SARS CoV-2 coronavirus / Covid-19 (No tin foil hat silliness please)

[Pogue Mahone]

Is there much info on re-infection? People who have had covid before, and getting it again...

Is it less severe? And I mean with evidence not theory.

PS I'm going with a final circuit breaker lockdown in September

Yes. Reinfection generally less severe. Like everything in medicine though. There’s no absolutes. There are anecdotal reports of more severe symptoms the second time round. The other big trend is that the more severe the first infection the better the protection you have afterwards.

When it comes to reinfection, the variants are a bit of a cnut. The protection you get from an “original covid” infection isn’t great against some of the variants. This was a big issue in Brazil (and possibly India?) where a huge first wave of original covid should have given more protection to the population than it did.

 

[Wibble]

The Delta variant is a nasty one. Only the second jab offers good protection.
Strategy the first half of the year was to get everyone the first jab as fast as possible and now they want to speed up the second.
Especially as vaccines are not as scarce in Europe as before. Thanks to the Americans for that, as a lot of them are vaccine sceptics, unused/unwanted Moderna vaccines are made availabe to Europe/Buyers.

In the Sydney outbreak we had a Delta super spreader event. Of 31 people at a party 24 have tested positive and 7 negative (not just asymptomatic or not getting severe covid). The 24 hadn't been vaccinated and the 7 had, with most only having their first shot. Just one event but hopefully it suggests the benefit of even a single AZ shot is higher than the lowest figure reported which I think is 33%.

Delta is certainly more infectious as we are having transmission from the most fleeting of contacts even outside and schools/kids seem to be harder hit than before.

 

[hmchan]

I think you're mischaracterizing things a bit. The phase 3 trial results from Brazil were published in Lancet. Other results have come from the Chilean government, including the ones quoted above (which should have indicated source better).

Since the trials the levels of efficacy have shown to be lower than the vaccines used in the US and Europe. But back in January for a country like Brazil it was a choice between Sinovac or nothing at all. Only starting in June were AZ vaccines the most used in Brazil, and will mainly be AZ+Pfizer from here on out.

There's not really a pro-China stance of note in South America. Attitudes range more from neutral to suspicious. Certainly the traditional developed countries are given more credibility, so for example a vaccine approved by the US FDA or EU/UK equivalent can be granted approval for use in Brazil without local trials, but not for the Chinese equivalent. In the case of Sinovac however the trials had been conducted locally under supervision of the Brazilian FDA.

Sinovac lacks credibility because they fail to conduct a proper phase 3 trial, and they will never get an approval from the US FDA in this way. Brazil is (part of) their phase 3 trial but the results are shocking, and I still don't see the data on Lancet. The numbers from the Chile government can be served as a reference, but again it's not a proper study and it's just another broken piece on the Internet.

I've emphasized over and over again, Sinovac is better than nothing and I fully understand why it is a promising option (or the only option) for less wealthy countries. I'm just stating that while these underperforming vaccines (and diagnostic kits) may be life-savers in the short term, they are the major obstacles in ending this pandemic in the long run.

 

[hmchan]

I'm not talking about effectiveness. It's about the blood clots. In my country, for all those under 40 years old who got the first AZ shot, their second shot is going to be the Pfizer one instead, because the AZ put some young males in the hospital with blood clots. (And it's not only in my country, many European countries took measures as well).

So, IF GIVEN THE CHANCE, just take another vaccine if you are a young man. If not, then just take the AZ of course. Chances are you will be Ok.



PS. In the last 2 weeks, Chile went from 60 thousand active cases, to 40 thousand active cases. ICU occupation also at it's lowest since early May. The situation starting to look better now that the majority of population had already their 2 shots. SINOVAC doesn't look too bad to me.

You cannot say for sure that Sinovac is safer than AZ though, because again there is no study to support its safety. It's also worth to note that most of Sinovac vaccines are used in less developed countries, where adverse events may not be systematically reported and investigated.

 

[George Owen]

You cannot say for sure that Sinovac is safer than AZ though, because again there is no study to support its safety. It's also worth to note that most of Sinovac vaccines are used in less developed countries, where adverse events may not be systematically reported and investigated.

Not in Chile. The vaccine is safe.

But you know, I think the bad reputation comes precisely because it's been mostly deployed in less developed countries with sometimes, not the best conditions to deal with this kind of pandemic.

