SARS CoV-2 coronavirus / Covid-19 (No tin foil hat silliness please)

F-Red said:
https://www.manchestereveningnews.c...ter-news/non-urgent-care-still-pause-19539079 - they're reporting rises here.

Case rates aren't declining, they're increasing as a total. It would be foolish to keep Greater Manchester in Tier 3. Admission data for last week is patchy at best due to Christmas reporting.
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So why was London kept in 2 for so long previously?

By putting the whole of the NW into 4 you're saying the issue in that region is equal to London and the South; its not.

Can't see the point in this 'system' when there really isn't anything logical about it.
 
Are they going to create a vaccine for children, or use this one? I noticed they said they have enough supply for all "adults" in the UK, suggesting children haven't been factored in, what about this new variant they're more susceptible to?
 
F-Red said:
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Today's death numbers might be some backdating and hospital admissions did fall down until the end of Nov, so with the lag they will look like they have reduced day on day at this moment but throughout Dec admissions have crept up and today is the highest with 2.5k admitted and patients on vents have surpassed the peak in Nov.

Unless the recent large case amounts of 50k and hospital admissions are skewing younger I can only see regular large death numbers in the coming weeks.

Going to look pretty bad for the UK gov as this new strain rips through. Other countries will be vaccinated by the time it can take over.
 
Shouldn’t the entirety of England be in the same tier? It’s not like your country is huge or you have vast swaths of land that isn’t populated. Your country is a bit small, it seems a bit silly to think that there are potentially pockets that would be able to withstand this surge upon a surge.

Seems a bit weird to keep small parts of it able to still have the public interact somewhat, especially after all we’ve seen about this virus & its impact.
 
TheReligion said:
So why was London kept in 2 for so long previously?
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No idea, question for the government. It should have been in a higher tier in early December, but I'm guessing their hospital capacity across the region is far greater, and case rates in the over 60s might have been lower.

TheReligion said:
By putting the whole of the NW into 4 you're saying the issue in that region is equal to London and the South; its not.

Can't see the point in this 'system' when there really isn't anything logical about it.
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I'm not saying anything is equal. You have to look at each area in isolation of others, to insinuate that the case rate is stable (which it isn't, it's rising) and therefore the tier system should remain is flawed logic. Critical care cases have increased 30% in Greater Manchester in the last fortnight. Combine the impact of Christmas day mixing, which will probably be seen in early January, and it doesn't make any logical sense to keep Greater Manchester in the same tier, when all the signs are saying that it's going to be a shit storm in a few weeks.
 
redshaw said:
Today's death numbers might be some backdating and hospital admissions did fall down until the end of Nov, so with the lag they will look like they have reduced day on day at this moment but throughout Dec admissions have crept up and today is the highest with 2.5k admitted and patients on vents have surpassed the peak in Nov.

Unless the recent large case amounts of 50k and hospital admissions are skewing younger I can only see regular large death numbers in the coming weeks.

Going to look pretty bad for the UK gov as this new strain rips through. Other countries will be vaccinated by the time it can take over.
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Will they be vaccinated though? Europe is having issues it seems and barely has enough with countries now buying their own but there will be a delay on when they get it. Canada and US are a going through vaccination but also the US is still seeing high numbers.

This strain is out there already and we're all seeing high numbers.

Australia/NZ and I imagine a lot of Asia where they have low cases are OK only
 
What's the betting idiots still have house parties tomorrow? Wonder if that's another reason they've chucked most areas into tier 4, as in the lower tiers couldn't you meet a couple of people in the garden?
 
Stactix said:
*Schools are safe*

hahahahahaha.
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How can he say this with a straight face? OK, he actually didn't but how can restaurants and pubs be deemed unsafe despite all the rules and precautions they’ve put in place, but schools - where kids will be kids - are fine!?
 
redshaw said:
Today's death numbers might be some backdating and hospital admissions did fall down until the end of Nov, so with the lag they will look like they have reduced day on day at this moment but throughout Dec admissions have crept up and today is the highest with 2.5k admitted and patients on vents have surpassed the peak in Nov.

Unless the recent large case amounts of 50k and hospital admissions are skewing younger I can only see regular large death numbers in the coming weeks.

Going to look pretty bad for the UK gov as this new strain rips through. Other countries will be vaccinated by the time it can take over.
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No, UK is leading the way by a mile: over 800,000 people already vaccinated I think against 78,000 in Germany for example.

France will really start next Monday.
 
calodo2003 said:
Shouldn’t the entirety of England be in the same tier? It’s not like your country is huge or you have vast swaths of land that isn’t populated. Your country is a bit small, it seems a bit silly to think that there are potentially pockets that would be able to withstand this surge upon a surge.

