That's the same study quoted in the article above with 72 participants. I'll have a dig later and maybe somebody like @jojojo or @Pogue Mahone know much more, but 25% seems suspect to me.
Strongly suspect that was an existing comorbidity.
SARS CoV-2 coronavirus / Covid-19 (No tin foil hat silliness please)
- Thread starter Don't Kill Bill
- Start date
That's the same study quoted in the article above with 72 participants. I'll have a dig later and maybe somebody like @jojojo or @Pogue Mahone know much more, but 25% seems suspect to me.
Strongly suspect that was an existing comorbidity.
Small sample size agreed. Immunity from infection is also always more highly variable than vaccination so I suspect there will be a wide range of figures out there.
This is a great thread to figure out which posters are logical and which are "logical".
Are you sure you never have? Even by accident?
€40bn spent on lockdowns, curfews and subsidies - while 3/4 years into a pandemic and we have a bare handful more ICU beds than we had before it.
It's not necessary. Is fecking negligence.
What I never understand about this opinion.
What is the motive? If it was all bullshit what is in it for countries governments shutting down businesses and severely damaging the economy of the country they govern? Why would they have spend huge numbers on full time staff and premises doing the tests, vaccinating and all other jobs surrounding COVID?
I just can never work out why there is such suspicions?
I know it seems that long but somehow it's less than 2 years still since the start of all this.
Post what you find here, in all honesty my reading of various articles on it was cursory so a better understanding would be good.
https://www.nature.com/articles/d41586-021-03470-x
Cuba’s bet on home-grown COVID vaccines is paying off
Preprint data show that a three-dose combo of Soberana jabs has 92.4% efficacy in clinical trials.
Their vaccination rates took off at the end of September, this is quite an impressive performance from the vaccine. Hopefully it can do something vs Omicron too.
Cuba’s bet on home-grown COVID vaccines is paying off
Preprint data show that a three-dose combo of Soberana jabs has 92.4% efficacy in clinical trials.
Their vaccination rates took off at the end of September, this is quite an impressive performance from the vaccine. Hopefully it can do something vs Omicron too.
Look it’s Ireland they couldn’t organise a piss up in a brewery, there is plans for a new hospital in cork they are still deciding where to put it one Idea is out in curraheen near the dog track, where they would have to buy the land it’s the south side so not fecking cheap, another plan is to build it by glanmire they own around 90 acres of land currently partially being used as a mental hospital and a pitch and putt area, where do ya think they want to build it in the fecking south side which has all the hospitals in cork city already. Nothing makes sense when it comes to Ireland and rational thinking.
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Neil Ferguson reported as saying omicron could result in 5000 daily deaths. Probably the best thing we’ve all heard and best sign that Omicron will actually be less fatal then previous variants.
But seriously this guy to me is just the opposite extreme of 5G blaming anti vaxxers. He’s also more dangerous because
every wildly exaggerated prediction that he makes undermines the severity of the pandemic and can turn people into doubters or even anti vaxxers.
5000 daily deaths. If Omicron was likely to do that at a rate of daily infection that’s realistic we’d already be seeing an increase in hospitalisations and deaths.
But seriously this guy to me is just the opposite extreme of 5G blaming anti vaxxers. He’s also more dangerous because
every wildly exaggerated prediction that he makes undermines the severity of the pandemic and can turn people into doubters or even anti vaxxers.
5000 daily deaths. If Omicron was likely to do that at a rate of daily infection that’s realistic we’d already be seeing an increase in hospitalisations and deaths.
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You can’t fix a totally fecked health service in less than two years. They have actually increased ICU capacity by 30%. The problem is the past 25 years of negligence by FFG.
apparently the biggest problem is a lack of doctors and nurses even if they wanted to add more beds. You can’t buy those short term, sadly.
They have 42 more ICU beds than they had at the beginning. We now have 300 so that is an increase of a little over 16%.
The lack of doctors and nurses stems from not paying them properly. Nobody is ever going to convince me that we couldn't have had half as much lockdown and used half of that €40bn to either retrain or recruit more doctors and nurses for ICU's.
