SARS CoV-2 coronavirus / Covid-19 (No tin foil hat silliness please)

Current test return/backlog is around 2.9 days based on the latest data released yesterday.

1,698 were from tests taken y'day (5%)
15,475 Tuesday (44%)
12,203 Monday (34%)
3,991 Sunday (11%)
1,553 Saturday (4%)
511 Friday (1%)
114 last Thurs
So there's a dead certain delay of 3 days in all cases? Damn
 
So there's a dead certain delay of 3 days in all cases? Damn

On average, yes. The only thing that could improve or delay it is the Xmas period being quiet, or staff shortage due to Xmas and increase in demand due to the virus spreading. Monday/Tuesday I’d be confident in saying that’s when you’ll get something. Fingers crossed it’s negative.
 
It’s so good. Does anyone know what the incident was? Presumably a tackle that might have meant a yellow card? How could Mourinho have seen it if he was looking at his phone? Why was he looking at his phone?

So many questions...

I think it was something along lines of realising somebody may have received a second yellow but not been sent off. It’s pointed out to Jose who goes mental
 
It’s so good. Does anyone know what the incident was? Presumably a tackle that might have meant a yellow card? How could Mourinho have seen it if he was looking at his phone? Why was he looking at his phone?

So many questions...

It was against Man City, Sterling was on a yellow already and collided with Loris. Ref said no penalty and gave a free kick to Spurs. Mourinho was then protesting that if it wasn’t a penalty, then it was a dive and Sterling should get a second yellow.
 
On average, yes. The only thing that could improve or delay it is the Xmas period being quiet, or staff shortage due to Xmas and increase in demand due to the virus spreading. Monday/Tuesday I’d be confident in saying that’s when you’ll get something. Fingers crossed it’s negative.
I hope so man. I asked the dude and he said something similar. He said usually you'd get em next day but it'll be earliest Sunday.
 
It was against Man City, Sterling was on a yellow already and collided with Loris. Ref said no penalty and gave a free kick to Spurs. Mourinho was then protesting that if it wasn’t a penalty, then it was a dive and Sterling should get a second yellow.

Nice one. Thanks. That’s the sort of expertise and scientific rigor that keeps me coming back to this thread.
 
It exists of course. Just not worth shutting the world down or the hysteria that’s being caused over it.

What in your eyes would be worth shutting down the way we have, all across the world?

Personally living in a country that just had 100% excess deaths in November (32,000, nearly 1 in 1,000) I feel that if anything our response has been way too soft.

It is the worst pandemic of modern era, it completely warrants all the ‘hysteria’.
 
What in your eyes would be worth shutting down the way we have, all across the world?

Personally living in a country that just had 100% excess deaths in November (32,000, nearly 1 in 1,000) I feel that if anything our response has been way too soft.

It is the worst pandemic of modern era, it completely warrants all the ‘hysteria’.

I think for people who believe the reaction has been disproportionate; one key reason is the opportunity cost of the trillions that as a result have either been spent on Covid or not earned due to measures introduced.

Had the world wholly ignored the virus* and focused this spend / loss of income on tackling issues such as world poverty or climate change; there's an argument that the years of life saved would be many, many times larger.

If you're sympathetic to that view then we've essentially spent trillions replacing the carpets when the roof is collapsing and the foundations are subsiding.

Truthfully if someone explained the Western reaction to this virus without giving details about the virus itself I'd have assumed the mortality to be several times greater and the average age of death to be much younger (e.g. the very young being disproportionately at risk)

*Not say this was a viable political strategy of course.
 
I think for people who believe the reaction has been disproportionate; one key reason is the opportunity cost of the trillions that as a result have either been spent on Covid or not earned due to measures introduced.

Had the world wholly ignored the virus* and focused this spend / loss of income on tackling issues such as world poverty or climate change; there's an argument that the years of life saved would be many, many times larger.

If you're sympathetic to that view then we've essentially spent trillions replacing the carpets when the roof is collapsing and the foundations are subsiding.

Truthfully if someone explained the Western reaction to this virus without giving details about the virus itself I'd have assumed the mortality to be several times greater and the average age of death to be much younger (e.g. the very young being disproportionately at risk)

*Not say this was a viable political strategy of course.
The median age in ireland is 37 btw. It’s not right for people to keep believing it’s an old person thing
 
I think for people who believe the reaction has been disproportionate; one key reason is the opportunity cost of the trillions that as a result have either been spent on Covid or not earned due to measures introduced.

