Nah. No offence taken. You’re wrong.
SARS CoV-2 coronavirus / Covid-19 (No tin foil hat silliness please)
- Thread starter Don't Kill Bill
- Start date
Nah. No offence taken. You’re wrong.
The resistance to masks in the west is unbelievable.
fecking bizarre, its been 2+ months since I tested positive and I still can't smell shit smells, not with the previous intensity anyways. Its a bit alarming because that's an important safety mechanism.
The ONS covid report is out. The difference between this and the daily case rates is that this is about a random sampling distribution across the country, and minimises the effect of things like local surge testing, LTFs in schools. The downside is that it can't always see local outbreaks, so it didn't spot the case rise in Bolton initially, and inevitably it's already out of date as soon as it's published.
Cases are highest in parts of Scotland, the North East and North West - but growing across the country. Almost all cases are now Delta variant according to the latest PHE report.
Massive concentration of cases in the (mostly) unvaccinated 16-25 group now. This really is a race between the virus and the vaccine in terms of case rates across the country now. And we're massively dependant on the vaccines when it comes to keeping hospitalisations down.
Cases are highest in parts of Scotland, the North East and North West - but growing across the country. Almost all cases are now Delta variant according to the latest PHE report.
Massive concentration of cases in the (mostly) unvaccinated 16-25 group now. This really is a race between the virus and the vaccine in terms of case rates across the country now. And we're massively dependant on the vaccines when it comes to keeping hospitalisations down.
Massive concentration of cases in the (mostly) unvaccinated 16-25 group now but this population section is unlikely to get hospitalised on average.
The comparison of number of cases without putting the numbers of tests undertaken also restrict the value of the data provided... How many are tested? Who is tested? What is the average age of the tested person?
Given the success of the vaccination campaign and the easing of the lockdown (more social interactions...reopening of international travel that requires tests..), the number of cases is no longer the most interesting indicator.
The Covid was the opportunity to see the vast majority of the population does not how to analyse, understand and interpret data in a very careful and rigorous manner, which requires some skills, a form of intelligence and humility.
The population at risk is largely vaccinated so what would be interesting to see is the evolution of both the number of deaths and hospitalisations in the last weeks.
When I see this picture, I just believe life should go on...
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My test came back negative, and I have no desire to get that swab stuck back up my nose to confirm but I definitely have it.
No blocked nose and I have COMPLETELY lost smell, it is the worst ever, I can't enjoy a meal, it's depressing. How long did it take for you to get it back? How long for others who've had it?
I don't know how much longer I can take this, I love my food and not being to enjoy it is utterly depressing. I'd rather have the body pains and other stuff that to lose my smell and partially taste.
What I would give to smell shits even. I can't smell jack shite.
Unfortunately, I know somebody in the same situation after several months: some progress over time but very limited
I assume you fall into the group in bolded point 2 considering what you wrote in bolded point 1?
Unfortunately, I know somebody in the same situation after several months: some progress over time but very limited
That is just terrible. I really hope mine comes back after a week or 2, it's only been like 3 days and I can't take it already.
In most of the cases, from what I read, people get it back relatively quickly but there are some people who do need several months unfortunately.
She was tested positive a long time ago and I am not sure you both had the same Covid variant so you need to be remain positive!
Massive concentration of cases in the (mostly) unvaccinated 16-25 group now but this population section is unlikely to get hospitalised on average.
The comparison of number of cases without putting the numbers of tests undertaken also restrict the value of the data provided... How many are tested? Who is tested? What is the average age of the tested person?
Given the success of the vaccination campaign and the easing of the lockdown (more social interactions...reopening of international travel that requires tests..), the number of cases is no longer the most interesting indicator.
The Covid was the opportunity to see the vast majority of the population does not how to analyse, understand and interpret data in a very careful and rigorous manner, which requires some skills, a form of intelligence and humility.
The population at risk is largely vaccinated so what would be interesting to see is the evolution of both the number of deaths and hospitalisations in the last weeks.
When I see this picture, I just believe life should go on...
