SARS CoV-2 coronavirus / Covid-19 (No tin foil hat silliness please)

Is this a bad thing, or more an elaboration on last night?
I imagine it will be lots of graphs to back up the decision made last night. It will also make it politically difficult for any Tories to oppose the decision.
 
I have watched Mass online from all over the country since March. Catholic churches aren't empty, no idea how it looks in the CofE.

Since people have been allowed back in the churches, they are sitting apart from each other in the pews, there's no singing, everyone is wearing a mask, the services are kept as short as possible and no-one shakes hands.

There's no sharing of the wine and many priests are distributing the communion wafers as people leave, so they actually don't leave their seats during the service.

At the end of the service you see volunteers wiping down the pews with disinfectant. I don't think they could do much more to stay safe.

Agree with everything you say, would add that there are only two Catholic churches in my area, but only one is being used that is because it has two distinct access points, one being used for entry the other for egress. As for gathering outside, the Curate is on hand (rain or shine) 'masked and sanitized', in the Church yard to hurry people up and break up any tendency to 'congregate' (excuse the pun!).

On Christmas day you had to prior book your pew for Mass using social media. I didnt know this and turned up asking for 'a pew for one' please, which luckily I got, (although I was behind a big stone pillar, couldn't see a thing)

Anyway, there was room at the Inn after all!
 
Yeah, I suppose that was my point. They didn't take the right measures at the right time - that's the assessment now, after the fact. But you also could easily have said they should've taken harsher measures earlier, and many did. It inevitably would've cut transmission more, and prevented more medical harm. That was a valid viewpoint that Merkel and co. had to consider. But they also had to consider the damage of taking harsher measures too early. The damage to the economy and society are obvious, so the government is required to limit that as much as possible, by doing things as late as possible. It's just difficult to know when that is.

Merkel's assessment of "as late as possible" was much earlier than much of Europe's in spring, which led to better case management. But like you say it also got a strong pushback from many citizens and regional governments. It weakened her ability to do that a second time, and it would've changed her calculations somewhat too. Maybe she did things too early, maybe Germany could cope with more, maybe the damage to the economy is too severe. So Merkel's assessment of "as late as possible" in autumn was different to spring, and even right up to November, there was a desire to leave some things open for longer because it was thought that things could be managed as they are.

I don't really think the viewpoint of Merkel herself has changed a lot or even that she tried to do things as late as possible. I think she'd rather lock down as soon as possible; she's been in opposition to the relaxation of restrictions for pretty much the whole duration of the pandemic and she was upset and said as much when the new "lockdown" in November wasn't a proper lockdown. However you're right that she can't really enforce a lockdown against the will of the regional governments and of course of those quite a few did oppose lockdowns and tried to do as little as possible as late as possible which ultimately led to the current situation.

I guess in the end the fact that the she successfully pushed for an early lockdown in March and thus kept the numbers as low as they were led to a great amount of people (including politicians and judges) believing it's not that bad and we have it under control anyway which led to the soft approach in November that failed.
 
Interesting data coming out of Brazil on what unmitigated spread looks like. 76% infected and rising.

Doing the maths on this, applying age specific IFR, the herd immunity strategy some were calling for in the UK would result in >350k dead (and no guarantee of permanent, or even long term, immunity for those infected)

The fact that the epidemic is still raging after 76% of the population have been infected also makes you wonder how on earth this can ever be eradicated.
 
Interesting data coming out of Brazil on what unmitigated spread looks like. 76% infected and rising.

Doing the maths on this, applying age specific IFR, the herd immunity strategy some were calling for in the UK would result in >350k dead (and no guarantee of permanent, or even long term, immunity for those infected)

The fact that the epidemic is still raging after 76% of the population have been infected also makes you wonder how on earth this can ever be eradicated.
I wonder why the death toll in Brazil hasn't been a lot higher? A young population I suppose, but there should still be many millions of older or vulnerable people there?
 
I wonder why the death toll in Brazil hasn't been a lot higher? A young population I suppose, but there should still be many millions of older or vulnerable people there?

Because it's just the Amazon region rather than Brazil as a whole. As per the abstract: This is higher than in São Paulo, in southeastern Brazil, where the estimated attack rate in October is 29%.
 