Had the world wholly ignored the virus* and focused this spend / loss of income on tackling issues such as world poverty or climate change; there's an argument that the years of life saved would be many, many times larger.

If you're sympathetic to that view then we've essentially spent trillions replacing the carpets when the roof is collapsing and the foundations are subsiding.

Truthfully if someone explained the Western reaction to this virus without giving details about the virus itself I'd have assumed the mortality to be several times greater and the average age of death to be much younger (e.g. the very young being disproportionately at risk)

*Not say this was a viable political strategy of course.
The problem with this of course is that hunger, poverty and climate change are constant issues so it’s very difficult to hedge an opportunity cost against them as you know that the money ‘wouldn’t have been available’ to be spent.
Additionally, re the fatalities, we don’t really know what they’d have looked like unless measures were put in place, so it’s a mute point isn’t it?
 
I think for people who believe the reaction has been disproportionate; one key reason is the opportunity cost of the trillions that as a result have either been spent on Covid or not earned due to measures introduced.

Had the world wholly ignored the virus* and focused this spend / loss of income on tackling issues such as world poverty or climate change; there's an argument that the years of life saved would be many, many times larger.

If you're sympathetic to that view then we've essentially spent trillions replacing the carpets when the roof is collapsing and the foundations are subsiding.

Truthfully if someone explained the Western reaction to this virus without giving details about the virus itself I'd have assumed the mortality to be several times greater and the average age of death to be much younger (e.g. the very young being disproportionately at risk)

*Not say this was a viable political strategy of course.

And we all know exactly what your response would have been if governments all over the world suddenly decided to invest trillions in fighting world poverty and climate change...
 
And we all know exactly what your response would have been if governments all over the world suddenly decided to invest trillions in fighting world poverty and climate change...
I very nearly wrote this in the post above but thought it too cynical
 
I think for people who believe the reaction has been disproportionate; one key reason is the opportunity cost of the trillions that as a result have either been spent on Covid or not earned due to measures introduced.

Had the world wholly ignored the virus* and focused this spend / loss of income on tackling issues such as world poverty or climate change; there's an argument that the years of life saved would be many, many times larger.

If you're sympathetic to that view then we've essentially spent trillions replacing the carpets when the roof is collapsing and the foundations are subsiding.

Truthfully if someone explained the Western reaction to this virus without giving details about the virus itself I'd have assumed the mortality to be several times greater and the average age of death to be much younger (e.g. the very young being disproportionately at risk)

*Not say this was a viable political strategy of course.
I think that if it hadn't swamped hospital capacity as quickly as it did then this might have been a feasible option for people with a Libertarian political stance. The problem was that all across the World hospitals just could not cope with the influx of patients.

Edit: Of course I'm talking about letting the virus run it's coarse not investing in the poor when I'm talking about Libertarians.
 
The problem with this of course is that hunger, poverty and climate change are constant issues so it’s very difficult to hedge an opportunity cost against them as you know that the money ‘wouldn’t have been available’ to be spent.
Additionally, re the fatalities, we don’t really know what they’d have looked like unless measures were put in place, so it’s a mute point isn’t it?

There's a lot of unknowns in this arena, including scientific models based on so many assumptions that the outputs are all over the place.

If we're currently making decisions based on a lot of unknowns and were making decisions back in March based on even more; then I'm sure pontificating on different possibilities isn't beyond the pale.

And we all know exactly what your response would have been if governments all over the world suddenly decided to invest trillions in fighting world poverty and climate change...

That's the point of an opportunity cost though isn't it? It's about the opportunity.

But to answer the point more directly if given a binary choice to save a million years of wealthy white western life or tens of millions of years of poorer non-white lives; then the latter is obviously preferable.

I think that if it hadn't swamped hospital capacity as quickly as it did then this might have been a feasible option for people with a Libertarian political stance. The problem was that all across the World hospitals just could not cope with the influx of patients.

Edit: Of course I'm talking about letting the virus run it's coarse not investing in the poor when I'm talking about Libertarians.

I'm sure after decades of research we still won't get an exact idea about what would have occurred if various different scenarios were implemented.

