SARS CoV-2 coronavirus / Covid-19 (No tin foil hat silliness please)

Thanks for that Penna but the police round here aren`t following up on minor issues , only seem to be interested in large parties . An old guy I used to work for reported a family staying in a holiday home near his house and the police phoned him and said they could only do something if they caught them arriving. It is no wonder it keeps happening.
What a weird response
 
The most populated county in South Carolina just posted a 46.7% positive test rate.

The school district that serves that county announced today that it’s going back to school on January 4th at as scheduled. Elementary and Middle schools at 100% capacity, high schools at 50% and moving to 75% in 2 weeks.


 
Mine are 4 and 7

They need to be in school

But it was school that made the difference. As soon as should went back R was > than 1.0 and had been ever since.

And despite what some might say I don't believe for a second that the government understood the difference schools going back was going to make
I don't think that was just about schools though. A whole bunch of things happened in September. Colleges going back. People returning to offices. Gyms and (in most of the country) pubs and restaurants not only open but with must customers heading back indoors. Cinemas and theatres etc were operating. Other things were getting going again - places of worship, some face to face support groups, and parent/baby groups etc.

A lot of changes compared to the original closures that happened more or less at once - or that moved indoors, or gained popularity as people saw schools open etc and read it as "getting back to normal".

I don't think the government underestimated schools as such. They even said it would mean that something else might have to close (and then closed nothing)

I think they underestimated the weather and ignored just how difficult it is to keep bars, schools, workplaces simultaneously warm and well ventilated.

I think they also underestimated the message of "business as usual" that the schools and colleges etc reopening sends. Plus, if people rely on friends/family to pick up the kids after school then almost inevitably they'll start to sit and drinpk coffee together, or have a meal together or whatever - the fences come down and are hard to put back. Especially once the weather deteriorates.
 
I don't think that was just about schools though. A whole bunch of things happened in September. Colleges going back. People returning to offices. Gyms and (in most of the country) pubs and restaurants not only open but with must customers heading back indoors. Cinemas and theatres etc were operating. Other things were getting going again - places of worship, some face to face support groups, and parent/baby groups etc.

For the most part they'd been reopened from July, which was almost 1.5 - 2 months before September. The main things which can be pinpointed as new to September were schools and universities reopening. The latter would have probably had a big effect too, but at least a lot of learning has been taken online.
 
in all seriousness, perhaps the police have better things to do than go and see a family with 2.4 children at a holiday cottage.

not saying it’s acceptable, but the police have limited resources, which can be spent elsewhere.

In theory crime should be down massively with everyone staying in their homes and people not socialising. That's probably not going to be the case at all which will be the issue for the police.

I guess home calls are higher than usual.
 
Is this your terrorism point from yesterday?
Just learned about this a couple of hours ago.

Didn’t expect a medical professional to be the one to be engaged in acts of lunacy such as this. I expected such acts from right wing nut jobs, although there’s a good possibility that the pharmacist fits into that category & shirked off his duties as a medical professional & engaged in an act like this that could be considered terroristic.
 
Just learned about this a couple of hours ago.

Didn’t expect a medical professional to be the one to be engaged in acts of lunacy such as this. I expected such acts from right wing nut jobs, although there’s a good possibility that the pharmacist fits into that category & shirked off his duties as a medical professional & engaged in an act like this that could be considered terroristic.

I jest, however it doesn't surprise me in America.
 
Yep, that is why people ignore restrictions .
The whole point of the restrictions is that it's not just about preventing big parties or raves - everyone is a potential virus spreader, so what single families or individuals choose to do is also important.

If the police won't act on repeated and blatant rule-flouting, there's no point having any penalties at all. The police force is in a parlous state in the UK if it's so under-staffed.
 
The whole point of the restrictions is that it's not just about preventing big parties or raves - everyone is a potential virus spreader, so what single families or individuals choose to do is also important.

If the police won't act on repeated and blatant rule-flouting, there's no point having any penalties at all. The police force is in a parlous state in the UK if it's so under-staffed.
Happy New Year Penna. Yes, understaffed police and selfish people . Neighbours have all just piled out of the car after last night's party.
 
In theory crime should be down massively with everyone staying in their homes and people not socialising. That's probably not going to be the case at all which will be the issue for the police.

I guess home calls are higher than usual.
Yeah police get called to deal with domestics all the time.
 
