SARS CoV-2 coronavirus / Covid-19 (No tin foil hat silliness please)

africanspur said:
While it's true that AZ is less effective against the variant it seems, I'm going to stick my neck out and say that the movement of people between India and the UK is going to be significantly higher than it is between India and Israel (or indeed India and any other Western country other than the USA).
Click to expand...

Worth noting that B117 (which originated in the UK) has become the dominant variant in Israel, so they’re not exactly watertight when it comes to importing foreign variants. Although now they’re basically fully vaccinated it makes it extremely difficult for any new variant to get a foothold, never mind dominate.

We do have some real life effectiveness data coming out of Israel re Uk and SA variants (B117 and B1351) which is generally reassuring. We can’t be 100% certain but it does seem a reasonable assumption that the vaccine resistance we’ve seen from B1351 will be similar with the Indian variant (B16172) because they have the same mutation that theoretically helps them evade the vaccine.

The findings show that people remain susceptible to B.1.1.7 following a single dose of vaccine. They also suggest that the two-dose vaccine may be slightly less effective against B.1.351 compared to the original or B.1.1.7 variants.

It’s important to note, however, that the researchers only observed 11 infections with the B.1.351 variant—eight of them in individuals vaccinated with two doses. Interestingly, all eight tested positive seven to 13 days after receiving their second dose. No one in the study tested positive for this variant two weeks or more after the second dose.
Click to expand...
 
711 said:
That's interesting. Am I reading it right that the two worst affected areas for the recent surge in infection, Bolton and now Blackburn (with Preston just taking off) actually have a higher take-up of vaccine than the national average? If so that's contrary to what a lot of people are saying up here, namely 'it's the indians and pakistanis, they won't take the vaccine'.
Click to expand...
Yep. The idea that there was poor take-up amongst the risk groups and it was because of vaccine rejection by ethnic minority communities was a con.

The main reason why vaccinated percentage was noticeably low in the worst affected parts of the town was because the average age was lower in those areas. The virus raced through the 11-40 group in those areas basically.

Some of the hospitalised had been fully vaccinated, 5 out of 47 (as of last Friday) were in that category. At the time when this thing took hold in Bolton, only the over 60s were in that group.

The hospitalised group are between 18 and 101, with the majority in their 30s and 40s.
 
jojojo said:
Yep. The idea that there was poor take-up amongst the risk groups and it was because of vaccine rejection by ethnic minority communities was a con.

The main reason why vaccinated percentage was noticeably low in the worst affected parts of the town was because the average age was lower in those areas. The virus raced through the 11-40 group in those areas basically.

Some of the hospitalised had been fully vaccinated, 5 out of 47 (as of last Friday) were in that category. At the time when this thing took hold in Bolton, only the over 60s were in that group.

The hospitalised group are between 18 and 101, with the majority in their 30s and 40s.
Click to expand...
That's how I read it, and the situation, thanks.

For people not in the northwest the opinion of average joe on the street at the moment is very worrying indeed, 'it's the asians that brought it in, they're spreading it in the mosques, it's because of eid', and worse that I wouldn't print. I think the press, and politicians, need to be aware of this and be very careful how they phrase things, and try to defuse the worst. I'm not saying they should lie or ignore any actual facts, but they do need to consider the effect of how they present them.
 
Weren’t cases always going to rise as UK opened up. I get there’s a need to delay full relaxations until we know full impact and that’s sensible but increase in cases is surely what everyone expected, including new variants that were always going to spread at most among unvaccinated groups.
 
stw2022 said:
Weren’t cases always going to rise as UK opened up. I get there’s a need to delay full relaxations until we know full impact and that’s sensible but increase in cases is surely what everyone expected, including new variants that were always going to spread at most among unvaccinated groups.
Click to expand...

Absolutely. And the plans for reopening are based on models which takes this expected rise in cases into account. The tricky bit is when predicted parameters change. Such as a new variant which is much more transmissable than the variant which was dominant when these plans were made. It was always inevitable that case numbers would rise as society reopened (so we shouldn’t freak out when that inevitably happens) The tricky bit now is accurately predicting exactly how high those numbers will get.
 