Under the same conditions, who is to say the pfizer vaccine wouldn't have had a few dead doctors as well? Who knows the viral load these doctors were exposed to regularly?

China wants the world to start moving again so I don't doubt they are trying to provide a product that works. My white tea took 3 months to arrive from China ffs.

A third booster shot might be necesary, but if it comes updated for the other variants, I guess it will be worth it. But a pain in the ass. I hope I don't have to take another one after my second one in a week (Pfizer).

 

[Ecstatic]

I understand the symbolic meaning of the picture: our new master or ruler is the Covid.

An oppressive system flourishes when fear is generalised and human dehumanised.

The mask is the material representation of the fear illustrating the idea that our life is dictated by the disease, and no longer by our inner needs.

There is nothing controversial in this tweet but just find her pedantic when she writes "blocked at my discretion"...

 

[Wibble]

There is nothing controversial in this tweet but just find her pedantic when she writes "blocked at my discretion"...

Unless you find her stupidity controversial. Likening an actual slave in chains and iron mask with people following health advice to help mitigate a pandemic is next level moronic.

 

[Ecstatic]

Likening an actual slave in chains and iron mask with people following health advice to help mitigate a pandemic is next level moronic.

That is why, this picture is interesting because there are several forms of slavery:

• What you would call "actual slavery" on the left
• What I would call "symbolic slavery" on the right

I don't define slavery in a very restricted manner. For instance, I can be the slave of my passion, own ambition or the slave of an ideology (which can be good or bad). An addiction to something or someone can be also viewed as a form of slavery.

I am not somebody judgemental so I wouldn't call someone who likes or dislikes a picture a moron

 

[Massive Spanner]

https://www.thejournal.ie/cabinet-meeting-fully-vaccinated-indoor-dining-5480143-Jun2021/

Madness. NPHET have too much power. Imagine a pub owner having to check vaccination certs for everyone walking into their fecking establishment. I'm fine with a two week delay to indoor dining to get over 60's up to speed but that's just crazy.

 

[Pogue Mahone]

https://www.thejournal.ie/cabinet-meeting-fully-vaccinated-indoor-dining-5480143-Jun2021/

Madness. NPHET have too much power. Imagine a pub owner having to check vaccination certs for everyone walking into their fecking establishment. I'm fine with a two week delay to indoor dining to get over 60's up to speed but that's just crazy.

Lots of pub/restaurant owners would prefer that to not allowing anyone in at all. It’s worked in other countries so why not here? I’ve never understood the pushback on “vaccine passports”. It seems absolutely nuts to prefer nobody spending money where it’s desperately needed unless everybody can.

 

[Massive Spanner]

Lots of pub/restaurant owners would prefer that to not allowing anyone in at all. It’s worked in other countries so why not here? I’ve never understood the pushback on “vaccine passports”. It seems absolutely nuts to prefer nobody spending money where it’s desperately needed unless everybody can.

But why are we not allowing everyone in? You said yourself the delay would be to get over 60's vaccinated so if they are then what exactly is the problem? Indoor dining doesn't appear to be a problem in almost every other European country with vaccination rates similar to ours.

 

[Pogue Mahone]

But why are we not allowing everyone in? You said yourself the delay would be to get over 60's vaccinated so if they are then what exactly is the problem? Indoor dining doesn't appear to be a problem in almost every other European country with vaccination rates similar to ours.

Uk is ahead of us in vaccine roll-out and going through exponential growth, with hospital admissions now starting to follow the increase in cases. They could be in deep shit over the next month or two. With much more back and forth travel between the two countries than the Uk and any other EU country you can see what the concern is.

 

[Massive Spanner]

Uk is ahead of us in vaccine roll-out and going through exponential growth, with hospital admissions now starting to follow the increase in cases. They could be in deep shit over the next month or two. With much more back and forth travel between the two countries than the Uk and any other EU country you can see what the concern is.

The delta variant is already in most European countries though isn't it?

I'm curious as to what the solution is, if by 2 weeks we have almost most over 40's fully vaccinated yet still have these sort of restrictions, where do we go? Do we just keep listening to NPHET and impose restrictions endlessly? What's the endgame?

And seriously, why are we lagging so far behind the rest of Europe, is that really justifiable?

 

[Pogue Mahone]

The delta variant is already in most European countries though isn't it?

I'm curious as to what the solution is, if by 2 weeks we have almost most over 40's fully vaccinated yet still have these sort of restrictions, where do we go? Do we just keep listening to NPHET and impose restrictions endlessly? What's the endgame?