Tells us that mass testing is a mistake. Rather all testing resources should be concentrated on the vulnerable groups, not on for example teenagers. You can do some random ones too for genetic analysis. Even the deaths are with Covid as opposed to from it. Need the expected deaths numbers to see if any significance.
Crucially though there is probably seasonality, it's no surprise cases can be high but hospitals empty and deaths low in the summer. In fact more cases in the summer might actually be a good thing if there is more immunity by winter.
It's reasonable to expect a winter wave, this winter and in all following ones. The evolution of SARS-CoV2 and how we manage those waves will be key. We can see in the data there are huge variances between different age and health groups. That must be taken in to account in how it's managed or it'll be lockdown again by end of January at the latest imo.
Would you prefer they all had to stay off?
The one who had contact needs to isolate. Should they develop symptoms then you get them tested. If they test positive then you've all had contact and all of you need to isolate. Seems simple enough to me.
I think they'd rather become negative.
I don't have a crystal ball.
I just say statistics without details and information about the context and the employed methodology have a limited meaning.
Unfortunately, an increase in the number of cases is the price to pay for an easing of the restrictions.
If there is a high increase in the number of deaths and hospitalisations, then we will have another lockdown.
Otherwise, the debate should be open.
No it's not simple enough is it. She's had to isolate 3 time's in two months despite taking two test's a week and it always being negative.
We were told the children would have to stay off school last March to protect the vulnerable and old. 33 million are protected now. People are going on holiday and to football games, but a child that has always had a negative can't attend school.
True and yeah at this point I don't even 'remember' my pre covid smelling capabilities, I suspect that I've now recovered to smelling most things fine albeit at lower intensity. Just gotten used to it now, but hope it does improve over time. I'll likely see an ENT soon.What I would give to smell shits even. I can't smell jack shite.
I've got 2 kids as well. They've had to isolate a few times too. It's a massive inconvenience, but I don't have any better ideas. If your child tests negative they still have to isolate because there is an incubation period to consider. Same goes for adults.
But say kids were treated differently and you were able to send them in after a negative test, who's going to teach them? Because the teachers are often having to isolate too when the class they teach gets sent home. I have friends who teach so I know this to be true. I also know how much grief they've been getting from parents who blame them for what is government policy.
Context and methodology of the ONS survey.
https://www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopula...onaviruscovid19infectionsurveypilot/2july2021
A national statistically weighted weekly sampling that balances regions, gender, age, ethnic background and relative deprivation. They test around 15,000 people per day to create the survey.
It is not directly related to the national testing system, but because it has followed a consistent model it's used to see national trends over time.
The headline data from the national system is here:
https://coronavirus.data.gov.uk/
Most of the raw data is also available for download in csv format.
They also publish detailed reports on the statistical analysis going on behind the headline numbers, those are here:
https://www.gov.uk/government/publi...ars-cov-2-variant-variant-of-concern-20201201
If you want to look at the current day by day modelling, you can work from the raw numbers oy you can go with the current best fit on the data which is case:hospitalisation ratio around 2% (with a delay of 10 days). However that's a massive fall in case:hospitalisation ratio compared to the end of the winter wave (when it was 8%) and is mostly down to vaccination in older adults and case growth amongst young adults. However that suggests that hospitalisations will hit 1000/day before case rates fall (which we're hoping they will do due to vaccination and school holidays). It's changing by the day though and the calculations of vaccine v virus are not straightforward.
Sometimes, information overload isn't particularly useful in a tweet or a post.
Something better needs to be done. They can't go back in September and have another year like this. It will be a massive disadvantage for them in the future.
Doesn't the calculation require a more complex form of algebraic reasoning? Almost akin to compound interest?
If 100 people each has a 5% level of risk (950/1000) that doesn't equate to 50% "group risk" (as you would get if you multiplied the decimal value by the principal/number of people present) or even necessarily 5% personal risk. In other words, surely it moves exponentially in the inverse direction? We don't just multiply personal risk by the number of persons in a group to arrive at an answer or probability. Maybe someone better at math can help here.
https://www.wikihow.com/Calculate-Relative-Risk
Or just use above ^
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My dad is 73, smokes, and doesn't really take care of himself. He has been double-dosed with Astrazeneca.