Pogue Mahone said:
Absolutely. And the plans for reopening are based on models which takes this expected rise in cases into account. The tricky bit is when predicted parameters change. Such as a new variant which is much more transmissable than the variant which was dominant when these plans were made. It was always inevitable that case numbers would rise as society reopened (so we shouldn’t freak out when that inevitably happens) The tricky bit now is accurately predicting exactly how high those numbers will get.
Click to expand...

How quickly did the Kent variant become dominant?

To me it seems there’s a need to reassess what success means as online I see a lot despairing at rise in cases when this could never end without that happening. That said now the new variant is seemingly dominant a 6-8 week wait from this point on to see what’s the impact on hospitalisations and deaths seems sensible
 
Pogue Mahone said:
What the heck is going on in my old ‘hood, RBKC? Must be the fault of @Jippy or @MikeUpNorth
Click to expand...
I'm just next door to RBKC in H&F and that's even further left.
My brain is struggling with that graphic- so basically it's a younger population with a low jab rate or we have loads of refuseniks?
 
Pogue Mahone said:
Gah. My memory’s fecked.
Click to expand...

Nah Mike did live in West for a bit, he just pretends he didn’t now he’s part of the Islington Metropolitan Elite... which as far as I can tell just means he gets to tell other people who live there that they’re elite for living there
 
Jippy said:
I'm just next door to RBKC in H&F and that's even further left.
My brain is struggling with that graphic- so basically it's a younger population with a low jab rate or we have loads of refuseniks?
Click to expand...

H&F median age about 5 years younger than RBKC. Both of them have terrible jab uptake. Dunno if it’s because the rollout has been terrible or loads of refuseniks. Presumably the latter?
 
Pogue Mahone said:
H&F median age about 5 years younger than RBKC. Both of them have terrible jab uptake. Dunno if it’s because the rollout has been terrible or loads of refuseniks. Presumably the latter?
Click to expand...
I think it must be the latter. I had my jabs in Feb and May and the rollout has been good from what I've seen and heard.
That's really odd. Maybe it's not as full of affluent and like-minded people as I thought:lol:
 
Pogue Mahone said:
Can’t help you with London boroughs but the WHO are trying to make abbreviations for the variants a bit less complicated (also seem worried about stigma from being associated with a new variant, which seems a bit OTT*)

*Over The Top

Click to expand...


It might be the gin but I actually laughed at the explanation for OTT, so cheers!

I think there’s value to that idea actually, these things have power amongst idiots. Look at the increase in violence against Asian Americans with the former idiot in chief coming out with “China virus” and “Kung flu” every five minutes.

Even if it’s passive these things can plant seeds, I’ve seen/heard comments about the “Indian variant” that aren’t great.
 
We shouldn’t even be considering lifting all restrictions until the majority of adults have had their second jab.

Just delay it until late August.
 
I’m in between AZ doses and it’s annoying how it seems every week there’s news that makes AZ look more and more shit compared to Pfizer. How much is it going to matter?

Thankfully both parents are Pfizerized.
 
Pogue Mahone said:
Interesting. Thank. Like you said, very small samples size but reassuring all the same.
Click to expand...

An update to this:

Eight per cent of unvaccinated Covid-19 patients here in the past seven weeks had their condition worsen to the point of requiring supplemental oxygen, said Health Minister Ong Ye Kung on Monday (May 31).

In contrast, during the same time period, only one out of 93 - slightly over one per cent - of those who were vaccinated faced a similar situation, said Mr Ong, who co-chairs the multi-ministry task force (MTF) tackling the coronavirus outbreak here.

Acknowledging that these statistics, which reference locally transmitted cases, did not constitute "a full-scale empirical study", Mr Ong said that as more data becomes available, the protective benefits that Covid-19 vaccination will give an individual will become clearer.

https://www.straitstimes.com/singap...ts-developed-severe-form-of-disease-in-last-7
Click to expand...

TLDR -- Vaccination helps alleviate symptoms. Out of the 93 fully vaccinated people who were infected over the last month or so, only 1 required supplemental oxygen. And that 1 case was already having medical complications before contracting COVID.
 