And seriously, why are we lagging so far behind the rest of Europe, is that really justifiable?

I don’t know what the solution is either. I think NPHET are erring on the side of caution and I don’t think they’ll get their way. There’s going to be some sort of compromise. What’s going on right now is a media campaign to manage expectations. I hope hindsight eventually proves NPHET were being far too cautious. That wasn’t the case with the reopening at the end of last year but could be the case this time round.

And the way things got so badly out of hand, so quickly, in winter is the reason we’re not getting the same freedoms as other EU countries. I genuinely don’t know why this is but when we’re given those freedoms we seem to end up with dramatically worse outcomes. We went from the lowest cases per 100k in Europe to the highest, bar none. All in the space of a few weeks, with a much less infectious variant. That’s obviously a factor in the caution we’re seeing now.

 

[Massive Spanner]

I don’t know what the solution is either. I think NPHET are erring on the side of caution and I don’t think they’ll get their way. There’s going to be some sort of compromise. What’s going on right now is a media campaign to manage expectations. I hope hindsight eventually proves NPHET were being far too cautious. That wasn’t the case with the reopening at the end of last year but could be the case this time round.

And the way things got so badly out of hand, so quickly, in winter is the reason we’re not getting the same freedoms as other EU countries. I genuinely don’t know why this is but when we’re given those freedoms we seem to end up with dramatically worse outcomes. We went from the lowest cases per 100k in Europe to the highest, bar none. All in the space of a few weeks, with a much less infectious variant. That’s obviously a factor in the caution we’re seeing now.

Well, no shit, that's my entire point. Their models are mental:

NPHET presented some stark warnings to Government last night - the most severe of which predicted hundreds of thousands of cases between July and September and more than 2,000 deaths as a result of Covid-19.

And yet (repost)

53 people under the age of 44 have died from covid from March last year to May this year. 20 people have died under the age of 34.

The weird thing is that as we know the delta variant is more resistant to vaccines then it's the most vulnerable that are yet again most at risk yet they are the ones we are going to let dine indoors in this scenario, huh?

Not to mention Tony has a long history with absolutely hating the drinking culture in our country

EDIT: Oh, and supposedly there has been no independent review of NPHET's model which seems even more insane.

 

[Massive Spanner]

@Pogue Mahone far more sensible approach?

"Ministers will also consider whether the Government should just issue advice to unvaccinated people urging them not to dine indoors."

Basically leave it to pub/restaurant owners to keep unvaccinated people outside if there's space and inside if there isn't, let them use their own judgement etc. - surely the way to go here.

 

[Pogue Mahone]

Well, no shit, that's my entire point. Their models are mental:

And yet (repost)

The weird thing is that as we know the delta variant is more resistant to vaccines then it's the most vulnerable that are yet again most at risk yet they are the ones we are going to let dine indoors in this scenario, huh?

Not to mention Tony has a long history with absolutely hating the drinking culture in our country

EDIT: Oh, and supposedly there has been no independent review of NPHET's model which seems even more insane.

Not sure if you meant to link a different article but there’s nothing wrong with what he said there. As per the bit of my post you didn’t respond to, we completely lost the run of ourselves in December. An increase in cases that was much worse than any other European country. And we both know we’re a nation of piss-heads. So it’s not a massive fecking leap to wonder if these two things might have been related.

For ages Thailand was one of the best countries in the world at keeping cases down. They banned the sale of alcohol completely.

The weird thing is that as we know the delta variant is more resistant to vaccines then it's the most vulnerable that are yet again most at risk yet they are the ones we are going to let dine indoors in this scenario, huh?

Someone who is vaccinated (of any age) is a hell of a lot less likely to catch and spread the virus then someone who is not vaccinated. That’s the logic here. Obvious and simple.

 

[Pogue Mahone]

@Pogue Mahone far more sensible approach?

"Ministers will also consider whether the Government should just issue advice to unvaccinated people urging them not to dine indoors."

Basically leave it to pub/restaurant owners to keep unvaccinated people outside if there's space and inside if there isn't, let them use their own judgement etc. - surely the way to go here.

A few beers and a shower of rain is all it takes to make that completely unworkable. Just as well we’re not big drinkers and have a dry climate…

 

[Massive Spanner]

Not sure if you meant to link a different article but there’s nothing wrong with what he said there. As per the bit of my post you didn’t respond to, we completely lost the run of ourselves in December. An increase in cases that was much worse than any other European country. And we both know we’re a nation of piss-heads. So it’s not a massive fecking leap to wonder if these two things might be related.



