That makes to much sense to do to be honest, kids are the driver of the current wave.
SARS CoV-2 coronavirus / Covid-19 (No tin foil hat silliness please)
- Thread starter Don't Kill Bill
- Start date
Is there a risk people are underestimating how Omicron will effect its population given we are relying so much on the South African data? From what I read a while back, the probability of developing severe covid varied significantly between different ethnicities and the genetic make up was a large factor in this (socio-economic factors also contributed). Given the ethnic makeup of SA is mostly black and mixed raced people, is it at all likely that the probability of developing severe covid from Omicron could be wildly different in the UK with 85% of the population being white?
Following the same pattern as nearly every stat since the pandemic has begun initially starts off at a higher percentage ends well below it once the case data catches up.
been the same throughout what crazy death rate did we think covid had originally. I’d see that as positive info with such small number of cases
The only evidence of ethnicity and covid outcomes skews in the opposite direction. With worse outcomes in black and other minority ethnicities (UK data) Although that’s likely to be due to reasons other than genetics.
I don’t know how you can see it as positive. Small numbers just means results less reliable. It doesn’t bias them to be any better or worse.
Yay positivity!
... Oh negativity
Tbf Pogue has been more positive than usual lately.
Pubs in Ireland closing @ 8pm now. You'd feel for the workers impacted by it but it's unfortunately necessary. Our health system is too shit to deal with the inevitable surge.
Yay positivity!
... Oh negativity
Tbf Pogue has been more positive than usual lately.
Everything I’m seeing coming out of South Africa about severity is positive. But we can’t assume the experience will be the same over here. For lots of reasons.
The Danish data isn’t ideal but it’s far too preliminary to get worried about.
If I was a betting man I’d hedge my bets there’s a plenty of data available have we got an example yet where there has been high prevalence of cases with any variant where the data is drastically different compared to another country.
obviously ignoring vaccination vs not as that’s a no brainer, genuine question?
Should probs clarify similar nations in prosperity not comparing people living in extreme poverty as we all know that will sway it massively. The rate of obesity would be my biggest worry for some of the wealthier nations
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This is a good/sensible thread which sums up where my own head is at with this. A bit yankocentric but still makes sense on this side of the pond.
1,598,910 tests done too.
Apparently rate of obesity in SA is identical to UK (28%)
As someone in a country with no boosters or anti viral pills in sight, that made me feel like shit.
I'm not sure what closing them at 8pm instead of 11pm actually solves. Only vaccinated people can go in and they are already adhering to 2m rules. Seems pointless. It's basically their way of closing them without having to actually close them and fund them, by the looks of it. The mad thing is them doing this and keeping the schools open on possibly the most pointless week for them to be open. Something had to be done, I guess. Hospital/ICU numbers down which doesn't help their cause but they're obviously being pro-active about omicron and if it avoids us being locked down til summer again then fine.
Do other countries also do wastewater analysis for viral particles? Through analysis we predicted the wave one week before positive cases were reported.
Just gonna lead to those stupid scenes of everyone leaving at the same time all together, which is insane with such a transmissible virus
I found this an interesting interview. A virologist says that the studies he's done suggest that Omicron replicates 70x quicker than the original virus and is also quicker than Delta in the wind pipe and is therefore highly transmissible.
The replication in the lungs is lower than both Delta and the original virus, which he says would normally suggest a less severe illness than those two. There are a couple of caveats, but it is interesting to hear it clearly explained by a virologist why it could be more transmissible, but less severe and how that works in the body.
Science in Action - Why Omicron replicates faster - BBC Sounds
The replication in the lungs is lower than both Delta and the original virus, which he says would normally suggest a less severe illness than those two. There are a couple of caveats, but it is interesting to hear it clearly explained by a virologist why it could be more transmissible, but less severe and how that works in the body.
Science in Action - Why Omicron replicates faster - BBC Sounds
Probably quite a bit. My coughing mother in law had to be virtually dragged to the test centre, on threat of not seeing her pregnant daughter over Christmas. It was negative thankfully.