What we will know however is the cost and what could have been done with it.

It reminds me of a statistic (how true it is I'm unsure) that I saw stating that housing regulations to prevent deaths by fires cost (per live that the save) us over one hundred thousand times that of preventing aids related deaths in some African countries. Likewise DoT spending on road safety is over fifteen thousand times.

Effectively the opportunity cost of saving one UK life from fire is over 100,000 lives in another part of the world. Counter-intuitively then it could be argued that the inevitably onerous regulations that will result from Grenfell should have us infuriated at the opportunity cost of thousands of lives in other parts of the world.

An interesting theoretical debate no doubt. However one that I've realised has taken up too much of this day so I'll wish all a Merry Christmas!
 
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Sent from a newbie

Hey mate, hope you’re good.
Ive been lurking in the covid thread since March (before I even made an account) so I’m heavily invested in it all. I finally ended up having my own experience with it all and thought it would be interesting for others to hear about this all, a reminder of the stupidity and incompetence and why it’s gotten so bad:

Hi all, thought this would be of interest of people invested in the UK and the approach of the people and government. If I could also get one of the smarty pants to let me know what they think of my symptoms and results.

I work in a law firm (you’d have thunk they would be a clever bunch then eh?)they made everyone come back the second they legally could and have pretty much been completely against the idea of WFH the entire time since (even through this second “lockdown” that just went past). We had positive results - not even closed the office for a day. No social distancing, no mask, no temperature checks - they all thought it was one big joke. I’ve been entirely uncomfortable with the whole situation especially considering my family all live together and my parents are over 70, BAME, overweight and my dad has very bad diabetes. Unfortunately I needed this job, so I’ve just been wearing a mask at home and avoiding my parents since I started back in September- thats 5 whole months.

Anyway, I digress. Last Friday, my manager was coughing at work. No one else was taking it seriously but I asked him why he is still in if he has a cough. He started to make a joke about it and even pretended to try and come closer to me as I was doing my best to avoid being anywhere near him.

Of course, the very next day I wake up with a dry cough, I don’t freak out, yet. Sunday, I woke up and the cough was even worse, I still felt completely fine in every other way but was starting to get worried. I then woke up in my sleep at around 5am on Monday with very bad body aches and shivers, and a temperature of 38.7. Boom, it came out of nowhere and I knew I had it at this point.

I then proceeded to find out the next few days at home that my manager who was joking around and someone else both tested positive over the weekend, and there was one individual whom tested positive last week who we had no idea about. Even after the positive test from last week, these dimwits decided it was a good idea for someone with a cough to stay at work. Yeah.

On to my peculiar situation and the shitshow that is our government. I booked my test that Monday (walk thru) and went back home and begin my isolation and waited. Kept waiting. Finally Thursday morning I get a text with my results! Yay!

Except... they forgot to send my actual results. For anyone who has had a test, you know they send you two texts. The first is the confirmation of a -/+ result, and the second is just a template of standard information of COVID. They sent me the second text and literally forgot to text the actual results (didn’t give them my email). So I rang up 119 and told them you guys fecked up and I need a way to find my results, which they informed me they cannot legally chase my results until the 26th December (5 days after test) so I’ve got to twiddle my thumbs and call back tomorrow to finally get the result they’ve had since Thursday morning. Thank you so much Boris and co for all your hard and sensible work!

Sorry for the long post but now I just have one quick question for the ones more knowledgeable than me. Whilst I await confirmation of my test results tomorrow, there is a small code in the second text to register your test in the app - I done so and the app told me my result was negative. I’m still awaiting proper confirmation, however if this is true, I genuinely cannot believe it. I was around people who tested positive and had symptoms - and then the very next few days I get 2 out of 3 of the major COVID symptoms. I am almost certain it was a false negative and that worries me. Anyone care to let me know their thoughts?
 
I would get a second test for sure, even if I had to pay for it. If his parents are high risk, there should be no messing about. From the story told, it’s almost certainly Covid anyway so I would treat it as such and isolate for 14 days anyway, even if I had 10 negative tests!

My friend has it, has had zero symptoms, hasn’t been around anyone at all. It’s a false positive, 99%, but because he’s had a positive, he’s isolating. Same should go for people who have symptoms but get a negative result.
 
