SARS CoV-2 coronavirus / Covid-19 (No tin foil hat silliness please)

McGrathsipan said:
There is alot of talk about vaccines in children.

So if the vaccine doesnt stop transmission and Corona isnt really dangerous to kids why would they need to get vaccinated?
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The vaccine makes transmission less likely. No-on wants Covid going round and round groups of unvaccinated children, who are then in contact with older people at home. It's not just about the person being vaccinated, it's also about everyone else - as is always the case with public health issues.

My great-nephew had Covid recently, he's 12. Although he wasn't very ill, he's still struggling with fatigue weeks later. His parents are very pro-vaccine, but he was just too young to get one before he caught Covid at school.
 
McGrathsipan said:
There is alot of talk about vaccines in children.

So if the vaccine doesnt stop transmission and Corona isnt really dangerous to kids why would they need to get vaccinated?
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It does reduce transmission. In kids it massively reduces infection rates (and if you don't catch it, you can't pass it on), and it reduces severity (and transmission) in those unlucky enough to catch it. That also reduces the number of school days etc they miss, as well as any spin-offs in terms of protecting classmates and other people.

The "dangerous to kids" thing is relative. Covid is more dangerous to kids (in terms of deaths/hospitalisations) than the covid vaccine. There's also still a lot of debate about what proportion of under 18s who do catch covid have lasting (one month plus) after-effects, but again those long covid issues are far more common than vaccine after effects.

In the UK, the MHRA/JCVI have gone for a slow and cautious approach but still recommended a single dose for 12-15s and a double dose for 16+.
 
Just got a positive reading on an Antigen test. Horrible sore throat and cough right now, going for the PCR tomorrow.
 
2cents said:
Just got a positive reading on an Antigen test. Horrible sore throat and cough right now, going for the PCR tomorrow.
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You know you've got it.

We've got it in the house at the minute. 2xpositive lateral flows... We've been for the PCR and it's confirmed what we already knew.

Hopefully you don't suffer too much.
 
antsmithmk said:
You know you've got it.

We've got it in the house at the minute. 2xpositive lateral flows... We've been for the PCR and it's confirmed what we already knew.

Hopefully you don't suffer too much.
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Yep, five in our house and we’re all coughing. Including my three month old which is a bit concerning.
 
jojojo said:
It does reduce transmission. In kids it massively reduces infection rates (and if you don't catch it, you can't pass it on), and it reduces severity (and transmission) in those unlucky enough to catch it. That also reduces the number of school days etc they miss, as well as any spin-offs in terms of protecting classmates and other people.

The "dangerous to kids" thing is relative. Covid is more dangerous to kids (in terms of deaths/hospitalisations) than the covid vaccine. There's also still a lot of debate about what proportion of under 18s who do catch covid have lasting (one month plus) after-effects, but again those long covid issues are far more common than vaccine after effects.

In the UK, the MHRA/JCVI have gone for a slow and cautious approach but still recommended a single dose for 12-15s and a double dose for 16+.
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Not to mention that if you want to get to HIT you need to vaccinate kids U12. We are going to pass 95% adult vaccination in some states (and 90+% nationally I'd guess) and the 12+'s are catching up fast but unless you vaccinate kids under 12 that almost certainly won't be enough of the total population to get to HIT, given that the vaccines aren't sterilising.

And we routinely vaccinate kids to protect them and protect the whole population so why treat this as any different?
 
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Wibble said:
Not to mention that if you want to get to HIT you need to vaccinate kids U12. We are going to pass 95% adult vaccination in some states (and 90+% nationally I'd guess) and the 12+'s are catching up fast but unless you vaccinate kids under 12 that almost certainly won't be enough of the total population to get to HIT, given that the vaccines aren't sterilising.

And we routinely vaccinate kids to protect them and protect the whole population so why treat this as any different?
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What do you mean by HIT in this context? Eradicating the delta variant is off the table, unfortunately. Not with this generation of vaccines anyway. The higher the vaccination levels (and boosters) the better the health service will cope but there isn’t any specific threshold we should be aiming for.

So any decision re vaccinating young kids should be based on risk vs benefit in those young kids. Which is the same approach we always us when vaccinating kids. But with this virus the risk following infection is so low it makes for a tricky decision.
 
Pogue Mahone said:
What do you mean by HIT in this context? Eradicating the delta variant is off the table, unfortunately. Not with this generation of vaccines anyway. The higher the vaccination levels (and boosters) the better the health service will cope but there isn’t any specific threshold we should be aiming for.

