Jeremy Corbyn - Not Not Labour Party(?), not a Communist (BBC)

[nickm]

Yeah that really isn't the own you think it is.

Sometimes I read your stuff and wonder how much you really want power. I suspect the answer is “not enough” - easier to take refuge in ideological purity than the messy trade offs required in government.

Wait til a lib-lab coalition is up for grabs after the next election, I can’t wait to see your reaction to that.

 

[BobbyManc]

In any referendum, the Lib Dems would campaign for remain. Labour would campaign for its own Brexit (details currently unknown). These are stated positions. Tell me again why remainers should support labour over the Lib Dem’s?

Ok, so good to see we agree that the Lib Dem approach to stopping Brexit is essentially the same as Labour's.

I never claimed Remainers should support Labour over the Lib Dems. If you are a voter who sees membership of the EU and stopping Brexit as taking precedence over everything else, then you have good reason to consider voting Lib Dem over Labour.

Edit - also Labour's policy on whether it would campaign for Remain or its own deal should it gain power has not actually been stated, as far as I'm aware. The last I read was that if they found themselves in that scenario then it would be debated internally before an agreed position was reached.

 

[golden_blunder]

https://www.markpack.org.uk/opinion-polls/

I don't know how reliable this guy is, but downloading his opinion poll history it looks like recently Labour have been polling the worst of any time since his records began, in 1943, and not just the worst but considerably the worst. I get the Brexit party didn't exist in the past but a whole shedload of things have happened in 75 years that Labour have somehow managed to deal with a whole lot better than now. Something's wrong with the Labour party and if they're going to get anywhere they need to figure out and address what it is, and that doesn't just mean blaming everyone else.

The leader has a lack of balls.

My mother-in-law, member of Labour Party and Labour voter for nearly 70 years, her father was a Labour councilor - she dislikes JC with a passion, thinks he’s a terrible leader. I dare say it’s a view shared by many. The problem is she will still vote Labour so he thinks he’s got the backing

 

[nickm]

Edit - also Labour's policy on whether it would campaign for Remain or its own deal should it gain power has not actually been stated, as far as I'm aware. The last I read was that if they found themselves in that scenario then it would be debated internally before an agreed position was reached.

Well ok but the prospect that labour wouldn’t advocate the deal it negotiated just isn’t credible (and it’d be seen as such by the electorate). The only way it might be is if labour got rid of the leadership at some point in the process, bit like the tories.

 

[BobbyManc]

Well ok but the prospect that labour wouldn’t advocate the deal it negotiated just isn’t credible (and it’d be seen as such by the electorate). The only way it might be is if labour got rid of the leadership at some point in the process, bit like the tories.

Why would trying to secure a "better" deal before putting it to the people again be any less credible than the Lib Dems just putting the Tory deal to the people and praying that they get the answer they want this time?

 

[Shamwow]

Why would trying to secure a "better" deal before putting it to the people again be any less credible than the Lib Dems just putting the Tory deal to the people and praying that they get the answer they want this time?

Because it's easier to take refuge in ideological purity than the messy trade offs required in government or something.

 

[nickm]

Why would trying to secure a "better" deal before putting it to the people again be any less credible than the Lib Dems just putting the Tory deal to the people and praying that they get the answer they want this time?

I said, labour not backing its own deal in a referendum, wouldn’t be credible. Please keep up.

 

[nickm]

Because it's easier to take refuge in ideological purity than the messy trade offs required in government or something.

24% in the polls mate, 10 points behind. You are going nowhere.

 

[Sweet Square]

 

[Shamwow]

24% in the polls mate, 10 points behind. You are going nowhere.

Shit man I had no idea. I better vote Lib Dem in that case.

 

[Foxbatt]

Jeremy Corbin has been a great disappointment. He had a lot going for him and he let it pass. Now is the time for someone else.

 

[Cheesy]

How does that figure compare to previous elections etc? While they bucked the trend with their semi-comeback in 2017 there's obviously often been a bit of a trope that older committed Tories are ultimately a lot more likely to go out than Labour voter, unless they're really enthused. And as it stands it'll take a very strong campaign to turn things around and get them enthused.

Would also be useful to see the Lib Dem figure there too for how their likely their supporters are to vote.

