SARS CoV-2 coronavirus / Covid-19 (No tin foil hat silliness please)



@Massive Spanner

Good thread on the model behind the recent concerns about delta variant. Now these things aren’t always correct but they’re the best method we have to try and predict the future of this pandemic. And they do take into account the stuff you mentioned before about it being summer and people vaccinated. Still produces some fairly grim scenarios.
 
Sky1981 said:
@hmchan

Typical Western MSM

main-qimg-6525e0d3f399d4b02df22a3b1ec7f4d7



If you don’t read the whole article or can’t read it because of the paywall the message seems pretty grim. The headline seems to imply that doctors in Indonesia are dropping like flies, dying of covid despite being fully vaccinated with the Sinovac vaccine.

Can you imagine the outrage of some people reading this headline? “Chinese vaccines are useless.” “China is guilty of killing people by giving them a false sense of protection.” And the quintessential “Made in China, what do you expect?”

However, buried somewhere near the end of the article it says this:




So….10 out of 160,000 vaccinated doctors died. And we don’t even know their underlying medical conditions.

This is just bad and irresponsible reporting. What are they trying to do here? Manufacturing doubts about the Chinese vaccine so that countries who can’t get the western vaccines delay vaccinations? While people keep dying and the chances of mutations keep increasing?

It boggles the mind. Just had to get this off my chest
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The key message suggested in the title is that around 40% of the doctors who died were vaccinated.

They didn't suggest all the vaccinated doctors died but rather wanted to convey the message that somebody vaccinated can die.

Do you mean the title is not accurate and misleading? If yes, why?
 
Pogue Mahone said:


@Massive Spanner

Good thread on the model behind the recent concerns about delta variant. Now these things aren’t always correct but they’re the best method we have to try and predict the future of this pandemic. And they do take into account the stuff you mentioned before about it being summer and people vaccinated. Still produces some fairly grim scenarios.
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Mainland Europe already has the delta variant in circulation. If their models are right, it sounds like all those countries who opened up way before us are totally fecked, time will tell whether we were the dopes or they were.
 
Massive Spanner said:
Mainland Europe already has the delta variant in circulation. If their models are right, it sounds like all those countries who opened up way before us are totally fecked, time will tell whether we were the dopes or they were.
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They have it in circulation but it’s already our dominant strain. Courtesy of our leaky border with the UK. Same reason we were the first non-UK country to get hammered by Kent variant.
 
Anyone know how accurate the rapid antigen home kits are? I've tested negative twice (over two days). But I've got a persistent cough that hurts my chest and I'm feeling achey all over my body. Felt like this since Monday.

I've done a PCR test and should get the results tomorrow. I had my first dose of Pfizer a week ago. Rotten luck if I've got covid.
 
Holocene said:
Anyone know how accurate the rapid antigen home kits are? I've tested negative twice (over two days). But I've got a persistent cough that hurts my chest and I'm feeling achey all over my body. Felt like this since Monday.

I've done a PCR test and should get the results tomorrow. I had my first dose of Pfizer a week ago. Rotten luck if I've got covid.
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False positives are rare.

False negatives can be high - its controversial, it varies on who's doing it - some studies suggest that general public doing self-testing have higher chance of false negative compared to a health professional. Also said to depend on viral load. If you've tested negative twice, and seems like you took the test quickly after symptom onset it likely that its not covid but you did the correct thing in arranging PCR.

I'd contact GP regarding your chest pain though. Or 111 even. Especially if you get breathless or feel dizzy at any point. If you want to wait for PCR test then fine but even if can't wait dont hesitant to get medical advice if you feel more unwell.

Hope its negative anyway and feel better soon.
 
Had the old covid .. just the one vaccination so far.
Few observations…..

seemed like hayfever at first. All of the same symptoms except had an added cough. Took an allergy pill and when the cough didn’t go I knew I had it and I knew exactly where I caught it from.