So any decision re vaccinating young kids should be based on risk vs benefit in those young kids. Which is the same approach we always us when vaccinating kids. But with this virus the risk following infection is so low it makes for a tricky decision.
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Is it even for Delta given it looks like Delta isn't as infectious as we first though, or at least that was what a few things I read recently suggested? Current HIT estimates seem to be 80-88% for Delta and with the Delta tweaked Pfizer (and maybe Moderna) vaccines on the way we could be in the ballpark in the few places who have high enough vaccination rates and booster/third shots.

And I totally disagree with basing childhood vaccination on individual risk/reward. Kids are part of society as well and should be vaccinated for the greater good just like everyone else.
 
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jojojo said:
A snapshot of how Europe's looking at the moment. Different countries are actually at different points on the case rate curve. Poland, for example, is coming back down from a peak. Others, like Germany, are still rising.

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We are not coming back from any peak. There are no restrictions whatsoever. Most people won’t even care to quarantine when tested, we got about 45% vaccinated (with another 5% using false certificates) and approx 30% of our population do not believe COVID exists.

Our cases number is dictated purely by the number of tests we can perform each day. Our government straight up admit they won’t do anything because they fear that people will not like any restrictions. Hospitals are packed, doctors are overloaded and nobody cares about the 500-600 dying everyday as long as they can carry on with their normal lives.

If we increase tests capacity, which we will have to do by Christmas, we will be hitting 50k a day easily. 1k deaths per day should be quite easy too.
 
Wibble said:
Is it even for Delta given it looks like Delta isn't as infectious as we first though, or at least that was what a few things I read recently suggested? Current HIT estimates seem to be 80-88% for Delta and with the Delta tweaked Pfizer (and maybe Moderna) vaccines on the way we could be in the ballpark in the few places who have high enough vaccination rates and booster/third shots.

And I totally disagree with basing childhood vaccination on individual risk/reward. Kids are part of society as well and should be vaccinated for the greater good just like everyone else.
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Nobody is ever vaccinated for anything other than their own benefit. The greater good is secondary. You can’t ethically medicate anyone if the individual risk is greater than the individual benefit. Diseases like measles, mumps and rubella can have devastating consequences for kids so vaccinating them is a no brainer. With SARS-COV-2 it’s a much much harder decision. And gets more and more difficult the younger the children are.

Re HIT have you any links about delta being less infectious then previously thought? I’ve read nothing remotely positive about it. And would be amazed if <90 vaccine coverage could eradicate it. I haven’t heard a single expert talk about HIT as a concept we should be aiming for since delta took over.
 
Pogue Mahone said:
Nobody is ever vaccinated for anything other than their own benefit. The greater good is secondary. You can’t ethically medicate anyone if the individual risk is greater than the individual benefit. Diseases like measles, mumps and rubella can have devastating consequences for kids so vaccinating them is a no brainer. With SARS-COV-2 it’s a much much harder decision. And gets more and more difficult the younger the children are.
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And I totally disagree with that approach. The primary goal of vaccination should be for the greater good and the secondary one individual. I drive very safely but I don't think I should be exempt from seatbelt or chrashhelmet laws.

Re HIT have you any links about delta being less infectious then previously thought? I’ve read nothing remotely positive about it. And would be amazed if <90 vaccine coverage could eradicate it. I haven’t heard a single expert talk about HIT as a concept we should be aiming for since delta took over.
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I'll try to find it. I think it was a Chief Medical officer here in Au who was saying they thought that we were controlling Delta faster than anticipated partly due to overestimating how infectious Delta was partly die to the demographics of where the spread was occurring (high density housing/multi-generational households) so the effect of vaccination in these areas was greater than anticipated. I'll see if I can find it.

HIT is probably unlikely even if the Delta tweaked vaccines are much better because most countries aren't going to get a high enough vaccination rate. Even here in AU some states will exceed 95% of adults (ACT is already over 100% first shot), 90%+ of 12+ and probably 80%+ of 5+, but the overall rate for adults might not get past 90% in some states particularly in country/right wing areas.

Interestingly we are likely to keep some mask mandates here in NSW even after we top 95% of adults fully vaxxed.
 
Sarni said:
We are not coming back from any peak. There are no restrictions whatsoever. Most people won’t even care to quarantine when tested, we got about 45% vaccinated (with another 5% using false certificates) and approx 30% of our population do not believe COVID exists.

Our cases number is dictated purely by the number of tests we can perform each day. Our government straight up admit they won’t do anything because they fear that people will not like any restrictions. Hospitals are packed, doctors are overloaded and nobody cares about the 500-600 dying everyday as long as they can carry on with their normal lives.