 

[berbatrick]

ASAP, the Labour left (Momentum etc) needs to find an ideologically good candidate with a pro-Remain record and replace Corbyn. Corbyn's strategy worked vs May, it won't against Johnson, and the polling proves both bits of that.

 

[Jacko21]

ASAP, the Labour left (Momentum etc) needs to find an ideologically good candidate with a pro-Remain record and replace Corbyn. Corbyn's strategy worked vs May, it won't against Johnson, and the polling proves both bits of that.

Momentum exists because of Corbyn. They are his foot soldiers.

 

[berbatrick]

Momentum exists because of Corbyn. They are his foot soldiers.

They are a left faction within Labour that became possible only after he became leader. If he is harming the party's prospects, and I believe he is once Boris became PM, they need to look at ways to remove him.

 

[Jacko21]

They are a left faction within Labour that became possible only after he became leader. If he is harming the party's prospects, and I believe he is once Boris became PM, they need to look at ways to remove him.

I don't disagree. But Momentum are more likely to go down with a sinking ship than admit they might need to change course.

 

[Sweet Square]

How does that figure compare to previous elections etc?

Yeah I'm too lazy to look this one up. Sorry.

And as it stands it'll take a very strong campaign to turn things around and get them enthused.

That was always going to be the case in fairness.

ASAP, the Labour left (Momentum etc) needs to find an ideologically good candidate with a pro-Remain record and replace Corbyn. Corbyn's strategy worked vs May, it won't against Johnson, and the polling proves both bits of that.

Nah people are jumping the gun a little with regards to old Boris being PM. He will face the same issues has May did during the last election(Worth saying that before and at the start of the last election everyone thought May was a brilliant, tough political opponent).

This issues are long standing and intrench into the Thatcherite politics, which is the dominate thought it in the tory party(Brexit has shown the more right elements of the tory party have got nothing). Boris projects the possibly of a more ''one nation''toryism in his speeches(Just like May did)but look at who's in the cabinet and the links it to the tax payers alliance.

All of this doesn't make a tory win impossible but its in no way a easy task.

 

[jeff_goldblum]

I don't disagree. But Momentum are more likely to go down with a sinking ship than admit they might need to change course.

I think that's a misunderstanding of what Momentum is. There's certainly a large (generally older CND/Militant bunch) 'Jeremy or bust' camp within Momentum who would see any push for Corbyn to step aside as a betrayal regardless of whether it came from left or right, but these people aren't a majority within Momentum or the Labour Left in general. They're just the people who have the loudest, least nuanced opinions and who therefore get the most attention. Empty cans rattle loudest, as the old adage goes. The vast majority of people I know who are affiliated or active in Momentum are Remainers in their 20s who are capable of holding nuanced opinions and would happily back any 'left' candidate going forwards if Corbyn was to step-down.

There are obvious reasons that no-one on the left is pushing for a change of leader. The elephant in the room is that the media and figures on the right of the party will come at any vaguely left-wing Labour leader just as hard as they've come at Corbyn (they're already coming at young left-wing MPs like Laura Pidcock with the same attack lines they use on Corbyn, despite the fact that she has none of Corbyn's baggage or dodgy associations). Another leadership election would be a couple of months of brutal in-fighting and awful press coverage, after which we'd be back to square one with a left-wing leader being constantly undermined by members of their own party in Parliament. All of this distracting from the Tory-caused crisis we're knee-deep in and with a possible snap election on the way.

I'm as frustrated as anyone with Corbyn's irritating fence-sitting re: Brexit, but at this stage all factions need to look at the bigger picture and pull together instead of flexing their egos, the right of PLP would do well to look to the recent past and realise that had they not thrown their toys out of the pram for two solid years following Corbyn's election, the 2017 election would probably have delivered a Remain majority in parliament instead of a razor-thin Leave one. Boris will be a disaster as PM and Tory leader and if Labour can't manage not to shit itself for a few months it will be looking good going into any future election.

