I have never seen so many holiday makers cramming into shops, pubs and cafes as there has been this week in my whole life , it is busier than ever round here and very few masks being worn.
SARS CoV-2 coronavirus / Covid-19 (No tin foil hat silliness please)
- Thread starter Don't Kill Bill
- Start date
It's just a little bit frustrating when you have been following the rules for over a year. You could see the situation in India getting worse and worse ages ago. The government were to slow to react and close off the border. It was so obvious it needed doing sooner.
That data and analysis you shared are highly concerning.
Schools in Scotland close in 4 weeks, in England nigh on a month later.
Yeah, it’s infuriating. Even if they’d cut the number of cases arriving from India by 50% the reopening might be able to go ahead as planned. How many fecking bodies being burned do you need to see to think maybe we should err on the side of caution?! The UK got such a great start with the vaccination roll out, breaks my heart ( as someone with friends/family in the UK and completely open borders with you) to see such a blatant feck-up when we were so close to the end.
Shitting hell. Two months from now?! That’s not good at all.
Wales have delayed allowing mixing indoors (3 households can form a bubble) by at least a further 3 weeks. That’s after June 21st so I don’t think all social distancing will be gone by then somehow.
Hopefully those beer gardens are full of chainsmokers.
What did they do to deserve hearing The Chainsmokers?
Just so long as none of them are on benefits.
Anyone else roll their eyes at the thought of Portugal being struck off the green list a mere week after thousands of football fans come back from....Portugal?
It’s worse then that the official line is to stop the Nepal variant as they don’t wanna take any risks.
laughable when you consider where we are now thanks to not stopping flights from India
It’s worse then that the official line is to stop the Nepal variant as they don’t wanna take any risks.
laughable when you consider where we are now thanks to not stopping flights from India
It's beyond comprehension now!!
A good summary of what the various bits of data in the latest PHE briefing do to projections of hospitalisations. Still a lot of uncertainty, not yet seeing a need to go back a step, but probably delaying June 21st a bit and hopefully accelerating distribution of vaccines.
Umm, might need to be careful with statements like that. 2 doses of AZ still appears to be very effective against hospitalisation and death. There may well be more symptomatic cases, but it's not like you're not protected at all after 2 doses.
Ok, yeah, I worded that badly. The individual in whom the vaccine “fails” will hopefully have some protection against serious illness but for 1 in 3 the vaccine won’t stop them getting infected. Which ultimately leads to more and more cases and more seriously ill/dead.
Most, if not all schools in the NW break up for summer in July, I'd be delaying the 21st June deadline or whatever it is until August.
That's a whole different thing to what you misstated earlier. So if the majority of this country are double dosed up on AZ then they have an almost 0 out of 3 (not 1 out of 3) chance of serious hospitalisation or death.
The only ones at risk of serious hospitalisation/death are anti vaxxers or young population awaiting vaccination (who are at a much lower risk anyway - leaving long covid aside).
Weird that you would accuse me of a misstatement in a post containing such a blatant factual inaccuracy. Have a read of the data on the Indian variant posted in this thread. People who have had both vaccine doses have already been hospitalised by this variant. That number will obviously get higher and higher if the case numbers continue to increase.
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Apologies, I didn't mean you did anything deliberately. Bad choice of words from me. Appreciate the time you and others are spending on this and helping us all out by posting your knowledge here.
I try to understand these reports and numbers but my eyes start to glaze over. Best if I try again and come back with questions.
Based on that data, you're concluding that on 7 people having being hospitalised that have had both doses (i.e. an inpatient admission)? It's a very, very low percentage.
