Nah, I think it's coming pretty soon.
SARS CoV-2 coronavirus / Covid-19 (No tin foil hat silliness please)
- Thread starter Don't Kill Bill
- Start date
The first people in my family have it (my dad and step-mum). Mild symptoms but still a worry given they're mid 60s.
They've both been about as conscientious as possible but still picked it up somehow.
They've both been about as conscientious as possible but still picked it up somehow.
Like England specifically I'm talking. It seems they're trying to put it off for as long as they can, especially with the school kids going back. If it happens maybe it'll be mid jan, but for now I just get the feeling they're trying to hold it off. Does it appear that way to you?
Do you think they're trying to delay it for as long as it can be avoided by them?
Yeah. I think they have a number for each area that they're waiting for it to hit before tier 4 comes in.
All the scientists are calling for nationwide measures so the next time they have a meeting I think that's what will be proposed but it will get turned down in favour of tier 4.
Suppose they’re hoping to tackle it through a combination of Tier 4 + rapid rollout of Oxford vaccine.
I was expecting it to be announced today starting tomorrow or 30th.
Dickhead is probably waiting for Brexit deal to get the green light on Wednesday, take in the glory, and then do it.
Rumours swirling on online (Whitehall source according to the Express, I know..) that a Tier 5 is being considered. No info as to what it could be, I'd guess the same as the original lockdown.
I think that's probably right. Use Brexit to take the sharp end of it off. Use a 'positive' to counteract the negative.
11 people found infected with new variant in NL today
Is Tier 4 not already that? Surely at some point they're going to have to accept that the only times the virus has been controlled was during times which students weren't in school.
No, Tier 4 shuts down non essential retail and gyms, but schools stay open - I believe
It depends what you define as a holiday but I was one of the c. 5m that flew through Heathrow's airport in Q3.
The transportation can easily be defined as an unnecessary risk, but everything still points to it being relatively low risk. There have been disproportionately few incidents on planes and airports are still at such a low capacity that social distancing just isn't difficult, while mask-wearing is well-enforced. After that point, I took fewer risks than the average person in the UK on an average day, I believe.
Much more time spent outdoors in wide open spaces with a much sparser population and lower levels of community infection. If you go to a supermarket in the UK you will come across many more people, and spend longer there. That's just how the society and environment is structured. Indoors is a safe haven from the cold in these times and lots of people like to linger around these expansive indoor areas. And for most of the time I was away, I was more likely to get infected in a supermarket at home. And I was more likely to spread that to my family at home, rather than containing it to just myself in my apartment abroad. I was really uncomfortable with the idea of living in a multi-generational household and spreading it to someone at much more risk than me.
The question really hinges on what kind of lifestyle you believe the average person in the UK has lived during the pandemic. Have people avoided taking all unnecessary risks, all the time? Some in this thread have, but many of those who have chosen to live like hermits also face much more severe personal risks. I would imagine they're the minority in this thread and in the society.
There are very few people I know of all age ranges that have avoided seeing their friends and family all the time. Most of them did it in controlled scenarios, and when they didn't they tried to minimise risks, and overall they cut back massively. But the reality is they did it sometimes, and that infrequent household mixing is riskier than anything about my "holiday". Are some unnecessary risks involved in taking kids to play sports? A lot of people would say yes. How many people went out to indoor restaurants? Even just in that period of eat out to help out, 160m meals suggests a good chunk of society went at least once, and many went multiple times. How many people have went to their local to "support the local economy"? I decided to skip out on those unnecessary risks, to go for months without seeing friends and family, in exchange for some other unnecessary risks. If I was home I would have seen my friends and family. Not all the time, but enough to create additional risks. That's just the reality.
I don't think it is necessary for individuals to choose to live like hermits during a pandemic. I think it's ok that people take their kids to play sports, take their wife to a restaurant, or meet a friend at a distance on the golf course. You can clearly argue they are not necessary, and they come with some degree of risk that's difficult to determine. They do provide something valuable though, it is important to take care of the mental health of yourself and your immediate family. For some people, the fear of covid is so great that doing any of these things is so anxiety-inducing that they are taking care of their mental health by not exposing themselves to that risk. For others, the cabin fever is so great that they need some outlet to prevent some severe consequences.