 

[Sweet Square]

I think that's a misunderstanding of what Momentum is. There's certainly a large (generally older CND/Militant bunch) 'Jeremy or bust' camp within Momentum who would see any push for Corbyn to step aside as a betrayal regardless of whether it came from left or right, but these people aren't a majority within Momentum or the Labour Left in general. They're just the people who have the loudest, least nuanced opinions and who therefore get the most attention. Empty cans rattle loudest, as the old adage goes. The vast majority of people I know who are affiliated or active in Momentum are Remainers in their 20s who are capable of holding nuanced opinions and would happily back any 'left' candidate going forwards if Corbyn was to step-down.

Pretty much. If people just look at the polices they are pushing, they quite similar to the progressive stuff in the US like AOC.

Yet nearly 5 years on and its still lefty ''foot soldiers''.

 

[berbatrick]

Yeah I'm too lazy to look this one up. Sorry.


That was always going to be the case in fairness.


Nah people are jumping the gun a little with regards to old Boris being PM. He will face the same issues has May did during the last election(Worth saying that before and at the start of the last election everyone thought May was a brilliant, tough political opponent).

This issues are long standing and intrench into the Thatcherite politics, which is the dominate thought it in the tory party(Brexit has shown the more right elements of the tory party have got nothing). Boris projects the possibly of a more ''one nation''toryism in his speeches(Just like May did)but look at who's in the cabinet and the links it to the tax payers alliance.

All of this doesn't make a tory win impossible but its in no way a easy task.

I think with Boris, politics is indeed polarised according to Brexit. There is a mainstream unambiguous Brexit party with a 52+~10% ceiling. The 48+~10 vote is split between 2, unless the other mainstream party goes for it (may not be possible).

 

[711]

I think that's a misunderstanding of what Momentum is. There's certainly a large (generally older CND/Militant bunch) 'Jeremy or bust' camp within Momentum who would see any push for Corbyn to step aside as a betrayal regardless of whether it came from left or right, but these people aren't a majority within Momentum or the Labour Left in general. They're just the people who have the loudest, least nuanced opinions and who therefore get the most attention. Empty cans rattle loudest, as the old adage goes. The vast majority of people I know who are affiliated or active in Momentum are Remainers in their 20s who are capable of holding nuanced opinions and would happily back any 'left' candidate going forwards if Corbyn was to step-down.

There are obvious reasons that no-one on the left is pushing for a change of leader. The elephant in the room is that the media and figures on the right of the party will come at any vaguely left-wing Labour leader just as hard as they've come at Corbyn (they're already coming at young left-wing MPs like Laura Pidcock with the same attack lines they use on Corbyn, despite the fact that she has none of Corbyn's baggage or dodgy associations). Another leadership election would be a couple of months of brutal in-fighting and awful press coverage, after which we'd be back to square one with a left-wing leader being constantly undermined by members of their own party in Parliament. All of this distracting from the Tory-caused crisis we're knee-deep in and with a possible snap election on the way.

I'm as frustrated as anyone with Corbyn's irritating fence-sitting re: Brexit, but at this stage all factions need to look at the bigger picture and pull together instead of flexing their egos, the right of PLP would do well to look to the recent past and realise that had they not thrown their toys out of the pram for two solid years following Corbyn's election, the 2017 election would probably have delivered a Remain majority in parliament instead of a razor-thin Leave one. Boris will be a disaster as PM and Tory leader and if Labour can't manage not to shit itself for a few months it will be looking good going into any future election.

That would be the election Labour stood on a Leave manifesto promising to honour Brexit? It was all very nuanced I suppose.

 

[Jacko21]

I think that's a misunderstanding of what Momentum is.

Yet nearly 5 years on and its still lefty ''foot soldiers''.

That's interesting to me.

Although I guess it doesn't help that Momentum exist because of Lansman, a key Corbyn ally and the man who helped propel him to the top.

 

[Sweet Square]

I think with Boris, politics is indeed polarised according to Brexit. There is a mainstream unambiguous Brexit party with a 52+~10% ceiling. The 48+~10 vote is split between 2, unless the other mainstream party goes for it (may not be possible).

It will depend on how much of the election will be about Brexit. With it around the corner at the end of October, it will of course be talked about but I can't see it being the only focus(Not to forget the tories will have to this time activity run on a no deal brexit). Given the way our news functions and that one party(Labour) will trying to talk about anything other than Brexit.