OleBoiii said:
Has there been any research on whether the summer heat affects the spread of covid? Last summer here in Norway we basically went 3-4 months with almost no restrictions(apart from international travel and 1 meter distancing in bars etc). We had new reported covid cases every day, but things never really spiralled out of control. I wonder why that is?

If the heat does matter, then why has things gotten so out of control in India? Is it because of the mutations? Higher population density?
Click to expand...

I don't think we have the full answers for that yet but it wouldn't be a surprise if there was an effect. However, I'd guess that with such an infectious virus summer alone wouldn't stop or even hugely mitigate an outbreak and that vaccination will be needed to do the heavy lifting.

Possible beneficial factors in summer (all may not apply to covid)
  • +UV increasing Vitamin D production
  • +UV and +temperature reducing how long viruses live on surfaces
  • + temperatures unusual mean the air is less dry and mucus membranes defend against respiratory viruses better and aerosol transmission usually occurs more often when the air is cold and dry.
  • human behavior - less time sent indoors where the virus spreads best and more open windows etc
  • reduced covid and other viruses in summer decreases sneezing and coughing which is the primary method of transmission
  • school summer holidays are usually in summer which further reduces viral spread
 
NYAS said:
I’m in between AZ doses and it’s annoying how it seems every week there’s news that makes AZ look more and more shit compared to Pfizer. How much is it going to matter?

Thankfully both parents are Pfizerized.
Click to expand...
Yeah it seems like the fact that AZ has been so prominently used in the UK may cause a sticking point going forward. while it’s obviously not ineffective it does seem to be the least effective of the jabs used. It still is predicted to be 60% effective against the Indian variant after too jabs but obviously that’s getting to the levels were its basically a coin toss where it is going to be effective or not. But still a lot better than nothing.
 
massi83 said:
You could at least tag your fellow spurs fan, when you are talking about him.
Click to expand...

For fecks sake, had a good chuckle at this! Poor guy hasn't been on since Jan, hope he's coped OK with the terrible season.
 
Nytram Shakes said:
Yeah it seems like the fact that AZ has been so prominently used in the UK may cause a sticking point going forward. while it’s obviously not ineffective it does seem to be the least effective of the jabs used. It still is predicted to be 60% effective against the Indian variant after too jabs but obviously that’s getting to the levels were its basically a coin toss where it is going to be effective or not. But still a lot better than nothing.
Click to expand...

As far as I understood, effectiveness on protecting you to get COVID differs depending on the vaccine and variant but all of them protects you 100% against severe illness (AZ included) that is the main goal of these vaccines.
 
Pogue Mahone said:
Worth noting that B117 (which originated in the UK) has become the dominant variant in Israel, so they’re not exactly watertight when it comes to importing foreign variants. Although now they’re basically fully vaccinated it makes it extremely difficult for any new variant to get a foothold, never mind dominate.

We do have some real life effectiveness data coming out of Israel re Uk and SA variants (B117 and B1351) which is generally reassuring. We can’t be 100% certain but it does seem a reasonable assumption that the vaccine resistance we’ve seen from B1351 will be similar with the Indian variant (B16172) because they have the same mutation that theoretically helps them evade the vaccine.
Click to expand...

All very very true and like I said, I'm sure Pfizer will work superbly against B16172.

Just that it's currently too early to say that the lack of a spike on Israel is due to them using Pfizer as opposed to AZ. Not only does the new variant in the UK seem to be spreading at least partly amongst the unvaccinated but the huge Indian diaspora in the UK (and the recent Gaza war) means that I doubt it has had anywhere near the same opportunity to spread in Israel as it has in the UK.

Of course, this isn't to absolve the UK government in their again almost criminal irresponsibility in delaying putting India on the red list. fecking idiots.
 
Started having a mild cough and feeling sluggish since yesterday. The quick test returned negative but took the PCR test last night anyways and waiting for the results. I'm about 70% sure I probably caught it as I went to a bar on Friday and there's no other way for me to have cold-like symptoms in the summer.:nervous:

So far not too bad and I'm working from home and hope it stays that way.
 