Yep, in relation to the comparison though, most will get the AZ vaccine just because of the storage requirements ie. stored in a normal fridge, where Pfizer needs -70 degree storage before it's opened. So the approach of one dose on AZ now and 12 weeks later makes the most sense to me given that it'll be the critical mass vaccine.
Maybe, but they are administering Pfizer vaccines with those longer delays too.

Pfizer and BioNtech have advised against the UK government policy. How many scientists are the government going to ignore so they can play politics just so they can announce higher numbers of people given the jab? No point if it is ineffective.

https://www.independent.co.uk/news/health/covid-vaccine-pfizer-second-dose-b1782467.html
 
Maybe, but they are administering Pfizer vaccines with those longer delays too.

They're issuing guidance on longer delays, where are they administering this though? My other half's sister & brother in law have their second Pfizer jabs lined up for next week at Wythenshawe.

Pfizer and BioNtech have advised against the UK government policy. How many scientists are the government going to ignore so they can play politics just so they can announce higher numbers of people given the jab? No point if it is ineffective.

https://www.independent.co.uk/news/health/covid-vaccine-pfizer-second-dose-b1782467.html

The JCVI has recommended the guidance the 12 weeks gap for both vaccines to the government. How many scientists? Well this is the JCVI below, or are you saying that these scientists are playing politics?
  • Professor Andrew Pollard, Chair (University of Oxford)
  • Professor Wei Shen Lim, Chair COVID-19 immunisation (Nottingham University Hospitals)
  • Professor Anthony Harnden, Deputy Chair (University of Oxford)
  • Professor Judith Breuer (University College Hospital)
  • Dr Peter Elton (Greater Manchester, Lancashire, South Cumbria Strategic Clinical Network)
  • Dr Maggie Wearmouth (East Sussex Healthcare NHS Trust)
  • Professor Matt Keeling (University of Warwick)
  • Alison Lawrence (lay member)
  • Professor Robert Read (Southampton General Hospital)
  • Professor Anthony Scott (London School of Hygiene & Tropical Medicine)
  • Professor Adam Finn (University of Bristol)
  • Dr Fiona van der Klis (National Institute for Public Health and the Environment, Netherlands)
  • Professor Maarten Postma (University of Groningen)
  • Professor Simon Kroll (Imperial College London)
  • Dr Martin Williams (University Hospitals Bristol)
  • Professor Jeremy Brown (University College London Hospitals
 
They're issuing guidance on longer delays, where are they administering this though? My other half's sister & brother in law have their second Pfizer jabs lined up for next week at Wythenshawe.



The JCVI has recommended the guidance the 12 weeks gap for both vaccines to the government. How many scientists? Well this is the JCVI below, or are you saying that these scientists are playing politics?
  • Professor Andrew Pollard, Chair (University of Oxford)
  • Professor Wei Shen Lim, Chair COVID-19 immunisation (Nottingham University Hospitals)
  • Professor Anthony Harnden, Deputy Chair (University of Oxford)
  • Professor Judith Breuer (University College Hospital)
  • Dr Peter Elton (Greater Manchester, Lancashire, South Cumbria Strategic Clinical Network)
  • Dr Maggie Wearmouth (East Sussex Healthcare NHS Trust)
  • Professor Matt Keeling (University of Warwick)
  • Alison Lawrence (lay member)
  • Professor Robert Read (Southampton General Hospital)
  • Professor Anthony Scott (London School of Hygiene & Tropical Medicine)
  • Professor Adam Finn (University of Bristol)
  • Dr Fiona van der Klis (National Institute for Public Health and the Environment, Netherlands)
  • Professor Maarten Postma (University of Groningen)
  • Professor Simon Kroll (Imperial College London)
  • Dr Martin Williams (University Hospitals Bristol)
  • Professor Jeremy Brown (University College London Hospitals

Germany are looking at doing the same I read earlier.
 
With all we know about the virus now there’s no way that spacing people out and wearing masks can guarantee safety. They’re putting the most vulnerable people from different households indoors together, for a long period of time. This won’t end well. They should absolutely stop in-person services.

I don't really think churches need to be open for communal service - they were shut in the first lockdown and during November, without much fuss. Everyone is making sacrifices across the board.

But this still sounds alarmist - if this new strain can be transmitted efficiently in roughly 45 minutes indoors even with masks and social distancing enforced, then I'm not sure we have much of a hope anyway with the current form of lockdown. Anyone working in manufacturing, retail (or basically anything still open) is going to have a lot more prolonged exposure to their colleagues on a daily basis.
 
