I was feeling optimistic about everything until this new variant. Let's hope the data is misleading and it's a false alarm somehow.
SARS CoV-2 coronavirus / Covid-19 (No tin foil hat silliness please)
- Thread starter Don't Kill Bill
- Start date
Oh of course, thanks. Hope for the best for now then, just from a selfish point of view.
Not really. Three main unknowns are does it cause more severe illness? Is it more transmissible? Does it evade an immune response? (prior infection or vaccine)
The mutations it has make it likely that it is more transmissible and evades immunity but there’s no hard evidence to confirm either of these possibilities. It’s spiking in a country with only 25% vaccinated so can’t necessarily be blamed on vaccine escape.
But their delta surge was almost over which is most likely down to immunity from prior infection. So if you see covid cases surging…
Mask wearing in shops and working from home should be brought in now in England but bozo Boris will just delay and delay and it’ll be another Christmas lockdown.
Why if it's 59 cases that have been discovered in South Africa, Hong Kong and Botswana so far?
Just on this new variant and the increase in cases here in South Africa:
- vaccination rates are much lower.
- cases were extremely low prior to the emergence of this variant. It’s not impossible that a small cluster outbreak of a new variant can seem dominant.
- there seems to be a real rush to investigate this new variant, so testing and sequencing may be focusing on areas of an outbreak.
- we are now including antigen test results (I think that’s the right word) in case numbers. Previously it was only PCR test results.
- PCR tests can detect the new variant, whereas Delta requires sequencing I think. So it’s much easier to attribute more cases to the new variant.
Just looking for some positives before the end of humanity.
- vaccination rates are much lower.
- cases were extremely low prior to the emergence of this variant. It’s not impossible that a small cluster outbreak of a new variant can seem dominant.
- there seems to be a real rush to investigate this new variant, so testing and sequencing may be focusing on areas of an outbreak.
- we are now including antigen test results (I think that’s the right word) in case numbers. Previously it was only PCR test results.
- PCR tests can detect the new variant, whereas Delta requires sequencing I think. So it’s much easier to attribute more cases to the new variant.
Just looking for some positives before the end of humanity.
59 was reported here - https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-59424269. Regardless, I can't see the need to call for mandated mask wearing & working from home off the back of something which isn't even in the UK yet @Garethw
Yes totally for it, cases have been rising 40% every week and the government here has promised strong measures since the partial lockdown 2 weeks ago. These aggressive measures will possibly include shutting down hospitality a couple of hours earlier ffs. Again bottled it and another punishment for the fully vaxxed.
Because we are averaging over 45k infections daily and are hitting 1000 deaths a week for the first time in over 6 months.
It wasn’t in relation to that new variant.
Good thread on all the mutations, if anyone wants to get nerdy.
Do you really think it's just going to be a few cases? It's probably vastly underreported right now.
Sigh. Time to stock up on toilet paper.
Not at all, it'll spread like wildfire. However in the context of the UK adjusting mask mandates and working from home, which is what I responding to, off the back of this news it is somewhat naive.
We have been here with many other variants, time will tell on it's impact.
Point taken, unfortunately. The UK has to put on a travel ban, but it will already be here, or on it's way with people taking roundabout routes in. And if it's too late for us it will for you too, sorry to say.
Had to happen the same fecking day we hire Rangnick.
The lord giveth…
The lord giveth…
My comment was in relation to the UK’s current situation. Not because of this variant.
Things are unlikely to get better over the next few months and I’d much rather we reintroduce mask wearing and working from home now as it will give us a fighting chance to stop another national lockdown.
A lockdown based on what though? Hospitalisation and deaths are declining, cases have been broadly static for the last 2-3 months.
75% of local UK authorities are seeing a week on week increase in cases.
When you have a tooth infection you see a dentist and get it drilled and filled. You don’t wait until you get an abscess and the tooth has to be pulled.
Preventative action right now will go a long way to stopping any future winter lockdown.
Surely the vaccines can be tweaked pretty quickly to protect against this variant though?
Current case rate has been stable:
It has been fairly stable in terms of the consistent number since the reopening. Various peaks and troughs on a linear level.
The data isn't suggesting we need to go into any lockdown in the future. The key point is the hospitalisation number, vaccines are working & booster uptake is rising. The UK about 50% down where we were this time last year in terms of hopistalisation's, and a downward trend is currently happening on that number. Again, based on that information, why would we need to go into a lockdown? It makes no logical sense on the current & expected position.
Everything stays the same but keeps getting worse.
Rinse & repeat?
Pretty much. It's difficult to feel any sort of positivity with this latest news, just expecting it to be very bad.
I think thats the prudent response.
Its so bloody messy, a new variant, vaccine mandates, different regions having different experiences etc etc.
We are now 19,000 people from having everyone above the age of 12 with at least one dose vaccinated and Aucklands outbreak has been stable between 150-200 cases a day for about 3 weeks now. Hope summer helps as well.
Thats what Im hoping can happen.
So, today's figures from South Africa make for some sobering reading:
Cases: 2,465 (up from 1275 yesterday and 589 a week ago)
Deaths: 114 (the most deaths since October 8th, up from 40 a week ago).
Cases: 2,465 (up from 1275 yesterday and 589 a week ago)
Deaths: 114 (the most deaths since October 8th, up from 40 a week ago).
https://www.abc.net.au/news/2021-11...trictions-imposed-over-new-covid-19/100652438
Well there goes our vaccine shield
Well there goes our vaccine shield
Ah shit, here we go again.
All this talk of boosters and now we may require a new round of altered vaccines. 
They haven’t yet been tweaked to give better protection against any of the previous variants. I’m not sure why. I think it’s because by the time a tweaked vaccine is ready to roll out the variant it’s designed to work against will probably already be old news. What we really need now is a vaccine that works against any and all coronaviruses. I know that one is being worked on. No idea how long it will be before it is available.
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I thought Pfizer's Delta tweaked vaccine were due any day now?
Not that I’m aware of?
The case increase is interesting. The death one is rather odd because there is usually a time lag between case and death. The only potential explanation would be that the new variant has been in circulation for a while now.
is there any solace to take from the fact it’s spreading in a low vaccination take-up country like SA?
While Ireland seem to be doing well on the face of it, I really don't understand why they aren't hammering out boosters using any means necessary. Another Christmas ruined is going to drive people insane. Surely the lost taxes over that period if we go into lockdown outweighs the cost of setting up vaccine centres again?
I think the logic is that they’re rolling boosters out at a rate that will give everyone a booster 6 months after their second jab. And there’s no need to give them any sooner. I can’t see any downside to giving them sooner myself. With obvious upsides.
Are boosters even worth it now this new variant is coming?