Did five home tests (rapid antigen tests), three were positive, two negative. So really conclusive and helped a lot……..
Anyway ignored that shit and Did the PCR and positive. Isolated.
Had a cough and blocked nose for about two days then the cough went and that was it really BUT feck me ive been nasally ever since. It’s been two weeks and I’m still nasally and it’s a bit annoying. I now permanently sound like I have a blocked nose but it’s not actually blocked. It’s really weird. I also can’t smell certain things.

Gonna elaborate. I can’t smell shitty smells. Being at home for ten days, levels of self hygiene wasn’t attended to as frequently but I noticed I never smelt bad. That didn’t add up. Threw bins out and didn’t smell any of the crap.Can still smell nice things though.

Once I uploaded my result. The nhs covid app advised five people I was with to isolate, even though I’d seen them three days before I even had symptoms. Seems very flawed and a bit too risk adverse. I don’t understand it’s logic.
 
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Leroy The Red said:
Had the old covid .. just the one vaccination so far.
Few observations…..

seemed like hayfever at first. All of the same symptoms except had an added cough. Took an allergy pill and when the cough didn’t go I knew I had it and I knew exactly where I caught it from.

Did five home tests (rapid antigen tests), three were positive, two negative. So really conclusive and helped a lot……..
Anyway ignored that shit and Did the PCR and positive. Isolated.
Had a cough and blocked nose for about two days then the cough went and that was it really BUT feck me ive been nasally ever since. It’s been two weeks and I’m still nasally and it’s a bit annoying. I now permanently sound like I have a blocked nose but it’s not actually blocked. It’s really weird. I also can’t smell certain things.

Gonna elaborate. I can’t smell shitty smells. Being at home for ten days, levels of self hygiene wasn’t attended to as frequently but I noticed I never smelt bad. That didn’t add up. Threw bins out and didn’t smell any of the crap.Can still smell nice things though.

Once I uploaded my result. The nhs covid app advised five people I was with to isolate, even though I’d seen them three days before I even had symptoms. Seems very flawed and a bit too risk adverse. I don’t understand it’s logic.
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Like I've always said, rapid antigen tests are just for fun. Not sure why people still think they can be incorporated into policy making.
 
Leroy The Red said:
Once I uploaded my result. The nhs covid app advised five people I was with to isolate, even though I’d seen them three days before I even had symptoms. Seems very flawed and a bit too risk adverse. I don’t understand it’s logic.
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You can be, and probably usually are, infectious before symptoms arise. And I'd guess that simply because you think you know where you caught it from they can't custom adjust isolation advice as many times this assumption will be wrong (even if correct in your case).
 
hmchan said:
Like I've always said, rapid antigen tests are just for fun. Not sure why people still think they can be incorporated into policy making.
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Yuh, doesn’t seem the most reliable bit of kit. Heard a few too many others with similar tales.
Wibble said:
You can be, and probably usually are, infectious before symptoms arise. And I'd guess that simply because you think you know where you caught it from they can't custom adjust isolation advice as many times this assumption will be wrong (even if correct in your case).
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True. Although interestingly none of the people I was around before I had symptoms got infected despite spending an entire day watching football with some of them. And that was within two days of going to the place where I was infected (it’s the only place I went that week as That was a week I wfh)
I feel the app is a bit of a mess. I can see it’s definitely helped a lot but also doesn’t really take into account the data you input and instead just plays it ridiculously safe.
 
Probably unrelated but my nearly 2 year old had a consistent 39+ temp yesterday and also vomited for the first time which freaked him out. Our local walk in was backed up for several hours so we decided to go to Alder Hey where we have been in and out in 40 mins in the past.

When we got there 53 kids were in the queue in front of us, most of them also with fevers. We waited 7.30pm till 1.15am then gave up as there were still 18 ahead in the queue + emergency admissions.

Got up and rung my GP this morning, both doctors are off…with COVID.
 
