Well yes but no because there's worries over the Delta variant (fka Indian).
The UK isn't quite out of the woods yet.
SARS CoV-2 coronavirus / Covid-19 (No tin foil hat silliness please)
- Thread starter Don't Kill Bill
- Start date
The UK isn't quite out of the woods yet.
Yes, I get that, but the question wasn't asking about averages, or even percentages, it was asking about absolute numbers of deaths during the covid era compared to before. What happened to those that did not die isn't relevant to the question.
Hope you soon shake it off. Sorry you've caught it. xTest returned positive.
Not quite but things are far more positive.
There's a possible third wave brewing. Things are actually on a knife edge. Unfortunately most people don't seem to know this. Its worrying.
Thanks Penna!
Is this really true?
I saw the reports yesterday but they seemed to be one scientist suggesting this, without much evidence other than very very slow and small rise in cases.
Not looking promising, however I feel that hospital admissions will be far lower due to the uptake of vaccines?
Does that not mean that the third wave will be not much more than a flurry, or am I misconstruing?
My hospital have evacuated a ward already and secured it as an “additional COVID ITU”, as it neighbours the real ITU area. I think it’s more down to preparation/planning than genuine concern.
My faith in these vaccines may make me a bit too naive, but I don’t believe the third wave will come close to the first wave, let alone the second. Our hospital have remained COVID free for a couple of weeks at least now, and we had yet to see any person come in with COVID who had the vaccine.
With that being said, it’s when the virus has mutated enough, say in a year or so, we’ll know for sure whether the vaccines can continue to have a grip of it.
My faith in these vaccines may make me a bit too naive, but I don’t believe the third wave will come close to the first wave, let alone the second. Our hospital have remained COVID free for a couple of weeks at least now, and we had yet to see any person come in with COVID who had the vaccine.
With that being said, it’s when the virus has mutated enough, say in a year or so, we’ll know for sure whether the vaccines can continue to have a grip of it.
Mutations should reduce more or less in direct correlation to total infections, which will be pushed ever downwards by vaccination and actual SARS-CoV-2 infections and therefore will hopefully become less and less of an issue. It doesn't mean we can't get one or more bad variant of course but the chances are gradually reducing.
I'd guess the worry is that with vaccination increasing and the weather improving as we go into summer, that any rise in cases is worrying. With so many vaccinated you would hope the next wave would be significantly attenuated but unless we get to the HIT (whatever that is. Maybe around 75-80%) then another wave is possible.
I imagine its a mixture of them all. The UK (for once actually true) does have world leading sequencing data I believe. We also have an almost uniquely large Indian diaspora in Western terms (only country which has more total is USA, only ones which have more per capita are Canada and maybe NZ?
But of course we've also had an excellent chance to stop it at source and implement a good border policy. If still not for everyone, at least for countries with variants of concern....but alas. We don't think that far ahead. Idiots.
Little WFH update, I'm sure there was another thread for this kind of thing but can't find it...
Work gave us an update a fortnight ago that we would be planning a return to the office after 21st June. Since WFH work have bought a new office on the same street which none of us have been in yet. We've been told inductions in to the building (Managed space) will be from 21st June and the earliest we will be back in the office is 5th July.
They then sent out a survey to employees with options like:
Yes I'm happy to have my induction and return to office work.
Yes I'm happy to have my induction and return to office work but I have some concerns about COVID.
Yes I'm happy to have my induction but I would not like to return to office work just yet due to concerns about COVID.
No I don't want to have my induction or return to office work.
I picked the 3rd option and gave a ton of rationale. My personal circumstances have changed. Girlfriend went back off maternity last year and was made redundant instantly and lost her company car, we now have one. She started a new job last week and has 12 weeks training in the office then permanent work from home. I don't want to buy a second car for the sake of a few weeks commute. My son is also 22 months old now and we had to find a nursery at 10 days notice for this new job and so we don't have all the days we want and have had to patch it together with family etc. WFH makes it work.
Just got a call invite for Friday afternoon to discuss with the entire business unit. Typical shit house behaviour when they want to drop a bad message that people can't then act on or discuss in work time haha. Man, I'm really dreading a 1 hour commute each way and my freedoms being pulled from under me. We delivered our best ever performance last financial year too working from home.
Work gave us an update a fortnight ago that we would be planning a return to the office after 21st June. Since WFH work have bought a new office on the same street which none of us have been in yet. We've been told inductions in to the building (Managed space) will be from 21st June and the earliest we will be back in the office is 5th July.
They then sent out a survey to employees with options like:
Yes I'm happy to have my induction and return to office work.
Yes I'm happy to have my induction and return to office work but I have some concerns about COVID.
Yes I'm happy to have my induction but I would not like to return to office work just yet due to concerns about COVID.
No I don't want to have my induction or return to office work.
I picked the 3rd option and gave a ton of rationale. My personal circumstances have changed. Girlfriend went back off maternity last year and was made redundant instantly and lost her company car, we now have one. She started a new job last week and has 12 weeks training in the office then permanent work from home. I don't want to buy a second car for the sake of a few weeks commute. My son is also 22 months old now and we had to find a nursery at 10 days notice for this new job and so we don't have all the days we want and have had to patch it together with family etc. WFH makes it work.
Just got a call invite for Friday afternoon to discuss with the entire business unit. Typical shit house behaviour when they want to drop a bad message that people can't then act on or discuss in work time haha. Man, I'm really dreading a 1 hour commute each way and my freedoms being pulled from under me. We delivered our best ever performance last financial year too working from home.
@Ady87, the options they gave you are ridicuous. Many people won't want to return at short notice because like you, your family situation has changed during the pandemic and they need more time to get things organised. It's nothing to do with being fearful of Covid.