From Newsweek:
"In the WIV's grant applications and awards, The Seeker found detailed descriptions of the Institute's research plans, and they were damning: Projects were underway to test the infectivity of novel SARS-like viruses they'd discovered in human cells and in lab animals, to see how they might mutate as they crossed species, and to genetically recombine pieces of different viruses—all being done at woefully inadequate biosecurity levels. All the elements for a disaster were on hand. Of course, that is not proof that a disaster took place. Barring unlikely eyewitness testimony, we may never have that. But all the evidence DRASTIC has produced points in the same direction: The Wuhan Institute of Virology had spent years collecting dangerous coronaviruses, some of which it has never revealed to the world. It was actively testing these viruses to determine their ability to infect people, as well as what mutations might be necessary to enhance that ability—likely with the ultimate goal of producing a vaccine that would protect against all of them. And the ongoing effort to cover this up implies that something may have gone wrong."
"On nearly the same day, The Seeker struck again. Visiting a database hosted by China's Ministry of Science and Technology, he searched for all theses supervised by Shi Zhengli. Boom. Three hits. "I got it on my first try," he says. "Not sure why no one else thought of this before, but I guess no one was looking." If there had been any remaining doubt about the WIV's pattern of deception, these new theses put it to rest. They indicated that the WIV researchers had never believed a fungus had killed the Mojiang miners, contradicting Shi's remarks in Scientific American and elsewhere. In fact, WIV researchers had been so concerned about a new SARS-like outbreak that they'd tested the blood of neighboring villagers for other cases. And they had known the genetic sequences for the eight other SARS-like viruses from the mine—which could have helped researchers to understand more about SARS-CoV-2 in the early days —long before the pandemic started, and had kept the information to themselves, until DRASTIC called them out."
https://www.newsweek.com/exclusive-...oke-wuhan-lab-story-embarrassed-media-1596958
"In the WIV's grant applications and awards, The Seeker found detailed descriptions of the Institute's research plans, and they were damning: Projects were underway to test the infectivity of novel SARS-like viruses they'd discovered in human cells and in lab animals, to see how they might mutate as they crossed species, and to genetically recombine pieces of different viruses—all being done at woefully inadequate biosecurity levels. All the elements for a disaster were on hand. Of course, that is not proof that a disaster took place. Barring unlikely eyewitness testimony, we may never have that. But all the evidence DRASTIC has produced points in the same direction: The Wuhan Institute of Virology had spent years collecting dangerous coronaviruses, some of which it has never revealed to the world. It was actively testing these viruses to determine their ability to infect people, as well as what mutations might be necessary to enhance that ability—likely with the ultimate goal of producing a vaccine that would protect against all of them. And the ongoing effort to cover this up implies that something may have gone wrong."
"On nearly the same day, The Seeker struck again. Visiting a database hosted by China's Ministry of Science and Technology, he searched for all theses supervised by Shi Zhengli. Boom. Three hits. "I got it on my first try," he says. "Not sure why no one else thought of this before, but I guess no one was looking." If there had been any remaining doubt about the WIV's pattern of deception, these new theses put it to rest. They indicated that the WIV researchers had never believed a fungus had killed the Mojiang miners, contradicting Shi's remarks in Scientific American and elsewhere. In fact, WIV researchers had been so concerned about a new SARS-like outbreak that they'd tested the blood of neighboring villagers for other cases. And they had known the genetic sequences for the eight other SARS-like viruses from the mine—which could have helped researchers to understand more about SARS-CoV-2 in the early days —long before the pandemic started, and had kept the information to themselves, until DRASTIC called them out."
https://www.newsweek.com/exclusive-...oke-wuhan-lab-story-embarrassed-media-1596958
267 cases after getting both doses of the vaccine. Of those, 10 were admitted to hospital. 2 (already) dead. When you’re talking about the sort of numbers potentially exposed in a significant surge those are not “very, very low percentages”
The fact it’s “only” 267 cases shows how effective two doses are at protecting you but it’s wrong to imply you can’t end up very sick after getting two doses (and the big concern, obviously, is the much lower protection from a single dose)
10 out of 267 is a very low percentage though. The number of cases won’t change the percentage if that’s how effective two doses is. I get the point you’re trying to make though. Even at very low percentages, cases can still be high.
