SARS CoV-2 coronavirus / Covid-19 (No tin foil hat silliness please)
- Thread starter Don't Kill Bill
- Start date
Can’t we just jazz hands the names of the variants?
What's the latest view on vaccine efficacy against this variant? I thought it was +80% for Pfizer.
Also do you know how long the vaccines are presumed to last? So many elderly or high risk people will be needing boosters soon.
Sorry for my ignorance. I just still see many people using the origin as the variant name.
It's not fine to call something what it is? Excellent. Good work people.
Variants can happen anywhere, there's no point stigmatising a country or place when it's almost random where it pop up. We've seen them emerge on almost every continent except Africa and Oceania.
The place names are just as arbitrary as the Greek letter names so why not just go with the latter so we don't get "kung-flu" and people associating it with Chinese people being disease ridden.
Has anyone got any actual proof of patient 0 for any of these variants yet?
Nah mate, not ignorant, if you don’t see a bit of news, you simply haven’t seen it.
I actually remember when they announced it was gonna be called Covid-19 and everybody was like “no way that catches on.”
Against the Delta variant - it looks like it's around 30/35% for a single dose (AZ or Pfizer) rising to at least 60% (AZ) or 80%(Pfizer) after two doses. Those are the stats for any symptomatic disease though. The protection against hospitalisation after two doses looks like it's in excess of 90% (AZ or Pfizer) but that estimate relies on some assumptions about the age/hospitalisation profile of unvaccinated people against Delta being similar to the pattern seen against previous versions - we'll know more about that in the next few weeks.
No one knows how long the protection lasts, because we don't know for sure how to track immunity (it's not just about antibody levels). They use regular testing of a group of (mostly) healthcare workers to keep a look out for how the vaccines are holding up over time and between variants. For planning, I believe the NHS are assuming that the older risk groups will need booster vaccines in the autumn.
The Beta variant is the virus formerly known as South African.
I didn't see that. I thought the Delta variant had been given a hyperlocalised name after some river delta area cos there was now more than one Indian variant
And the Eta variant was traced back to a Nigerian origin.
Pathetic Beta South Africa is nothing compared to Alpha UK.
I did forget that though. So just leaves Oceania as the only continent to not produce a variant unless we count North America and Antartica
Come to think of it, how the feck didn't the US produce a notable variant?
| PANGO lineage | WHO label[10] | First outbreak | Designated variant of concern | Earliest sample | Transmissibility |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| B.1.1.7 | Alpha | United Kingdom | 18 Dec 2020 | 7 Feb 2020 | +82% (43–130%) |
| B.1.351 | Beta | South Africa | 14 Jan 2021 | 15 Feb 2020 | +50% (20–113%) |
| P.1 | Gamma | Brazil | 15 Jan 2021 | 7 Apr 2020 | +161% (145–176%) |
| B.1.1.7 with E484K | — | United Kingdom | 5 Feb 2021 | 17 Dec 2020 | Under investigation |
| B.1.429, B.1.427 | Epsilon | United States | 17 Mar 2021 | 11 Apr 2020 | +20% (19%–24%) |
| B.1.617.2 | Delta | India | 6 May 2021 | 21 Nov 2020 | +115% |
| B.1.617.1 | Kappa | India | — | 1 Dec 2020 | Under investigation |
| B.1.525 | Eta | Nigeria | — | 11 Dec 2020 | Under investigation |
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Variants_of_SARS-CoV-2
America has Epsilon
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A fair bit of discussion going on now on ventilation and indoor covid spread. Partly to look at how to avoid things like school outbreaks and how to avoid super-spreader events going forward.
Carbon Dioxide buildup is often used as a proxy for stale air/poor ventilation in occupied buildings. In turn it seems that might be a useful proxy for airbourne virus spread - if only because it's easy to measure. Some countries are starting to look at mandating businesses to use them and equipping schools to do the same.
Just for background, to give an idea of the practical use:
It's not a direct reading of risk, which obviously depends on how many people in the room actually have covid, actual airflow where you're sitting etc - but it's a starting point.
For some places - it'll give news that people don't want to hear. Like their non-opening windows and stuffy windowless conference rooms are a liability unless they upgrade their HVAC system. For other places it'll give them useful guidance on which windows to open. For some of us it will give us a clue if we want to go in that gym, that bar, that office etc.
Belgium is one of the countries introducing their use:
Carbon Dioxide buildup is often used as a proxy for stale air/poor ventilation in occupied buildings. In turn it seems that might be a useful proxy for airbourne virus spread - if only because it's easy to measure. Some countries are starting to look at mandating businesses to use them and equipping schools to do the same.