Leroy The Red said:
Yuh, doesn’t seem the most reliable bit of kit. Heard a few too many others with similar tales.


True. Although interestingly none of the people I was around before I had symptoms got infected despite spending an entire day watching football with some of them. And that was within two days of going to the place where I was infected (it’s the only place I went that week as That was a week I wfh)
I feel the app is a bit of a mess. I can see it’s definitely helped a lot but also doesn’t really take into account the data you input and instead just plays it ridiculously safe.
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One of the complications with Delta is that people catching it are reporting a different symptom set to before. It feels more like hayfever or a bit of a cold to most people - with headache/sniffles more common than cough/fever. For some of them the cough/fever kick in a couple of days later (if at all) and the breathlessness etc a couple of days after that (if at all).

It's always looked like people are at their most infective on the day they start showing symptoms (and highly infective a couple of days either side). Now, not unreasonably, a lot of people might ignore the first day or so of symptoms as hayfever - and just think they should pick up some antihistamine next time they're in the supermarket.

At any rate, the app playing it safe in terms of starting the countdown early isn't unreasonable.

In terms of who gets infected there is a massive amount of luck involved but a couple of open windows or even draughty doors can matter more than seems reasonable.
 
Leroy The Red said:
I feel the app is a bit of a mess. I can see it’s definitely helped a lot but also doesn’t really take into account the data you input and instead just plays it ridiculously safe.
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The worst thing about the app is there’s no process to check out of places after you’ve check in.

Have a look in your venue history; say you go somewhere for lunch, you check in at 12:30 and you’re there an hour, but if you don’t go anywhere else that day where you need to check in, the covid app records that you were at that place until midnight.
 
Ady87 said:
Probably unrelated but my nearly 2 year old had a consistent 39+ temp yesterday and also vomited for the first time which freaked him out. Our local walk in was backed up for several hours so we decided to go to Alder Hey where we have been in and out in 40 mins in the past.

When we got there 53 kids were in the queue in front of us, most of them also with fevers. We waited 7.30pm till 1.15am then gave up as there were still 18 ahead in the queue + emergency admissions.

Got up and rung my GP this morning, both doctors are off…with COVID.
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Arr that's tough, hope she/he is feeling better already and the temperature is down again. My niece came down with a heavy fever + cold pretty much exactly 3 days after the school allowed the kids to take off the masks in the classroom, and I hear loads of her friends have the same (negative covid tests though).
 
The average person is properly stupid.

In the office today. I’m reasonably young and averagely healthy. No concerns. But when I come into my office once a week I take a Lateral Flow test an hour before cycling in. I wear a sealed medical mask when I go to the toilet.

Why? Because it’s me trying to look after others. I’ve had two doses of Pfizer. But science hasn’t told me with certainty that I can’t be the guy that carries Covid into a space I share with others. It’s close to zero effort and such little impact on me to act as I do.

But the amount of people that challenge me on wearing a damn mask to take a shit as if I’m wearing it on THEIR face. It’s crazy. Obviously I don’t like wearing a mask. Of course I think it’s going beyond what’s necessary to self-test before travel. But equally, why the Fcuk do people make it their business?
 
UnrelatedPsuedo said:
The average person is properly stupid.

In the office today. I’m reasonably young and averagely healthy. No concerns. But when I come into my office once a week I take a Lateral Flow test an hour before cycling in. I wear a sealed medical mask when I go to the toilet.

Why? Because it’s me trying to look after others. I’ve had two doses of Pfizer. But science hasn’t told me with certainty that I can’t be the guy that carries Covid into a space I share with others. It’s close to zero effort and such little impact on me to act as I do.

But the amount of people that challenge me on wearing a damn mask to take a shit as if I’m wearing it on THEIR face. It’s crazy. Obviously I don’t like wearing a mask. Of course I think it’s going beyond what’s necessary to self-test before travel. But equally, why the Fcuk do people make it their business?
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To be fair, I can see why people object to the idea that wearing a sealed medical mask to the toilet is necessary. It looks almost certain that covid will never go away and vaccines will never be 100% effective. Which raises the possibility that - if we follow your logic - everyone should always do what you’re doing now. Forever. And that’s a grim thought, which will upset a lot of people.