I don't really think churches need to be open for communal service - they were shut in the first lockdown and during November, without much fuss. Everyone is making sacrifices across the board.

But this still sounds alarmist - if this new strain can be transmitted efficiently in roughly 45 minutes indoors even with masks and social distancing enforced, then I'm not sure we have much of a hope anyway with the current form of lockdown. Anyone working in manufacturing, retail (or basically anything still open) is going to have a lot more prolonged exposure to their colleagues on a daily basis.

And we should only keep people physically present at work in manufacturing and retail when this is absolutely necessary. With an even more cautious approach necessary if they were the same age as the average church-goer. And we all know that attending church in person is not absolutely necessary. I know it’s hard for some people but with sacrifices being made all round this seems like one of the most obvious ones.
 
So you would prefer the current incapable, inept and incompetent people continuing to make mistake after mistake would you??

No, my point is I agree with him. Blair may be a war criminal but hes also competent, and using people who are competent rather than this current shower is how we end this.
 
And we should only keep people physically present at work in manufacturing and retail when this is absolutely necessary. With an even more cautious approach necessary if they were the same age as the average church-goer. And we all know that attending church in person is not absolutely necessary. I know it’s hard for some people but with sacrifices being made all round this seems like one of the most obvious ones.

Wouldn't work for manufacturers who produce exports, which many do. You'd see businesses dry up when their clients move to different global suppliers in countries less affected.

Retail is a different matter of course.
 
I'm not religious but my family go to two CofE churches, one local with a mixed age congregation and one very large and vibrant with predominantly young people. Both have been closed for months.


Me dad has been watching out local Mass online for ages. I turned it on last week or of curiosity and was surprised to see people there.
 
I hear people saying this lockdown is to March but was this actually confirmed by Boris?
 
And we should only keep people physically present at work in manufacturing and retail when this is absolutely necessary. With an even more cautious approach necessary if they were the same age as the average church-goer. And we all know that attending church in person is not absolutely necessary. I know it’s hard for some people but with sacrifices being made all round this seems like one of the most obvious ones.
i've got admit i've had a bit of a rant about the church situation today. One of my colleagues, expressed concern about going out to a job tomorrow due to the lockdown, he has a vulnerable wife and is scared wants to protect her. We all 100% agreed and rearranged everything to make him ensure he and his family are protected as much as possible. Now what has irritated me is also he also helps out in a church looking after the live music side of their events. which involves a level of mingling with musicians and not to mention the congregation, other church workers. He has no plans to stop this during the lockdown and is even taking Thursday afternoon off to organise Sundays service.

For me this feels like having your cake and eating it a bit, its 100% ok if don't feel safe because of the virus and workplaces should support and protect people. Put if people then go swanning off mingling with people because of there religious beliefs that is not ok.
 
Wouldn't work for manufacturers who produce exports, which many do. You'd see businesses dry up when their clients move to different global suppliers in countries less affected.

Retail is a different matter of course.

That's a consequence of a proper lock-down - short term loss of business. If kids are expected to bounce back from losing another term of school, I'm sure our manufacturers can bounce back from temporarily shutting down, or going to a skeleton staff, so that people can actually stay at home.
 
? The number in brackets is cases per 100K isn’t it? So 600-800. Which incidentally is less than here in London :lol: feck sakes.
The thing where I live is in the last week the infection rate has gone up by 310% the worst on that American chart was 98%. I know I'm talking a much smaller sample size but there are areas around mine that are significantly higher than mine.
 
That's a consequence of a proper lock-down - short term loss of business. If kids are expected to bounce back from losing another term of school, I'm sure our manufacturers can bounce back from temporarily shutting down, or going to a skeleton staff, so that people can actually stay at home.

Comparing the loss of business to a curriculum catch up is naive. Business demand just moves elsewhere. It's a difficult thing to balance, but some tax revenue needs to be coming into the exchequer. The discussion should be around safe working environments rather than wholesale furlough because it's too difficult to adapt.
 
I hear people saying this lockdown is to March but was this actually confirmed by Boris?

Mr Gove said: “We can’t predict with certainty that we’ll be able to lift restrictions the week commencing February 15 to 22.

“What we will be doing is everything we can to make sure that as many people as possible are vaccinated so that we can begin progressively to lift restrictions.