I think for people who believe the reaction has been disproportionate; one key reason is the opportunity cost of the trillions that as a result have either been spent on Covid or not earned due to measures introduced.

Had the world wholly ignored the virus* and focused this spend / loss of income on tackling issues such as world poverty or climate change; there's an argument that the years of life saved would be many, many times larger.

If you're sympathetic to that view then we've essentially spent trillions replacing the carpets when the roof is collapsing and the foundations are subsiding.

Truthfully if someone explained the Western reaction to this virus without giving details about the virus itself I'd have assumed the mortality to be several times greater and the average age of death to be much younger (e.g. the very young being disproportionately at risk)

*Not say this was a viable political strategy of course.

The problem is that argument relies on some assumptions that can never be proven because they haven't been tested. It's just a nice thing to believe because it confirms your worldview without ever providing evidence to confirm it or contradict it. How could the grass not be greener if the grass is set in a fantasy? The closest thing to ignoring the virus is the US under Trump in the last few months and it doesn't at all align with the notion that non-corona things would be significantly better if you just ignored it. But that is just swept under the rug because it is inconvenient.
 
"UK Coronavirus" - is this not the equivalent of Trump calling it the China virus? Did we not just spot the variant as we do 45% of the world's sequencing?
"UK Coronavirus Variant" I don't think there's anything wrong with saying that. If they said "UK Coronavirus' then yeah it would be a bit wrong but they didn't.
 
"UK Coronavirus Variant" I don't think there's anything wrong with saying that. If they said "UK Coronavirus' then yeah it would be a bit wrong but they didn't.

I think it's more the attribution to the UK I guess that bothers me. I know it was discovered here, but is that not due to the UK doing more testing/sequencing? Or was it actually a strain that came from the UK? I thought that would be a stretch considering cases were spiking across Europe before us
 
I think for people who believe the reaction has been disproportionate; one key reason is the opportunity cost of the trillions that as a result have either been spent on Covid or not earned due to measures introduced.

Had the world wholly ignored the virus* and focused this spend / loss of income on tackling issues such as world poverty or climate change; there's an argument that the years of life saved would be many, many times larger.

If you're sympathetic to that view then we've essentially spent trillions replacing the carpets when the roof is collapsing and the foundations are subsiding.

Truthfully if someone explained the Western reaction to this virus without giving details about the virus itself I'd have assumed the mortality to be several times greater and the average age of death to be much younger (e.g. the very young being disproportionately at risk)

*Not say this was a viable political strategy of course.
Like that carpets and roof analogy tbh.
 
Quality control
The median age in ireland is 37 btw. It’s not right for people to keep believing it’s an old person thing
For cases which is irrelevant. Plus the fact that basically any death now is being put down to covid. I’m not denying that it’s a problem but the scaremongering about case numbers is helping no one.
 
The test is horrible man. I had to take it twice and gave it a proper scrub on my tonsils and my right nasal passage. Now I have a blocked nasal passage and my tonsils are sore.
 
For cases which is irrelevant. Plus the fact that basically any death now is being put down to covid. I’m not denying that it’s a problem but the scaremongering about case numbers is helping no one.
If there was no lockdowns do you think the hospital's would be able to cope with covid surges and flu surges, if covid is surging with a loosing of the lockdown, who knows someone you know might be dead from it and you would be giving out about no lockdowns.
 
If there was no lockdowns do you think the hospital's would be able to cope with covid surges and flu surges, if covid is surging with a loosing of the lockdown, who knows someone you know might be dead from it and you would be giving out about no lockdowns.
I've asked him basically this same question numerous times every times he pops up and says Covid is an exaggeration or we should just let it so it's thing or whatever and he never responds. Guy hasn't a clue. Just peddles shite and can't back it up.
 
For cases which is irrelevant. Plus the fact that basically any death now is being put down to covid. I’m not denying that it’s a problem but the scaremongering about case numbers is helping no one.

Sad but so true.

Heard 2 stories from people who know my family and they put down to covid for people who died for other reasons (tuberculosis, and chronic respiratory insuffiency). In one of these stories, one hired a lawyer and made the necessary for the deceased person to pass a covid test - negative

Excess death still remains the best indicator by default to demonstrate the real impact of covid on life expectancy imo