SARS CoV-2 coronavirus / Covid-19 (No tin foil hat silliness please)

Sad but so true.

Heard 2 stories from people who know my family and they put down to covid for people who died for other reasons (tuberculosis, and chronic respiratory insuffiency). In one of these stories, one hired a lawyer and made the necessary for the deceased person to pass a covid test - negative

Excess death still remains the best indicator by default to demonstrate the real impact of covid on life expectancy imo
And excess deaths are higher than "covid deaths" in most places. France seems to be an exception, but difference is small. So it isn't true.
 
I've asked him basically this same question numerous times every times he pops up and says Covid is an exaggeration or we should just let it so it's thing or whatever and he never responds. Guy hasn't a clue. Just peddles shite and can't back it up.
It's not just him, its all the right wing pages on Facebook repeating the same shit without using there brains to figure out we'd be fecked if we let it run free, the thought process is covid had replaced flu deaths, without realising if we hadn't locked down there flu here as well, and in Ireland most of these pages have links to farrage and his cronies spreading misinformation.
 
It does. In the UK excess deaths in 2020 (up until 11 Dec) are running at somewhere between 70 and 80k depending on how you analyse the numbers. That compares to the 68k being reported now (positive test within 28 days) or 79k (death certificate gives covid as main or primary contributory factor). With the recent rise in case numbers - those figures are likely to be up by another 10k+ by new year. If anything in the UK, there's an under-counting of deaths at present.

I don't know the equivalents for Ireland, but I can't imagine there's much incentive to make it look worse than it is.

I'm not unsympathetic to the "it's happening anyway, whatever we do, why delay it?" - warn the old/high risk, then just let it rip perspective. If there was no advantage to mitigation then I'd understand the reasoning. However there is an advantage:
- vaccines on their way
- improved treatments being identified
- collapse of health services and health service personnel reduced

Patience is difficult, but death is forever.
 
If there was no lockdowns do you think the hospital's would be able to cope with covid surges and flu surges, if covid is surging with a loosing of the lockdown, who knows someone you know might be dead from it and you would be giving out about no lockdowns.
Maybe if the billions that have been spent on furlough and eat out to help out whatever other shite the government has poured money intowhile neglecting the health service for decades was actually spent bringing hospitals up to scratch they would be able to cope.
 
And excess deaths are higher than "covid deaths" in most places. France seems to be an exception, but difference is small. So it isn't true.

Each country has its own methodology.
 
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It does. In the UK excess deaths in 2020 (up until 11 Dec) are running at somewhere between 70 and 80k depending on how you analyse the numbers. That compares to 68k (positive test within 28 days) or 79k (death certificate gives covid as main or primary contributory factor). With the recent rise in case numbers - those figures are likely to be up by another 10k+ by new year.

I don't know the equivalents for Ireland, but I can't imagine there's much incentive to make it look worse than it is.

I'm not unsympathetic to the "it's happening anyway, whatever we do, why delay it?" - warn the old/high risk, then just let it rip perspective. If there was no advantage to mitigation then I'd understand the reasoning. However there is an advantage:
- vaccines on their way
- improved treatments being identified
- collapse of health services and health service personnel reduced

Patience is difficult, but death is forever.

Good post.
 
Each country has its own methodology.

This is where I feel WHO have let us down again (as far as I know). I know they have no real enforcement power but if feel they should have got the nation's together and set out what counts as a positive case (the type of test) and what counts as a COVID death.

I feel each country doing their own thing is not helpful and just confused an already chaotic matter
 
There's a lot of unknowns in this arena, including scientific models based on so many assumptions that the outputs are all over the place.

If we're currently making decisions based on a lot of unknowns and were making decisions back in March based on even more; then I'm sure pontificating on different possibilities isn't beyond the pale.



That's the point of an opportunity cost though isn't it? It's about the opportunity.

But to answer the point more directly if given a binary choice to save a million years of wealthy white western life or tens of millions of years of poorer non-white lives; then the latter is obviously preferable.

What a strange comparison. The choice is not saving 'wealthy white western life', all countries which are in the same boat are having to do roughly similar things. India in their lockdown weren't trying to save wealthy white western lives.

