SARS CoV-2 coronavirus / Covid-19 (No tin foil hat silliness please)

[Dan_F]

I looked several weeks ago to see how many current hospital admissions there were in the

I can’t remember exactly how many weeks ago but Omnicron certainly wasn’t being mentioned then

anyway the number at that time was around 7,000 patients in hospital

with all the scaremongering and hype we are seeing in the news and from Number 10 about spike in cases……how many current hospital cases folks???……..yep, holding stead still at 7,600

Hospital admissions are the important figure to keep an eye on and they have largely been the same for months

all we are hearing about is case rises, and of course we are going to see case rises with more and more tests being done

seek and you shal find, but why does it matter with a good vaccine and booster rollout in this Country and stabilised hospital admissions???

just been reading about government advisors drawing up plans for a 2 week lockdown/circuit breaker after Christmas season…….why!!!!! More hype

I’m not saying this will happen but surely hospitalisations will take a few weeks on from now to increase. End of November was 40k a day, we’ve been at double that for five days now. To get an accurate read on hospitalisations it probably won’t be reflected until the new year?

Then you’ve got the added fact that everyone is likely to see older relatives around Christmas, so higher case numbers will just naturally mean higher risk than normal. And the threat of new variants forming with high caseloads. I don’t find it that hard too see why people would be worried.

 

[jojojo]

I’m not saying this will happen but surely hospitalisations will take a few weeks on from now to increase. End of November was 40k a day, we’ve been at double that for five days now. To get an accurate read on hospitalisations it probably won’t be reflected until the new year?

Then you’ve got the added fact that everyone is likely to see older relatives around Christmas, so higher case numbers will just naturally mean higher risk than normal. And the threat of new variants forming with high caseloads. I don’t find it that hard too see why people would be worried.

Yep. We'll get an idea from London next week.

Broadly, hospital admissions show around 5-8 days after cases. Hospital totals about 3 days behind that, and that's when deaths start to be visible as well (in older groups, later with younger ones).

 

[jojojo]

Sorry if this has been answered before but why is a third dose required. What does it offer that the first two doses don't?

The third dose triggers your body to make a fresh batch of antibodies. They'll hang around for a few months, and should be able to kill off attempted new infections quickly - ideally before the virus gets chance to spread.

The fact it's the third time your body has seen this infection annoys it, so it makes more antibodies and a broader cocktail of them. The immune system memory (the scientists study these T and B cells as well) gets triggered at the same time and prepares to make new recipes for the next time it happens.

The vaccine trained your body to be ready for the Wuhan virus, it's now got a head start to attack the variants. It was good at stopping Alpha and Delta after two doses, the third made it excellent again.

Now Omicron has shown up. We're expecting the freshly topped up circulating antibody mix to do a good job at stopping it and the memory cells to do an even better one at concocting new recipes to get rid of it before it gets severe.

Dose 2 was the, "I've told you before, just clear off" jab. What we hope dose 3 does is add the phrase, "and take your scummy mates with you."

With apologies to any doctors, virologists and immunologists etc who stumble across this...

 

[Regulus Arcturus Black]

I get the frustration everyone's feeling. We want to know the answers. The models are missing key data so they can't tell us much. They give scenarios and then the media headline writers pick the most extreme case and make it sound like a prediction. It's not a prediction, it's a what if - a particular set of assumptions is true.

The models currently show as worse case, what if the current R rate is maintained (it won't be), our current knowledge about the protective effects of the vaccine/booster and protection via past infection are true (they won't be) and it's about as dangerous as Delta (we don't think it is) what happens? The answer is a disaster.

It's also only one of the calculations in the model. It's not the one they think is the likeliest, it's not the optimistic, it's not even the one they describe as "reasonable worst case". It's the scary one, that headline writers lock onto, and that scares some people and makes other people laugh.

If the more extreme predictions are accurate we'll know from London next week, and from the whole country on/before New Year.

If the optimistic predictions are accurate, we'll have a bad month in January, but there will be little point in trying to stop it rolling through. If the pessimistic ones are accurate we'll be slamming the brakes on hard and trying to make the hospitalisations/deaths spread out over 3 months, rather than 3 weeks.

That’s a really good post on the current situation.

 

[Mickeza]

COVID has killed 150k people in the U.K. - that’s with vaccines, treatments and lockdowns to stop the NHS completely collapsing. Anyone want to tell me why a model saying 500k deaths at the start had we just let it rip without vaccines and the treatments we now have which would have completely collapsed the NHS was wildly exaggerated?