4 days ago he came down with what seemed to be a heavy flu, accompanied by a chest/lung infection. He has these awful coughing fits every few minutes.
He has taken two lateral flow tests, 2 days apart. Both came back negative.
He went to the doctor who said that there is infection in his lungs, prescribed antibiotics and advised a PCR test for covid.
When my dad said he'd already taken two lateral flow tests, the doctor 'gritted his teeth' and said he really needed a PCR.
Just wondering if anybody can advise about this, are the lateral flow tests not reliable enough? Is there a possibility that despite having two negative results with LF, he's actually positive for Covid-19?
4 days ago he came down with what seemed to be a heavy flu, accompanied by a chest/lung infection. He has these awful coughing fits every few minutes.
He has taken two lateral flow tests, 2 days apart. Both came back negative.
He went to the doctor who said that there is infection in his lungs, prescribed antibiotics and advised a PCR test for covid.
When my dad said he'd already taken two lateral flow tests, the doctor 'gritted his teeth' and said he really needed a PCR.
Just wondering if anybody can advise about this, are the lateral flow tests not reliable enough? Is there a possibility that despite having two negative results with LF, he's actually positive for Covid-19?
Could be, the turnaround is quick (12-24hrs) so I'd suggest getting one booked for him to put your mind at ease.
Thank you, he actually took the PCR test this morning. Hopefully we'll hear something back before long.
I'm also concerned if it's not covid, that his infernal cough is the start of some other nasty like lung cancer or COPD from a lifetime of smoking. Then again, I guess the doctor would likely have flagged that when listening to his lungs.
Yep. LFTs are really for people who don't think they're ill, your dad is ill. PCRs are more sensitive to the virus, so can spot it earlier and later and can usually spot it even when the sample taking technique hasn't been that great.
That's great, thanks. I did read that one of the biggest issues with LFTs is untrained users not doing a very good job of obtaining the sample.
@Pogue Mahone and other doctors
Is there a counterargument to people posting this: https://journals.lww.com/americanth...in_for_prevention_and_treatment_of.98040.aspx supporting the Joe Rogan argument about Ivermectin?
Is there a counterargument to people posting this: https://journals.lww.com/americanth...in_for_prevention_and_treatment_of.98040.aspx supporting the Joe Rogan argument about Ivermectin?
Haha. When it comes to bad smells, bin lorries would be an upgrade on my current job.
Bloody hell. It is a weird one. Good to not have to smell shit but then like you said it’s quite important in general to be able to smell shit. Have you tried retraining your sense of smell? Apparently that’s what you have to do.
I’m now in my last day of the 10 in isolation. Have zero taste or smell. I do hope this isn’t long term. Meant to be going for a pint or three tomorrow and not sure what the point is 
Sorry to read about all you folks who either have Covid or still have symptoms. Get well soon. x
I have been taking LFT every few days for a while now and I’m yet to get a positive result. I’m either doing it wrong, really lucky or got a box of duff kits.
Guy at work had Covid just after Christmas and the poor fecker still can’t taste anything.I’m now in my last day of the 10 in isolation. Have zero taste or smell. I do hope this isn’t long term. Meant to be going for a pint or three tomorrow and not sure what the point is
Hmm, do you have any reason to expect a positive result?
I am quite worried about it. Such a normal thing to take for granted, can’t imagine what your man feels like.
Is a prophylactic so it definitely won't work if you're already in the ICU. This is in line with all the early data I saw over a year ago.
There was a suggestion a couple of months ago, I believe from PHE, that the Delta variant may be more severe and carry an increased risk of hospitalisation. Has there been any data to back this up?
I have been going into the office a fair bit and as much as you try and follow the guidance it just ain’t happening in an office environment especially when you have over a thousand people onsite.
I was away for a few days earlier this week at a wedding so that will be the real test, I have
given out some of the test kits to a few of the families who were at the wedding as well so it will be interesting to see what the outcome is.
That PHE data is the only I’ve seen. Think they worked it out as 50% more likely to hospitalise someone than alpha.