Edit - example the by election last night

Buoyant Lib Dems keep quiet on Brexit in Brecon and Radnorshire

https://www.theguardian.com/politic...s-to-brexit-brecon-and-radnorshire-byelection

“The first thing that I’m clear about is that a no-deal Brexit must be taken off the table,” says Dodds, drinking coffee in the sunshine in Crickhowell before a day of canvassing. “But beyond that, people do know what the Lib Dem position is, though – we aren’t dishonest about that – and they know we are a remain party who will campaign for a ‘people’s vote’.”

Christ she sounds like Corbyn


That's if we even get a general election before October.

That's interesting to me.

Although I guess it doesn't help that Momentum exist because of Lansman, a key Corbyn ally and the man who helped propel him to the top.

Er what ?

 

[Jacko21]

Er what ?

What's the issue?

 

[Sweet Square]

What's the issue?

What is your point ?

You thinking Momentum are some far left ''foot soldiers'' has got nothing to do Lansman but your lack of knowledge on the subject. Also Lansman didn't help ''propel'' Corbyn to the top. They are both people on the labour left who have so far put together successful socialist political campaigns.

 

[Jacko21]

What is your point ?

You thinking Momentum are some far left ''foot soldiers'' has got nothing to do Lansman but your lack of knowledge on the subject. Also Lansman didn't help ''propel'' Corbyn to the top. They are both people on the labour left who have so far put together successful socialist political campaigns.

You used the term 'far left'. Not me.

Okay, Lansman had no involvement in 2015...

 

[Cheesy]

They are a left faction within Labour that became possible only after he became leader. If he is harming the party's prospects, and I believe he is once Boris became PM, they need to look at ways to remove him.

I'm unsure how people can come to any other conclusion when his polling is historically unpopular for an opposition leader. Any left-wing leader is going to get attacked by the press but it doesn't negate the fact that Corbyn's typically not been very good at countering those attacks. Even someone like McDonnell at this stage is a much stronger speaker, and despite his controversial past generally comes across as a more impressive figure. And even if that doesn't work out - it's hard to argue the party should just be staying where they are, for all the pro-Brexit/anti-Brexit debates about the party, if polling is telling us one thing is that Corbyn just...isn't liked. At all. Polling recently had him barely beating out Boris on trust, if at all. And if he can't even come across well in that regard, it's hard to see what he actually offers.

There is, of course, the slim chance he'll turn things around and mount a solid election campaign (because he is a good campaigner) but most of the evidence we have right now suggests he won't become PM. Thinking back, I'm struggling to think of any even remotely recent UK opposition leader (without a previous stint as PM) who started out unpopular, lost an election, continued being unpopular and then later won an election.

 

[jeff_goldblum]

That would be the election Labour stood on a Leave manifesto promising to honour Brexit? It was all very nuanced I suppose.

Not sure how this is relevant. Every Labour MP (including those who are now agitating for a hard Remain position) campaigned under that manifesto. Regardless of the contents of the manifesto, if Labour had come out of 2017 with couple more MPs at the cost of the Tories, we wouldn't be talking about No Deal here in 2019. Policy would have changed (as it has done) as it became increasingly clear that the options were pointless Brexit (staying in custom union) vs. disastrous Brexit (no deal) and we'd be on our way to People's Vote.

 

[Sweet Square]

You used the term 'far left'. Not me.

Foot soldiers sort of implies far left, no ?

Okay, Lansman had no involvement in 2015...

I never said Landman had no involvement in 2015, just the he didn't help ''propel'' Corbyn into winning the leadership contest in 2015 and 2016. Lansman was one of many on both campaigns.

 

[berbatrick]

I'm unsure how people can come to any other conclusion when his polling is historically unpopular for an opposition leader. Any left-wing leader is going to get attacked by the press but it doesn't negate the fact that Corbyn's typically not been very good at countering those attacks. Even someone like McDonnell at this stage is a much stronger speaker, and despite his controversial past generally comes across as a more impressive figure. And even if that doesn't work out - it's hard to argue the party should just be staying where they are, for all the pro-Brexit/anti-Brexit debates about the party, if polling is telling us one thing is that Corbyn just...isn't liked. At all. Polling recently had him barely beating out Boris on trust, if at all. And if he can't even come across well in that regard, it's hard to see what he actually offers.