It doesn't bother me at all that people judge my actions harshly. Personally I think if people applied those same set of standards - with objective data, not subjective judgments - to all of their actions, they would have some difficulty squaring up their beliefs and their actions. Judgment has its role in society but there is a good reason why we suspend judgment in many scenarios.
I would say the ski resort case was a special case. They were going into a situation that was IMO unnecessarily high risk, and they were obliged to follow the rules to manage the risks as they grew. They chose not to. To me that's reckless and dangerous and it should come with some kind of punishment. The rules I was obliged to follow was a period of extended self-isolation that was personally quite challenging. But that's the trade-off I agreed to from the outset. Choosing to take your cake and eat it is both selfish and stupid.
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Some Swiss hoteliers only discovered the guests had vanished when room service trays were left untouched outside doors, Swiss media reported. Others were called by British tourists demanding their money back once they had safely crossed into France, the BBC's Imogen Foulkes reports from Geneva.
FFS how entitled can you get?
So Tier 5 would include schools? You can't close schools in some areas and not others then demand all year 11s sit exams in the summer, for instance.
My issue with the holiday makers is about exactly what happened. Taking a new variant/strain to an area of the world it wouldn’t have reached otherwise. Without these tourists it’s possible the “UK variant” could have been confined to the Uk. Now it could potentially become the dominant strain all over Europe/the world. And all because people thought it was a good idea to take a holiday during a pandemic. Which doesn’t make sense to me at all.
I agree with you that we can’t live like complete hermits or we’ll go mad. Some travel and socialising is essential to keep us sane. But this should really all be done locally.
Obviously we’re all doing our best in a truly shit situation and none of us is perfect but I can’t get my head around unnecessary travel to another country in the current circumstances.
MASSIVE IF as its just rumours circulating, but T5 would include educational settings closing.
Fair points and I agree but on the flip side, tourism/airline industries in even more trouble, and excuses made eg business trips, freedom, all we have to look forward to blah blah....majority privileges and that
Yeah but, the virus first came into the U.K. from people on skiing trips. I can’t fathom people going to those resorts in the midst of climbing numbers
Some stupid shit man. Just do it or don't. That's it. Just make your damn mind up and open up the fecking world or shut it ALL down. We poor twats will suffer for a bit and our poor elders will die and whoever makes it, makes it, but let's just do this shit properly and torture us once rather than doing silly fecking tiers and continous lockdowns.
It is possible, but probably quite unlikely. This new strain was brought to Australia by someone who wasn't a UK holidaymaker. The thousands of truckers stranded on Dover is another reminder of the interconnectedness of our economies and the inevitable risks that arise from the way we've structured our economies and societies. I would be absolutely shocked if we don't find out that the virus has been exported to Europe through people directly involved in this complex distribution network, long before we knew it existed. There are many paths for the virus beyond holidaymakers.
The WHO have had a long-held policy that even during a pandemic, closing borders is not a good solution. We should be cutting back on all unnecessary human contact and travel isn't put in a special box by many of the experts, largely because of the logistics of a global economy. It is absolutely impossible for us to function without that currently, and unfortunately that means cases will be exported. So they focus more on that track, trace and isolate program because their evidence suggests it is just more effective with the way the world works.
To me, taking more risks locally is not better than taking fewer risks internationally. Most people take more risks than me locally. I don't judge them for that nor do I reject their judgment of me. The risks are different and judging the net impact of them is difficult, so I understand why there's fundamentally different views on it.
The new variant is a different situation. Now that we know it exists and we have good reason to believe it poses additional threats, you can't say your being in the UK and your being in Switzerland brings with it an equal degree of risk to society. You are imposing additional risks on another society knowingly. Especially when you're doing something that brings significant risks already, like the ski resorts. I think that's dangerous and we should have laws preventing that. Various countries in Europe taking the decision to close their borders makes sense to me.