Obviously, acting on that thought and confronting/challenging you is a dick move.
 
Wolverine said:
False positives are rare.

False negatives can be high - its controversial, it varies on who's doing it - some studies suggest that general public doing self-testing have higher chance of false negative compared to a health professional. Also said to depend on viral load. If you've tested negative twice, and seems like you took the test quickly after symptom onset it likely that its not covid but you did the correct thing in arranging PCR.

I'd contact GP regarding your chest pain though. Or 111 even. Especially if you get breathless or feel dizzy at any point. If you want to wait for PCR test then fine but even if can't wait dont hesitant to get medical advice if you feel more unwell.

Hope its negative anyway and feel better soon.
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Thanks for the reply.

I got my PCR results this morning and I tested positive for Covid. Which makes sense given the way I've been feeling.

My chest is actually feeling better today but now I have a sore throat that makes swallowing difficult.

I will definitely call 111 if my symptoms get worse. I've also bought an oximeter to measure my oxygen levels. I had pneumonia twice as a child so I really need to be careful.
 
UnrelatedPsuedo said:
The average person is properly stupid.

In the office today. I’m reasonably young and averagely healthy. No concerns. But when I come into my office once a week I take a Lateral Flow test an hour before cycling in. I wear a sealed medical mask when I go to the toilet.

Why? Because it’s me trying to look after others. I’ve had two doses of Pfizer. But science hasn’t told me with certainty that I can’t be the guy that carries Covid into a space I share with others. It’s close to zero effort and such little impact on me to act as I do.

But the amount of people that challenge me on wearing a damn mask to take a shit as if I’m wearing it on THEIR face. It’s crazy. Obviously I don’t like wearing a mask. Of course I think it’s going beyond what’s necessary to self-test before travel. But equally, why the Fcuk do people make it their business?
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I still see people walk out of public toilets without washing their hands.

Humanity is fecked.
 
Pogue Mahone said:
To be fair, I can see why people object to the idea that wearing a sealed medical mask to the toilet is necessary. It looks almost certain that covid will never go away and vaccines will never be 100% effective. Which raises the possibility that - if we follow your logic - everyone should always do what you’re doing now. Forever. And that’s a grim thought, which will upset a lot of people.

Obviously, acting on that thought and confronting/challenging you is a dick move.
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Honestly mate, I get it too. But I really don’t see any difference in a cloth face covering and an FFP3 (without the back of the head hook). It’s took elastic hooks behind your ears. Building policy says we should mask up in communal spaces… I do.

My point is : I don’t care that everyone else doesn’t. No comment. No anger. Doesn’t register. But I’ve decided to act in a way that potentially helps others without hindering anyone. To talk about it is so banal. One fella did it with his flies undone on his jeans. Mate, you’re only just keeping the mouse in the house, pipe down.
 
@Pogue Mahone hang on, I'm no Math expert but isn't this totally wrong? 95% vaccine effectiveness doesn't mean 5% of people who are vaccinated are vulnerable :lol:



Our wonderful experts at NPHET.
 
horsechoker said:
You'd think people would at least want to wash their hands after the outbreak of a pandemic and the general disgustingness of public bathrooms but no.
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My immigrant girlfriend/partner/goddess has a half serious point that runs along the lines of “Country that has the worst public bathrooms and overall hygiene levels in the developed world has highest death toll. Shocker”.
 
So my daughter had to isolate for 10 days. (second time in two months) she went back to school on Monday, now someone else in her year has tested positive and now she has another 10 days off.

The whole school year has pretty much been wrote off, and half of the last school year. This needs to end now. If you work and have kids your screwed, but it's okay you can go to Spain on holiday Feck the kids.
 