Seems a bit weird to keep small parts of it able to still have the public interact somewhat, especially after all we’ve seen about this virus & its impact.
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It's small but some areas are relatively sparsely-populated. For instance, some cities still have hundreds of thousands of people living in Victorian/Edwardian terraced (row) housing, some areas have none of that. It's something to do with being an "old" country and the legacy of the industrial heritage.

When tourists come to England, they don't see those parts of it, on the whole. I lived in West Yorkshire for a number of years, and every little house around me was crammed full of large families.
 
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Penna said:
It's small but some areas are relatively sparsely-populated. For instance, some cities still have hundreds of thousands of people living in Victorian/Edwardian terraced (row) housing, some areas have none of that. It's something to do with being an "old" country and the legacy of the industrial heritage.

When tourists come to England, they don't see those parts of it, on the whole.
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But there’s no hidden pockets that could possibly be isolated from the virus for any appreciable amount of time, is there? Even here, with vast stretches of isolation, the virus is everywhere; there’s not a location that is spared. Just cannot fathom that a place exists in England (or any part of the UK) that could hold out.
 
Volumiza said:
I get you, and there’s not one post of mine absolving the government for their decision making, not one, and me putting blame largely on people does not constitute me defending the government. I am just saying I feel more annoyed with the behaviour of people disregarding masks, social distancing and restrictions that we all know exist than I do with the government.

Boris has been dreadful. He’s a good times Prime Minister and in this situation we need someone who isn’t scared of making big decisions that will make people unhappy. I know this, most on here know this but that doesn’t mean that we, or any other people should not wear masks, should flout social distancing or meet with multiple other households as I’ve been seeing with my own eyes.

We know what we should be doing in essence. We do. Most of us are doing this and I’m pretty sure it’s not people like me that is causing the spread of this virus. It is the people who are flouting the rules that we all know we should be abiding by regardless of the mixed messaging.

I would never have relaxed the restrictions for 5 days over Christmas. I’d have looked at the numbers In late November and early December and told people Christmas isn’t happening. It was clear we would have to curtail Christmas so my family made arrangements accordingly. Someone on here earlier gave a ‘can I?’ ‘Should I?’ scenario, so ‘Boris says I can relax over Christmas’ but anyone with a grain of sense actually thought ‘hmmm, I can, but should I?’

Same with holidays. ‘I can’ but actually ‘should I?’. I’ve not even thought about booking a holiday. I think it’s stupid.

Boris stupidly said everyone could relax, so what, if someone stupid tells you to do something stupid, you do it?

I live somewhere where a lot of people gather. I don’t moan about this, I’m lucky to live here and acknowledge that but it does give me a good view into the world right now and there are a heck of a lot of very stupid and selfish people living in it that clearly don’t care about catching or transmitting the virus. These are the focus of my annoyance and anger, not the government. The government are just doing a bad job.
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I understand and think we are on the same page.

I'm in the tricky situation of having moved my holiday that should have been June 2020 to June 2021. I don't think we will be vaccinated by then so am unsure what to do, if the holiday companies would allow me to just cancel I would but having spoken to them before Christmas they want the full £4,000 unless they are forced to cancel. Very frustrating.
 
calodo2003 said:
Shouldn’t the entirety of England be in the same tier? It’s not like your country is huge or you have vast swaths of land that isn’t populated. Your country is a bit small, it seems a bit silly to think that there are potentially pockets that would be able to withstand this surge upon a surge.

Seems a bit weird to keep small parts of it able to still have the public interact somewhat, especially after all we’ve seen about this virus & its impact.
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As it not popular for politicians to say there is a new national lockdown so the idea could be to
- say the situation is critical in some parts of the country only, condition public opinion and then apply the same strict rules to the whole country later; or
- apply a form of national lockdown at 75% from a geographical standpoint

Also, a sophisticated tier system look very serious. If you apply the same rules for the whole country, then some will argue that some areas are really safe, etc.

The key point is that it is easier to sell a hybrid or disguised national lockdown. France for instance implements a curfew from 6pm to 6am in some geographical areas, 8pm to 6am in other areas.
 
Ecstatic said:
No, UK is leading the way by a mile: over 800,000 people already vaccinated I think against 78,000 in Germany for example.

France will really start next Monday.
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LARulz said:
Will they be vaccinated though? Europe is having issues it seems and barely has enough with countries now buying their own but there will be a delay on when they get it. Canada and US are a going through vaccination but also the US is still seeing high numbers.

This strain is out there already and we're all seeing high numbers.

Australia/NZ and I imagine a lot of Asia where they have low cases are OK only
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Depends on how long it takes to even take hold of other countries, spread wildly and then the lag of deaths, that's 3-4 months.