If we increase tests capacity, which we will have to do by Christmas, we will be hitting 50k a day easily. 1k deaths per day should be quite easy too.
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Yep, looks like I got misled by a temporary blip in the data. Which I shouldn't do, as I know that case rates are massively misleading and that death rates in particular are prone to delayed reporting and a kind of political massaging.

In terms of the LSHTM model for risk level for European countries, Poland remains very high up the list.
 
Massive Spanner said:
The Soviets really did a number on Eastern Europe!

Mad that we have even higher vaccination rates than the Nordics. Almost makes me think that most Irish people aren't complete idiots after all... nah.
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Never underestimate the desire to drink pints inside the pub.
 
Wibble said:
Is it even for Delta given it looks like Delta isn't as infectious as we first though, or at least that was what a few things I read recently suggested? Current HIT estimates seem to be 80-88% for Delta and with the Delta tweaked Pfizer (and maybe Moderna) vaccines on the way we could be in the ballpark in the few places who have high enough vaccination rates and booster/third shots.

And I totally disagree with basing childhood vaccination on individual risk/reward. Kids are part of society as well and should be vaccinated for the greater good just like everyone else.
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The UK is already over 90% previously infected or vaxxed and still showing antibodies. We're not at HIT even within subgroups. It's very unlikely that there is a realistic HIT of simultaneous immunity that can push the R rate of Delta reliably below 1 - especially in countries where life is spent largely indoors for months at a time.

In the UK, we are approaching what looks like an endemic balance with vaccine boosters providing something close to temporary immunity and pushing the disease into a much milder form for almost everyone.

On the broader point about vaccinating kids for the good of the herd. I don't buy it, it has to remain a risk-benefit analysis for children. Though I'm happy to include things like open schools, no limitations on play/sports/socialising, no masks and similar mitigations, no limits on travel, no fear of accidentally killing granny etc in the benefit column.

The individual driven analysis always has to be done though. The UK regulators are cautious on the subject - they still haven't approved a second dose for 12-15s for example. They may never do it. Personally, I'm glad about that, it means they take it seriously.
 
We are tightening the rules still further in Italy on the unvaccinated.

- From 6 December there will be a 'Super' Green Pass that is only for vaccinated or recovered, no more negative tests allowed, and the duration of the second dose validity reduces to 9 months. This will be required for restaurants, cinemas, theatres, gyms etc. Essentially any leisure activities. From December the third dose is open to all adults.

- The regular Green Pass that includes negative tests will now only be valid for going to work and travelling, but it will be required for all travel, even commuter rail/buses.

- Vaccination is being made compulsory for all teachers, military, police and public aid workers. It's already compulsory for healthcare staff.

Basically the message is get vaccinated and life goes back to normal.
 
11101 said:
We are tightening the rules still further in Italy on the unvaccinated.

- From 6 December there will be a 'Super' Green Pass that is only for vaccinated or recovered, no more negative tests allowed, and the duration of the second dose validity reduces to 9 months. This will be required for restaurants, cinemas, theatres, gyms etc. Essentially any leisure activities. From December the third dose is open to all adults.

- The regular Green Pass that includes negative tests will now only be valid for going to work and travelling, but it will be required for all travel, even commuter rail/buses.

- Vaccination is being made compulsory for all teachers, military, police and public aid workers. It's already compulsory for healthcare staff.

Basically the message is get vaccinated and life goes back to normal.
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Jaysus. Checking vaccine certs getting on buses and trains will be a headache. I was in Paris recently where they were checked going into museums and art galleries and the queues were monstrous.
 
Pogue Mahone said:
Jaysus. Checking vaccine certs getting on buses and trains will be a headache. I was in Paris recently where they were checked going into museums and art galleries and the queues were monstrous.
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People are used to it. I go to the San Siro quite a lot and by now people know to expect the checks and get themselves prepared, queues are no different than they were before Covid. Still, I'm guessing they will only bother to check in terminus stations and hubs. There's no way they could check on most local railway stations where people come from all directions including the tracks.

Currently the new rules apply until mid January so it could just be something they're doing to see us through the winter peak.
 
11101 said:
We are tightening the rules still further in Italy on the unvaccinated.

- From 6 December there will be a 'Super' Green Pass that is only for vaccinated or recovered, no more negative tests allowed, and the duration of the second dose validity reduces to 9 months. This will be required for restaurants, cinemas, theatres, gyms etc. Essentially any leisure activities. From December the third dose is open to all adults.

- The regular Green Pass that includes negative tests will now only be valid for going to work and travelling, but it will be required for all travel, even commuter rail/buses.

