SARS CoV-2 coronavirus / Covid-19 (No tin foil hat silliness please)

11101 said:
America has approved to extend the booster program from over 65s and those with medical conditions to all over 18s. The most shocking thing about it is that 80-90% of the adult population already qualified under one of those two previous criteria :wenger:
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That simply cannot be true. Surely?
 
jojojo said:
And just as a reminder of what we're really talking about when we look at case numbers rising going into winter.

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Not really that stark, most people will probably contract it over Winter I'd imagine, and I'd imagine a small proportion of them will die, whereas the large proportion will recover.
Exactly what's happening right now really.
 
A basic update on where the UK (in particular England as it's the one with the fewest mitigations) is sitting now.

Broadly, England has had a R number wobbling around 1 for months. We currently have a (slowly) rising number of cases overall, mostly driven by high case rates in school students, and falling numbers of hospitalisations and deaths. That's a fragile balancing act, basically vaccines and boosters v virus.

This graph is only looking at the change in case rates by age. Anything below the one means cases are declining. Anything above the one means cases are increasing in that age group.

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If you look at booster rollout you can see what looks like the reason for that pattern. Booster doses in over 60s are rolling out fast, with very high rates already achieved in the 70-80 year olds.

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And what that means about actual case rates:
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Graphs from:
https://twitter.com/AlastairGrant4
https://twitter.com/john_actuary
 
Interesting article on why the UK's situation isn't quite as unexpected or as fragile as you might guess when you see our headline case rates.

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/health-59378849
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Those estimates come from one of the SAGE modelling teams.

You can get an idea of the analysis underlying that chart from this month's ONS antibody survey. Broadly, 95%+ of over 50s are double vaxxed and an increasing number have now had boosters. The ONS survey was done during the first week in November. In the race between vaccine waning and boosters things should still be improving.



Basically the message under all of this:
If you haven't been vaccinated, get vaccinated.
https://www.nhs.uk/conditions/coron...dose-of-the-coronavirus-covid-19-vaccination/
Or use a walk in centre

If you are eligible for a booster (over 40, or eligible for some other reason and second vaccine dose more than 5 months ago) make a booking for your booster:
https://www.nhs.uk/conditions/coron...ter-dose-of-the-coronavirus-covid-19-vaccine/

Walk-in centres are available if you're 40+ and you're 6 months past your second dose.
 
Anecdotal story

my mates 2 kids aged 9 and 13 are Covid positive. His youngest had it first, cough, sore throat and temperature. The temperate went away after 2 days but they saw fit to get him tested before taking him back to school. (Plus he had leukaemia when he was little more than a baby). Positive. No other symptoms just a lingering “cough”. Not even a full one, just the type where you are constantly making a sound like “ahem” to clear your throat.
their daughter who was one day away from getting her 2nd vaxx then tested positive.
mum and dad, despite being around them all the time, tested negative. They are both fully vaxxed.

the vaxx works people.
 
golden_blunder said:
Anecdotal story

my mates 2 kids aged 9 and 13 are Covid positive. His youngest had it first, cough, sore throat and temperature. The temperate went away after 2 days but they saw fit to get him tested before taking him back to school. (Plus he had leukaemia when he was little more than a baby). Positive. No other symptoms just a lingering “cough”. Not even a full one, just the type where you are constantly making a sound like “ahem” to clear your throat.
their daughter who was one day away from getting her 2nd vaxx then tested positive.
mum and dad, despite being around them all the time, tested negative. They are both fully vaxxed.

the vaxx works people.
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Totally similar in our house. All 3 kids came down with apparent colds of differing severity, all tested positive in various LFT's and PCR's and even though we'd all been together, round the dinner table, watching tv, tidying their rooms and hugging etc neither me nor Mrs Volumiza caught it. We put it solely down to the double jab. No other explanation.
 
golden_blunder said:
Anecdotal story

my mates 2 kids aged 9 and 13 are Covid positive. His youngest had it first, cough, sore throat and temperature. The temperate went away after 2 days but they saw fit to get him tested before taking him back to school. (Plus he had leukaemia when he was little more than a baby). Positive. No other symptoms just a lingering “cough”. Not even a full one, just the type where you are constantly making a sound like “ahem” to clear your throat.
their daughter who was one day away from getting her 2nd vaxx then tested positive.
mum and dad, despite being around them all the time, tested negative. They are both fully vaxxed.

the vaxx works people.
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Yeah, stuff like this gets lost in the general hysteria. Vaccines aren’t infallible but they’re fecking helpful!

