SARS CoV-2 coronavirus / Covid-19 (No tin foil hat silliness please)

Carolina Red said:
So my wife treated a patient about 10 days ago that had been in East Asia a week prior.

She now has come down with symptoms of a fever, runny nose, cough with phlegm, and mild respiratory trouble.

Yay
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Hope you guys are ok. Try to get tested.
 
MikeUpNorth said:
Pretty much inevitable at this point I’d say. This whole year will be a write off for the world. Not just in football.
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Yeah, I think so. Gonna be a lost year after all.

It was madness to expect that life will go on as usual.
 
Utdstar01 said:
Be interesting to know what the demographics were behind those 7,132 tested.
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Most testing effort in Italy will be in the highly areas. Also sick people will be the most frequently tested. So if the answer is close to "How many people in Lombardi who were tested because they were sick" then the 5% figure is less surprising and scary.
 
2cents said:
@africanspur @Avatar you know anything about the situation in Egypt? Starting to see it mentioned more and more as a possible bad spot, despite official government denials.
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Sorry for the late reply.

59 cases, like half of them are foreigners. The first outbreak/cluster seems to have come from a tourist boat near Luxor.
One death, a 60 year old German tourist.

Many of us don't trust our government's numbers though. Not as regards fatalities, but as regards the number of infected cases.
 
Given that Europe appears to have basically accepted its fate at this point... are we now just in a race for effective antivirals, and perhaps a vaccine (if it’s scientifically possible)?
 
balaks said:
Vaccine will take months.
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Years more likely. If it’s even possible. There are good reasons why a safe vaccine hasn’t been possible for SARS despite nearly 20 years of trying.
 
MikeUpNorth said:
Given that Europe appears to have basically accepted its fate at this point... are we now just in a race for effective antivirals, and perhaps a vaccine (if it’s scientifically possible)?
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My assumption was we're praying for warm weather so that we have time before autumn to come up with a plan.
 
MikeUpNorth said:
Given that Europe appears to have basically accepted its fate at this point... are we now just in a race for effective antivirals, and perhaps a vaccine (if it’s scientifically possible)?
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While different vaccines are already in lite-testing (not in humans yet), the estimates say 12-18 months for a vaccine. Of course, we do not know for sure if a vaccine will happen in the first place (there are no SARS/MERS vaccinnes, though the interest for a SARS2 vaccine is gonna be much higher).

Anti-virals hopefully sooner.
 
Find all the ‘lost year’ and ‘write off’ comments almost as baffling as the general panic and worry that people are going to die. We all die. Some naturally, some in tragic circumstances. Some way too soon, some probably way too long.

I don’t understand people wanting to halt absolutely everything in life because they hope it’ll get better. It’s such an odd way to live your life, worried about things you have no control over.
 
Wibble said:
Or never. We haven't managed to make one for SARS or MERS.
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True, but not many people have been working on it. SARS was essentially eradicated so there was no economical benefit on actively doing research on it. For this one, people will be working, so I guess it is likely that an effective vaccine will be discovered within next year.

However, I read that won't necessarily be enough. Apparently, the world has a capacity of 900 million doses per year or so (not sure how reliable), so even if a vaccine is found, probably not everyone (or even the majority) will get vaccinated.

I guess the strategy is hope for a miracle (which could be costly like Spanish flu, or not that costly like swine flu). The worst case is if this becomes endemic and attacks us every year. Maybe it is mother's Nature solution to global warming.
 
VintageWhatnots said:
Is it?

After 22 days we were at just over 300 cases, after the same amount of time Italy was over 5000.

Italy's seems to be growing at a much faster rate. Which is horrific for Italy, but very good news for us.
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I do not think that is what is happening.

End of January:
- Virus spreads from Wuhan to many places around the world, by relatively few people.
- This would explain first cases in UK, Germany, Italy etc.
- since it were few people and we already knew Wuhan/China was a hotspot, in most places these initial infections were contained, or developed very insidiously. Except Italy.

Fast forward two weeks and you're getting an explosion in Italy and a new wave of new cases all over the place.

These few cases outside Italy were fed by Otaly itself, China, Korea, etc... But this time they stuck. It were now too many people to contain.

There are many alternative explanations obviously. But to me it seems almost certain that the first few cases in the end of January were an anomaly everywhere except Italy. So to compare both spreads for your country (if in Europe) you have to start a bit later in these countries.

Basically I think if this was a race, Italy is ahead because they started earlier, not because they are running faster.
 
Revan said:
While different vaccines are already in lite-testing (not in humans yet), the estimates say 12-18 months for a vaccine. Of course, we do not know for sure if a vaccine will happen in the first place (there are no SARS/MERS vaccinnes, though the interest for a SARS2 vaccine is gonna be much higher).

