SARS CoV-2 coronavirus / Covid-19 (No tin foil hat silliness please)
- Thread starter Don't Kill Bill
- Start date
can't believe this wasn't posted yet
UK (supposed) figures - 19 deaths, 12,594 cases.
This is the sixth fecking day of this argument! Can't you two just agree to disagree and leave it at that, so we can just read the updates rather than an aimless debate dragging on into its second week?
Gladly, provided he doesn’t continue to lie about what I said.
I would take any claim coming from the Indian govt or official govt bodies with a massive spoonful of salt.
They have flat out lied about the sensitivity/specificity of the test kits they made a few months ago.
Aren't deaths supposed to trail infections by a few weeks? I genuinely wouldnt be surprised if the Indian govt was just making shit up.. that's how little faith I have in them.
Varadkar striking quite a tone there given the health minister was simultaneously in a press conference saying there was no issue between government and NPHET.
Comes across as him criticising NPHET for rightly staying solely within their remit, which is public health, even after pointing out that is the limit of their remit. Literally not their job to consider social or economic implications.
With the CMO releasing a letter outright saying the government's plan won't work, it's quite a political risk. If it goes wrong then they'll come under heavy fire for ignoring expert health advice. Though if they listened to the advice they'd come under fire for that too.
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I find it scary just how accurate TTOI is sometimes. Well all of the time...
I’ve found it really funny. @Wibble is a great thread villain. He’s surpassed @Regulus Arcturus Black effort back in the spring.To be honest, this is how it should work. Scientists issue advice, the government takes that advice on board, considers factors outside the scope of the scientists advice (impact on economy etc) then decides on next steps. I’m always inclined to side with the medics but jumping straight to level 5 would have made a mockery of the whole framework published a few weeks ago. You can’t keep moving the goal-posts and expect the public to buy in to the plan.
Having said that, the absence of a clear plan here is our biggest problem. What is our goal? Without making that clear it’s hard for everyone to stay motivated.
I think our goal should be to have everything back at level one by early December, which is why I would've been happy for level 4 (I still think level 5 would've been pure madness), which still isn't great, and for selfish reasons it means I can't go away on my already booked week off, but having things open for Christmas would be both amazing for people in general as well as a massive boost to the economy. If people are still told not to leave their counties for Christmas and pubs are still basically closed, they'll be pissed (and not the good pissed!).
Long, long term? Feck knows, we definitely need to adapt more of the EU regulations, that's for sure.
He has the most punchable face on the planet. makes me angry just looking at him!!
My main issue is Varadkar. I don't think generating "Varadkar criticises Holohan" stories about clear tensions between government ans NPHET helps, especially when his colleagues were trying to downplay the idea of any rift.
But yeah, the idea any NPHET advice would be weighed against socio-economic consequences was already layed out by government, as far as I'm aware. So it's not like they were intending to be forever tied to their advice. Big few weeks ahead though given Holohan is outright stating the government plan won't work. 1600-2300 new cases by Nov. 7th if the current trend continues, apparently.
Ok, yeah. Fair enough. Not great when this all plays out so publicly. Although the papers were going to be full of stories about this rift anyway. Varadkar is just “getting ahead of the story” no doubt as advised by some PR gonk. Seems to be a bit of rancour about NPHET and their media leak, which is ironic considering how every other decision - bar none - was leaked by the government.
It’s very disappointing. When it was Varadkar, Harris and Holohan as the 3 amigos at the Covid peak, I always felt they were a good team, on the same page working together. So to see this play out publicly once Holohan comes back is disappointing and shows they aren’t in control as much as I thought
We cant keep going in and out of hiding from this.
We need either a total and utter lock down to crush this or carry on as we are.
I am firmly of the belief that the economic damage and potential job losses and financial strain will cause more long term issues and mental health problems.
So we have to find a balance until science rescues us.
Greater Manchester's amended figures for the week to 2nd October. For Manchester itself, the huge leap is in the university halls of residence areas - about 55% of cases are in 18-21 year olds, mostly asymptomatic or with minimal symptoms.
The same effect is probably happening in places like Salford, where there are also high student numbers - I suspect we may see jumps there once the testing ramps up.
The same effect is probably happening in places like Salford, where there are also high student numbers - I suspect we may see jumps there once the testing ramps up.
Greater Manchester's amended figures for the week to 2nd October. For Manchester itself, the huge leap is in the university halls of residence areas - about 55% of cases are in 18-21 year olds, mostly asymptomatic or with minimal symptoms.
The same effect is probably happening in places like Salford, where there are also high student numbers - I suspect we may see jumps there once the testing ramps up.
University of Manchester now publishing daily confirmed cases. >200 per day now, presumably it's spreading rather nicely through halls of residence!
https://www.manchester.ac.uk/coronavirus/cases/
Even if you have a complete lockdown and get it to a point of close to elimination then you have to be prepared to have ongoing control put in place for small outbreaks. There will be ongoing outbreaks that have to be contained. Regional limited restrictions cant be avoided. Its the nature of the beast. The biggest problem is getting general by in from the majority of the population, I think thats almost more difficult than the control measures, getting the public onboard.
Allegedly the error, that saw test results go missing from the test and trace record keeping system last week, is that it uses xls files (possibly due to a csv import step) perhaps just because they're clueless. But quite possibly because a lot of NHS trusts haven't been able to upgrade systems since Excel 2003 ruled the roost.
From a basic techie perspective, data import from multiple sources is always an issue - which is why you write database imports that crosscheck that the correct number of records gets added each time. Obviously not if you're world beaters though. Which begs the question really - have they actually written an Excel database app rather than used an actual database?