Someone who is vaccinated (of any age) is a hell of a lot less likely to catch and spread the virus then someone who is not vaccinated. That’s the logic here. Obvious and simple.

What is there to respond to? Yes, we completely lost the run of ourselves. We went from being fully locked down to having everything open within the space of something like 2 or 3 weeks, it was always going to be a disaster. Also, we didn't have vaccines, we do now! It's a far cry from our current situation which is having a lot of society back open with the lowest ICU numbers and hospitalisations in a very long time, and, also, all the vulnerable people vaccinated. This isn't going from full restrictions to "EVERYONE DO WHAT THEY WANT", it's a phased reopening, the next step of which is to allow indoor dining! Surely you yourself can see the difference.

 

[Pogue Mahone]

What is there to respond to? Yes, we completely lost the run of ourselves. We went from being fully locked down to having everything open within the space of something like 2 or 3 weeks, it was always going to be a disaster. Also, we didn't have vaccines, we do now! It's a far cry from our current situation which is having a lot of society back open with the lowest ICU numbers and hospitalisations in a very long time, and, also, all the vulnerable people vaccinated. This isn't going from full restrictions to "EVERYONE DO WHAT THEY WANT", it's a phased reopening, the next step of which is to allow indoor dining! Surely you yourself can see the difference.

The shit show in December was part of a phased reopening too. Look it, I’m being devil’s (i.e. NPHET) advocate here. My personal preference is to push out indoor dining by a couple of weeks (a month, at most) then see how things go from there. Looks like we might be lowering the age for people getting AZ/J&J which will help. I do think we’ll have a rough couple of months after we allow people back into pubs. Just like we’re seeing in the UK. But the numbers in the press this morning are the absolute worst case scenarios. The same NPHET model also has best case scenarios which look absolutely fine. What’s going to happen will be somewhere between those two extremes.

 

[Massive Spanner]

The shit show in December was part of a phased reopening too. Look it, I’m being devil’s (i.e. NPHET) advocate here. My personal preference is to push out indoor dining by a couple of weeks (a month, at most) then see how things go from there. Looks like we might be lowering the age for people getting AZ/J&J which will help. I do think we’ll have a rough couple of months after we allow people back into pubs. Just like we’re seeing in the UK. But the numbers in the press this morning are the absolute worst case scenarios. The same NPHET model also has best case scenarios which look absolutely fine. What’s going to happen will be somewhere between those two extremes.

We both know it was nothing close to the level of a phased opening it currently is, let's not bend the narrative. Not to mention we had no vaccines and it was in the middle of winter as opposed to summer. The whole "meaningful Christmas" thing was a complete shambles. They are incomparable situations. We have kept easing restrictions yet cases, ICU numbers bla bla have remained steady/gone down, but apparently indoor dining is some massive outlier that will completely bollock everything up even though (as far as I'm aware) there is little evidence across Europe to support any of that.

Anyway, I doubt the government will go with it, they know there will be uproar. Delay by two weeks and some sort of system that tries to get restaurants to keep unvaccinated people outside when possible, without full enforcement, is the likely outcome.

 

[Foxbatt]

I saw in the news that EU has refused to include Covishield as a vaccine accepted for travel to eu. If so it's utterly ridiculous. Canada does accept Covishield but USA so far hasn't.

 

[Henrik Larsson]

Any chance someone on here can offer some insight on the supposed much faster transmission rate of the Delta variant? There have been some weird stories out there, like how for the original strains it was about 15 minutes of close contact that gives you a big chance of infection, and now there's talk about only 10-15 seconds (!) of close contact being enough. For example:

Queensland’s chief health officer, Dr Jeannette Young, echoed these statements on Wednesday when she announced the state would shut its borders to people from Sydney hotspots.

“With the Delta variant, we’re seeing very fleeting contact leading to transmission,” Young said.

“At the start of this pandemic, I spoke about 15 minutes of close contact being a concern. Now it looks like it’s five to 10 seconds that’s a concern. The risk is so much higher now than it was only a year ago.”

https://www.theguardian.com/austral...eed-to-know-about-sydneys-delta-covid-variant

In my country all the normally reliable experts are only going as far as saying 'it spreads faster' without making any claims about how much faster exactly, and the Delta variant is currently roughly 5-10% of infections. But if chief health officers from a developed country are making such statements it seems extremely alarming, or am I missing something here?


