This is scarily reminiscent of “something weird is happening in Kent” concerns from autumn last year
All of her threads since start of pandemic have been pessimistic even when cases were falling
SARS CoV-2 coronavirus / Covid-19 (No tin foil hat silliness please)
- Thread starter Don't Kill Bill
- Start date
All of her threads since start of pandemic have been pessimistic even when cases were falling
Has she been wrong?
Was one of her previous “pessimistic” threads that annoyed you her prediction in early June that the delta variant meant the UK would see tens of thousands of cases every day by mid July?
After you're tested negatives on the PCR.
Normally it's 10 days minimum. But most of people would do 14 to be save.
If you can afford it and it's not a hassle on your nasal you can get tested everyday and once you're negative you're good to go.
X days minimum are just a guideline so you can have a rough estimation. But the clear line would be the test result.
Some remains positives longer than 10 days.
My wife wont take chances. She just did the 21 days and got tested on the 22nd just to be save.
Those pcr arent cheap here.
Sometimes yes, as every expert has. There’s definitely a niche in being overly optimistic and overly pessimistic that certain experts with social media presence have recognised is beneficial to their profile.
Who said I’m annoyed? What a ridiculous thing to get precious about
But we went from acceptance cases would rise to pretending to be aghast cases were rising
“precious “? What the feck are you on about now? I’m trying to understand what you mean by “pessimistic”. It seems to me you’ve mixed it up with the word “realistic”.
If you’ve actually followed Prof Pagel’s tweets you’ll have seen she was one of the first to focus on delta cases surging, while overall cases were falling. Which is how the UK ended up where it is now. The ability to see through larger trends and identify important underlying red flags is something we need more, not less of.
Obviously we all hope this surge of cases in the NE of England in older, vaccinated people is just some weird quirk of the data. But it’s definitely something that needs to be kept a very close eye on. Because this is exactly what the early signs of a new, vaccine resistant variant would look like. You’ll note that Prof Pagel didn’t specifically mention that possibility. Just asked if anyone had any ideas to explain what was going on. Which is not what you’d expect from someone who is being wilfully pessimistic.
@Pogue Mahone
Genuine question - If I say that she is overly optimistic, would you be happy with my understanding of things?
Genuine question - If I say that she is overly optimistic, would you be happy with my understanding of things?
Isn"t the UK overwhelmingly vaccinated with AZ?
@Pogue Mahone
Genuine question - If I say that she is overly optimistic, would you be happy with my understanding of things?
No idea what you mean. Sorry.
It is. And the PHE data published so far seems to show that AZ works well against the delta variant. Not as well as mRNA but well enough.
So I guess it remains to be seen if these new cases are in accordance with the expected efficacy of the AZ. But probably someone already did the numbers, I've not opened those tweets.
This is scarily reminiscent of “something weird is happening in Kent” concerns from autumn last year
Ah, feck. A new Geordie variant (hopefully called the pi variant).
If it's mainly affecting the over 30s, that could be bad news for people on the AZ vaccine.
This is scarily reminiscent of “something weird is happening in Kent” concerns from autumn last year
Im pretty sure the vaccination rate, in terms of percentage in the North East has been lower than other parts of the country.
Newcastle, currently the highest case rate per 100k, has a first dose rate of 68%.
Her commentary throughout this pandemic has always been a glass half empty though, so it does not surprise me that she’s picked up on this and not the more positive stories of hospitalisation stays being greatly reduced (both in admission and duration of stay). Thus a long term perspective of the health service being able to manage this better compared to previous waves.
Think it was just to go around smelling certain things for an extended period. Also heard of eating lots of chillies. And nah not a smoker..
So the Sunday papers are reporting that all restrictions will be lifted two weeks Monday in England.
Mask wearing gone.
All social distancing gone.
As much as I want things back to normal, this all seems very worrying with infection rates exploding again
Mask wearing gone.
All social distancing gone.
As much as I want things back to normal, this all seems very worrying with infection rates exploding again
That's just madness. While i realise we cant stay indoors forever, relaxation should be gradual. As soon as NL dropped the mask for everything but public transport, i'm one of the few that still wears one in the supermarket. I'm sure some people just think it's over and there is no longer a risk.
This will lead to another lockdown in October and Boris will be finished.So the Sunday papers are reporting that all restrictions will be lifted two weeks Monday in England.
Mask wearing gone.
All social distancing gone.
As much as I want things back to normal, this all seems very worrying with infection rates exploding again
More AZ than mRNA but not overwhelmingly so.:
https://www.gov.uk/government/publi...irus-vaccine-summary-of-yellow-card-reporting
Interesting , did not expect that proportion.
Population density possibly a factor? 72 people per square km versus UK with 278 people per square km.
The population density of Dublin is roughly the same as that of Manchester though, so who knows?
Worrying to hear Sajid Javid and Gavin Williamson recently about how letting go of all restrictions including mandatory mask wearing will make us "healthier"
In addition to scraping bubble systems in schools, isolation policies, no clear plans mentioned to get kids vaccinated despite MHRA approval and 9 in 10 parents in England surveyed saying they'd take up the offer for their kids to do so.
We're gearing up to be a variant-producing factory on this island.
What is worrying is lack of definitive plan to reduce the surge in cases. Talks about a break in link between cases to hospitalisations and deaths is fine, and while zero covid isn't a position most take here surely keeping cases down and reducing mutation chances is something that should be aspired to?