Massive Spanner said:
@Pogue Mahone hang on, I'm no Math expert but isn't this totally wrong? 95% vaccine effectiveness doesn't mean 5% of people who are vaccinated are vulnerable :lol:



Our wonderful experts at NPHET.
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If anything that’s an underestimation. Because it’s assuming 100% of people over 70 have been vaccinated. Which isn’t the case. The latest figure I’ve seen is around 95% vaccinated in those age groups. So that’s 25000 that didn’t get any vaccine at all. So quibbling about efficacy % becomes irrelevant.
 
Pogue Mahone said:
If anything that’s an underestimation. Because it’s assuming 100% of people over 70 have been vaccinated. Which isn’t the case. The latest figure I’ve seen is around 95% vaccinated in those age groups. So that’s 25000 that didn’t get any vaccine at all. So quibbling about efficacy % becomes irrelevant.
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Wasn't my point though, his logic is all wrong, you'd surely expect him to understand how vaccine efficiency works seeing as he's the 3rd highest up in NPHET. It doesn't take a genius to understand that an individual having 95% protection is not the same as 95% of individuals being protected.
 
Massive Spanner said:
Wasn't my point though, his logic is all wrong, you'd surely expect him to understand how vaccine efficiency works seeing as he's the 3rd highest up in NPHET. It doesn't take a genius to understand that an individual having 95% protection is not the same as 95% of individuals being protected.
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It’s basically the same thing. If you have 100 individuals, each 95% protected against severe illness, then you would expect 5% of them to get severe illness assuming they’re all exposed to the virus.

It’s that last bit where his logic falls apart but he doesn’t say that 25000 will get sick. Just that they’ll be vulnerable. A lot of the time you get people jumping all over “errors” from experts on twitter when all that’s happened is that they’ve tried to dumb tricky concepts down to make them easier to digest for the majority of readers.

At the end of the day, his point is essentially correct. Despite vaccinating (almost) all of our elderly, thousands of them can still get sick and die if case numbers get extremely high. Which is something that’s glossed over by people who like to think all our most vulnerable are definitely protected. There’s a big movement right now to try and claim we should ignore case numbers altogether with the elderly vaccinated. That’s an important point to argue against.
 
fergies coat said:
So my daughter had to isolate for 10 days. (second time in two months) she went back to school on Monday, now someone else in her year has tested positive and now she has another 10 days off.

The whole school year has pretty much been wrote off, and half of the last school year. This needs to end now. If you work and have kids your screwed, but it's okay you can go to Spain on holiday Feck the kids.
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Are you WFH? I feel like there should be a policy to allow parents to have more time off in case of these situations.

Admittedly I don't know the realities of how that could or couldn't work.
 
Vidyoyo said:
Are you WFH? I feel like there should be a policy to allow parents to have more time off in case of these situations.

Admittedly I don't know the realities of how that could or couldn't work.
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I'm self employed. If i don't work I don't get paid. There was parents dropping thier kids of at school to go to work, and being told at 8.30 in the morning that they need to isolate.

We were told back in March last year kids need to stay off school to protect the old and vulnerable. 33 million have had both doses, so why is this still happening? all the children lose out again.
 
If the government let off some restrictions it doesn't mean it's totally safe and you can just abandon your mask, rip of your shirt and support your football team in a 60k full capacity stadium (Looking at you Hungary).

Why does it have to be 100% safe or 100% not safe, why can't people just use common sense and play it safe (Health and mask protocol for a little more longer) social distancing, and not acting like a wild animal being let loose with all those over the top shenagigans (like rave party and shits like that)
 
fergies coat said:
I'm self employed. If i don't work I don't get paid. There was parents dropping thier kids of at school to go to work, and being told at 8.30 in the morning that they need to isolate.

We were told back in March last year kids need to stay off school to protect the old and vulnerable. 33 million have had both doses, so why is this still happening? all the children lose out again.
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It's a lack of respect and consideration when parents and citizens have to change their plans without notice.