There is, of course, the slim chance he'll turn things around and mount a solid election campaign (because he is a good campaigner) but most of the evidence we have right now suggests he won't become PM. Thinking back, I'm struggling to think of any even remotely recent UK opposition leader (without a previous stint as PM) who started out unpopular, lost an election, continued being unpopular and then later won an election.

His personal polling was always bad, but the party was doing fine. I don't buy that he was significantly weighing them down, I think the numbers reflected the Brexit confusion of the party and larger electorate, the popularity of the left among younger people, and the hard floor of labour voting support.

This has changed with Boris and I think his appointment changes the contours of the election. Maybe I'm wrong and the actual election will broaden, but I think it's now a straight race between for and anti Brexit - a terrible position for the losing side (remain) especially since it's split.

 

[Jacko21]

Foot soldiers sort of implies far left, no ?

I never said Landman had no involvement in 2015, just the he didn't help ''propel'' Corbyn into winning the leadership contest in 2015 and 2016. Lansman was one of many on a campaign team.

I genuinely used the term 'foot soldiers' in the context of somebody carrying out work in an unofficial capacity.

If the link between Corbyn and Momentum isn't as indelible as you say it is, then I'll take your word for it on the basis that you're likely better placed to make that call.

 

[Cheesy]

His personal polling was always bad, but the party was doing fine. I don't buy that he was significantly weighing them down, I think the numbers reflected the Brexit confusion of the party and larger electorate, the popularity of the left among younger people, and the hard floor of labour voting support.

This has changed with Boris and I think his appointment changes the contours of the election. Maybe I'm wrong and the actual election will broaden, but I think it's now a straight race between for and anti Brexit - a terrible position for the losing side (remain) especially since it's split.

His personal numbers have gotten worse though, indeed his numbers were at his best back in 2017 when he was actually doing alright. I feel like it's hard to argue at this point the party isn't inherently hampered by a leader who is just massively unpopular with the wider electorate.

 

[Kentonio]

It will depend on how much of the election will be about Brexit. With it around the corner at the end of October, it will of course be talked about but I can't see it being the only focus(Not to forget the tories will have to this time activity run on a no deal brexit). Given the way our news functions and that one party(Labour) will trying to talk about anything other than Brexit.

Edit - example the by election last night

Buoyant Lib Dems keep quiet on Brexit in Brecon and Radnorshire

https://www.theguardian.com/politic...s-to-brexit-brecon-and-radnorshire-byelection

Jesus christ man, you really think that an election just weeks before we're due to crash out of Europe will be about anything other than Brexit? The media are going to make it issue 1, 2 and 3 and it will be all that people are talking about. That might not suit Jeremy, but its the simple reality.

As for the election last night, it was a single election in a seat in a Leave area that the Lib Dems were trying to take off the pro-Leave Tories while holding off the Brexit Party. Of course they weren't focusing on Brexit in their campaigning.

 

[Sweet Square]

I genuinely used the term 'foot soldiers' in the context of somebody carrying out work in an unofficial capacity.

Fair enough.

If the link between Corbyn and Momentum isn't as indelible as you say it is, then I'll take your word for it on the basis that you're likely better placed to make that call.

The link of course but thats because Corbyn is still the best left option there is at the moment. It been asked a million times on here who should replace him and the answer is always - er.......I don't know, Corbyn is bad. If Corbyn loses the next election then momentum will have another candidate.

Jesus christ man, you really think that an election just weeks before we're due to crash out of Europe will be about anything other than Brexit? The media are going to make it issue 1, 2 and 3 and it will be all that people are talking about. That might not suit Jeremy, but its the simple reality.

Possibly yes.

The public literally don't care about Brexit as much as people on here do. Labour will have a second referendum position, the tories will mostly have a no deal position(Boris will want to keep it the election on brexit but will move away at times because of how ridiculous his position is)and the Lib Dem will have the same position as labour (Anything more remain-isa is stupid).

After these positions are put forward, general public will want to know who's going to fund invest in public services, fix the housing crisis etc etc. The media due to its need to 1)feel dead air time 2)giving equal time to political parties, can't spend all day and night on brexit.


