He said he’d seen a leaked document months ago and this variant was scheduled to be released in May of next year
He had scissors in his hand so I was just nodding along to everything he was saying
SARS CoV-2 coronavirus / Covid-19 (No tin foil hat silliness please)
- Thread starter Don't Kill Bill
- Start date
He said he’d seen a leaked document months ago and this variant was scheduled to be released in May of next year
He had scissors in his hand so I was just nodding along to everything he was saying
This graph is somewhat reassuring (even though highly speculative)
It's here.
If it accounts for the recent increase in cases in London then the numbers could jump fast.
If it accounts for the recent increase in cases in London then the numbers could jump fast.
When does the 'guinea pigs' phase end, for these people? We're a year into vaccinations now, with hundreds of millions of people vaccinated. If anything disastrous was going to happen, it would have happened by now.
I admit I was surprised when Sturgeon said they were unlikely to be linked to COP26. As a mass event with people travelling from all over the world and limited controls, it sounded like a major risk factor. It's not hard to imagine catering staff or security staff being affected - and as they're likely to be young and relatively fit, perhaps not even symptomatic. Purely speculative at this stage of course, but it's as wrong to discount things as blame them.
Meanwhile, thinking of potential superspreader events:
Cop26 didn't use vaccine passports
So we having Christmas parties or what?
Looks like Ireland is shutting down sadly
Looks like Ireland is shutting down sadly
Eh, no we aren’t.
You aren't? Night clubs closing over Christmas and New Year, restrictions on mixing in households, table service only at pubs?
Doesn't look great. Right over Christmas through the new year.
I'd love a lockdown here in the UK for a month in January.
Ideally the gyms stay open but if not, I'll still take it.
Ideally the gyms stay open but if not, I'll still take it.
Idiot. Italian tries to use fake arm to get Covid certificate
https://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-59524527
https://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-59524527
Most of society is open. It’s a hell of a lot better than last year.
I really don't think so. Don't think the government will do it again here nor do I see the public accepting it. Definitely not over Christmas and New Year anyway.
Oh of course. Still rubbish for you guys though right through the holidays. Hope you all have a good one and it gets no more stringent than that.
I’d say you could maybe wing it as you are until Christmas? That’s a long time away though. The first known specimen in South Africa was identified three weeks ago. You have >100 cases already confirmed in England as of today. And Christmas is three weeks away.
I have a habit of getting over obsessed about negative stuff on here but I can’t see this being anything other than an absolute nightmare. And the countries who are slow to react could be in big big trouble. Hope I’m wrong, obviously.
When the feeling's gone and you can't go on it's... Disaster
A working from home order will surely be actioned ASAP in England now, won’t it?
The UK government is playing Russian Roulette with a fully loaded gun.
The UK government is playing Russian Roulette with a fully loaded gun.
I think exactly that. They will muddle through Christmas and New Year then face the repercussions afterwards. So long as hospitals aren't being over run and deaths don't climb I can't see anything shifting at number 10 nor will public acceptance of any return to strict regulations.
Feck me seems like only yesterday I posted about it going from a few hundred to 3500 in 2 weeks.
U.K. Might just be a one day outlier and need to see if it become a new baseline but on the 2nd Dec there were 53,000 new infections, two weeks before that it usual was around 39,000 per day… although there was one day with 47,00 which was an outlier
Not sure UK will go into another lockdown but do think vaccine passports in England will come in. Honestly cannot see argument against them before omicron and think they would have relatively high public acceptance and cooperation.
Boris seems to have held out simply because of the objections of far right nut jobs upon who his own job remains reliant
Boris seems to have held out simply because of the objections of far right nut jobs upon who his own job remains reliant
I don't like the look of the London positive tests by specimen date data, from UK gov covid data
The last week shows a jump of around 25% (using day of week to day of week comparisons). Sometimes these are just testing patterns and similar quirks but given it's the whole of London, not just one borough, that would be unusual.
If a significant proportion of the rise is from Omicron then it's a different scale of worry. London's case rates have been fairly stable during the Delta wave and amongst the lowest in the country. It's also a region with high rates of past infection and relatively low vaccination rates. We may be amount to get more data about Omicron and immunity than anyone wanted.
The last week shows a jump of around 25% (using day of week to day of week comparisons). Sometimes these are just testing patterns and similar quirks but given it's the whole of London, not just one borough, that would be unusual.
If a significant proportion of the rise is from Omicron then it's a different scale of worry. London's case rates have been fairly stable during the Delta wave and amongst the lowest in the country. It's also a region with high rates of past infection and relatively low vaccination rates. We may be amount to get more data about Omicron and immunity than anyone wanted.
And as soon as I posted that musing, up popped this series of tweets on London. These come from one of the people who highlighted the strangely misbehaving PCR tests (negative PCR following positive LFT) in the South west.
Looking at the age demographics could the rise be related to waning protection in 40 year olds who are now due to get the jab? Unlike the previous generations at 6 months, they're more likely to have younger kids and be out and about so could be more affected if immunity is fading from previous jabs.
If it is omicron the higher age groups are almost totally unaffected which would be good for vaccine boosters.
That’s something I’m only just getting my head around. Even if it’s 50% less virulent if it’s more transmissible and has a degree of immune escape then the overall outcome can still be a lot worse than delta.