 

[Tarrou]

I’m not claiming they did

The March 2020 model did claim the UK could see 500,000 deaths without strong measures, which is almost 8% of the population and quite clearly massively over exaggerated. I mean, he said himself in an interview that..



Which is what I remember Tegnell also claiming back in March 2020 when asked about the report.

it's more like 0.8%

500k without strong measures doesn't seem that ridiculous considering we're at 150k now, with all the lockdowns, a much earlier vaccine roll-out than expected, and still not over the virus

 

[owlo]

@jojojo did you see my question wrt past sars-cov1 infection + vaccine vs omicron ? Or no data yet?

 

[KirkDuyt]

Hard lockdown incoming tonight in the Netherlands. There goes my push to go to the gym 5 times a week until I look like Thor

 

[jojojo]

COVID has killed 150k people in the U.K. - that’s with vaccines, treatments and lockdowns to stop the NHS completely collapsing. Anyone want to tell me why a model saying 500k deaths at the start had we just let it rip without vaccines and the treatments we now have which would have completely collapsed the NHS was wildly exaggerated?

It wasn't exaggerated. It was a warning about what would happen, and happen shockingly fast if we did nothing.

 

[fergieisold]

it's more like 0.8%

500k without strong measures doesn't seem that ridiculous considering we're at 150k now, with all the lockdowns, a much earlier vaccine roll-out than expected, and still not over the virus

The only caveat I'd point out is that I've still not seen a proper response from government or health officials about how a covid death is counted. If they really are reporting on people dying within 28 days of a positive test then you can knock that 150k down significantly.

But yeh...500k doesn't seem that wild if we'd just let it rip.

 

[golden_blunder]

I question everything.

The reason I'm concerned is 5 million (and likely far far more) excess deaths (even with flu deaths way down) with more to come until we vaccinate/boost the world. The reason I'd get tested when neccesary and wear a mask when distancing isn't possible and get vaxxed and then boostered is that it is the sensible and moral thing to do based on the evidence and best medical advice.

Too late it is. Waste your words you do. Dark said Yoda has joined

 

[golden_blunder]

I looked several weeks ago to see how many current hospital admissions there were in the

I can’t remember exactly how many weeks ago but Omnicron certainly wasn’t being mentioned then

anyway the number at that time was around 7,000 patients in hospital

with all the scaremongering and hype we are seeing in the news and from Number 10 about spike in cases……how many current hospital cases folks???……..yep, holding stead still at 7,600

Hospital admissions are the important figure to keep an eye on and they have largely been the same for months

all we are hearing about is case rises, and of course we are going to see case rises with more and more tests being done

seek and you shal find, but why does it matter with a good vaccine and booster rollout in this Country and stabilised hospital admissions???

just been reading about government advisors drawing up plans for a 2 week lockdown/circuit breaker after Christmas season…….why!!!!! More hype

Because logically the more it spreads the more will end up hospitalised. In a health service which is already straining

 

[decorativeed]

Hard lockdown incoming tonight in the Netherlands. There goes my push to go to the gym 5 times a week until I look like Thor

I've just been looking to attain a Thor style body naturally through my much reduced physical activity this last two years. I'm almost up to his level now and I reckon I can give it a good push to match his physique over Christmas.

Spoiler

 

[GDaly95]

Am I right in assuming there is unequivocal evidence that being vaccinated means you're less likely to spread the virus?

Because otherwise why would we be restricting unvaccinated people from going certain places.

I have no agenda here, its just a really basic and fundamental question that I've realised I haven't observed the answer to yet.

 

[jojojo]

@jojojo did you see my question wrt past sars-cov1 infection + vaccine vs omicron ? Or no data yet?

I don't think anyone has that data (even if some vaccine groups might look at neutralisation titres in the future) - I've certainly seen nothing published. We're still waiting for data on the more common scenarios.

From a real world epidemiology perspective people who had SARS and who we know haven't had a covid vaccine (or covid infection) but who are now living in high Omicron areas will be hard to find.

 

[owlo]

I don't think anyone has that data (even if some vaccine groups might look at neutralisation titres in the future) - I've certainly seen nothing published. We're still waiting for data on the more common scenarios.

From a real world epidemiology perspective people who had SARS and who we know haven't had a covid vaccine (or covid infection) but who are now living in high Omicron areas will be hard to find.

Unsurprising though a little disappointing. I found it really interesting that SARS+ Single mRNA was so effective vs covid and hoped some research may be developing on that front.