“I think it’s right to say that, as we enter March, we should be able to lift some of these restrictions – but not necessarily all.”
 
Germany are looking at doing the same I read earlier.

USA are looking at halving the Moderna dosage now as well.

Denmark have got off to an absolute flier with their vaccination program too. Proof that being an EU member shouldn’t hinder rapid roll-out.

Great to see, I'm not so close to Denmark admittedly, but is it down to public confidence, or geographical footprint (in terms of distribution)?
 
They are running out of glass containers to put the vaccine in? That's a new one
 
Comparing the loss of business to a curriculum catch up is naive. Business demand just moves elsewhere. It's a difficult thing to balance, but some tax revenue needs to be coming into the exchequer. The discussion should be around safe working environments rather than wholesale furlough because it's too difficult to adapt.

We know that there have been outbreaks in multiple factories - mainly, but not exclusively, food processing plants making essential things like Haribo, Tunnocks Tea Cakes and KP nuts. If a 6 week drop in production is going to put them out of business, there's something more wrong with their product.
 
That's a consequence of a proper lock-down - short term loss of business. If kids are expected to bounce back from losing another term of school, I'm sure our manufacturers can bounce back from temporarily shutting down, or going to a skeleton staff, so that people can actually stay at home.

That's a bit naive I feel as business doesn't bounce back that quickly. It's a really fine line to get the balance right otherwise the effects will be worse.

Also manufacturing has already decreased staff from what I'm told (family member). I was also told that there's a lot of rigour in keeping safe apart and using PPE, which surprised me if I'm being honest. Though this will be dependent on the business as I've also been told the exact opposite by others.
 
We know that there have been outbreaks in multiple factories - mainly, but not exclusively, food processing plants making essential things like Haribo, Tunnocks Tea Cakes and KP nuts. If a 6 week drop in production is going to put them out of business, there's something more wrong with their product.

I'm guessing you've never dealt with a supermarket then? A 6 week break in production, even for the mere old Tea Cake, carries huge penalties.
 
i've got admit i've had a bit of a rant about the church situation today. One of my colleagues, expressed concern about going out to a job tomorrow due to the lockdown, he has a vulnerable wife and is scared wants to protect her. We all 100% agreed and rearranged everything to make him ensure he and his family are protected as much as possible. Now what has irritated me is also he also helps out in a church looking after the live music side of their events. which involves a level of mingling with musicians and not to mention the congregation, other church workers. He has no plans to stop this during the lockdown and is even taking Thursday afternoon off to organise Sundays service.

For me this feels like having your cake and eating it a bit, its 100% ok if don't feel safe because of the virus and workplaces should support and protect people. Put if people then go swanning off mingling with people because of there religious beliefs that is not ok.
I have zero sympathy for people like that
 
That's a bit naive I feel as business doesn't bounce back that quickly. It's a really fine line to get the balance right otherwise the effects will be worse.

Also manufacturing has already decreased staff from what I'm told (family member). I was also told that there's a lot of rigour in keeping safe apart and using PPE, which surprised me if I'm being honest. Though this will be dependent on the business as I've also been told the exact opposite by others.

It's weird, I'm sure I've heard this line before from paediatricians and child development specialists.
 
So NHS vaccination seems to be springing into life outside of just the hospitals, my other half has had three band 5 staff pulled from her team today (they are community based) so they can be redeployed for vaccinations for the foreseeable.
 
i've got admit i've had a bit of a rant about the church situation today. One of my colleagues, expressed concern about going out to a job tomorrow due to the lockdown, he has a vulnerable wife and is scared wants to protect her. We all 100% agreed and rearranged everything to make him ensure he and his family are protected as much as possible. Now what has irritated me is also he also helps out in a church looking after the live music side of their events. which involves a level of mingling with musicians and not to mention the congregation, other church workers. He has no plans to stop this during the lockdown and is even taking Thursday afternoon off to organise Sundays service.

For me this feels like having your cake and eating it a bit, its 100% ok if don't feel safe because of the virus and workplaces should support and protect people. Put if people then go swanning off mingling with people because of there religious beliefs that is not ok.
No church should be having musicians and singing. It's absolutely not necessary at this time, but I know it's a big feature in some of the evangelical churches. You can easily have just a half-hour service or even shorter, the priests are managing it every Sunday.