SARS CoV-2 coronavirus / Covid-19 (No tin foil hat silliness please)

Wow.

60k cases announced today, with 830 deaths!

Surely the case numbers will flatten by the end of the week?
 
Wow.

60k cases announced today, with 830 deaths!

Surely the case numbers will flatten by the end of the week?
I would imagine it would take until next week. People were less likely to get tested during holidays and further restrictions are only starting to have an effect from now.
 
Horrible stats. Feels like it’s going to be like this until next week before we may get to see numbers falling :(
 
It's been 2.5 weeks since London/S.E went into lockdown, and schools had the Xmas holidays so you would hope that transmission had the breaks put on it

It will keep rising until the 2nd/3rd week in January. I'm expecting similar case numbers to what we had back in March (around c100k per day).
 
It will keep rising until the 2nd/3rd week in January. I'm expecting similar case numbers to what we had back in March (around c100k per day).
I doubt you are catching over 50% of the cases so in reality you are already over 100k.
 
ONS are reporting that 1 in 50 households people in the UK had covid between 27th Dec and 2nd Jan. Up by 300k from the week before, where it was 1 in 70.
 
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The sad thing is that you can see from the graphs they are showing that it was clearly going to get worse if they didn't intervene and yet they did nothing during the majority of December
 
Anyone asked why he sent children to school only to shut them yet?
 
ONS are reporting that 1 in 50 households people in the UK had covid between 27th Dec and 2nd Jan. Up by 300k from the week before, where it was 1 in 70.

Christ it reads bad when you put it like that.

I'm fairly sure my missus and i have it at moment. She's got a negative today but catching something during one visit to a supermarket in a covid hotspot seems more likely that its a false negative than a different illness.

Listened to all this Boris presser and i can't think he's said anything of worth.
 
Anyone asked why he sent children to school only to shut them yet?

“Alas, flubble bubble, errr schools errr and important to errr should stay open but waffle toffle the new lockdown is err thank you I hope that answers your question. Yes, Laura next please“
 
Anyone asked why he sent children to school only to shut them yet?

When you think how daft a decision that was it's mind blowing. Having an unnecessary mass household mixing event just before a need for full on lockdown. How many spreader events were caused.
 
When you think how daft a decision that was it's mind blowing. Having an unnecessary mass household mixing event just before a need for full on lockdown. How many spreader events were caused.

It’s almost like they’ve been trying to edge us towards herd immunity without having the balls to admit it.
 
All those graphs they showed ... who is hammering them on why they didn’t act earlier? NOTHING is new in the last few days than since Christmas. And alas instead our journalists ask pointless questions about whether we will have kids in school before summer holidays when obviously no one knows the answer. Instead these questions should be about holding this Eton Mess to account.
 
We're going into hard lockdown in Denmark now because of the English Flu, which is projected to be the dominant strain by February if the curve doesn't break.

Meet 2021. Same as 2020.
 
Any restrictions next winter will likely only a fraction on what we had this time. Possibly limiting household mixing, things like that.

Another lockdown next winter would mean that the vaccine did pretty much feck all.
 
When you think how daft a decision that was it's mind blowing. Having an unnecessary mass household mixing event just before a need for full on lockdown. How many spreader events were caused.

Relatively few. If you take Public Health England's data from the last week of school in December, there were 260 potential outbreaks reported across the enitre week in educational settings, of which 200 were confirmed to have at least 1 case. 227 in care homes, 93 in hospitals, 174 in workplaces and other settings. In a week where 110,000 cases were reported, 200 outbreaks in educational settings is not a lot. And outbreaks at schools are disproportionately likely to be recorded, because they've had their own national school helpline since September to facilitate recording.

Super spreader events are much more likely to happen in other indoor settings with lots of adults, and an absolutely tiny proportion of cases are traced back to super spreader events in school. Super spreader events rely on someone with an exceptionally high viral load that spreads more easily. Kids are the least likely to be that. Household mixing of much smaller numbers in much more locations over Christmas will have had an impact several magnitudes larger, just because of how the disease spreads differently among adults and children.

More on super spreader events and children:

It is notable here that one child infected while displaying symptoms did not transmit the virus when visiting 3 schools.11 Clearly, children are less likely to develop severe complications from the disease, where a significant proportion are asymptomatic/or have subclinical symptoms12 and a meta-analysis shows those <20 years have an odds ratio of 0.56 for being an infected contact compared to those who are older, indicating children are less susceptible compared to adults.14 Evidence suggests children are not the primary source of infection in most household clusters as 9.7% of 31 transmission clusters identified were thought to have children as a paediatric index case.13 Further, transmission between children does not play a vital role in the formation of SSEs with explanations including lower levels of ACE2 present in the nasal epithelium of children compared to adults.

And a later study:

The role of children in the spread of SARS-CoV-2 remains highly controversial. To address this issue, we performed a meta-analysis of the published literature on household SARS-CoV-2 transmission clusters (n=213 from 12 countries). Only 8 (3.8%) transmission clusters were identified as having a paediatric index case. Asymptomatic index cases were associated with a lower secondary attack in contacts than symptomatic index cases (estimate risk ratio [RR], 0.17; 95% confidence interval [CI], 0.09-0.29). To determine the susceptibility of children to household infections the secondary attack rate (SAR) in paediatric household contacts was assessed. The secondary attack rate in paediatric household contacts was lower than in adult household contacts (RR, 0.62; 95% CI, 0.42-0.91). These data have important implications for the ongoing management of the COVID-19 pandemic, including potential vaccine prioritization strategies.

40-word summary In household transmission clusters of SARS-CoV-2 children are unlikely to be the index case. Children are also less likely than adults to be infected with SARS-CoV-2 from a family member.
 
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Can they not just make kids at all levels repeat the year so no one misses out?
I’m sure someone will tell me why that’s a bad idea
 
Meanwhile Sage advisors say children between 12-16 are seven times more likely to bring the virus into households than anybody else.

https://www.google.co.uk/amp/s/inew...in-virus-sage-adviser-mark-walport-815659/amp

He added that the new coronavirus variant is “transmitting more readily in younger age groups”, but does not appear to be more resistant to the vaccine.

“We know that transmission occurs within schools, we know that a person between 12 and 16 is seven times more likely than others in a household to bring the infection into a household.

“We know that there was a small dip in transmission in school children after the half term,” he said.
 
Can they not just make kids at all levels repeat the year so no one misses out?
I’m sure someone will tell me why that’s a bad idea
For these decisions there is a lot of admin and red tape involved. Even though it should be, it isn't simple enough because anyone along the way can pop up and say they disagree with it. You have to get permission from various departments and then a year later Boris implements it for the year after.
 
“Alas, flubble bubble, errr schools errr and important to errr should stay open but waffle toffle the new lockdown is err thank you I hope that answers your question. Yes, Laura next please“

After that, he again said 'schools are safe'
That is his problem. He just doesn't understand what the hell is going on.
 
Have they changed tune recently or am I imagining that they previously said school kids aren't an issue
Various different studies will say various different things. And in fairness to the scientists involved it’s an ever changing picture. That’s why it’s dangerous to state things as fact when it’s anything but.