 

[jojojo]

Am I right in assuming there is unequivocal evidence that being vaccinated means you're less likely to spread the virus?

Because otherwise why would we be restricting unvaccinated people from going certain places.

I have no agenda here, its just a really basic and fundamental question that I've realised I haven't observed the answer to yet.

Yep. They're less likely to be infected and less likely to pass it on. The calculations will need to get redone for Omicron, and that will take weeks, but it's not an odd assumption.

Mind you, I'd still advise them to take a LFT before going to an event, visiting vulnerable family etc. Because eh, why not?

 

[GDaly95]

Yep. They're less likely to be infected and less likely to pass it on. The calculations will need to get redone for Omicron, and that will take weeks, but it's not an odd assumption.

Mind you, I'd still advise them to take a LFT before going to an event, visiting vulnerable family etc. Because eh, why not?

Thank you!

 

[Jippy]

I've an anxious friend about to go for a jab today, they're planning on taking a low dose of Valium before turning up. Any medical reason not to do this? Cheers.

From a newbie.

@Droid_Repairs I can't reply in the main covid thread so hopefully you read this here, but when I went for my vaccine I took a diazepam because I have a severe phobia of needles, and I told them in the queue when they came to get my details and was told that's it's absolutely fine, and that I wasn't the first to have said they'd done that

So hopefully that means valium would be ok too, but as others have said I'd find out from the staff there first to make sure.

 

[decorativeed]

Am I right in assuming there is unequivocal evidence that being vaccinated means you're less likely to spread the virus?

Because otherwise why would we be restricting unvaccinated people from going certain places.

I have no agenda here, its just a really basic and fundamental question that I've realised I haven't observed the answer to yet.

Vaccination has been shown to neutralise the virus in a significant number of vaccinated people, but not all. So if those people have avoided infection completely, it stands to reason that they can't spread it. So the vaccines are providing a reduction in transmission via that effect in some recipients.

 

[golden_blunder]

I’d love to know whatever happened to the affluent, like-minded guy? Did he ever catch it?

 

[Regulus Arcturus Black]

it's more like 0.8%

500k without strong measures doesn't seem that ridiculous considering we're at 150k now, with all the lockdowns, a much earlier vaccine roll-out than expected, and still not over the virus

Sorry, meant to post 0.8%, obviously not 8%.

And 510,000 was not even for the almost 2 years to date, it was by Spring 2020 ffs. And with a “Swedish style response”, the model predicted 250,000 deaths by Spring.

So yes it was pretty ridiculous and grossly overestimated.

 

[Carolina Red]

Sorry, meant to post 0.8%, obviously not 8%.

And 510,000 was not even for the almost 2 years to date, it was by Spring 2020 ffs.

So yes it was pretty ridiculous and grossly overestimated.

And yet even if you stretch the date out to December 2021 on those possible death tolls, the numbers are still in favor of taking mitigation measures.

 

[Regulus Arcturus Black]

And yet even if you stretch the date out to December 2021 on those possible death tolls, the numbers are still in favor of taking mitigation measures.

Well of course you take mitigation measures.

The biggest problem with the model was the gross overestimation of mitigation vs lockdown. Plenty of States have shown that to be a vast exaggeration, and ignoring the seasonal aspects that we see with all upper respiratory viruses.

 

[Withnail]

@ManchesterYoda suspects he might have caught it. It looks like it could have made him really fecking stupid. Those are the symptoms he is currently exhibiting.

 

[Pogue Mahone]

a) fair enough, I was under the impression you had the hospitality sector and other areas of society closed for a large part of last year, and a good bit into the Summer.
So many countries, easy to lose track.
b) you arguing out of both sides of your mouth here Pogue

Nope. Just pointing out the ridiculousness of you implying it’s ok to take your eye of the ball re covid in summer when South Africa is going through an explosion of cases. Right now. In summer.

All the experts agree this will end up as a seasonal virus. Most of them predicted it would when the pandemic started. But it can take years for a novel virus like this to settle into seasonal endemicity. We’re still a long way short of that now. Summer surges are still very much a thing.

 

[Tarrou]

Sorry, meant to post 0.8%, obviously not 8%.

And 510,000 was not even for the almost 2 years to date, it was by Spring 2020 ffs. And with a “Swedish style response”, the model predicted 250,000 deaths by Spring.

So yes it was pretty ridiculous and grossly overestimated.

are you sure this chart is directly from source?