Just for background, to give an idea of the practical use:
It's not a direct reading of risk, which obviously depends on how many people in the room actually have covid, actual airflow where you're sitting etc - but it's a starting point.
For some places - it'll give news that people don't want to hear. Like their non-opening windows and stuffy windowless conference rooms are a liability unless they upgrade their HVAC system. For other places it'll give them useful guidance on which windows to open. For some of us it will give us a clue if we want to go in that gym, that bar, that office etc.
Belgium is one of the countries introducing their use:
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Cool experiment. Hopefully these monitors go into widespread use. Seems like a cheap/easy way to make indoor spaces safer.
Based on my very basic reading of UK cases vs. deaths data, I make out that we should be averaging about 30 deaths a day right now but it's closer to a third of that level. Hopefully meaning the vaccine is having a noticeable impact?
All I'm looking at is a 14 day lag between cases and deaths during the last peak, vs this time around (14 days because it seems to always take about 2 weeks before a rise or fall in cases is seen in death figures)
June 6th 7 day average deaths = 9
7 day average cases 14 days ago = 2,531
nearest equivalent 7 day average of cases in Autumn 2020 was 10th September (2,528)
7 day average of deaths 14 days after 10th September = 28
It will be skewed by the fact there are a lot more tests happening than last year, but it was weirdly accurate in Jan-April when I was trying to understand to what extent deaths would decrease over the coming days/weeks based on case rates.
I'm expecting someone much better with this kind of thing than me will soon point out some glaring hole/lack of logic in what I've done, in which case I will happily admit I'm talking rubbish!
All I'm looking at is a 14 day lag between cases and deaths during the last peak, vs this time around (14 days because it seems to always take about 2 weeks before a rise or fall in cases is seen in death figures)
June 6th 7 day average deaths = 9
7 day average cases 14 days ago = 2,531
nearest equivalent 7 day average of cases in Autumn 2020 was 10th September (2,528)
7 day average of deaths 14 days after 10th September = 28
It will be skewed by the fact there are a lot more tests happening than last year, but it was weirdly accurate in Jan-April when I was trying to understand to what extent deaths would decrease over the coming days/weeks based on case rates.
I'm expecting someone much better with this kind of thing than me will soon point out some glaring hole/lack of logic in what I've done, in which case I will happily admit I'm talking rubbish!
You're right. That's been the good news story in the middle of the rising cases of Delta variant. If you look at the age distributed case heat maps, the cases are much higher in the younger age groups than the older ones and the only real explanation for it is that the over 70s are mostly double vaccinated now.
Historically most of the hospitalisations are in the 60+ group and the deaths are concentrated in the over 70s and those with high risk medical conditions - again almost all have been double vaccinated. That's also how it currently feels to the hospitals - Bolton's cases were mostly of working age adults, and most of those hospitalised were in their 30s/40s.
That said, it looks like right now, roughly 5% of cases are being hospitalised. As the case numbers are rising fast, the risk is that hospitalistions will do the same. Even in terms of stopping hospitals getting overloaded again we're looking at a race between the vaccine and the virus and this variant still has a few weeks head start when it comes to the under 50s.
All the stats people are currently saying that we're right on the "too close to call" line when it comes to what happens next, and which bits of the 21st June reopening can go ahead without causing an exit wave of hospitalisations/deaths that could send us backwards again. Personally I think we'll see some changes - more guests at weddings etc, fewer limits on outdoor activities. Other measures will stay - probably around things like masks, WFH and social distancing at indoor events. But that's just me guessing what they'll do, not what's a good idea to do. Basically we could do with a few more weeks worth of vaccinations.
This thread is really fascinating (if a little techy for non-scientists) Potentially excellent news too.
tl;dr. There have been variants in the past which took off like delta, only to turn out not to be more transmissible. Why? If enough new cases are seeded in the same region in a short space of time that can give the illusion of the variant being much more transmissible than it really is.
This tweet (and replies) are similarly reassuring.
The June 21st step to be delayed a fortnight according to The Times.
Makes sense tbf, i have no issues if we keep the current freedoms for a couple more weeks.
Just don't tell the bloke that runs the redissue twitter account
Anyone know what’s required if I want to travel from ireland to Northern Ireland (once allowed off course!)
These variant names are getting weirder than Elon Musk's kids names.
Not sure but I think you need a vets certificate and proof you have been purged in EU approved fresh water, its something like that anyway.
As far as I know you’re just advised to do a lateral flow test if travelling within the common travel area.