From a basic techie perspective, data import from multiple sources is always an issue - which is why you write database imports that crosscheck that the correct number of records gets added each time. Obviously not if you're world beaters though. Which begs the question really - have they actually written an Excel database app rather than used an actual database?
Oh man that's bad
Serco and the like really are a joke. I'd love to know their change processes because not considering file volumes and formats is really fecking basic stuff.
It speaks volumes about government contracts though. Firms that had built up expertise got priced out of the contracts and the only ones willing to do them now are such crooks. There's a reason they're cheaper.
Yeah I read this on the Serco/Excel cock up yesterday. Clowns
Actually what we need to do is find a way to enforce mask wearing and other common sense measures that big proportions of numpties are ignoring, if we could do that we’d not need to entertain the idea of a lockdown
Ah that's interesting. So it sounds from that like the xls file was an attempt to clean up csv files before uploading to the real database. That's poor, and there's no way an individual error (as that could have been) should have been allowed to survive past the first large import that triggered the fault.
Are you surprised? I worked with the NHS around the time they were trying to implement the centralised patient record system. I'm surprised half of them even manage to turn their PCs on. I never met an actual IT expert on what was supposedly the world's biggest IT project. It was all consultants, accountants and undefined project managers.
The problem is not that the tech is two decades old, the problem is that they have not used a database. Databases are critical for any data which you cannot afford to risk losing.
Remarkable that such errors are happening at such level. Any tech student could have told you what I just wrote.
If the Sky report that @CassiusClaymore linked is accurate, then there is a real database at the top of the food chain. The Excel section may have been an intermediate step used when preparing csv and similar stuff for upload.
It is basic stuff, a silly mistake to make and a disturbing one not to be noticed immediately, the first time an upload threw up errors - which of course makes you wonder about the error checking.
But that’s the problem. You’re suggesting two extreme approaches. That’s not balance. Finding a balance is incredibly difficult. Even more so when the populace is so split. Whatever approach we take will piss off half the country and there’s a good chance that the pissed off 50% (or whatever the exact % is) will sabotage the outcome (I actually suspect this is contributing to the second wave; people blatantly not even trying to social distance) It’s a nightmare and I don’t see any easy way out.
The complete crushing appeals because its at least a clear goal, with a definite outcome. But I don’t know how we do that as one country in an inter-dependant region like the EU (and an island with a land border with a separate state, in which the virus is running riot). I can’t even begin to think of what would be involved in isolating ourselves from the UK and the rest of Europe if we went with a zero covid approach. In fact, I don’t think it’s possible. So we are where we are. Up shit’s creek.
What about the signalling power of it though? I thought at first it was a sign of fear / danger in society but surely it's better to just see it as a sign of caution. I'm coming around to the Asian mask culture myself. Sure we don't have the air quality issues so wearing it all the time would be silly, but why not make it a norm in airports when it's so well accepted that people pick up colds and the like on planes, or when it's flu season why not encourage mask use?
I do see it now as a signal that people are taking things seriously. Not that they aren't taking it seriously if they aren't wearing a mask, but you don't know. So why not be helpful and let people know? Other than when you have an unruly beard I don't think you can really make the case that it's unreasonably uncomfortable.
I cant ever see a Zero Covid approach here. We are fecked. If we go to level 5 again the impact on people and the economy will be deep and long lasting. If we let Covid run its course it will be carnage as well.
I am taking it day by day. Working from home and not seeing anyone other than my kids and the parents I say hello to at the school drop offs and pick ups.
Yeah, I think you’re probably right. It’s a divisive enough issue so I don’t want to make people feel bad who do wear a mask (and many do). I’m going to wear one to school pick-up today anyway.
....and stop selling off licence alcohol thats fueling the house parties!
That’s the only way to get through this. Take it a day at a time. You should also try to find stuff to do that you enjoy, if you can. For the sake of your own mental health. You don’t want to wish away months of your life you’ll never get back. God knows watching the poxy football team we support won’t bring much joy in the weeks ahead!
I read it, still no excuse. How it is done is to import into database immediately, with no intermediaries. Any other apps that use the data can then read from the database.
Why is it done like that?
Well, exactly because of situations such as this.
I genuinely believe Boris was on the way to achieving this early on in the fiasco. The turning point in my attitude and many others from what i saw, was when CUMMINGS was rumbled going against government advice and was defended by Boris, rather than publicly shamed.
There was an opportunity there to set the precedent. Instead it was shrugged off.
Agree with that completely. Heavy handed measures threaten to destroy the economy, destroy the futures of millions and kill as many, if not more than the virus. And it'll hit the poor first and hardest.
Your first point is spot on too. My local area is now in a local lockdown and it's causing chaos for a lot of businesses. The inability to plan is the worst part of it.
I personally don't think it's viable to "crush this". Clearly a three month plus lockdown was always going to, and did, massively reduce transmission. Obviously, once people start moving around again it starts to spread. I don't understand why people are surprised by this. The idea however that we can close down whole swathes of the economy for extended periods is a nonsense. There's a reason why the furlough scheme has ended - we can't afford it.
Whilst the government response to this can be rightly criticised, no country in the world has managed to unlock this. The Countries lauded at the outset are either now in difficulty, or face problems down the line in terms of the inability to open up again. Nobody has the answer.
It's not nice to admit but there is a balance that leads to an acceptable number of deaths. That's just how it is.
That is something very few countries have articulated and probably why there has been so much of a chaotic shit show.
NZ targeted elimination (go Jacinta) but even Australia doesn't really have a federal aim. They say elimination isn't an aim but don't say what is. The State governments do seem to all want elimination and this seems to have restricted #Scottyfrommarketing's worst BoJo like instincts. Barring Victoria we haven't had a case of community transmission in well over a week and Victoria is down to just over 10 per day.