EDIT: after some searching I think it's the extremely short transmission time in a specific mutation of the (general) Delta variant, called K417N that's being referred to.

https://www.reuters.com/business/he...t-coronavirus-with-k417n-mutation-2021-06-23/

The variant, called "Delta Plus" in India, was first reported in a Public Health England bulletin on June 11.

It is a sub-lineage of the Delta variant first detected in India and has acquired the spike protein mutation called K417N which is also found in the Beta variant first identified in South Africa.

And some more:

"But, says Ravindra Gupta, professor of clinical microbiology at the Cambridge Institute for Therapeutic Immunology and Infectious Diseases who has been genetically sequencing SARS-CoV-2 and studying its genetic evolution, “I predict 417 is not an important enough mutation. Delta is bad enough as it is and I don’t think 417 will change [it] that much or become dominant.”

That’s because the 417 mutation isn’t new. Gupta says he has also found it in other major variants of the virus, including the B.1.1.7, or Alpha, variant, that was first identified in the U.K., and the B.1.351 or Beta variant first reported in South Africa. “We’ve seen it come up in a number of Alpha isolates and it didn’t take off or anything,” he says.''

https://time.com/6075858/delta-plus-variant/

 

[Sky1981]

@hmchan

Typical Western MSM

If you don’t read the whole article or can’t read it because of the paywall the message seems pretty grim. The headline seems to imply that doctors in Indonesia are dropping like flies, dying of covid despite being fully vaccinated with the Sinovac vaccine.

Can you imagine the outrage of some people reading this headline? “Chinese vaccines are useless.” “China is guilty of killing people by giving them a false sense of protection.” And the quintessential “Made in China, what do you expect?”

However, buried somewhere near the end of the article it says this:

Around 90% of Indonesian doctors—roughly 160,000 in all—have been vaccinated with Sinovac’s shot, according to the medical association, so the vaccinated doctors who died are only a tiny percentage of the total.

Data gathered by the medical association shows the death toll among doctors is down from the country’s last surge in December and January, when vaccinations had just begun and around 60 doctors died in each of the two months from Covid-19. So far in June, 26 doctors have died.

So….10 out of 160,000 vaccinated doctors died. And we don’t even know their underlying medical conditions.

This is just bad and irresponsible reporting. What are they trying to do here? Manufacturing doubts about the Chinese vaccine so that countries who can’t get the western vaccines delay vaccinations? While people keep dying and the chances of mutations keep increasing?

It boggles the mind. Just had to get this off my chest

 

[Wibble]

Any chance someone on here can offer some insight on the supposed much faster transmission rate of the Delta variant? There have been some weird stories out there, like how for the original strains it was about 15 minutes of close contact that gives you a big chance of infection, and now there's talk about only 10-15 seconds (!) of close contact being enough. For example:

Queensland’s chief health officer, Dr Jeannette Young, echoed these statements on Wednesday when she announced the state would shut its borders to people from Sydney hotspots.

“With the Delta variant, we’re seeing very fleeting contact leading to transmission,” Young said.

“At the start of this pandemic, I spoke about 15 minutes of close contact being a concern. Now it looks like it’s five to 10 seconds that’s a concern. The risk is so much higher now than it was only a year ago.”

https://www.theguardian.com/austral...eed-to-know-about-sydneys-delta-covid-variant

In my country all the normally reliable experts are only going as far as saying 'it spreads faster' without making any claims about how much faster exactly, and the Delta variant is currently roughly 5-10% of infections. But if chief health officers from a developed country are making such statements it seems extremely alarming, or am I missing something here?


EDIT: after some searching I think it's the extremely short transmission time in a specific mutation of the (general) Delta variant, called K417N that's being referred to.

https://www.reuters.com/business/he...t-coronavirus-with-k417n-mutation-2021-06-23/

The variant, called "Delta Plus" in India, was first reported in a Public Health England bulletin on June 11.

It is a sub-lineage of the Delta variant first detected in India and has acquired the spike protein mutation called K417N which is also found in the Beta variant first identified in South Africa.

And some more:

"But, says Ravindra Gupta, professor of clinical microbiology at the Cambridge Institute for Therapeutic Immunology and Infectious Diseases who has been genetically sequencing SARS-CoV-2 and studying its genetic evolution, “I predict 417 is not an important enough mutation. Delta is bad enough as it is and I don’t think 417 will change [it] that much or become dominant.”