Of course, but it's not that simple. There were obviously no easy wins. You can't just decide "I'm going to spend 8bn on more doctors and nurses instead of a 5 month lockdown". I think the government made a balls of a lot of their decisions with lockdowns, especially keeping us locked down over the summer instead of letting us enjoy it, but the HSE problems are much more long term than short term. It also doesn't really matter, countries with far better health services than us (Netherlands, Germany) have been imposing tougher restrictions over Xmas anyway.
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They should of let us have some level of normality in the summer and that is why after all the year it feels like we are back at square 1, there is a lack of doctors everywhere, even a local surgery, which is not my one has been calling NZ to try and get GP’s
I question everything.
The reason I'm concerned is 5 million (and likely far far more) excess deaths (even with flu deaths way down) with more to come until we vaccinate/boost the world. The reason I'd get tested when neccesary and wear a mask when distancing isn't possible and get vaxxed and then boostered is that it is the sensible and moral thing to do based on the evidence and best medical advice.
i mean it’s pretty simple. Most decent human beings want to avoid catching a disease which can easily be spread to someone vulnerable. Or if you do catch the disease minimise the chances of going to hospital and taking a bed away from someone more vulnerable.
Unfortunately the world Is full of selfish people too.
Not obvious at all. This viewpoint is far from uncommon. I'm actually surprised there aren't more people spouting this shit on here.
I've an anxious friend about to go for a jab today, they're planning on taking a low dose of Valium before turning up. Any medical reason not to do this? Cheers.
I wouldn't take medical information from an annonymous source on a forum, no matter how informed they appear.
Please tell your friend to mention to the vaccination clinic that they have taken a valium, they will deal with it accordingly. My expectation is it wouldn't be an issue, but I don't know for sure.
I looked several weeks ago to see how many current hospital admissions there were in the
I can’t remember exactly how many weeks ago but Omnicron certainly wasn’t being mentioned then
anyway the number at that time was around 7,000 patients in hospital
with all the scaremongering and hype we are seeing in the news and from Number 10 about spike in cases……how many current hospital cases folks???……..yep, holding stead still at 7,600
Hospital admissions are the important figure to keep an eye on and they have largely been the same for months
all we are hearing about is case rises, and of course we are going to see case rises with more and more tests being done
seek and you shal find, but why does it matter with a good vaccine and booster rollout in this Country and stabilised hospital admissions???
just been reading about government advisors drawing up plans for a 2 week lockdown/circuit breaker after Christmas season…….why!!!!! More hype
I can’t remember exactly how many weeks ago but Omnicron certainly wasn’t being mentioned then
anyway the number at that time was around 7,000 patients in hospital
with all the scaremongering and hype we are seeing in the news and from Number 10 about spike in cases……how many current hospital cases folks???……..yep, holding stead still at 7,600
Hospital admissions are the important figure to keep an eye on and they have largely been the same for months
all we are hearing about is case rises, and of course we are going to see case rises with more and more tests being done
seek and you shal find, but why does it matter with a good vaccine and booster rollout in this Country and stabilised hospital admissions???
just been reading about government advisors drawing up plans for a 2 week lockdown/circuit breaker after Christmas season…….why!!!!! More hype
Not intrinsically, but medicating is generally not as effective as planning. Best to let them know in advance, and go at a quiet time fast in, fast out. Takes 5 minutes out of the car total. (They'll genreally let you wait round the back or in the car post dose if you explain)
I mean, China built several new hospitals in a year, but you're right about staff.
I don't begrudge him for doing it personally, but people like my bro shouldn't be able to qualify, do their 2 years and then immediately emigrate to Canada/Australia...... Either that, or they need paid more/treated better so they don't do it. Because I know a lot of doctors around our age (mid thirties) and none of them currently work for the NHS. One works in the UK for an Israeli biotech, the others are abroad.
Ferguson’s an absolute weapon, he always grossly over exaggerates in his modelling and his predictions absolutely are dangerous.
On top of that he clearly doesn’t give a feck himself about following the advice so…
That summer long lockdown you had when it was crystal clear (I argued this at the time and was once again shot down from all sides) this thing was seasonal was a massive feck up to the tune of billions that should have been spent on the health service and not least by giving all healthcare workers a massive “pandemic pay rise”.
