SARS CoV-2 coronavirus / Covid-19 (No tin foil hat silliness please)

Not that surprising to me given the figures that were coming out of NI during the week (though I'm sure that's not the metric they use to decide these things).

There's going to be much less buy-in this time than the first time around. Even from normal people, let alone the type of clowns who were protesting on Grafton Street the other day.
 
sullydnl said:
Not that surprising to me given the figures that were coming out of NI during the week (though I'm sure that's not the metric they use to decide these things).

There's going to be much less buy-in this time than the first time around. Even from normal people, let alone the type of clowns who were protesting on Grafton Street the other day.
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I’m not anticipating any clapping on the front step, that’s for damn sure. Devastating blow to small business owners. Feel so sorry for them.
 
Pogue Mahone said:
I think they might push back on this one. At least for another couple of weeks. They must know how unpopular a decision it would be.
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Wonder if NPHET are politically-minded enough to recommend level 5 knowing it will be rejected but in turn make level 4 more palatable.

Also not sure what I actually want to happen. Politicians following the experts' advice or making their own calls to the contrary.
 
sullydnl said:
Wonder if NPHET are politically-minded enough to recommend level 5 knowing it will be rejected but in turn make level 4 more palatable.

Also not sure what I actually want to happen. Politicians following the experts' advice or making their own calls to the contrary.
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The political element is a necessity. The economy and other activities like education and healthcare are interconnected and the world can't stop turning. Particularly as compliance over the longterm (many more months as a minimum) will matter. Compliance needs cooperation.
 
sullydnl said:


Wonder if NPHET are politically-minded enough to recommend level 5 knowing it will be rejected but in turn make level 4 more palatable.

Also not sure what I actually want to happen. Politicians following the experts' advice or making their own calls to the contrary.
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Yeah, I’m torn too. My faith in experts (in this specific context) has been eroded by the “zero covid” crew. It’s always felt like a completely unrealistic goal for any single EU country and pissed me off when they kept banging on about it. Plus total lockdown with schools still open feels like a total fudge. And I’m a parent, who desperately wants schools to stay open. I just think nobody knows the best way to navigate out of this. They’re all making it up as they go along.
 
Why is closing schools again seen as such a huge negative? It won’t really have a long term impact on children IMO. They are very adaptable. I get that it’s inconvenient for parents but if everything is going to be shut anyway then there shouldn’t be a hesitation.
 
BluesJr said:
Why is closing schools again seen as such a huge negative? It won’t really have a long term impact on children IMO. They are very adaptable. I get that it’s inconvenient for parents but if everything is going to be shut anyway then there shouldn’t be a hesitation.
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Hmmm, is that true? I would have thought that young kids would be quite impacted by disrupted learning and not being able to see their friends. Especially those who are too young to really understand what's going on.

Given how many adults seem to struggle with lockdown, I would have thought children would also be impacted given they are less emotionally developed.
 
Pogue Mahone said:
That vaccine story is just common sense really.

The data upload stuff is a bit mad. Uk figures will off the charts for a day or two. Absolutely crazy that recent surge in cases has been an underestimate!
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Reliably informed that some of the Spurs goals today actually occurred in previous games and went unreported at the time... :wenger:
 
sullydnl said:
Hmmm, is that true? I would have thought that young kids would be quite impacted by disrupted learning and not being able to see their friends. Especially those who are too young to really understand what's going on.

Given how many adults seem to struggle with lockdown, I would have thought children would also be impacted given they are less emotionally developed.
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I’m only speaking from my own experience as a guitar teacher who teaches a lot of kids online now from various backgrounds and they were all largely unaffected by the previous lockdown and loved being off school with more time to do stuff they enjoy while obviously still doing school work.
 
Public Health England provided a breakdown of how many cases were not included in each day’s figures, which are as follows:
957 cases were not included on September 25, when the original figure given was 6,874
744 on September 26, when the original figure given was 6,042
757 on September 27, when the original figure given was 5,693
none on September 28, when the original figure given was 4,044
1,415 on September 29, when the original figure given was 7,143
3,049 on September 30, when the original figure given was 7,108
4,133 on October 1, when the original figure given was 6,914
4,786 on October 2, when the original figure given was 6,968
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Fecking hell.
 
Just the 22k today then.

So it would seem the last week of 7k a day was really about 10k
 
What's the chances that the cases added today and yesterday that were missed last week we're reported to the individuals as negative results ? If so that's a lot of people that haven't been self isolating (through no fault of their own)
 
acnumber9 said:
I said no difference when going to work etc. I thought it was implied with the etc. And when I expanded my point you accused me of changing goalposts. You have a stick up your arse about this and can’t handle the fact you’re wrong.
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What are you talking about? Quarantine involves preventing infected people from outside a border from moving in. By definition is has to make a difference no matter to what degree.