It also isn't about some theoretical saving of lives. Currently, across the whole of London, we are really struggling for ICU beds. A lot of places are cancelling elective surgeries again and I imagine this will continue. We're going to be making VERY difficult decisions about who can go to the intensive care unit soon, if some hospitals aren't already. Especially if god forbid you fall unwell with something needing the ICU, which isn't Covid related. Ambulances are taking absolutely ages to arrive at genuine emergencies. The system is swamped and that's with lockdowns. And it isn't just the NHS before someone pipes in with an ideological point. France, Belgium, USA, take your pick of other countries. With health systems which have been close to being overwhelmed or which essentially have.

People still seem to think these measures are put in place to protect 90 year old Doris or Francine or Juana, even though they've got only a few months to live.
 
"UK Coronavirus" - is this not the equivalent of Trump calling it the China virus? Did we not just spot the variant as we do 45% of the world's sequencing?

Its a bit of the boy who cried wolf with this one sadly. Our government have spent so much of the past 9 months proclaiming our 'world beating' response to Covid, when the only thing world beating about it has been in its utter shitness.

It does mean though that when something has actually popped up because of an area that we do seem to be genuinely world beating, its going to become known as the UK variant. :D
 
Concentrating on deaths pushes the impact of those who catch it and are sick to the sidelines. A decent number of people are being hospitalised which gets forgotten somewhat. Also whats forgotten is the impact on economies of those who get sick with it and take time off work. The numbers getting sick with it are considerable and the lost productivity etc will be felt further down the track. The far right want to concentrate on just the deaths and minimise that aspect, they are conveniently ignoring the very large impact of those who are made sick with this and the large number who end up hospitalised
 
What a strange comparison. The choice is not saving 'wealthy white western life', all countries which are in the same boat are having to do roughly similar things. India in their lockdown weren't trying to save wealthy white western lives.

It also isn't about some theoretical saving of lives. Currently, across the whole of London, we are really struggling for ICU beds. A lot of places are cancelling elective surgeries again and I imagine this will continue. We're going to be making VERY difficult decisions about who can go to the intensive care unit soon, if some hospitals aren't already. Especially if god forbid you fall unwell with something needing the ICU, which isn't Covid related. Ambulances are taking absolutely ages to arrive at genuine emergencies. The system is swamped and that's with lockdowns. And it isn't just the NHS before someone pipes in with an ideological point. France, Belgium, USA, take your pick of other countries. With health systems which have been close to being overwhelmed or which essentially have.

People still seem to think these measures are put in place to protect 90 year old Doris or Francine or Juana, even though they've got only a few months to live.
Are you on the frontline? What the situation been like recently (say last few weeks). Has it got dramatically worse?
 
Are you on the frontline? What the situation been like recently (say last few weeks). Has it got dramatically worse?

I am indeed. The situation is pretty shite at the moment. Not quite back at 1st wave levels in my hospital yet but we're getting there again. More and more wards are being turned into full covid wards now, we're having problems where patients come in with other problems asymptomatic from a respiratory point of view and ending up having covid, whilst they've been happily sitting there in an open bay with 3-4 other patients for 2-3 days.

Whole teams going down sick with covid at the same time, ITU almost full again despite the surge capacity kicking in. Having to try to divert patients sometimes. Hospital is full. A&E docs having to review patients in ambulances sometimes. Patients telling us they're waiting for hours on end for ambulances for chest pain or stroke like presentations. Horrible bed block. We're having to start thinking about redeploying some doctors (especially the more junior doctors in specialties like O&G, surgery, GP training) into the medical wards and intensive care. Some hospitals in London have already cancelled all elective stuff again.

There's also been a bit of a shift as well in public attitue I think, which has hit some workers. Its not quite aggression as such but definitely a lot more snide comments, snapping etc from patients and relatives than last time. I don't blame them at all but its draining on top of everything else.

I think I mentioned this earlier in the thread but I'm struggling to see how these aren't going to be amongst the grimmest few months of my career so far.
 
I am indeed. The situation is pretty shite at the moment. Not quite back at 1st wave levels in my hospital yet but we're getting there again. More and more wards are being turned into full covid wards now, we're having problems where patients come in with other problems asymptomatic from a respiratory point of view and ending up having covid, whilst they've been happily sitting there in an open bay with 3-4 other patients for 2-3 days.