From that data it’s actually a lower percentage post 1 dose. Which is probably more reflective of the age group of people on one dose versus two.
OK, you're moving the discussion point a bit differently from what your original point was about, hospitalisation.
Based on those data sets, 267 is 2.83% of the total cases. The hospitalisation rate of those with both doses is 0.07% of the total cases, and doesn't provide context of the people on those second doses (are they in a risk category? how long did they have their second dose? age? etc). It's very, very low. No one is implying that you can't get very sick, but certainly there isn't a need for anyone to get to the level of panic that they were at with the second wave.
Even if you extrapolate that rate to the height of the second peak, where there was nearly 60,000 cases per day on average, you're looking at inpatient hospitalisation rates of 42 per day.
Yeah, excellent point. It would be interesting to know the ages of the vaccinated cases. The fact they’ve had both doses makes it more likely they’re elderly, where the chance of ending up in hospital is much higher to begin with.
I don’t want to get too negative here anyway. I just think it’s risky to ignore the way this vaccine seems to tick all the boxes needed to move the goalposts set when reopening was first planned (more transmissible, more severe illness and vaccines less effective)
If everyone had got two doses then this variant is basically a non-event. I only went down a tangent about them not being 100% protected because that’s just not the case. Obviously the far bigger concern are the millions of people not yet fully vaccinated, or not yet vaccinated at all.
I think we’re all just nervous. Some people deal with it by preparing for worst case and some want to pretend everything will be fine. I probably flip between both.
I feel a lot more positive now. Thanks knowledgeable folk. Got my second dose on Thursday and it can't come quick enough.
I kind of feel that if this hypothesis is real, the CCP will have destroyed whatever evidence remains by now and made sure that no one from the lab will ever speak out about it, so it's never going to get proven no matter how many investigations there may be into the lab from the outside. So it's just going to remain there as a possiblity untill a natural emergence has been proven which also might never happen.
How quickly could the vaccines be tweaked to deal with this variant which is sticking around and starting to cause a bit of bother, September?
I'd say if you can get updates ready for then and also starting vaxxing decent amount of 11-18 when they're going back to education that's the one chance to get a reasonably normal winter (albeit with mask wearing) occuring otherwise it will be just a repeat of last winter (hopefully though with far fewer deaths).
Any reason to think the world can get back to Jan 2020.....before January 2022. I very much doubt it. Got my first jab on Wednesday afternoon anyway so nearly time.
How reputable is Newsweek ?
The Times today reports that the number of elderly patients in hospital is continuing to fall and although there is an increase in the number of younger people being admitted they're "less sick" than those admitted during the first two waves.
I agree, yet I’m sure the CCP would share any information that seemed to support the natural evolution theory, and they’re clearly being deceptive, that only supports the idea they don’t have it.
I still think it’s worth looking at all the information and seeing how it fits into both explanations. The more I look into the technical side, it doesn’t well match what you would expect to evolve naturally. There is no natural virus that has jumped species that is more infective in the second host. We should find less infective versions from previous generations, for example.
A tidy pile of this sort of data is pretty impressive to my mind.
Is 40% more transmissible bad but not as bad as feared?
It’s about the same as the “Kent variant” vs the primary European one, it’s a significant step change. The difference is that we’re in summer where transmission was much lower last year, it’s been discovered when cases where much lower, and protection is much higher.
It seems like it won't cause a huge wave but these variants need to be nipped in the bud. The UK has allowed two variants to spread through the population and I don't think this is the final variant the world will see.
WHO accused people for stigmatization as they called the previously unnamed virus as "Wuhan virus". Why is it fine to call the variants as "Indian/UK/Kent variants"?
They literally just announced they’re renaming them after Greek letters this week
It’s not, which is why they have started using green letters
Great now colour blind people will be more at risk!