Side note, it also supports the notion that kids pass it back and forth to each other but not so much to adults. A factor that influenced decision to keep schools open through previous surges :angel:
 
Pogue Mahone said:
Yeah, stuff like this gets lost in the general hysteria. Vaccines aren’t infallible but they’re fecking helpful!

Side note, it also supports the notion that kids pass it back and forth to each other but not so much to adults. A factor that influenced decision to keep schools open through previous surges :angel:
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You see that theory still doesn’t make complete sense to me; specially before we all got jabbed. You’re around your kids, hugging them etc but how did more connections to schools not be made?
 
golden_blunder said:
You see that theory still doesn’t make complete sense to me; specially before we all got jabbed. You’re around your kids, hugging them etc but how did more connections to schools not be made?
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Anecdotal, but, my partner is a teacher in a rough enough area, high incidence area, a lot of kids won't get tested. Parents will just pull them when they test positive and keep them off. The "pod" system meant if a child did test positive its only the 6 or so people they sit near that need to be checked as close contacts at the time, not the entire class that they've been playing with in yard, or out on the road after school.
 
golden_blunder said:
You see that theory still doesn’t make complete sense to me; specially before we all got jabbed. You’re around your kids, hugging them etc but how did more connections to schools not be made?
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I think kids are just less infectious. They’re more likely to have extremely mild symptoms and recover very quickly. Much less virus for them to spread around (even though they’re disgusting little animals). Very different to an adult coughing out huge clouds of bugs for a week or two at a time.

Vomiting bugs, on the other hand…
 
Just to give my 2 cents, when my sister lived at home and when she was a child minder and creche worker, myself and my brother's were guaranteed to have at least 6 colds a year, when she left that went to 2 and to 1 when she quit child minding, children do pass viruses but its the carrier's (A symptomatic) who cause the most harm.

By the way aren't colds a form of coronavirus and rhinovirus and others.
 
A snapshot of how Europe's looking at the moment. Different countries are actually at different points on the case rate curve. Poland, for example, is coming back down from a peak. Others, like Germany, are still rising.

 
Would appear to be pretty conclusive evidence regarding vaccines now!!
 
The Soviets really did a number on Eastern Europe!

Mad that we have even higher vaccination rates than the Nordics. Almost makes me think that most Irish people aren't complete idiots after all... nah.
 
Massive Spanner said:
The Soviets really did a number on Eastern Europe!

Mad that we have even higher vaccination rates than the Nordics. Almost makes me think that most Irish people aren't complete idiots after all... nah.
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They probably thought any free drug is a drug. Nah that’s harsh. Somehow we’ve got 93% vaxxed. No idea how!
 
Massive Spanner said:
The Soviets really did a number on Eastern Europe!

Mad that we have even higher vaccination rates than the Nordics. Almost makes me think that most Irish people aren't complete idiots after all... nah.
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golden_blunder said:
They probably thought any free drug is a drug. Nah that’s harsh. Somehow we’ve got 93% vaxxed. No idea how!
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Apparently our CFR is the lowest in the EU. Which gives me hope that we can get through crazy high case numbers without a lockdown.
 
golden_blunder said:
They probably thought any free drug is a drug. Nah that’s harsh. Somehow we’ve got 93% vaxxed. No idea how!
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:D I'm pretty sure we've one of the most educated adult populations in Europe, percentage wage. The Celtic Tiger really paid off in droves with that. Would assume there's a direct correlation as Portugal also have a very highly educated population. Plus the lack of a far right party is probably a biggie. Just look at the effect it's had on Austria.
 
When they say "over 40", does that include people aged 40 or not?
 
Massive Spanner said:
:D I'm pretty sure we've one of the most educated adult populations in Europe, percentage wage. The Celtic Tiger really paid off in droves with that. Would assume there's a direct correlation as Portugal also have a very highly educated population. Plus the lack of a far right party is probably a biggie. Just look at the effect it's had on Austria.
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Good points. Especially the right wing point. I know of people from Eastern Europe who seem to have been swayed. Sensible people that I used to work with
 
golden_blunder said:
Sorry what’s CFR?
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Case fatality rate. Number of confirmed cases divided by number dead. Basically the % chance of the average Irish person dying from covid if they catch it.