I am of those who believe that schools should be open whatever the circumstances.
 
Sky1981 said:
If the government let off some restrictions it doesn't mean it's totally safe and you can just abandon your mask, rip of your shirt and support your football team in a 60k full capacity stadium (Looking at you Hungary).

Why does it have to be 100% safe or 100% not safe, why can't people just use common sense and play it safe (Health and mask protocol for a little more longer) social distancing, and not acting like a wild animal being let loose with all those over the top shenagigans (like rave party and shits like that)
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Because people are selfish and can't put limits on their behaviours. It's either complete lockdown or nothing it seems.
 
UnrelatedPsuedo said:
The average person is properly stupid.

In the office today. I’m reasonably young and averagely healthy. No concerns. But when I come into my office once a week I take a Lateral Flow test an hour before cycling in. I wear a sealed medical mask when I go to the toilet.

Why? Because it’s me trying to look after others. I’ve had two doses of Pfizer. But science hasn’t told me with certainty that I can’t be the guy that carries Covid into a space I share with others. It’s close to zero effort and such little impact on me to act as I do.

But the amount of people that challenge me on wearing a damn mask to take a shit as if I’m wearing it on THEIR face. It’s crazy. Obviously I don’t like wearing a mask. Of course I think it’s going beyond what’s necessary to self-test before travel. But equally, why the Fcuk do people make it their business?
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No offense intended but it looks like you work with average people who may find you "properly stupid" as you would say.

On a more serious note, I agree that people should respect your choice and stop to judge you.
 
Ecstatic said:
It's a lack of respect and consideration when parents and citizens have to change their plans without notice.

I am of those who believe that schools should be open whatever the circumstances.
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I've got 3 kids. They all live together and two share a bedroom, one of them has to isolate while the other two can go to school. How does this make any sense?
 
Rado_N said:
The worst thing about the app is there’s no process to check out of places after you’ve check in.

Have a look in your venue history; say you go somewhere for lunch, you check in at 12:30 and you’re there an hour, but if you don’t go anywhere else that day where you need to check in, the covid app records that you were at that place until midnight.
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Geez, wasn’t even aware of that or that you even had the venue history option.
 
Leroy The Red said:
Had the old covid .. just the one vaccination so far.
Few observations…..

seemed like hayfever at first. All of the same symptoms except had an added cough. Took an allergy pill and when the cough didn’t go I knew I had it and I knew exactly where I caught it from.

Did five home tests (rapid antigen tests), three were positive, two negative. So really conclusive and helped a lot……..
Anyway ignored that shit and Did the PCR and positive. Isolated.
Had a cough and blocked nose for about two days then the cough went and that was it really BUT feck me ive been nasally ever since. It’s been two weeks and I’m still nasally and it’s a bit annoying. I now permanently sound like I have a blocked nose but it’s not actually blocked. It’s really weird. I also can’t smell certain things.

Gonna elaborate. I can’t smell shitty smells. Being at home for ten days, levels of self hygiene wasn’t attended to as frequently but I noticed I never smelt bad. That didn’t add up. Threw bins out and didn’t smell any of the crap.Can still smell nice things though.

Once I uploaded my result. The nhs covid app advised five people I was with to isolate, even though I’d seen them three days before I even had symptoms. Seems very flawed and a bit too risk adverse. I don’t understand it’s logic.
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On the plus side you can always get work on the bin lorries
 
Holocene said:
Thanks for the reply.

I got my PCR results this morning and I tested positive for Covid. Which makes sense given the way I've been feeling.

My chest is actually feeling better today but now I have a sore throat that makes swallowing difficult.

I will definitely call 111 if my symptoms get worse. I've also bought an oximeter to measure my oxygen levels. I had pneumonia twice as a child so I really need to be careful.
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Good luck, hope you kick it soon
 
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