Whole teams going down sick with covid at the same time, ITU almost full again despite the surge capacity kicking in. Having to try to divert patients sometimes. Hospital is full. A&E docs having to review patients in ambulances sometimes. Patients telling us they're waiting for hours on end for ambulances for chest pain or stroke like presentations. Horrible bed block. We're having to start thinking about redeploying some doctors (especially the more junior doctors in specialties like O&G, surgery, GP training) into the medical wards and intensive care. Some hospitals in London have already cancelled all elective stuff again.

There's also been a bit of a shift as well in public attitue I think, which has hit some workers. Its not quite aggression as such but definitely a lot more snide comments, snapping etc from patients and relatives than last time. I don't blame them at all but its draining on top of everything else.

I think I mentioned this earlier in the thread but I'm struggling to see how these aren't going to be amongst the grimmest few months of my career so far.
Bless you, you poor bastard. I don’t think I’d have the bollocks for the job, even if I had the training and experience.
I think it’s public fatigue that causes the poor attitudes. Back in March prior to the first lockdown there was talk at the time of lockdown fatigue (as a reason to not go too early) and in many cases it was laughed at but it’s definitely happened. People just can’t bring themselves to be disciplined any longer which, with a new more contagious variant in circulation, means things will probably get worse before they get better
 
Just found out that a close family friend is fighting for his life. Tested positive. Felt relatively fine. Then 5 days later is in hospital and the doctors put him in a medically induced coma. They don't know if he's going to make it. He's 45, doesn't smoke or drink. Cycles every day. Has an 8 year old daughter at home who doesn't understand why her father isn't with her for Christmas.

Stay safe people.
 
Just found out that a close family friend is fighting for his life. Tested positive. Felt relatively fine. Then 5 days later is in hospital and the doctors put him in a medically induced coma. They don't know if he's going to make it. He's 45, doesn't smoke or drink. Cycles every day. Has an 8 year old daughter at home who doesn't understand why her father isn't with her for Christmas.

Stay safe people.

:( Awful and scary post. My best wishes for him and his family.
 
I am indeed. The situation is pretty shite at the moment. Not quite back at 1st wave levels in my hospital yet but we're getting there again. More and more wards are being turned into full covid wards now, we're having problems where patients come in with other problems asymptomatic from a respiratory point of view and ending up having covid, whilst they've been happily sitting there in an open bay with 3-4 other patients for 2-3 days.

Whole teams going down sick with covid at the same time, ITU almost full again despite the surge capacity kicking in. Having to try to divert patients sometimes. Hospital is full. A&E docs having to review patients in ambulances sometimes. Patients telling us they're waiting for hours on end for ambulances for chest pain or stroke like presentations. Horrible bed block. We're having to start thinking about redeploying some doctors (especially the more junior doctors in specialties like O&G, surgery, GP training) into the medical wards and intensive care. Some hospitals in London have already cancelled all elective stuff again.

There's also been a bit of a shift as well in public attitue I think, which has hit some workers. Its not quite aggression as such but definitely a lot more snide comments, snapping etc from patients and relatives than last time. I don't blame them at all but its draining on top of everything else.

I think I mentioned this earlier in the thread but I'm struggling to see how these aren't going to be amongst the grimmest few months of my career so far.

:( good luck. I hope whatever measures are brought in make things slightly more manageable for you and your colleagues.
 
Sad but so true.

Heard 2 stories from people who know my family and they put down to covid for people who died for other reasons (tuberculosis, and chronic respiratory insuffiency). In one of these stories, one hired a lawyer and made the necessary for the deceased person to pass a covid test - negative

Excess death still remains the best indicator by default to demonstrate the real impact of covid on life expectancy imo
Sad but so true.

Heard 2 stories from people who know my family and they put down to covid for people who died for other reasons (tuberculosis, and chronic respiratory insuffiency). In one of these stories, one hired a lawyer and made the necessary for the deceased person to pass a covid test - negative

Excess death still remains the best indicator by default to demonstrate the real impact of covid on life expectancy imo

Excess deaths are globally up far more than the 1.75 million officially listed as due to covid so stop with this nonsense. Not that deaths alone are the issue. Read the posts by @africanspur and @Holocene and then stop distracting with this nonsense.
 