You also have to take into account the vast majority of deaths are over 65. A good amount or nearly all could be vaccinated by that time or at least the most vulnerable in that category.
 
calodo2003 said:
But there’s no hidden pockets that could possibly be isolated from the virus for any appreciable amount of time, is there? Even here, with vast stretches of isolation, the virus is everywhere; there’s not a location that is spared. Just cannot fathom that a place exists in England (or any part of the UK) that could hold out.
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The virus is everywhere in England, too. It's just that the demographics of some places make it likely to spread far more rapidly. My hometown is a small seaside town which is packed in the summer but not in the winter. It also has a high percentage of older people who will be far less likely to be going out. Only 15 miles away there's the big city of Liverpool with a completely different demographic - a city people commute to every day, many more young people, loads of students and more poverty.
 
redshaw said:
Depends on how long it takes to even take hold of other countries, spread wildly and then the lag of deaths, that's 3-4 months.

You also have to take into account the vast majority of deaths are over 65. A good amount or nearly all could be vaccinated by that time or at least the most vulnerable in that category.
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Why would it take 3-4 months? A lot of countries are seeing big spikes already and are now playing catch up with the strain they didn't know existed till a few weeks ago.

Also again, I think, even if it did take 3-4 months. Look how slow the rollout is in many of these other countries and they all have a supply problem, they are all in a queue to receive it. For once we seem to have an advantage with this Oxford one - ordered in bulk first, approved it first and made here
 
Ecstatic said:
As it not popular for politicians to say there is a new national lockdown so the idea could be to
- say the situation is critical in some parts of the country, condition public opinion and then apply the same rules to the whole country; or
- apply a form of national lockdown at 75% from a geographical standpoint

Also, a sophisticated tier system look very serious. If you apply the same rules for the whole country, then some will argue this countryside is safe, etc.

The key point is that it is easier to sell a hybrid national lockdown. France for instance will say there is a curfew from 6pm to 6am in some geographical areas
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But, what are the current punitive measures for breaking lockdown? If none, what’s to fuel the selfishness of people to populate those less-restricted areas?

We’re past the point of worrying about ‘selling a lockdown’ to the selfish masses. If these lockdowns aren’t punitive in measure, especially financially to lockdown breakers, the government is going to keep perpetuating the problem. This is where I blame the government. We are right now, at this point in time, suffering from the selfishness of others (well, y’all are in the UK in this case, we are just suffering from not having a federal government response to covid at the present). Governments failed early on by not being tough enough & waffling after, bookended by an apparent measure that probably won’t be strict enough again. But, this current spike on a spike in most worldwide countries shows that people cannot be trusted to do what’s best for the common good, wherever they live. If governments fail again by being too weak, the problem only gets exacerbated.
 
Penna said:
The virus is everywhere in England, too. It's just that the demographics of some places make it likely to spread far more rapidly. My hometown is a small seaside town which is packed in the summer but not in the winter. It also has a high percentage of older people who will be far less likely to be going out. Only 15 miles away there's the big city of Liverpool with a completely different demographic - a city people commute to every day, many more young people, loads of students and more poverty.
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That’s what I mean. Your hometown is only twenty minutes away from a bustling metropolis. It’s a little Pollyannaish at this point to think that, even in the dead of winter, that Liverpool wouldn’t have any negative viral impact on a town that could be considered a suburb due to proximity.

Unless a true lockdown with punitive measures is actually enforced.
 
redshaw said:
Depends on how long it takes to even take hold of other countries, spread wildly and then the lag of deaths, that's 3-4 months.

You also have to take into account the vast majority of deaths are over 65. A good amount or nearly all could be vaccinated by that time or at least the most vulnerable in that category.
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You are vastly overrating how the vaccination progress is progressing. There will be few places on earth that will hit their vaccination timing projections. It’s not as simple as churning out new vials, that could ultimately be one of the easiest steps in the process. It’s the steps & machinations that start immediately after the vaccines are produced that will be the true culprit in how slow the mass vaccinations will progress. Reality sets in. Hell, I can’t wait til we hear about the first terrorist attack on a step of the vaccination process, these should start any week now.

It’s going to be unhealthy mentally to continue to count on vaccinations.
 
Mickeza said:
“Schools are safe. The issue is the mix of different households that take place in schools.” - That’s some yes minister level satire from Boris there.
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Absolutely ridiculous statement. It’s not like we think it’s the building that’s unsafe - it’s the school environment and inevitable mixing.

Almost as annoying as JVT when he equated to a vaccinated pensioner wishing to hug their grandchildren to wanting to act with wild abandon
 
calodo2003 said:
But, what are the current punitive measures for breaking lockdown? If none, what’s to fuel the selfishness of people to populate those less-restricted areas?