Plus you can’t ignore that the mutations which made the previous variants more transmissible also ended up making them more virulent. So we’re hoping for a hell of a lucky break for that trend to be reversed here.
Hard to tell really, but why that would hit London more suddenly than other areas isn't obvious to me.
Up until now the trends have been subtle but easy to understand.
The most deprived areas (using ONS postcode) had the highest infection rates for a long time. Since things have fully reopened, case rates have risen sharpest in places where previous infection rates were low - including the least deprived areas, where previously uninfected (unvaxxed) school kids have had very high case rates.
You can see that effect if you look at the areas in/around London. The sudden jumps from low levels are in areas where we thought they had a lot of immunity through past infection - not just for kids but for adults as well, including some boroughs with low vaccination rates. That's the thing that kind of flashes Omicron warning lights to me.
It could be Christmas parties or waning vaccine immunity of course. If it's the latter then boosters are going to rescue us. If it's party season Delta, then party season Omicron is still a joy that awaits.
Looks like the virus loves to party. That 60 people infected at a party, now looks like at least 80 - PCR positive, not all are sequenced yet, so we don't know if this is all omicron.
That's a staggering attack rate by any standard.
That's a staggering attack rate by any standard.
Jaysus! Staggering really when you realise that the original virus would cause 1 person to infect 3 to start off with.
Boris specifically said not the other day, even with Omicron about. Says that the extra precautions he’s laid out will be enough.
That’s more likely to be an indicator that the opposite will happen. I’m also sceptical of the idea that the British public will be anti-lockdown. Mask mandate adherence where I am has surprised even me. It’s really high. Polling has shown throughout the pandemic that the public overwhelmingly support lockdowns. The libertarian voice is noisy here though and has representation in government.
Most people infected no one, or only the people they lived with, but there was always talk of superspreaders (individuals or events). The version that raced through Europe in early 2020 seemed to really get travelling with some superspreader parties at ski resorts.
I suspect we'll see a lot of firms/staff vote with their feet this week - and cancel party bookings etc. Or at least try and turn them into staff lunch for a small department, sitting down at a restaurant rather than doing pub crawls with party games for dozens.
Obviously the Downing Street and Westminster parties will go ahead, as they'll be attended by affluent and like-minded people.
Polling is only high because their wages were supported.
People won’t adhere to a Christmas lockdown imo. An Ireland style set of restrictions yes, but not a full lockdown like last Christmas.
London has very low vaccine take up but high infection of previous variants. Maybe previous infection was protecting the capital but it isn’t useful for omicron due to its reinfection avoidance traits
…I say sat in a Leicester Square pub. Triple jabbed though
In between the more general discussion, I'd like to squeeze in a question about the incubation period of this virus.
My mother was at a book club meeting with some other older ladies last Tuesday night. This morning (Saturday), she got a call that the lady who hosted the meeting has Covid. My mother has no complaints or symptoms yet, but according to protocol she made an appointment to get herself tested. It was advised that she'd take her test tomorrow morning (Sunday), that's 4.5 days after the meeting.
Then it will take up to 48 hours for the result to come in. Now obviously I understand there's a chance she caught it and gets a positive test, even though she's vaccinated and they held the meeting keeping 1.5 meters distance from each other. But what I'm wondering about is: what would it really mean if she gets a negative result on Monday or Tuesday morning?
There's so much conflicting information about the incubation time, and to my limited understanding a negative test result in this case still doesn't mean she's safe? Would that be correct? Because I read stories about people developing symptoms up to 10-14 days after exposure. So maybe she won't test positive until 7-12 days after the meeting?
And so I guess the question is: when do you really know for sure someone who's been in contact with a person who 100% has covid, hasn't got it themselves and it's safe to visit them again? Because there was a plan for me to pick up my mom in my car next week, but I'm not sure if that's safe/a good idea for me in terms of exposure, even in the scenario where she did get a negative test result and has no symptoms.
My mother was at a book club meeting with some other older ladies last Tuesday night. This morning (Saturday), she got a call that the lady who hosted the meeting has Covid. My mother has no complaints or symptoms yet, but according to protocol she made an appointment to get herself tested. It was advised that she'd take her test tomorrow morning (Sunday), that's 4.5 days after the meeting.
Then it will take up to 48 hours for the result to come in. Now obviously I understand there's a chance she caught it and gets a positive test, even though she's vaccinated and they held the meeting keeping 1.5 meters distance from each other. But what I'm wondering about is: what would it really mean if she gets a negative result on Monday or Tuesday morning?
There's so much conflicting information about the incubation time, and to my limited understanding a negative test result in this case still doesn't mean she's safe? Would that be correct? Because I read stories about people developing symptoms up to 10-14 days after exposure. So maybe she won't test positive until 7-12 days after the meeting?
And so I guess the question is: when do you really know for sure someone who's been in contact with a person who 100% has covid, hasn't got it themselves and it's safe to visit them again? Because there was a plan for me to pick up my mom in my car next week, but I'm not sure if that's safe/a good idea for me in terms of exposure, even in the scenario where she did get a negative test result and has no symptoms.
I think you’re safe to assume the virus is out her system 14 days after contact.
Yeah that's what I figured too, and obviously I will contact the health services about this after the test result comes in, just that I couldn't really find any conclusive information about this.
For delta, almost all cases will show up on PCR between 3-7 days after exposure. For omicron - who knows - with other variants it was more like 4-10.
That's good to know, thanks!