Again I could be easily wrong(It wouldn't be the first time)but saying its ''simply reality'' won't cut it.

 

[Kentonio]

The public literally don't care about Brexit as much as people on here do.

..

Again I could be easily wrong(It wouldn't be the first time)but saying its ''simply reality'' won't cut it.

Ok, what evidence do you have to support the idea that the public literally don't care about the issue that has dominated the news and politics for the last 3 years?

 

[Cheesy]

Ok, what evidence do you have to support the idea that the public literally don't care about the issue that has dominated the news and politics for the last 3 years?

And likewise, if the public don't care about Brexit then I'd be very intrigued to know why a lot of Labour voters are switching to the Lib Dems.

 

[Sweet Square]

Ok, what evidence do you have to support the idea that the public literally don't care about the issue that has dominated the news and politics for the last 3 years?

I didn't say they don't care at all, just that they care less than the people on here.

The public literally don't care about Brexit as much as people on here do.

They (thankfully) don't know who James O'Brien is, they aren't on twitter with millions hash tags and they don't(Again thankfully)take seriously the words of former spin doctors.

We've had one election after Brexit where it was a non issue, a eu election where turnout was under 40%, a ton of positive view for no deal comes from people just wanting the process to end, so we can talk about other stuff(Yes yes I know brexit doesn't end if the uk leaves at the end of October)and even in the result last night you've said of course the lib dems weren't focusing on Brexit in their campaigning.

Again I'm not saying brexit will be a non issue of course it won't but the people who are saying the next election(Proving we even have one)will be all about Brexit are also the same people who haven't talked about anything else since referendum result.

Also just because something has dominated the news doesn't mean the public are just as interested /invested in it.

 

[Cheesy]

I didn't say they don't care at all, just that they care less than the people on here.

So if it's not Brexit which has seen Labour sliding in the polls with supporters going directly to the Lib Dems, i.e. a party centred on Remain credentials, what is it instead then? The public seemingly care enough for it to dent Labour's election chances significantly and that's surely the key point surrounding all of this.

 

[Sweet Square]

So if it's not Brexit which has seen Labour sliding in the polls with supporters going directly to the Lib Dems, i.e. a party centred on Remain credentials, what is it instead then? The public seemingly care enough for it to dent Labour's election chances significantly and that's surely the key point surrounding all of this.

We don't know that until the next election. Labour were top of the polls not to long ago. Current polling means jack shit at the moment, other than annoying certain people on twitter/forums (Which in fairness is does pass the day away and more productive than refreshing the transfers thread).

Its one thing for a person to say in mid January that they'll vote lib dem because Labour are shit at stopping brexit, its other thing for them to do it after a general election campagin.

 

[Cheesy]

We don't know that until the next election. Labour were top of the polls not to long ago. Current polling means jack shit at the moment, other than annoying certain people on twitter/forums (Which in fairness is does pass the day away and more productive than refreshing the transfers thread).

But the problem with this approach is that polling only means jack-shit when Labour are doing poorly - when the Lib Dems weren't polling well it was commonplace for their dire figures to be cited here as evidence that they as a party and the centre-ground as a whole were unpopular. Similarly whenever Labour do well in a poll Corbyn supporters will regularly trump them as evidence of his viability in any prospective election. Not really sure it can go both ways.

Polling is incredibly volatile right now, and I suspect that come any election old habits would die hard to an extent and Labour would out-perform the Lib Dems, but even if the LD's hold at 15% or so then that's got the potential to have a fairly grim impact on Labour's chances. The only real chance the party seems to have of getting near government right now is hoping the Brexit Party pick up again and Boris' honeymoon with No Dealers wears off. Which strikes me as somewhat unlikely considering he's still unpopular himself anyway.

Ultimately in such circumstances it's fairly natural for people to point out that the Labour leader who hasn't mounted poll leads for the last four years might be the problem when that tends to be a fairly basic requirement for forming governments, especially when said leader is historically unpopular for someone in opposition. And again - if Labour were completely willing to ignore polls then they'd maybe have a stake to claim here, but that's not the case. Polls are regularly cited and brought up when Corbyn is performing well, and then seen as something volatile to be ignored when he isn't.