To be honest there's no way police can oversee every family and residence. Like many other laws, these restrictions rely on people's self-discipline and morality. Unfortunately, many lack the knowledge and awareness in this pandemic. The lack of appropriate guidance from a credible international organization and fake news do not do any favor at all.
 
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Anyone find it mildly irritating how on social media people are making out that the virus is magically going to decide to go away when the calendar changed to 2021? Saying they're so happy 2020 is gone, celebrating now etc. We've still got a long way to go considering we're hitting the peak of another wave just now.
 
Happy New Year to you too, and I hope this year is good to you. x
Thanks Penna, same to you, I just hope the elderly more vulnerable can get a bit of protection as seeing my in laws stuck at home since March is horrible.
 
So Imperial have revised their estimates on the increased transmissibility of the new strain, but doubled down on the conclusion that it is the strain itself that is more transmissible. No more headlines of “increases R rate by 0.9” but they still think it falls within the 0.4 to 0.7 range. Which is a pretty serious concern.

https://www.google.co.uk/amp/s/www....covid-19-variant-growing-rapidly-england/amp/
 
So Imperial have revised their estimates on the increased transmissibility of the new strain, but doubled down on the conclusion that it is the strain itself that is more transmissible. No more headlines of “increases R rate by 0.9” but they still think it falls within the 0.4 to 0.7 range. Which is a pretty serious concern.

https://www.google.co.uk/amp/s/www....covid-19-variant-growing-rapidly-england/amp/

All the epidemiological modelling is waaaaaay over my head but this proviso is still being mentioned.

These higher infection levels took place despite the high levels of social distancing in England. Extrapolation to other transmission contexts requires caution, the researchers note.

They’re still working on the assumption that “high levels of social distancing” were in place in the run up to Christmas. I find that a bit of a stretch, to put it mildly. Remove that assumption and it’s possible the whole house of cards falls down.
 
All the epidemiological modelling is waaaaaay over my head but this proviso is still being mentioned.



They’re still working on the assumption that “high levels of social distancing” were in place in the run up to Christmas. I find that a bit of a stretch, to put it mildly. Remove that assumption and it’s possible the whole house of cards falls down.
It is spreading faster than any other variant in all the regions in England. And it doesn't get to that dominant in London by chance anyway (well anything is possible with probabilities but less than 1% chance). There is no debate anymore if it is more transmissable. It is. And those levels seem reasonable.
 
It is spreading faster than any other variant in all the regions in England. And it doesn't get to that dominant in London by chance anyway (well anything is possible with probabilities but less than 1% chance). There is no debate anymore if it is more transmissable. It is. And those levels seem reasonable.

After I posted that I found a report that I could actually understand. It gives a secondary attack rate of 15% vs 9.9%. Which is about a 50% increase in transmissibility. Feck.
 
After I posted that I found a report that I could actually understand. It gives a secondary attack rate of 15% vs 9.9%. Which is about a 50% increase in transmissibility. Feck.
Yeah, sucks. I am not sure tier 4 is enough to even plateau the numbers. Doubt they are coming down. Probably needs March like real lock-down. And nobody should leave UK for the next 1-2 months unless absolutely necessary for work. It has of course spread already all over Europe, but less cases imported from UK the better.
 
The most surprising part of the u-turn is that they still haven’t fully done it to include secondary schools yet.i assume this will come in a few more days.
 


What kind of feckwit needs to ask that question?

They locked down hard and they locked down for a long time. With 100% compliance throughout.

Helped by the sort of infringement of civil liberties that would have the likes of Alison Pearson shitting bricks.

EDIT: I see the twitter thread you linked to has beaten me to the punch here!
 
Day 5 of isolation for us. The missus tested positive after we were both a bit rough over Xmas. It’s hit her way harder than me, she’s slept 12-14 hours each day on and off.
Feels like we’re climbing the walls, but we know it’s what we have to do.
 
Day 5 of isolation for us. The missus tested positive after we were both a bit rough over Xmas. It’s hit her way harder than me, she’s slept 12-14 hours each day on and off.
Feels like we’re climbing the walls, but we know it’s what we have to do.
Take care jimble, hope you both recover quickly
 
feckin hell. Well, I guess being married to a Covid nurse and having to teach & coach through this, I should expect to have a few scares of Covid and all... but it still does get nerve wracking.

As of about Noon today, I've lost all sense of smell. I've also got some pain in my sinuses and a general tired feeling all over.

But out of nowhere, I can't smell a single damn thing.