It amazes me that we’re where we are now and so many are giving their governments a free card for ridiculously expensive short term thinking like this.
a) We didn’t have a summer long lockdown
b) It’s currently summer in South Africa
That Imperial College report that simply said there’s not enough evidence to determine whether omicron is more or less severe than previous waves being spun on Twitter as “IMPERIAL COLLEGE SAY OMICRON ISN’T LESS SEVERE!!!” has been irritating.
Presumably there should be a noticeable uptick in hospital admission over next ten days if severity is at least on point with delta
Presumably there should be a noticeable uptick in hospital admission over next ten days if severity is at least on point with delta
It’s worse than that. Their report shows that it’s less severe but because the average age skews young they’re saying you have to ignore that and assume it isn’t less severe.
Mind you, you can see why they want to play it down. The cases are doubling so quickly it could put 50% less people in hospital than delta at the same case numbers only to match the hospitalisations 3 days later (and double them 3 days after that, and so on)
It will be better to keep an eye on hospital figures for London rather than nationally as that is where the virus is much more widespread. The rest of the country will lag behind the capital for a short while. I checked yesterday and I think the London hospital figures have been increasing a bit lately. Will be interesting to see where they are in a week's time.
None at all. I did for my first two jabs.
a) fair enough, I was under the impression you had the hospitality sector and other areas of society closed for a large part of last year, and a good bit into the Summer.
So many countries, easy to lose track.
b) you arguing out of both sides of your mouth here Pogue
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I feel like there is something I am missing with him. He has been hated on all throughout the pandemic but still anything he says is headline news. Is he right or do we just want someone (extra) to hate?
People didn’t need to listen to his none peer reviewed model back in March 2020 so it’s not really his fault, Anders Tegnell was instantly super critical of the model back in March 2020 as not lining up with the data from Italy and China.
But, he’s just modelling I guess. A big issue back in March 2020 was how influential that model became WorldWide before any peer review. So yeah, even I’m OTT harsh on the guy I guess.
I’m not claiming they did
The March 2020 model did claim the UK could see 500,000 deaths without strong measures, which is almost 8% of the population and quite clearly massively over exaggerated; it also claimed that a “Swedish style model” would see 250,000 deaths. I mean, he said himself in an interview that..
Which is what I remember Tegnell also claiming back in March 2020 when asked about the report.
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Sorry if this has been answered before but why is a third dose required. What does it offer that the first two doses don't?
I get the frustration everyone's feeling. We want to know the answers. The models are missing key data so they can't tell us much. They give scenarios and then the media headline writers pick the most extreme case and make it sound like a prediction. It's not a prediction, it's a what if - a particular set of assumptions is true.
The models currently show as worse case, what if the current R rate is maintained (it won't be), our current knowledge about the protective effects of the vaccine/booster and protection via past infection are true (they won't be) and it's about as dangerous as Delta (we don't think it is) what happens? The answer is a disaster.
It's also only one of the calculations in the model. It's not the one they think is the likeliest, it's not the optimistic, it's not even the one they describe as "reasonable worst case". It's the scary one, that headline writers lock onto, and that scares some people and makes other people laugh.
If the more extreme predictions are accurate we'll know from London next week, and from the whole country on/before New Year.
If the optimistic predictions are accurate, we'll have a bad month in January, but there will be little point in trying to stop it rolling through. If the pessimistic ones are accurate we'll be slamming the brakes on hard and trying to make the hospitalisations/deaths spread out over 3 months, rather than 3 weeks.
The models currently show as worse case, what if the current R rate is maintained (it won't be), our current knowledge about the protective effects of the vaccine/booster and protection via past infection are true (they won't be) and it's about as dangerous as Delta (we don't think it is) what happens? The answer is a disaster.
It's also only one of the calculations in the model. It's not the one they think is the likeliest, it's not the optimistic, it's not even the one they describe as "reasonable worst case". It's the scary one, that headline writers lock onto, and that scares some people and makes other people laugh.
If the more extreme predictions are accurate we'll know from London next week, and from the whole country on/before New Year.
If the optimistic predictions are accurate, we'll have a bad month in January, but there will be little point in trying to stop it rolling through. If the pessimistic ones are accurate we'll be slamming the brakes on hard and trying to make the hospitalisations/deaths spread out over 3 months, rather than 3 weeks.