- Vaccination is being made compulsory for all teachers, military, police and public aid workers. It's already compulsory for healthcare staff.

Basically the message is get vaccinated and life goes back to normal.
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Why weren't the existing measures working? What's the ultimate goal the Italian government are aiming for?
 
F-Red said:
Why weren't the existing measures working? What's the ultimate goal the Italian government are aiming for?
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They were working. They are worried about another wave coming over winter. Covid has already killed a lot of the elderly but we still have the second oldest population in Europe.
 
11101 said:
They were working. They are worried about another wave coming over winter. Covid has already killed a lot of the elderly but we still have the second oldest population in Europe.
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Not really. Cases are increasing. If the previous measures were working then they wouldn’t need new ones.

It looks like every country in Europe is going to have to negotiate this delta wave sooner (Uk) or later (Italy)
 
Pogue Mahone said:
Jaysus. Checking vaccine certs getting on buses and trains will be a headache. I was in Paris recently where they were checked going into museums and art galleries and the queues were monstrous.
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It is very little problem. We have to scan in to.all venues and show your electronic checkin. The same app shows your vaccination status linked to your Medicare record. Zero hassle.
 
Pogue Mahone said:
Not really. Cases are increasing. If the previous measures were working then they wouldn’t need new ones.

It looks like every country in Europe is going to have to negotiate this delta wave sooner (Uk) or later (Italy)
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I thought the UK was tracking in a different way to most of Europe, and that cases were coming down/relatively stabilised since Oct - particularly in England?
 
Pogue Mahone said:
Not really. Cases are increasing. If the previous measures were working then they wouldn’t need new ones.

It looks like every country in Europe is going to have to negotiate this delta wave sooner (Uk) or later (Italy)
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Cases are expected to increase, it's just a matter of how much is allowed. This is a preventative measure mostly.

This is what they're most concerned with:

https://public.flourish.studio/visualisation/3638326/

I cant embed that but it's saying there are 4,500 people in hospital currently compared with 35,000 exactly one year ago. 500 in ICU compared with over 4,000 at the peak. As long as those lines stay smooth and low, they'll consider the measures successful.
 
Pogue Mahone said:
Completely different scenario checking into venues and piling onto a bus or train when it pulls into the station.
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We have to do exactly the same for public transport. That said this will mostly stop when we top 95% fully vaxxed soon. Masks on public transport and checking in to pubs and concerts will remain but not much else.
 
groovyalbert said:
I thought the UK was tracking in a different way to most of Europe, and that cases were coming down/relatively stabilised since Oct - particularly in England?
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The medium term trend is still going up and has been since August.
 
11101 said:
They were working. They are worried about another wave coming over winter. Covid has already killed a lot of the elderly but we still have the second oldest population in Europe.
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If they were working, then they wouldn't need to move to a draconian next step surely?

I admire the confidence, but I don't believe those next steps will deal with the delta wave. There's an inevitability about it all, and mandatory vaccination for professions like teachers probably isn't the right approach to tackle the delta wave. Healthcare workers or those in care makes the most sense.
 
Wibble said:
We have to do exactly the same for public transport. That said this will mostly stop when we top 95% fully vaxxed soon. Masks on public transport and checking in to pubs and concerts will remain but not much else.
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Unfortunately, hitting x% fully vaxxed won’t necessarily mean a return to normality, as we’re finding out in Ireland. By the time the last few % get vaccinated the protection offered to the first cohort will already be waning. Cases increase again and the emphasis switches to boosters.

On the plus side, the increase in cases with waning vaccine efficacy won’t slam hospitals as badly as it would in an un-vaccinated population. So it is possible (hopefully) to avoid the lockdowns we’re seeing in countries with very low vax rates. In the longer term we have to hope that the third booster dose gives much longer/better protection than the first two. Early data on this is encouraging (although am anxiously checking Israel’s case rates every few days!).
 
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F-Red said:
If they were working, then they wouldn't need to move to a draconian next step surely?

I admire the confidence, but I don't believe those next steps will deal with the delta wave. There's an inevitability about it all, and mandatory vaccination for professions like teachers probably isn't the right approach to tackle the delta wave. Healthcare workers or those in care makes the most sense.
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Mandatory HCW vaccination was done months ago, teachers/police/military etc. is now about expanding it.

What we really have is Austria's lockdown for the unvaccinated. It just hasn't been announced as such.
 
In Bayern/Bavaria, now to go to gym I need to do a test despite that I am vaccinated. This is extremely inconvenient. They are refusing to make a vaccine mandate, but making the life harder for the vaccinated seems ok.
 
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