictions, right?
Fair point, I was only looking at the current mortality rate so yeah, I’m off there, but almost 10% is not insignificant, it’s certainly another worst worst case scenario prediction.
Are you arguing the models prediction of mitigation vs lockdown are credible though? Surely not? I mean, the 7 none lockdown States and the countries with short or no lockdowns show that it absolutely can be mitigated way way way better than they predicted without stay at home orders.
So Sweden have double Irelands population and have less cases per day and less people in ICU. Is Ireland just doing really badly or are Sweden doing something right?
I’m pretty sure it’s not seasonal. The problem in Ireland is that our health system gets overwhelmed in winter every year even without Covid so any surge in cases was always likely to be a big issue. This idea that once we opened we opened for good always seemed like pure fantasy to me as a result, especially as our main easing of restrictions came at the same time as schools going back and sending people back to the offices. I said at the time it was madness (and got shot down in here) and that we should have opened much earlier in the summer and I think it’s obvious now that should have happened. Our Tanaiste said himself we can’t deny people a summer again this year with a prolonged lockdown so hopefully they’ve learnt their lesson
I will say we weren’t locked down over summer though and that’s a total exaggeration, to be fair. We could move around freely, visit people and there was outdoor dining, not great but luckily we got a good summer weather wise.
We socialize VERY well.
Bit of a disaster if that trend continues.
They are making decisions to protect the healthcare system. Hope this helps.
Fair enough, it’s easy to get in a spin with all of this. Prolonged lockdowns and feck all extra pay for doctors and nurses has been my biggest gripe all along, hence the frustration.
It’s hard for me to not see it as seasonal over here when the ICU wave looks like this (and is starting to head up again now).
Nobody knows. The more interesting/relevant comparison is between Sweden and its immediate neighbours anyway. Ireland is so enmeshed with the Uk/EU it’s almost impossible to judge our own approach in isolation.
Which can’t be underestimated in fairness.
It’s really not though as we’ve argued all along. No more so than comparing Germany with Denmark.
All countries with the lowest excess mortality rates in Europe have smaller 5m-ish populations, coincidence? Most 10m+ have similar. https://www.economist.com/graphic-detail/coronavirus-excess-deaths-tracker
A lot of media reports about a 2 week circuit breaker after Xmas
Presume it’s way to early to infer anything from that though.
This is what I questioned a week or so ago though; if Alpha/Delta/Vaccines provide diminished protection against Omicron, then the worry has got to be that Omicron provides little protection against Alpha/Delta.
In which case it doesn’t really matter if Omicron is less severe if Delta can still operate in parallel and it’s not a case of Omicron’s lower mortality rate replacing delta’s rather Omicron’s mortality rate in addition to deltas.
In which case the SARS-COV-3 thing you mentioned feels particularly relevant and particularly shit.
You'd think they'd close schools and not let the walking petri dishes bring covid home instead of closing cinemas at 8pm. Closing pubs means more house parties over Christmas too and a pub with only table service is less of a risk than a unregulated house party than can go all night. I'm all for helping the health care system but these restrictions make so little sense.
Education is always going to be prioritised. I agree that in an ideal world from a virus point of view schools shouldn’t have been open at all since March 2020. Our little man made systems wouldn’t allow that though.