That’s because the 417 mutation isn’t new. Gupta says he has also found it in other major variants of the virus, including the B.1.1.7, or Alpha, variant, that was first identified in the U.K., and the B.1.351 or Beta variant first reported in South Africa. “We’ve seen it come up in a number of Alpha isolates and it didn’t take off or anything,” he says.''

https://time.com/6075858/delta-plus-variant/

Part of that is that fleeting and even outdoor contact probably occurred even with the Alpha variant and we didn't know about it for sure. But from recent transmissions of delta here in Australia it is apparent that Delta is quite a bit more transmissible with confirmed cases of transmission from fleeting and outdoor contacts. Kids seem to be getting it more as well.

The good news is that the same measures as we have been using work well e.g. masks and distancing. And in one case of a super spreader event at a part in South Western Sydney 31 people were present. 24 caught coivd who weren't immunised. The 7 who had either their first shot or both shots tested negative. Not just reduced symptoms but were not infected at all. Only one event but it can't be bad news.

 

[Pexbo]

@hmchan

Typical Western MSM

If you don’t read the whole article or can’t read it because of the paywall the message seems pretty grim. The headline seems to imply that doctors in Indonesia are dropping like flies, dying of covid despite being fully vaccinated with the Sinovac vaccine.

Can you imagine the outrage of some people reading this headline? “Chinese vaccines are useless.” “China is guilty of killing people by giving them a false sense of protection.” And the quintessential “Made in China, what do you expect?”

However, buried somewhere near the end of the article it says this:




So….10 out of 160,000 vaccinated doctors died. And we don’t even know their underlying medical conditions.

This is just bad and irresponsible reporting. What are they trying to do here? Manufacturing doubts about the Chinese vaccine so that countries who can’t get the western vaccines delay vaccinations? While people keep dying and the chances of mutations keep increasing?

It boggles the mind. Just had to get this off my chest

Is this your first time meeting Rupert Murdoch?

 

[11101]

I saw in the news that EU has refused to include Covishield as a vaccine accepted for travel to eu. If so it's utterly ridiculous. Canada does accept Covishield but USA so far hasn't.

That should be quite easy to change. The vaccine itself has been through the approval process, all the manufacturer needs to do is get approval for their facilities in India.

 

[Massive Spanner]

https://www.thejournal.ie/factcheck...y-in-europe-no-indoor-dining-5480750-Jun2021/

Good lord we are a shambles.

Good thing NPHET know better than every other expert in Europe

 

[McGrathsipan]

https://www.thejournal.ie/factcheck...y-in-europe-no-indoor-dining-5480750-Jun2021/

Good lord we are a shambles.

Good thing NPHET know better than every other expert in Europe

Hitler Holohan is in charge.

Pubs will never be allowed to open again with him in charge of the country.
Its infuriating how weak Mehole Martin is

 

[Massive Spanner]

Hitler Holohan is in charge.

Pubs will never be allowed to open again with him in charge of the country.
Its infuriating how weak Mehole Martin is

It's a disgrace.

How is it ok for young workers to go work in the pubs and restaurants when they open but yet can't go in for a pint after?
How can they justify being the only country on the entire continent without indoor dining open, despite some of the lowest ICU's and hospitalisations and most of the vulnerable fully vaccinated?
How can they justify going ahead with this purely on NPHET"s advice without seeking 3rd party advice, despite NPHET being completely wrong on case numbers plenty of times?

We're a joke.

 

[Pogue Mahone]

It's a disgrace.

How is it ok for young workers to go work in the pubs and restaurants when they open but yet can't go in for a pint after?
How can they justify being the only country on the entire continent without indoor dining open, despite some of the lowest ICU's and hospitalisations and most of the vulnerable fully vaccinated?
How can they justify going ahead with this purely on NPHET"s advice without seeking 3rd party advice, despite NPHET being completely wrong on case numbers plenty of times?

We're a joke.

I’ve already answered some of those questions. The most obvious reason for being more cautious than the rest of Europe is the fact that we have a track record of cases escalating faster than the rest of Europe (by a wide margin) the last time indoor hospitality opened up.

Allowing vaccinated people into pubs/restaurants is a way to get indoor hospitality started quicker than it would otherwise. Which is obviously better than nobody eating/drinking indoors at all. It’s also already happening in some of these other EU countries you’re envious of.