Wednesday at Stoke said:
Started having a mild cough and feeling sluggish since yesterday. The quick test returned negative but took the PCR test last night anyways and waiting for the results. I'm about 70% sure I probably caught it as I went to a bar on Friday and there's no other way for me to have cold-like symptoms in the summer.:nervous:

So far not too bad and I'm working from home and hope it stays that way.
Click to expand...

Hopefully it’s nothing - have you had a dose of any vaccine yet?
 
africanspur said:
All very very true and like I said, I'm sure Pfizer will work superbly against B16172.

Just that it's currently too early to say that the lack of a spike on Israel is due to them using Pfizer as opposed to AZ. Not only does the new variant in the UK seem to be spreading at least partly amongst the unvaccinated but the huge Indian diaspora in the UK (and the recent Gaza war) means that I doubt it has had anywhere near the same opportunity to spread in Israel as it has in the UK.

Of course, this isn't to absolve the UK government in their again almost criminal irresponsibility in delaying putting India on the red list. fecking idiots.
Click to expand...

Yeah, you do make a fair point. I can’t help wondering what other countries got a big influx of travellers from India earlier this year? There must be a few of them around? Why aren’t we hearing about a huge surge of this variant from other countries? Is this because the UK is so much better at generating this sequencing data? Or much worse at enforcing self isolation and quarantine for travellers?
 
4bars said:
As far as I understood, effectiveness on protecting you to get COVID differs depending on the vaccine and variant but all of them protect you 100% against severe illness (AZ included) that is the main goal of these vaccines.
Click to expand...
Is this still true? there is very minimal reporting regarding the numbers who have had to jabs who have got ill. The reports that came out last week said something along the lines of: not many of those who are in hospital have had 2 jabs and some of those have underlining health issues. Which is very vague. Obviously, it leans towards vaccines being very effective(at least against the kent variant) at preventing severe illness but would also imply it's not 100%.
 
Pogue Mahone said:
Yeah, you do make a fair point. I can’t help wondering what other countries got a big influx of travellers from India earlier this year? There must be a few of them around? Why aren’t we hearing about a huge surge of this variant from other countries? Is this because the UK is so much better at generating this sequencing data? Or much worse at enforcing self isolation and quarantine for travellers?
Click to expand...
I would suspect a mixture of the 2. I would also add in that there is a cultural problem in the UK in regards to not paying attention to the quarantine rules.

You add all 3 together and you get a problem
 
Nytram Shakes said:
Is this still true? there is very minimal reporting regarding the numbers who have had to jabs who have got ill. The reports that came out last week said something along the lines of: not many of those who are in hospital have had 2 jabs and some of those have underlining health issues. Which is very vague. Obviously, it leans towards vaccines being very effective(at least against the kent variant) at preventing severe illness but would also imply it's not 100%.
Click to expand...
It isn't. There's plenty of evidence to suggest that in our area.
 
Anecdotal yes but just a bit of reassurance hopefully for the AZ vaccine recipients in here
I've been working at a GP practice, as a clinician for 111 triage and in A&E, haven't admitted anybody so far with severe covid, nor consulted somebody for that matter that turned out to be covid positive who's had two doses of the AstraZeneca vaccine - working in Leicester and Leicestershire - the former a hotspot currently for the Indian variant.
 
Nytram Shakes said:
I would suspect a mixture of the 2. I would also add in that there is a cultural problem in the UK in regards to not paying attention to the quarantine rules.

You add all 3 together and you get a problem
Click to expand...

Where's the evidence to support that? It's a sweeping generalisation
 
Nytram Shakes said:
Yeah it seems like the fact that AZ has been so prominently used in the UK may cause a sticking point going forward. while it’s obviously not ineffective it does seem to be the least effective of the jabs used. It still is predicted to be 60% effective against the Indian variant after too jabs but obviously that’s getting to the levels were its basically a coin toss where it is going to be effective or not. But still a lot better than nothing.
Click to expand...
That 60% number is getting a lot of air time, but it's probably biased by the fact the data was collected closer to the time of the AZ 2nd doses than the Pfizer 2nd doses, on average. Immunity builds over time, so we may well expect the 60% to be revised up in further PHE technical briefings.
 
You must log in or register to reply here.