The fourth option they gave you seems like a fast-track to getting rid of people, on the premise that they've refused an induction.
The fourth option they gave you seems like a fast-track to getting rid of people, on the premise that they've refused an induction.
Think that's a fair approach from your employer, what's their take on WFH post lock down ?
We have been told it will be 3 days in the office from June 21st and then 4 days from August , no excuses really unless you are shielding.
All BS anyway as most of the departments won't have enough desk space for everyone to return in mass
They seem to have missed 'Yes I'm happy to have my induction but I would not like to return to office as I am as productive, if not more from home, it saves me 2 hours a day in commute, it saves me money on fuel and car wear and tear, and is better for the environment'
Well, I’ve now got to self isolate for 5 days. NHS test and trace has buzzed me and my Mrs today.
Good to see it's doing it's job.
Not that I think it's anywhere near perfect, before some idiot jumps on me.
Yeah, I’m presuming it’s just picked up our neighbours Bluetooth as they’re both really ill withCovid right now. Even so, I’ll do my bit and stay inside.
I’ve had to reschedule my second jab which was due tomorrow.
Oh dear, that's bad timing. But you're doing the right thing.
Shit getting real with this poxy Indian variant. More transmissible, resistant to vaccines (especially after single dose) and as of today we know it’s twice as likely to put you in hospital. In the context of rising cases and increasing numbers in hospital. Looking more and more as though pressing on with full re-opening on the 12th is the exact opposite of the “data not dates” promises made a while back.
I’d wait on the hospitalisation claim seems a bit ahead of the gun, seeming as though they set it as confidence low on their risk assessment.
Yeah let’s wait on the data before we panic over the Delta variant (although I do love a good panic!). If it does turn out to be more deadly, we really need to find out why this virus is behaving this way where by every major mutation (I know it must mutate a lot more than we hear about but I mean the ones of concern) all seem to make it more infectious AND more deadly. What’s it gonna be like in five yrs?
I’m not sure what you mean? The data in that tweet looks rock solid. Big numbers being analysed and highly statistically significant result.
Only reiterating what is posted by themselves.
https://assets.publishing.service.g...k_assessment_for_SARS-CoV-2_variant_DELTA.pdf
We only hear about the mutations that make the virus more effective because they’re the ones that end up dominating. There’s a much bigger number of mutations that make it less good at its job but they’re all evolutionary dead ends that nobody gives a shit about.
I’ve no idea where we’ll be in five years time but I’m clinging to what I heard from a virologist who said that there’s only so many mutations it can possibly go through that are beneficial to the virus. We have to hope that this latest variant is as close to ‘perfection’ as it will ever get.
Scaremongering at it's finest. Hospital death's aren't rising are they? We can't keep locking down every time a new variant is discovered. This isn't isn't going away. It will go on for years.
Ok, gotcha. Well these data are hot off the press. Today is the first time we’ve seen any evidence of increased severity so you can understand why they’re hedging their bets. The results do seem quite convincing though.
Great response. So what's you suggestion? Stay inside the house for another year?
Only thing I’d say is when Kent was first detected and the data analysed I remember them saying it may result in up to 70% higher mortality but that turned out not to be the case. But yeah - we have to be looking at a 4 week delay here surely? And the school data is showing that’s the big driver for transmission - still no news here on vaccinating 12+ yet.
I’m fairly sure I remember you bleating about “scaremongering” in the run up to UK hospitals being pushed to the wall at least once, possibly twice, before. So not sure how else to respond to such a dumb comment.
My suggestion? Defer full reopening until a hell of a lot more people have had two doses of vaccine. Simple and obvious. So simple and obvious that I think it might actually happen.
Good point re mortality from Kent variant but I don’t remember seeing outcomes data as convincing as this when that variant was starting to dominate. Could be wrong. My memory isn’t great.
When do schools close for summer in the UK? Seems to be a race against time in terms of vaccine and schools right now. In Ireland our private schools are all closing in the next week or two. Public schools in three weeks time. Which hopefully buys us a bit of breathing space.
Weren't we told that if you don't have any underlying health conditions it would be rare to get seriously Ill off covid? If all of the vulnerable people have already had both doses then what's the problem?
the problem is the mass of numbers it’s highly unlikely on an individual level a lot of people would need to worry.
but millions upon millions of people even 0-30 years olds still an issue.
quick look at the total beds in the U.K. is 130k ish that’s gotta cover every ailment in society nvm just covid
I think that’s the hardest part for most people to get their head round. It’s not that everyone’s going to die of covid it’s just the health service is dead on it’s feet
Rare is not the same thing as impossible. Even if 1 in 1000 healthy 30 year olds get hospitalised by this virus (most likely real figure much higher than this) that’s a hell of a burden on hospitals/ICUs if millions get infected. Then we have the approximate 1 in 3 (at any age) who won’t be protected against this variant even after two doses of AZ (by far the most widely used vaccine in the UK) and the numbers look even worse. We’re already seeing people hospitalised and dead after two vaccine doses (read the tweets higher up)
There’s a reason that people far more expert than your or me see these latest data as a definitive reason to delay the final stages of reopening. And they’re not saying nobody leave their home. They’re saying cramming into pubs, restaurants and night clubs is a bad idea right now. Not until a hell of a lot more people, of all ages, are fully vaccinated. As I said, simple and obvious. The UK have made a load of bad decisions throughout this pandemic but I think they’ll get this one right.
Yeah, that last bit is a great point. Fatigue and burn-out aside, the hospitals have only recently started eating into the massive backlog of routine medical and surgical care. It would be devastating for them to have to batten down the hatches and pause all the waiting lists all over again.
You have more faith in them than me!