Anti-virals hopefully sooner.
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A vaccine will be possible in the sense that we can make a compound which forces the body to generate the appropriate antibodies, that isn’t the issue. The difficulty is making a safe vaccine due to Antibody Dependent Enhancement - basically meaning the body will generate the same (now wrong) antibodies for similar viruses or slight mutations, ensuring the virus kills the victim.

https://www.biocentury.com/article/...s-stimulating-global-scientific-collaboration
 
Starkie_1 said:
Find all the ‘lost year’ and ‘write off’ comments almost as baffling as the general panic and worry that people are going to die. We all die. Some naturally, some in tragic circumstances. Some way too soon, some probably way too long.

I don’t understand people wanting to halt absolutely everything in life because they hope it’ll get better. It’s such an odd way to live your life, worried about things you have no control over.
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For the love of...
 
Carolina Red said:
So my wife treated a patient about 10 days ago that had been in Beijing a week prior.

She now has come down with symptoms of a fever, runny nose, cough with phlegm, and mild respiratory trouble.

Yay
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did she have muscle pain and fatigue to ? those are the main symptoms after fewer
hope for the best
 
Arruda said:
I do not think that is what is happening.

End of January:
- Virus spreads from Wuhan to many places around the world, by relatively few people
- this would explain first cases in UK, Germany, Italy etc
- since it were few people and we already knew Wuhan/China was a hotspot, in most places these initial infections were contained, or developed very insidiously. Except Italy

Fast forward two weeks and you're getting an explosion in Italy and a new wave of new cases all over the place.

These few cases outside Italy were fed by Otaly itself, China, Korea, etc... But this time they stuck. It was ti many people.

There are many alternative explanations obviously. But to me it seems almost certain that the first few cases in the end of January were an anomaly everywhere except Italy. So to compare both spreads for your country (if in Europe) you have to start a but later in these countries.

Basically I think if this was a race, Italy is ahead because they started earlier, not because they are running faster.
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Absolutely. They are doing as bad as the other states, just that they started earlier. Entire Europe/US is gonna be in the same scenario soon.

I wonder how is the situation in South America / Africa, and why so few infected people? Not reported, not much travel going on, or really the warm weather is gonna save us.
 
Look, we're all gonna die one way or another. Why are we wasting time looking before we cross the road? Just live your life, man!
 
MikeUpNorth said:
A vaccine will be possible in the sense that we can make a compound which forces the body to generate the appropriate antibodies, that isn’t the issue. The difficulty is making a safe vaccine due to Antibody Dependent Enhancement - basically meaning the body will generate the same (now wrong) antibodies for similar viruses or slight mutations, ensuring the virus kills the victim.

https://www.biocentury.com/article/...s-stimulating-global-scientific-collaboration
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Yep, thanks for the link.
 
Revan said:
Absolutely. They are doing as bad as the other states, just that they started earlier. Entire Europe/US is gonna be in the same scenario soon.

I wonder how is the situation in South America / Africa, and why so few infected people? Not reported, not much travel going on, or really the warm weather is gonna save us.
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I especially worry about US. We've Trump in charge and his fecking idiot supporters who hang on his every word.

 
botond said:
did she have muscle pain and fatigue to ? those are the main symptoms after fewer
hope for the best
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Oh yes. Hasn’t been able to get out of bed. Called out of work the last 2 days... probably for the best since her work is the Intensive Care Unit.
 
The fatality rate in South Korea is 0.007%, the closest to seasonal flu, despite it having 7K+ cases.
This gives hope that with proper measures, the death rate could be minimized.

The cure rate there is not hight yetthough 2.2%, but of the currently active cases 7259, only 36 are in serious/critical condition.

I care more about the fatality rate.The spread is harder to control imo.
 
Starkie_1 said:
I’d say you have a lot of control looking left and right and choosing to take a step out into the road. (If you dont I apologise for not realising your disability).
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The spread of viruses is not beyond control. It is affected by what we do.
 
Carolina Red said:
Oh yes. Hasn’t been able to get out of bed. Called out of work the last 2 days... probably for the best since her work is the Intensive Care Unit.
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you should go in quarantine until she is getting tested , if she is positive then you are to for sure
 
Carolina Red said:
So my wife treated a patient about 10 days ago that had been in Beijing a week prior.

She now has come down with symptoms of a fever, runny nose, cough with phlegm, and mild respiratory trouble.

Yay
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bloody hell hopefully not it but take care man.
 
Avatar said:
The fatality rate in South Korea is 0.007%, the closest to seasonal flu, despite it having 7K+ cases.
This gives hope that with proper measures, the death rate could be minimized.

The cure rate there is not hight yetthough 2.2%, but of the currently active cases 7259, only 36 are in serious/critical condition.

I care more about the fatality rate.The spread is harder to control imo.
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Unfortunately, you are wrong. It is 0.007 or 0.7%, 7 times higher than that of seasonal flu.

Source: https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/
 
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