I don't think a data analyst would present data like this, it makes no sense to put a death toll at the peak of the bell curve

you'd present your numbers for the entire pandemic surely?

 

[Regulus Arcturus Black]

are you sure this chart is directly from source?

The source is right there under the x axis.

 

[Tarrou]

The source is right there under the x axis.

I know it states that, but what I'm suggesting is this has been edited because it looks wonky

 

[Pogue Mahone]

I’m not claiming they did

The March 2020 model did claim the UK could see 500,000 deaths without strong measures, which is almost 8% of the population and quite clearly massively over exaggerated; it also claimed that a “Swedish style model” would see 250,000 deaths. I mean, he said himself in an interview that..



Which is what I remember Tegnell also claiming back in March 2020 when asked about the report.

You’re getting hung up on worst case scenarios. All these models have “optimistic” and “pessimistic” ranges of outcomes. It’s the pessimistic numbers that make headlines when the experts are asked “how bad could this get”?

 

[Jippy]

I’d love to know whatever happened to the affluent, like-minded guy? Did he ever catch it?

Him disappearing straight after that was so weird.

 

[Brwned]

Well of course you take mitigation measures.

The biggest problem with the model was the gross overestimation of mitigation vs lockdown. Plenty of States have shown that to be a vast exaggeration, and ignoring the seasonal aspects that we see with all upper respiratory viruses.

The chart you've shown indicates the modelled outcomes with no mitigation measures. It's in the title. If you're criticising it for not accurately taking into account the mitigation measures, then you're not really understanding what the model was designed to do.

 

[KirkDuyt]

I've just been looking to attain a Thor style body naturally through my much reduced physical activity this last two years. I'm almost up to his level now and I reckon I can give it a good push to match his physique over Christmas.

Spoiler

 

[golden_blunder]

Him disappearing straight after that was so weird.

It was early days in Covid, he should come back, admit he was wrong and post again

 

[Regulus Arcturus Black]

You’re getting hung up on worst case scenarios. All these models have “optimistic” and “pessimistic” ranges of outcomes. It’s the pessimistic numbers that make headlines when the experts are asked “how bad could this get”?

@jojojo just made a much better post than yours and stated exactly that, to which I replied that it was a great post.
It was in fact the majority on here and policy makers that got too hung up on the quite frankly absurd worst case scenario.

 

[Regulus Arcturus Black]

The chart you've shown indicates the modelled outcomes with no mitigation measures. It's in the title. If you're criticising it for not accurately taking into account the mitigation measures, then you're not really understanding what the model was designed to do.

You haven’t followed the conversation, I’d said multiple times that Imperial predicted 250,000 deaths by Summer 2020 with a Swedish style mitigation strategy. 500,000 was the “let it rip” prediction.

Let’s remember Ferguson also said the following:

I have the greatest respect for scientists there [in Sweden]. They came to a different policy conclusion but based really on quite similar science.

'They make the argument that countries will find it very hard to really stop second waves... I don't agree with it but scientifically they are not that far from scientists in any country in the world.'

I mean, what the funk was Neil smoking when he thought lockdown countries wouldn’t find it hard to stop second waves??

 

[Tarrou]

I know it states that, but what I'm suggesting is this has been edited because it looks wonky

@Regulus Arcturus Black

I dug out the report

https://www.imperial.ac.uk/media/imperial-college/medicine/mrc-gida/2020-03-16-COVID19-Report-9.pdf

as you can see the chart is different, it's predicting 510,000 (worst case scenario) for entire pandemic (not for spring 2020)

edit: the modelling for all scenarios actually looks pretty good in retrospect, when you consider how difficult it is to predict how things play out

 

[Garethw]

Some rumours on Twitter that a UK national lockdown could be announced today? Surely bullshit, right?

 

[Pogue Mahone]

You haven’t followed the conversation, I’d said multiple times that Imperial predicted 250,000 deaths by Summer 2020 with a Swedish style mitigation strategy. 500,000 was the “let it rip” prediction.

The only one getting “hung up” on these models seems to be you. Everyone else seems to understand they are, at best, crude predictions of a range of outcomes.

Big decisions are constantly being made based on imperfect data. The only people I’ve heard make any predictions with absolute certainty are frauds, grifters or back seat scientists who don’t understand the nuance and uncertainties involved.

 

[esmufc07]

Some rumours on Twitter that a UK national lockdown could be announced today? Surely bullshit, right?

It will be bullshit but we absolutely need a lock down. There’s almost certainly one coming after Xmas though.