A very low CFR means we’re better than most at identifying cases, treating them or avoiding bad outcomes through vaccination (most likely vaccines main driver here)
 
jojojo said:
A snapshot of how Europe's looking at the moment. Different countries are actually at different points on the case rate curve. Poland, for example, is coming back down from a peak. Others, like Germany, are still rising.

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I wonder why Belgium is faring badly and Slovakia is doing so well. Actually, Slovakia i think i know why.

For reference the UK sits at 68.7% fully vaccinated and 32 deaths per million.
 
Our young boy has brought covid home from school and has infected only my wife so far. She didn't stand a chance really with his constant sneezing and coughing in her face.

Wondering what my chances of catching it are? I'd take 50% right now with two out of four of us infected!
 
11101 said:
I wonder why Belgium is faring badly and Slovakia is doing so well. Actually, Slovakia i think i know why.

For reference the UK sits at 68.7% fully vaccinated and 32 deaths per million.
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The EU chart is using adult vaccination stats. The most comparable figure from the UK is 80% double vaxxed (88% single vaxxed) amongst over 12s.

Slovakia has been seeing cases rise over the past couple of weeks again . I don't know what the lag is in their death reporting. Broadly - peak deaths will happen around 2/3 weeks behind peak cases. But the detail depends on how cases are distributed (age groups) and what vaccine coverage looks like in the over 70s (over 40s for hospitalisations). Do they have a young population?
 
jojojo said:
The EU chart is using adult vaccination stats. The most comparable figure from the UK is 80% double vaxxed (88% single vaxxed) amongst over 12s.

Slovakia has been seeing cases rise over the past couple of weeks again . I don't know what the lag is in their death reporting. Broadly - peak deaths will happen around 2/3 weeks behind peak cases. But the detail depends on how cases are distributed (age groups) and what vaccine coverage looks like in the over 70s (over 40s for hospitalisations). Do they have a young population?
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The makes the UK a bit of an outlier then. They're 3 times higher than they should be.

Slovakia - they've had Covid rules in place that might have skewed the demographic catching it, but that region has been blighted by underreporting all the way through. Can you trust their figures?
 
11101 said:
The makes the UK a bit of an outlier then. They're 3 times higher than they should be.

Slovakia - they've had Covid rules in place that might have skewed the demographic catching it, but that region has been blighted by underreporting all the way through. Can you trust their figures?
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Presumably that’s because earlier vaccine rollout than EU means higher proportion of people with waning vaccine efficacy.
 
Massive Spanner said:
:D I'm pretty sure we've one of the most educated adult populations in Europe, percentage wage. The Celtic Tiger really paid off in droves with that. Would assume there's a direct correlation as Portugal also have a very highly educated population. Plus the lack of a far right party is probably a biggie. Just look at the effect it's had on Austria.
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Even before the pandemic, the National Healthcare Service and the National Vaccination Program were two of the most trusted public institutions in Portugal, so the hesitation was almost non-existent. The far-right with their bs imported from the US are breaching this, though, but their numbers are still very very low.
 
Tried to get a PCR test earlier (UK) only to be told their were non available and to check back later. That's helpful.

Taken a lateral flow everyday for 5 days and all negative but this cough is doing my head in so want to be 100%.
 
mitChley said:
Tried to get a PCR test earlier (UK) only to be told their were non available and to check back later. That's helpful.

Taken a lateral flow everyday for 5 days and all negative but this cough is doing my head in so want to be 100%.
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Sounds like it's just a cough
 
mitChley said:
Tried to get a PCR test earlier (UK) only to be told their were non available and to check back later. That's helpful.

Taken a lateral flow everyday for 5 days and all negative but this cough is doing my head in so want to be 100%.
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Could be a respiratory tract infection. I've had that the last few weeks, and it seems to be doing the rounds.
 
There is alot of talk about vaccines in children.

So if the vaccine doesnt stop transmission and Corona isnt really dangerous to kids why would they need to get vaccinated?
 
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