In addition to scraping bubble systems in schools, isolation policies, no clear plans mentioned to get kids vaccinated despite MHRA approval and 9 in 10 parents in England surveyed saying they'd take up the offer for their kids to do so.
We're gearing up to be a variant-producing factory on this island.
What is worrying is lack of definitive plan to reduce the surge in cases. Talks about a break in link between cases to hospitalisations and deaths is fine, and while zero covid isn't a position most take here surely keeping cases down and reducing mutation chances is something that should be aspired to?
They think the risk to their health is relatively low, lower than the risk of suffering severe consequences from getting the flu, which for the vaccinated population is an accurate assessment overall. The vaccine is a more effective measure than any practically plausible “non-pharmaceutical intervention” at this point. That was always the conditions under which these interventions were tolerated by enough people in society to make them workable. That was how it was positioned by the public health experts too; until we have a workable vaccine, these are the best measures we have
https://www.ecdc.europa.eu/en/publications-data/covid-19-guidelines-non-pharmaceutical-interventions
That isn’t the situation in the UK any more. The vaccines are here, they work, they work better than our best restrictions. Of course it doesn’t need to be one or the other but there are social and economic restrictions that the majority of the population won’t adhere to for the low levels of risk you’re talking about.
It’s not no risk but low risk. Most people are comfortable with low risk in daily life, and when they are in a direct trade-off vs. other vital aspects of life, that’s doubly true. More anxious people will feel that things are moving too quickly. That’s just an inevitable reality no matter when things normalise. Some people adapt to change slower than others, some people are losing out on more than others, etc. There is no way to make everyone happy.
Tory ideology versus facts, yet again.
So the Sunday papers are reporting that all restrictions will be lifted two weeks Monday in England.
Mask wearing gone.
All social distancing gone.
As much as I want things back to normal, this all seems very worrying with infection rates exploding again
Its absolutely insane. Nobody is really asking for it all in one go. Why not just keep relaxing measures for 3-5 months to gauge their impact.
I’d sure as hell keep masks on public transport for the rest of the year. It’s an acceptable hardship as we run into fuller services, return to offices and winter on the way.
It's the way Johnson and his mates keep saying relaxation will be 'irreversible' that annoys me. They have no idea what variants may arise and or how deadly they may be, but apparently that won't matter.
Hopefully with the scientific progress on vaccine production that's being made then in time we will learn to deal with new variants quite quickly, but to rule out more restrictions whilst we are doing so, in advance, is just plain stupid.
We will never, ever get to ‘the end’. This virus is here to stay and the sooner we accept that and stop trying to stop it, the better.
It’s the flu that we don’t fully understand yet and will just need to vaccinated against it (if you choose to).
Do you not think that people will just continue to do certain elements of the ‘distancing’ and/or self protection??
I for one will certainly carry a mask with me at all times and I am certainly on the side that thinks we ‘just need to move on from it’
I’ll don my masks at various times but especially on public transport.
So the Sunday papers are reporting that all restrictions will be lifted two weeks Monday in England.
Mask wearing gone.
All social distancing gone.
As much as I want things back to normal, this all seems very worrying with infection rates exploding again
Agreed and also dont get how currently there is that significant a burden on mental health. Restaurants and pubs are open.
They could find a way to get the Arts some much needed help by opening that sector up but keeping some measures in there.
Gradually alleviating things surely could have been achievable, financially viable rather than current policy of what sounds like encouraging suprespreader events en masse.
As far as the Uk coronavirus experience has gone, the glass half empty types have consistently been far more accurate with their predictions than the opposite extreme. It would be great if her concerns here buck that trend. Great but unlikely.
Many will. Many won’t. The kind of people that won’t wear a mask to protect you from them, are the same kind of people that will go to super spreader events with reckless abandon.
Yeah. Fair point.
Im not sure what you’d class as a super spreader event but I’ll be going back to OT in August without any questions asked.
Her commentary on the South African & Brazilian variants didn't really amount to her trend. I acknowledge her fears, but it's a very selective area to call out and one which has a very low first dose percentage in comparison to the rest of the country.
Based on current data, schools would be classed as super spreader events. It's definitely the elephant in the room.
Is that right? Good news if so. Where are you seeing these data? How big is the variation in vaccine uptake between NE and SW (the two regions compared in her tweet)
Highest case rates in the UK per 100k and first dose % in the far column.
More localised information tells the red; story, younger ages not fully vaccinated yet and in areas of higher case rates.
Please don’t get me started on that!!
That whole situation is a fecking joke!!
Be surprised if me 2 kids spend their full time in school over the next 3 weeks having just been off for the past week because of one kid with the virus.
I don`t know what to believe anymore. Cases rising, surge in the North East , doctors warning about relaxing restrictions too soon. On the other hand we have got huge gatherings all over Europe of unmasked football fans singing, hugging and in close contact , wimbledon crowds , music events , less mask wearing than ever and talk of ending social distancing and mask wearing alltogether in a couple of weeks. Something doesn`t add up.
A couple of my 40-something family members tested positive on their routine LFT tests earlier this week. Both primary school teachers, both double vaccinated. They and their unvaccinated teenage son have all now tested positive on PCR. None of them seriously ill fortunately, and they're all quarantined, but it's still grim news.
It's like a viral/vaccine experimentation Petri dish out there.