Jeremy Corbyn - Not Not Labour Party(?), not a Communist (BBC)

[Sweet Square]

But the problem with this approach is that polling only means jack-shit when Labour are doing poorly - when the Lib Dems weren't polling well it was commonplace for their dire figures to be cited here as evidence that they as a party and the centre-ground as a whole were unpopular. Similarly whenever Labour do well in a poll Corbyn supporters will regularly trump them as evidence of his viability in any prospective election. Not really sure it can go both ways.

Polling is incredibly volatile right now, and I suspect that come any election old habits would die hard to an extent and Labour would out-perform the Lib Dems, but even if the LD's hold at 15% or so then that's got the potential to have a fairly grim impact on Labour's chances. The only real chance the party seems to have of getting near government right now is hoping the Brexit Party pick up again and Boris' honeymoon with No Dealers wears off. Which strikes me as somewhat unlikely considering he's still unpopular himself anyway.

Er.... my post

Current polling means jack shit at the moment, other than annoying certain people on twitter/forums (Which in fairness is does pass the day away and more productive than refreshing the transfers thread).

Everyone does it, isn't not just labour people. Go on(But really don't)twitter or the guardian opinion page(Again really don't).

Also polling isn't used as why the centre ground is unpopular(The current american president, brexit and well the rising far right over the world).

Ultimately in such circumstances it's fairly natural for people to point out that the Labour leader who hasn't mounted poll leads for the last four years might be the problem when that tends to be a fairly basic requirement for forming governments, especially when said leader is historically unpopular for someone in opposition. And again - if Labour were completely willing to ignore polls then they'd maybe have a stake to claim here, but that's not the case. Polls are regularly cited and brought up when Corbyn is performing well, and then seen as something volatile to be ignored when he isn't.

What does this have to do with my argument that the next election will not be all about brexit ?

Polls are regularly cited and brought up when Corbyn is performing well, and then seen as something volatile to be ignored when he isn't.

Maybe you've got a lot of people on ignore on here but this isn't the case at all.

 

[Fluctuation0161]

Good to see the magic money tree myth being dispelled. All of the Tories own making.

https://mobile.twitter.com/hmtreasury/status/1156678748915294208

 

[berbatrick]

i retract every word because uk polling is a total shitshow and the industry should disband

 

[UweBein]

Tories would want Corbyn to lead Labour the next 100 years or so. It would be their biggest risk if Corbyn resigns.

 

[Ibi Dreams]

Tories would want Corbyn to lead Labour the next 100 years or so. It would be their biggest risk if Corbyn resigns.

Not really, because eventually he'd win and he is just about the last person they want as prime minister. They are scared of him, and they should be

 

[sun_tzu]

Not really, because eventually he'd win and he is just about the last person they want as prime minister. They are scared of him, and they should be

Never gonna happen... Even in a coalition probably the precondition of any of the other partners is Corbyn can't be pm

Worst leader of a UK political movement in my time and I'm including raving lord sutch and nick Griffin in my assessment

 

[Drifter]

Ohhh Jeremy Corbyn.

 

[Red Dreams]

I love all these soothsayers.

"never gonna happen"

Its either Labour or 'please slit my throat' Tories.

 

[sun_tzu]

I love all these soothsayers.

"never gonna happen"

Its either Labour or 'please slit my throat' Tories.

And people are more likley to vote for their throats slit than the useless turd leading labour... That's how bad he is!

 

[Red Dreams]

And people are more likley to vote for their throats slit than the useless turd leading labour... That's how bad he is!

gonna be fun..

 

[sun_tzu]

gonna be fun..

I'm sure the Jews / Blair will get the blame from the corbynistas if this is anything to go by
https://m.huffingtonpost.co.uk/amp/entry/the-canary-anti-semitism_uk_5d445ceee4b0acb57fcbcab4/

.
Pro-Corbyn Website The Canary Blames 'Political Zionists' After It's Forced To Downsize

 

[BobbyManc]

State of our media at present. Sky News find a way to shoehorn anti-Semitism in the Labour Party into a discussion of the shootings in America recently.

 

[Cheesy]

A tad desperate from Guido.

 

[MadMike]

Have you not listened to any of Swinson's interviews since she was elected leader? Her party policy is not to magically stop Brexit as you seem to think, it is to have a second referendum with the May/Johnson deal as an option. She also said that if the second referendum was to return a majority for Leave again then she would honour that and implement it. Basically, just as Labour are saying they would do only Labour would attempt to negotiate their own version of a deal first.

However the Lib Dems are not on a manifesto to deliver Brexit unlike Tories and Labour, but to block it. So should they gain power in General Election, that's a democratic mandate for Remain. And there wouldn't need be a 2nd referendum because the point of the referendum is a final say on a Brexit deal. And with Lib Dems in power, there wouldn't be a Brexit deal.