I think they should find a way for all employees at these establishments to get vaccinated straight away. That would be the least they can do for an industry that’s having a shitty time. It might also help with staff retention. Which I know is a huge problem at the moment.

 

[Massive Spanner]

I’ve already answered some of those questions. The most obvious reason for being more cautious than the rest of Europe is the fact that we have a track record of cases escalating faster than the rest of Europe (by a wide margin) the last time indoor hospitality opened up.

Allowing vaccinated people into pubs/restaurants is a way to get indoor hospitality started quicker than it would otherwise. Which is obviously better than nobody eating/drinking indoors at all. It’s also already happening in some of these other EU countries you’re envious of.

I think they should find a way for all employees at these establishments to get vaccinated straight away. That would be the least they can do for an industry that’s having a shitty time. It might also help with staff retention. Which I know is a huge problem at the moment.

I don't know why you keep peddling that as an answer. I've already said that last time we opened indoor dining under completely different circumstances and then you just stopped responding. We would quite clearly be opening it under much, much better circumstances this time. We actually did it last summer and never had exponetial growth, and this time, we have all the vulnerable vaccinated!

 

[Pogue Mahone]

I don't know why you keep peddling that as an answer. I've already said that last time we opened indoor dining under completely different circumstances and then you just stopped responding. We would quite clearly be opening it under much, much better circumstances this time. We actually did it last summer and never had exponetial growth, and this time, we have all the vulnerable vaccinated!

How were the circumstances “completely different” the last time? As in, how were they different from the rest of Europe? Because that’s the only comparison I’m making. The last time we reopened hospitality our cases increased at a rate that was much much higher than every other country in Europe. From a starting point that was lower than almost all of them.

If we do a lot worse than our nearest neighbours this time around (who are substantially further down the road to full vaccination) then we’re in deep shit.

 

[Massive Spanner]

How were the circumstances “completely different” the last time? As in, how were they different from the rest of Europe? Because that’s the only comparison I’m making. The last time we reopened hospitality our cases increased at a rate that was much much higher than every other country in Europe. From a starting point that was lower than almost all of them.

If we do a lot worse than our nearest neighbours this time around (who are substantially further down the road to full vaccination) then we’re in deep shit.

Can you point me to how they were the exact same as the rest of Europe. I don't recall any other European countries going from full, six week lockdown to basically everything being opening remotely as quickly as we did, despite case numbers not really going down during that lockdown. Also, it was winter, Christmas is a massive thing here too and pretty much everyone was flying round the country, partying and staying with their families. It was a total shitshow. It's completely incomparable to now opening a single thing, indoor dining. Where is your proof that indoor dining is the big be all and end all that causes case numbers to fly up exactly? Do you have any? It doesn't seem to be doing it in every other European country.

Also, we've already opened up plenty of other areas that causes cases to go up the last times we exited lockdown, and cases haven't gone up, ICU numbers and hospitalisations have actually gone down!

Also, it's summer, and we have the fecking vaccines.

 

[Pogue Mahone]

Can you point me to how they were the exact same as the rest of Europe. I don't recall any other European countries going from full, six week lockdown to basically everything being opening remotely as quickly as we did, despite case numbers not really going down during that lockdown. Also, it was winter, Christmas is a massive thing here too and pretty much everyone was flying round the country, partying and staying with their families. It was a total shitshow.

It's completely incomparable to now opening a single thing, indoor dining. Where is your proof that indoor dining is the big be all and end all that causes case numbers to fly up exactly? Do you have any? It doesn't seem to be doing it in every other European country.

So you’ve got no reason for why the rest of Europe Ireland had a less rapid surge in December. Nothing you’ve mentioned there is unique to Ireland. Yet our surge was worse than any of them. And our starting point in terms of having low numbers prior to reopening was amongst the very best. Which is exactly my point.

I don’t know for certain if indoor dining/drinking is a much bigger problem for Ireland than the rest of Europe. But the evidence from the end of last year implies it is. And it’s not as though Ireland doesn’t have a reputation for being a bit too fond of hanging out in pubs.

Also, we've already opened up plenty of other areas that causes cases to go up the last times we exited lockdown, and cases haven't gone up, ICU numbers and hospitalisations have actually gone down!

Also, it's summer, and we have the fecking vaccines.