I think you can be reassured by data from South Africa about less severe illnesses/hospitals not overwhelmed etc. You’re in the same boat as them in having low vaccine rates (and zero boosters) but basically everyone caught delta and you have a young population. Plus weather is good with you right now, right?
Fewer worrying uncertainties for you compared to Europe right now.
https://coronavirus.data.gov.uk/
Nearly 900k boosters in a single day. Didn't think we'd get near that number to be honest. Putting the fifteen minute post-jab observation period has improved flow and numbers a lot more.
Nearly 900k boosters in a single day. Didn't think we'd get near that number to be honest. Putting the fifteen minute post-jab observation period has improved flow and numbers a lot more.
Damn, there goes my Christmas plans.
Positive LF with PCR arriving tomorrow to confirm. Rest of my household tested positive earlier in the week, so I was a sitting duck.
Grateful to have had all my jabs, because I feel dreadful frankly.
Positive LF with PCR arriving tomorrow to confirm. Rest of my household tested positive earlier in the week, so I was a sitting duck.
Grateful to have had all my jabs, because I feel dreadful frankly.
Really sorry! Feel better soon. You did the right and selfless thing in testing.
Fair enough. I have seen a number of different studies. Did you search for any of those?
Yes we have been using waste water testing throughout. It’s a routine daily thing all our facilities do.
And going back to each others houses after.
Thanks. Yeah, wasn’t prepared to ignore it and put others at risk for the sake of my Christmas.
I agree about the schools
they are probably hoping less Christmas drunks at 8pm than 11pm
Won’t be the first time time that’s been followed a few weeks later by a text that says “You might want to get yourself tested”
Get well soon! Hope you’re feeling a bit better for Christmas Day
15 minute observation?
I've had 2 jabs and i was in and out in 1 half minutes maximum.
Think my mum and dad only at the beginning had that observation period on the first jabs.
That was my first thought but you can only have so many big house parties. The usual post pub drinks will involve 2 or 3 households hanging out together. The big fear is superspreader events with dozens of different households crammed into a pub together for 5 or 6 hours. And we all know that the social distancing stuff has gone out the window in pubs recently.
Probably less of a risk for restaurants but differentiating pubs and restaurants has been proven not to work with that “substantial meal” nonsense last wave.
Last night in London, around Soho and China Town it was very quiet (especially for a Thursday) and today midday on Regent and Oxford St again very quiet.
I think it's a mix of less people working in offices and tourists and the resident tourists all going back home again for christmas.
Hopefully it will slow London rises over the next week or so.
I think it's a mix of less people working in offices and tourists and the resident tourists all going back home again for christmas.
Hopefully it will slow London rises over the next week or so.
I think I might have just had Omicron yesterday, probably started the day before. Yesterday I felt tired and I had that body ache feeling you get whilst you are recovering after a cold. The one where you keep wanting to stretch like a cat? Today I feel back to normal. If I just felt tired yesterday I wouldn't even mention it but it's the combination of feeling tired and the body ache feeling along with the rapid spread throughout the world. So, it's definitely possible right? Mild is an understatement. I am 42, a smoker and unvaccinated. I'm just wondering why so many people are scared to death of Omicron? I've never been scared of this Covid at any point, but I can understand why some were scared at the beginning, assuming it was much more deadly. Why now though? Omicron is much milder and you've all been jabbed up to the eyeballs. Why are you still scared? Makes no sense to me!
I would guess a big part of it is simply signalling to the public that they should be socialising less. It's something they've been messaging already and a change like this re-emphasises it.
Plus there's bound to be a certain degree to which less contact time between people reduces transmission.
The hope would have to be people thinking there’s no point going out if I have to go home at 8 anyway and just not bother. It feels like sticking a plaster on a bullet wound though.
I think it’s one of those policies that seems stupid if you analyse it at a micro level but will probably tilt the needle at a macro level. Even if it’s only a heavy-handed reminder that we could be in very deep shit soon if people don’t cut down their social contacts. Don’t reckon it will tilt the needle much though.
A 'no-lockdown' policy he is advocating there will only work as long as the medical and health system doesn't break down though. We've just had another lockdown because of exactly that reason. And it did help. Brought the numbers down quickly again. It's the only thing that works as a wave breaker