The reality is these countries are still playing their own balancing act. Austria said no tourists, Switzerland said you're welcome to come tourists. I think we should hold the individuals responsible for making that choice, but we should understand why they were allowed to make that choice. Presumably some Swiss small business owners were going to go bust if they missed out on this Winter. Tourism does play a huge role in livelihoods in modern society, and many tourism-reliant communities have absolutely no alternative for income, which is why almost all countries have struggled with finding that balance. If there was a viable suppression or eradication strategy the equation would be different, but European countries have never provided that. The balancing act is very complicated in mitigation because it's just bad choices on both sides.
My wife got her first dose of the vaccine today. Can’t tell you how proud I am of her and what she’s done this year. Hopefully this will keep her safe.
And rightly so
Basically what my wife said as well. I was just wondering what y’all thought too. She’s thinking the older population has been convinced it’s serious but a generation younger and the like are hard headed.
Wow 
Not until she has had her second dose remember.
Wow
Tomorrows will be the one with the real big numbers in terms of cases and deaths with all the numbers added in
What are you saying? To lockdown or not?
Wow
I really do have a problem with that 71,000+ figure. We all know that it only includes those who have had a positive result and have died within 28 days.
But. And a very very big but is the fact that back in the autumn when supplies of tests, the advice of the government was not to even phone 111 and just self isolate. That must have accounted for many thousands.
And those who died from other causes and complications because the NHS was not able to treat them.
The true figure could be in excess of 100,000. But we will never find that out because it suits them to quote the smallest number possible.
3 South Korean's, 1 French and 1 Finnish persons have brought the new strain back to their home countries after visiting the UK. Probably many more have slipped through.
South Africa have their own more contagious strain, they can appear anywhere at anytime which is why people should be really limiting travel to absolutely essential. If we start excusing everything for one's well being there is no lockdown to speak of. You don't know what problems you'll get upon returning home, you could be careful as can be but fall ill unrelated to covid and could infect a whole hospital with a new strain brought back from London or wherever.
South Africa have their own more contagious strain, they can appear anywhere at anytime which is why people should be really limiting travel to absolutely essential. If we start excusing everything for one's well being there is no lockdown to speak of. You don't know what problems you'll get upon returning home, you could be careful as can be but fall ill unrelated to covid and could infect a whole hospital with a new strain brought back from London or wherever.
Sadly.
What will go first? Premier League suspension or national lockdown?
I'm saying to the world that lets do whatever you want but let's do it just the once
Your contributions to this thread are consistently impressive and this one is incredibly nuanced and well-put. Bravo.
Sure it's nuanced but it simply amounts to a nuanced defense of unnecessary travel during a pandemic. If someone less articulate said they were off on holiday they'd be crucified by some in here.
Those idiots going to ski resorts to help spread the new variant around the world and then running away to escape quarantine and then having the gall to demand their money back from hotel .... disgusting. You really couldn't make this shit up.
It's especially bad when it is already well known that ski resorts are known super spreader venues.
https://www.theguardian.com/world/2...-helped-speed-up-spread-of-covid-19-in-europe
https://www.bbc.com/news/health-54976362
For England and Wales alone, data shows excess deaths until 4 Dec is 71K.
https://www.kingsfund.org.uk/press/press-releases/excess-deaths-ons-data-kings-fund-response
So you are probably right, they are under counting it, which is consistent with the rest of the world.
It's especially bad when it is already well known that ski resorts are known super spreader venues.
https://www.theguardian.com/world/2...-helped-speed-up-spread-of-covid-19-in-europe
Excess deaths in the UK already exceeded 70K in mid nov.
https://www.bbc.com/news/health-54976362
For England and Wales alone, data shows excess deaths until 4 Dec is 71K.
https://www.kingsfund.org.uk/press/press-releases/excess-deaths-ons-data-kings-fund-response
So you are probably right, they are under counting it, which is consistent with the rest of the world.
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Yeah, I know. 3 more weeks.
You and your good wife have my very best wishes for the new year.
Good news is she'll likely have some protection after a week or so. Need the booster for the longer term immunity.