I know it’s summer. I know we have vaccines. The weather is better in the UK and they have a higher % vaccinated. They had 20k+ cases yesterday and they’re almost doubling week by week. That’s the obvious worry for us, combined with our track record of being able to inflate case numbers better than anyone.

I’m repeating myself now so should probably agree to disagree if you think I’m talking crap. I certainly don’t have all the answers. I don’t even think I agree with NPHET. I’m just explaining their rationale.

 

[FootballHQ]

I don’t know what the solution is either. I think NPHET are erring on the side of caution and I don’t think they’ll get their way. There’s going to be some sort of compromise. What’s going on right now is a media campaign to manage expectations. I hope hindsight eventually proves NPHET were being far too cautious. That wasn’t the case with the reopening at the end of last year but could be the case this time round.

And the way things got so badly out of hand, so quickly, in winter is the reason we’re not getting the same freedoms as other EU countries. I genuinely don’t know why this is but when we’re given those freedoms we seem to end up with dramatically worse outcomes. We went from the lowest cases per 100k in Europe to the highest, bar none. All in the space of a few weeks, with a much less infectious variant. That’s obviously a factor in the caution we’re seeing now.

What's your opinion on vaccinating under 18s Pogue?

Read the other day scientists were saying trying to get close to some sort of HIT for delta variant was unrealistic without majority of kids from 12 up getting jabbed at some point in next two months.

That's why it's a bit stupid from Javid to be as bullish as he is about everything unlocking on July 19th as then people will just think no one will ever get ill from covid again despite potentially 10m kids acting as spreaders during the holidays.

We'll probably never know for sure but surely played a part in the superspread that started to significantly increase from September 2020.

 

[Massive Spanner]

So you’ve got no reason for why the rest of Europe Ireland had a less rapid surge in December. Nothing you’ve mentioned there is unique to Ireland. Yet our surge was worse than any of them. And our starting point in terms of having low numbers prior to reopening was amongst the very best. Which is exactly my point.

I don’t know for certain if indoor dining/drinking is a much bigger problem for Ireland than the rest of Europe. But the evidence from the end of last year implies it is. And it’s not as though Ireland doesn’t have a reputation for being a bit too fond of hanging out in pubs.


I know it’s summer. I know we have vaccines. The weather is better in the UK and they have a higher % vaccinated. They had 20k+ cases yesterday and they’re almost doubling week by week. That’s the obvious worry for us, combined with our track record of being able to inflate case numbers better than anyone.

I’m repeating myself now so should probably agree to disagree if you think I’m talking crap. I certainly don’t have all the answers. I don’t even think I agree with NPHET. I’m just explaining their rationale.

I don't know what the rest of Europe did though, do you? Did any of them open to the same extent we did? Either way it's going on speculation to say that because we had such a bad rise in winter under totally different circumstances to this, we will experience that surge again, that's my point here.

NPHET have a sole purpose; keep deaths at an absolute minimum and keep the health service from being overwhelmed. They have no obligation to manage finances, get people back to work or try to manage Covid as opposed to completely shutting it down. That's the problem, they will do everything in their power to achieve their goals despite the consequences to other aspects of society. It's not them I blame, they're doing their job, it's our spineless government who will obey their every whim and not seek independent advice (which is madness).

 

[hmchan]

@hmchan

Typical Western MSM

If you don’t read the whole article or can’t read it because of the paywall the message seems pretty grim. The headline seems to imply that doctors in Indonesia are dropping like flies, dying of covid despite being fully vaccinated with the Sinovac vaccine.

Can you imagine the outrage of some people reading this headline? “Chinese vaccines are useless.” “China is guilty of killing people by giving them a false sense of protection.” And the quintessential “Made in China, what do you expect?”

However, buried somewhere near the end of the article it says this:




So….10 out of 160,000 vaccinated doctors died. And we don’t even know their underlying medical conditions.

This is just bad and irresponsible reporting. What are they trying to do here? Manufacturing doubts about the Chinese vaccine so that countries who can’t get the western vaccines delay vaccinations? While people keep dying and the chances of mutations keep increasing?

It boggles the mind. Just had to get this off my chest

That's why the first thing university teaches is that mass media are unreliable sources. Only studies published in peer-reviewed journals could be cited as references which, again, Sinovac has failed to perform.

 

[jojojo]

Scotland's cases rise again and here's part of this week's briefing from Public Health Scotland.

 

[golden_blunder]

https://www.rte.ie/sport/euro-2020/...0-covid-infected-scots-attended-euros-events/

Well who knew?