Just had a phone call from the kids school saying we should be in isolation, and not sending the kids in as we've been to Spain in the half-term break. We only went to Dymchurch
The lies a 7 year old can concoct
The lies a 7 year old can concoct
He would've gotten away with if it weren't for you meddling adultsJust had a phone call from the kids school saying we should be in isolation, and not sending the kids in as we've been to Spain in the half-term break. We only went to Dymchurch
The lies a 7 year old can concoct
It's really annoying to see these case rises yet again hitting the Greater Manchester area so badly, but then seeing so many people around here acting like it's all over. Buses, trams and trains are all getting even worse with the increasing numbers of no-maskers on them, and the same is true in shops and supermarkets.
There are strange groups of people embracing the no mask movement too. Old people seem to think they're now invincible, so they don't bother, then there are the teenagers who are peer-pressured into not wearing one when they're with their mates, and there seems to be a denial of any problem existing at all within many South Asian decent families around here. The first I kind of understand, but the latter I don't get at all. Multiple generations of Hindu and Muslim families (I live in a pretty diverse area) wander around the shops seemingly without a care in the world, looking at people like myself as if I'm an idiot for wearing a mask. Have these communities been targeted with conspiracy theories more than others?
There are strange groups of people embracing the no mask movement too. Old people seem to think they're now invincible, so they don't bother, then there are the teenagers who are peer-pressured into not wearing one when they're with their mates, and there seems to be a denial of any problem existing at all within many South Asian decent families around here. The first I kind of understand, but the latter I don't get at all. Multiple generations of Hindu and Muslim families (I live in a pretty diverse area) wander around the shops seemingly without a care in the world, looking at people like myself as if I'm an idiot for wearing a mask. Have these communities been targeted with conspiracy theories more than others?
It’s just not realistic to expect people to take these antisocial precautionary measures when the risks are reduced so much due to the most vulnerable being fully vaccinated and most others being halfway there. You can construct plenty of logical arguments for and against, depending on your political leanings, life priorities, risk tolerance etc. They were adhered to when people were forced to through medical, social and legislative pressure but as those fade, the ones that were on the fence will jump off. This will all be built into the epidemiological models. Can’t help much worrying about expected challenges.
I’m currently in St. Petersburg for the Euros and it’s complete 2019 here.
Of course had to do a test before entering the country, but Nevsky Prospekt is busier than ever before, white nights means everyone is out all the time, bars/restaurants/night clubs at full capacity and I’ve barely seen any masks for a week, be it on the gorgeous metro, bus, shops or street.
I’m surprised Spb didn’t go 100% capacity for euro matches now. 50% seems to just be lip service.
25 degrees and sunny everyday so far
Of course had to do a test before entering the country, but Nevsky Prospekt is busier than ever before, white nights means everyone is out all the time, bars/restaurants/night clubs at full capacity and I’ve barely seen any masks for a week, be it on the gorgeous metro, bus, shops or street.
I’m surprised Spb didn’t go 100% capacity for euro matches now. 50% seems to just be lip service.
25 degrees and sunny everyday so far
First heard this on radio 5 whilst driving, they talked of Manchester, Manchester, Manchester and Manchester and then right at the end, almost cut off, and Lancashire as well. National radio my arse.
First thought is the same as with every other restriction or travel ban brought in, it's a fortnight too late, and obviously so. Second thought is that it's going to be widely ignored anyway, sorry to say.
This post was brought to you by the Russia Tourism Board.
So my daughter has been sent home from school for ten days, because she has been in close contact with someone with covid, even though she had a negative test yesterday.
This is more education she's missing out on again after having so much time off.
This whole thing is a joke and doesn't make sense. What is the point in taking test's if they just ignore the results anyway.
This is more education she's missing out on again after having so much time off.
This whole thing is a joke and doesn't make sense. What is the point in taking test's if they just ignore the results anyway.
Because if she was positive you would be quarantined also.
Close contacts should get two tests. If the second test (in about a week’s time) is negative then she can carry on with her life as normal. You need two tests because it can take a week or more for someone to test positive after being exposed.
What's the best approach with testing?
I know someone who came into contact with a Covid positive person last week Thursday (actually whole of last week). The Covid positive person went for a test yesterday and came back positive, and the positive person had symptoms since last Friday. The person I know also went for a test yesterday and came back negative. Should they go for another test in a few days?
Read Hungary want to be at full capacity for the games they're hosting although don't know if that's 100%.
Had my thinking the other day....how are Italy and Spain doing now as you don't see the figures much in the press compared to 12 months ago so assume it's goodish news? Similar levels to here and variants haven't taken hold.