We’re past the point of worrying about ‘selling a lockdown’ to the selfish masses. If these lockdowns aren’t punitive in measure, especially financially to lockdown breakers, the government is going to keep perpetuating the problem. This is where I blame the government. We are right now, at this point in time, suffering from the selfishness of others (well, y’all are in the UK in this case, we are just suffering from not having a federal government response to covid at the present). Governments failed early on by not being tough enough & waffling after, bookended by an apparent measure that probably won’t be strict enough again. But, this current spike on a spike in most worldwide countries shows that people cannot be trusted to do what’s best for the common good, wherever they live. If governments fail again by being too weak, the problem only gets exacerbated.
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In the UK, it seems relatively easy to travel, break lockdown without being punished, unless you organize a very noisy big party. I don't think there is a lot of fined people. Not mandatory to wear masks outside unless I am mistaken.


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In France, the police does the job with more that 1 million of fines during the same period
 
calodo2003 said:
Hell, I can’t wait til we hear about the first terrorist attack on a step of the vaccination process, these should start any week now.

It’s going to be unhealthy mentally to continue to count on vaccinations.
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Yes, we should definitely adopt your healthy approach to this.
 
LARulz said:
Why would it take 3-4 months? A lot of countries are seeing big spikes already and are now playing catch up with the strain they didn't know existed till a few weeks ago.

Also again, I think, even if it did take 3-4 months. Look how slow the rollout is in many of these other countries and they all have a supply problem, they are all in a queue to receive it. For once we seem to have an advantage with this Oxford one - ordered in bulk first, approved it first and made here
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I'm not seeing any large spikes in France Belgium or Italy yet, just normal activity, you will see normal rises from existing strains from Christmas. Why it takes that long is it has to become the dominant strain first, that took a while here, then it has to spread wildly for a few weeks, then around 3-4 weeks after that the deaths start mounting up. That's if it becomes the dominant strain in many said countries even, we won't know if this is ripping through France or Belgium for a long while yet. UK from the south east and beyond is an inferno right now.

They can also know what to look for and can put extra tracing effort into any UK strain found plus bans on travel already in place to minimize new entrants.
 
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calodo2003 said:
That’s what I mean. Your hometown is only twenty minutes away from a bustling metropolis. It’s a little Pollyannaish at this point to think that, even in the dead of winter, that Liverpool wouldn’t have any negative viral impact on a town that could be considered a suburb due to proximity.

Unless a true lockdown with punitive measures is actually enforced.
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Well, we don't live there for more than about a month a year now, so I don't know how it feels "on the ground" - but I do agree with your point about very tough restrictions and enforcement, having experienced that in Italy. The enforcement won't happen though, because the police don't work that way in England (and there aren't enough of them).

We're going back into another 4-day complete nationwide lockdown tomorrow, and there will be another one on the 5th and 6th Jan because that's another holiday. It's miserable seeing everything closed, but at least no-one's socialising outside their homes (there are a lot of police cars, though).
 
Heardy said:
Absolutely ridiculous statement. It’s not like we think it’s the building that’s unsafe - it’s the school environment and inevitable mixing.

Almost as annoying as JVT when he equated to a vaccinated pensioner wishing to hug their grandchildren to wanting to act with wild abandon
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The point being they were making is the school environment is not considered unsafe. So if you seperate it into those three elements - the building, the environment and the mixing - you believe two are risk factors, while they think one of them is. Reasonable people can disagree on that but studies have been conducted to assess it and at the very least, there isn't a clear consensus that the school environment is very unsafe.
 
Brwned said:
The point being they were making is the school environment is not considered unsafe. So if you seperate it into those three elements - the building, the environment and the mixing - you believe two are risk factors, while they think one of them is. Reasonable people can disagree on that but studies have been conducted to assess it and at the very least, there isn't a clear consensus that the school environment is very unsafe.
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Different households mixing is part of the school environment...that’s what school is.
 
Ecstatic said:
In the UK, it seems relatively easy to travel, break lockdown without being punished, unless you organize a very noisy big party. I don't think there is a lot of fined people. Not mandatory to wear masks outside unless I am mistaken.


_116070151_fines_line_chart-nc.png


In France, the police does the job with more that 1 million of fines during the same period
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What are the punishment amounts?
 
Brwned said:
The point being they were making is the school environment is not considered unsafe. So if you seperate it into those three elements - the building, the environment and the mixing - you believe two are risk factors, while they think one of them is. Reasonable people can disagree on that but studies have been conducted to assess it and at the very least, there isn't a clear consensus that the school environment is very unsafe.
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The building is a shell so take that out of the equation. It’s the mixing that necessitates a school to run which causes the issue. The teachers can only do so much, but kids being in school and travelling to / from in vast numbers in close proximity is bound to cause issues.
 
acnumber9 said:
Yes, we should definitely adopt your healthy approach to this.
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Why believe a fairytale? Why not believe realities on the ground, especially as they are happening? Why not remain founded in reality? Sure, positive thoughts help, but actual realities on the ground everywhere are starting to poke holes in this line of thought.

It’s this kind of fairytale mentality that will create even more of a spike on top of the current morass in which we find ourselves.
 
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