I am indeed. The situation is pretty shite at the moment. Not quite back at 1st wave levels in my hospital yet but we're getting there again. More and more wards are being turned into full covid wards now, we're having problems where patients come in with other problems asymptomatic from a respiratory point of view and ending up having covid, whilst they've been happily sitting there in an open bay with 3-4 other patients for 2-3 days.

Whole teams going down sick with covid at the same time, ITU almost full again despite the surge capacity kicking in. Having to try to divert patients sometimes. Hospital is full. A&E docs having to review patients in ambulances sometimes. Patients telling us they're waiting for hours on end for ambulances for chest pain or stroke like presentations. Horrible bed block. We're having to start thinking about redeploying some doctors (especially the more junior doctors in specialties like O&G, surgery, GP training) into the medical wards and intensive care. Some hospitals in London have already cancelled all elective stuff again.

There's also been a bit of a shift as well in public attitue I think, which has hit some workers. Its not quite aggression as such but definitely a lot more snide comments, snapping etc from patients and relatives than last time. I don't blame them at all but its draining on top of everything else.

I think I mentioned this earlier in the thread but I'm struggling to see how these aren't going to be amongst the grimmest few months of my career so far.
Fair play, I cant imagine what its like. Stay safe and thank you.
Just found out that a close family friend is fighting for his life. Tested positive. Felt relatively fine. Then 5 days later is in hospital and the doctors put him in a medically induced coma. They don't know if he's going to make it. He's 45, doesn't smoke or drink. Cycles every day. Has an 8 year old daughter at home who doesn't understand why her father isn't with her for Christmas.

Stay safe people.
Thats awful :( hope he gets better!
 
Excess deaths are globally up far more than the 1.75 million officially listed as due to covid so stop with this nonsense. Not that deaths alone are the issue. Read the posts by @africanspur and @Holocene and then stop distracting with this nonsense.

If you are unhapppy with my posts, then you should delete my account: I have no problem with that.

I don't see the point in having a one-track thinking in a forum.
 
If you are unhapppy with my posts, then you should delete my account: I have no problem with that.

I don't see the point in having a one-track thinking in a forum.
There is a significant difference between having a one track forum and posting complete and utter nonsense.
 
If you are unhapppy with my posts, then you should delete my account: I have no problem with that.

I don't see the point in having a one-track thinking in a forum.

Don't pretend that you are being threatened with being banned for promoting rubbish and being unable to defend or justify your opinions?
 
If you are unhapppy with my posts, then you should delete my account: I have no problem with that.

I don't see the point in having a one-track thinking in a forum.

It’s not a thought if it’s been burped out of your arse. You’re talking nonsense. Yours isn’t the ‘Balance’. It’s ill informed and constantly debunked nonsense.
 
Don't pretend that you are being threatened with being banned for promoting rubbish and being unable to defend or justify your opinions?

I write what I want.

If you are unhappy, just ban me.
 
It’s not a thought if it’s been burped out of your arse. You’re talking nonsense. Yours isn’t the ‘Balance’. It’s ill informed and constantly debunked nonsense.

Did I write I was "the Balance"? Your way of thinking is unhealthy to say the least
 
I write what I want.

If you are unhappy, just ban me.

I think you misunderstand. You are posting dangerous and unsupportable nonsense. I will continue to call your idiocy out.

Don't try to distract from your inability to support your assertions by playing the victim.
 
Current test return/backlog is around 2.9 days based on the latest data released yesterday.

1,698 were from tests taken y'day (5%)
15,475 Tuesday (44%)
12,203 Monday (34%)
3,991 Sunday (11%)
1,553 Saturday (4%)
511 Friday (1%)
114 last Thurs
Negative at 6am this morning
 
Did I write I was "the Balance"? Your way of thinking is unhealthy to say the least

Well if you think your thought process is the one that challenges a ‘One track forum’ then yes, that would represent a balancing point.

The problem is that you have no idea what you’re talking about. You can’t justify your position. You use an anecdotal point to challenge facts. You get called out on it. And instead of realising that you’re wrong, or attempting to show evidence of everyone else being wrong, you ask to be banned under the guise of censorship.

You’re either trolling, or worse.