People going to work inside that border are completely irrelevant to how quarantine works. Quarantine and restricting/not restricting movement within a border are 2 different things even if both can help flatten the curve.

Either you don't understand what quarantine is or you just want to distract from your statement that quarantine doesn't work.

acnumber9 said:
Quarantining people coming from countries with similar infection levels to our own country couldn’t make any difference when people staying in the UK can still go to work etc.
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Quarantine prevents additional infections from being imported so lowers the infection rate inside the border because there are fewer infected people who would otherwise have gone on to infect others, who infect others etc. Restricting movement within a border lowers the Ro as do other measures like social distancing.

Quarantine helps stop things getting worse and protect any gains made. Active measures like movement restrictions and social distancing can give those gains. However, you need to apply a range of measures to really suceed. The UK lockdown wasn't a huge success largely because of the lack of border closures or even a quarantine.
 
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Wibble said:
What are you talking about. Quarantine involves preventing infected people from outside a border from moving in. By definition is has to make a difference no matter to what degree.

People going to work inside that border are completely irrelevant. Either you don't understand what quarantine is or you just want to distract from your statement that quarantine doesn't work.
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They aren’t irrelevant if they’re spreading the virus as much, or more, than those coming from outside the border. I can’t believe you’re still arguing this point. I understand perfectly what it is thanks. You aren’t as smart as you think you are. Where is the evidence that quarantine has worked in the UK?
 
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acnumber9 said:
They aren’t irrelevant if they’re spreading the virus as much, or more, than those coming from outside the border. I can’t believe you’re still arguing this point. I understand perfectly what it is thanks. You aren’t as smart as you think you are. Where is the evidence that quarantine has worked in the UK?
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Of course they aren't irrelevant. These are additional cases to those inside the border not instead of. The spread due to people already in the UK will remains broadly the same. Add more cases from outside the country who then spread it to others who then spread it to others. All on top of the existing numbers. No matter the infection rate in each country no quarantine = more cases (unless flying direct from NZ or one of the Pacific Islands with no cases).

The UK didn't bother with any sort of quarantine for a long time and when it did it was only self isolating at home. Which is better than nothing but well short of an actual quarantine.

Are you really suggesting that the UK is somehow so different that such a basic disease control measure, that has been succesfully used worldwide since at least the 1600s, doesn't now work?

Taiwan, Australia, NZ and many other countries who have been succesful in controlling the virus have used real quarantine to great effect. To say is doesnt work is ludicrous.
 
Wibble said:
Of course they aren't irrelevant. These are additional cases to those inside the border not instead of. The spread due to people already in the UK will remains broadly the same. Add more cases from outside the country who then spread it to others who then spread it to others. All on top of the existing numbers. No matter the infection rate in each country no quarantine = more cases (unless flying direct from NZ or one of the Pacific Islands with no cases).

The UK didn't bother with any sort of quarantine for a long time and when it did it was only self isolating at home. Which is better than nothing but well short of an actual quarantine.

Are you really suggesting that the UK is somehow so different that such a basic disease control measure, that has been succesfully used worldwide since at least the 1600s, doesn't now work?

Taiwan, Australia, NZ and many other countries who have been succesful in controlling the virus have used real quarantine to great effect. To say is doesnt work is ludicrous.
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That isn't what he's saying. He's saying quarantine when cases are at a very low level domestically makes a big difference, quarantine when cases are at a high level in the country already does not make a big difference. Like contact tracing. Size matters. So when the epidemiological impact is relatively lessened, then the cost / benefit analysis changes slightly.

The UK is more similar to most other countries in the world on that choice than Australia. That's not an assessment of right or wrong, context matters as much as you'd like to pretend otherwise, it's just a refutation of the notion UK are uniquely positioned on this. That's not an uncommon view, your myopia in the subject just means you screen out the experts saying it and the logic underpinning it.

Why bother engaging in discussions when all you're doing is ramming home the same point, and dismissing all other viewpoints without consideration? You have a different view to the vast majority of people. That much is firmly established. Beating people over the head with it is a bit self indulgent.
 
jymufc20 said:
What's the chances that the cases added today and yesterday that were missed last week we're reported to the individuals as negative results ? If so that's a lot of people that haven't been self isolating (through no fault of their own)
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The so called technical glitch resulted in over 16,000 cases not being captured. And of course those people who had been close to them and potentially infected not being contacted.
It is therefore fortunate that the UK actually has a ' world class ' test and trace system is it not.
 
Wibble said:
This can't be good

https://www.bbc.com/news/uk-northern-ireland-54409368
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While I'm not sure Sinn Feins stance that the island of Ireland needs to lock down at the same time to be effective is a sincere stance as they've used this virus and every other issue as a reason for an United Ireland, which I think shouldn't even be in anyones thoughts until after this is under control. But I do agree I think in the fight against the virus the Lockdown needs to be island wide for best results.
 
Buster15 said:
The so called technical glitch resulted in over 16,000 cases not being captured. And of course those people who had been close to them and potentially infected not being contacted.
It is therefore fortunate that the UK actually has a ' world class ' test and trace system is it not.
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My god we are doomed.
 
acnumber9 said:
They aren’t irrelevant if they’re spreading the virus as much, or more, than those coming from outside the border. I can’t believe you’re still arguing this point. I understand perfectly what it is thanks. You aren’t as smart as you think you are. Where is the evidence that quarantine has worked in the UK?
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Agree with this. What matter is the probability of infection and if that's the same domestically and internationally, then there's no point in it.

It makes sense for countries like NZ.
 
Brwned said:
That isn't what he's saying. He's saying quarantine when cases are at a very low level domestically makes a big difference, quarantine when cases are at a high level in the country already does not make a big difference. Like contact tracing. Size matters. So when the epidemiological impact is relatively lessened, then the cost / benefit analysis changes slightly.

The UK is more similar to most other countries in the world on that choice than Australia. That's not an assessment of right or wrong, context matters as much as you'd like to pretend otherwise, it's just a refutation of the notion UK are uniquely positioned on this. That's not an uncommon view, your myopia in the subject just means you screen out the experts saying it and the logic underpinning it.

Why bother engaging in discussions when all you're doing is ramming home the same point, and dismissing all other viewpoints without consideration? You have a different view to the vast majority of people. That much is firmly established. Beating people over the head with it is a bit self indulgent.
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That it exactly when he first said. A straight out statement that quarantine doesn't work. He has changed his point a couple of times without acknowledging that his original point wasn't correct. And it is an important distinction. Fighting a pandemic involves many measures and dismissing such an important one out of hand is unhelpful at best.

And contact tracing potentially helps massively no matter the scale of the infection but it is practically impossible in current circumstances with our current technology and the huge numbers of infections in many countries. A pandemic needs a large range of measures and each little bit helps but no one works on its own. Our woeful lack of preparation has also been a huge factor.

Nowhere have I suggested that the UK could or will shut the border and without that a proper quarantine is almost impossible to enforce, without vastly restricting the number of people arriving at each airport per day and there is no appetite for that either. They have fecked it up so badly I have no idea where they should go from here. And if you aren't going to totally shut your borders and/or impose a proper qusrantine then of course allowing people in from countries with similar or lower infection rates is better than countries with higher infection rates. But that is not the opinion I disputed no matter how much he would like to pretend it is.
 
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Pogue Mahone said:
Fecking hell.
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This is a joke on so many levels.

So many people will be lured into a false sense of security, thinking that numbers aren't rising, when in reality we jumped up massively the last few days.

And other people will just ignore the numbers from now on, as they can't be trusted.
 
Pogue Mahone said:
I think they might push back on this one. At least for another couple of weeks. They must know how unpopular a decision it would be.
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I think they will go level 4.
I think we may see an extended Halloween break for schools too
Good to see tony holohan back and taking command. He just exudes control
 
sullydnl said:


Wonder if NPHET are politically-minded enough to recommend level 5 knowing it will be rejected but in turn make level 4 more palatable.

Also not sure what I actually want to happen. Politicians following the experts' advice or making their own calls to the contrary.
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Perhaps level 4/5 for Dublin and Donegal
Level 3 for the others
A warning to the other counties to get their shit in order
 
Pogue Mahone said:
Yeah, I’m torn too. My faith in experts (in this specific context) has been eroded by the “zero covid” crew. It’s always felt like a completely unrealistic goal for any single EU country and pissed me off when they kept banging on about it. Plus total lockdown with schools still open feels like a total fudge. And I’m a parent, who desperately wants schools to stay open. I just think nobody knows the best way to navigate out of this. They’re all making it up as they go along.
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We’re on the verge of level 5 and dropping the kids off there are still quite a large proportion wearing no masks. The school area must be a breeding ground for passing viruses around. I see some parents sniffling, sneezing and blowing their noses. It’s crazy. I wish they would make it mandatory to wear masks on school grounds and if you don’t then your kid can’t come into school, it’s not fair on those of us who want their kids to go to school but are delicately trying to balance with medical cocooning
 
So I think I'm right in saying that level 4 in Ireland is stay in your own county and level 5 is stay within 2kms of your own house?

Kind of dreading this announcement later if I'm honest.
 
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