This is simply not true and is not congruous with the party's own statements and policies. Their solution to stopping Brexit is to have a second referendum. That is the platform on which they are campaigning. You're suggesting that that policy would suddenly transform into simply revoking Article 50 and ending the whole process if they were to become the largest party. It's wishful thinking on your part. Face it, they have no real solution to stopping Brexit and it's the same as Labour's position only they are less equivocal about the outcome they wish for and would not bother to negotiate their own deal.

Do you now you see how ridiculous the position you were holding was?

 

[sullydnl]

So if you're a remainer for whom Brexit is the #1 issue dictating your voting preference in a general election, why would you now opt for Labour over the LibDems?

That's a genuine question btw. I'm curious as to how Labour will attract remain votes away from a party who have now said they support the revocation of Article 50.

 

[MadMike]

So if you're a remainer for whom Brexit is the #1 issue dictating your voting preference in a general election, why would you now opt for Labour over the LibDems?

That's a genuine question btw. I'm curious as to how Labour will attract remain votes away from a party who have now said they support the revocation of Article 50.

There’s no difference to before. This was essentially already Lib Dem policy, it just hadn’t been officially in writing anywhere. The Lib Dems have positioned themselves as the Remain party from the start. Everyone already knew this. The Lib Dem manifesto was called “Cancel Brexit” yet somehow bobbymanc argued that Lib Dems would put May’s deal to a People’s Vote if they won power outright. Because they backed a People’s Vote while in opposition. Absurd.

Anyhow, to answer your question... For those that are die-hard remainers above all else, Corbyn’s stance of Brexit unicorns with a referendum at the end, was already a losing one. I don’t think there was a prospect of him winning those over. And while personally I feel that a soft Brexit, as opposed to revocation, might be the best option in terms of national reconciliation...I just don’t trust him on this. His stance is unrealistic (Customs union only, but with veto powers), he is a eurosceptic, he plans to renegotiate from the start which is years of uncertainty.

If his stance had been a genuine soft Brexit, like giving a referendum immediately of WAB vs Remain and if the WAB gets through then signing it and starting negotiations for a Norway-style deal with Single Market access... then I could have supported him. But currently you don’t really know what you’d get from him on Brexit if he was PM.

 

[rotherham_red]

So if you're a remainer for whom Brexit is the #1 issue dictating your voting preference in a general election, why would you now opt for Labour over the LibDems?

That's a genuine question btw. I'm curious as to how Labour will attract remain votes away from a party who have now said they support the revocation of Article 50.

I'm a remainer, but if the option is to remain but go down the route of the Yellow Tories with Jo Swinson, whose voting record is no different to your average Tory frontbencher, then I'll be honest, I'd rather vote for Labour, who while admittedly have a very unclear policy on Brexit, do actually care enough to put in place policies which genuinely help the vulnerable in our society.

Voting for the Lib Dems is essentially a vote for the status quo, and the status quo since 2010 has done nothing for me and my loved ones.

 

[MadMike]

I'm a remainer, but if the option is to remain but go down the route of the Yellow Tories with Jo Swinson, whose voting record is no different to your average Tory frontbencher, then I'll be honest, I'd rather vote for Labour, who while admittedly have a very unclear policy on Brexit, do actually care enough to put in place policies which genuinely help the vulnerable in our society.

Voting for the Lib Dems is essentially a vote for the status quo, and the status quo since 2010 has done nothing for me and my loved ones.

I have severe doubts that Corbyn will be able to push through any social reforms whatsoever while Brexit is in the way. If he plans to renegotiate, he’ll be devoting an enormous amount of time, energy and money on this. Basically what’s been happening for 3 years now. How much did May achieve since her election? Sweet fa. So you’re very likely voting for the status who anyway.

And if he does push through with a damaging type of Brexit, then I doubt many of the reforms he wants will be fiscally possible in a recession. Not to mention they’d be unlikely to offset, even for the poorer people, the loses inflicted due to Brexit. And then he will then lose the next elections for the Tories to come in and repeal most of his legislation, while he delivered Brexit for them and became the fall guy.

 

[Red Dreams]

I have severe doubts that Corbyn will be able to push through any social reforms whatsoever while Brexit is in the way. If he plans to renegotiate, he’ll be devoting an enormous amount of time, energy and money on this. Basically what’s been happening for 3 years now. How much did May achieve since her election? Sweet fa. So you’re very likely voting for the status who anyway.

And if he does push through with a damaging type of Brexit, then I doubt many of the reforms he wants will be fiscally possible in a recession. Not to mention they’d be unlikely to offset, even for the poorer people, the loses inflicted due to Brexit. And then he will then lose the next elections for the Tories to come in and repeal most of his legislation, while he delivered Brexit for them and became the fall guy.

What do you think the Lib/Dems will offer the poor.

 

[MadMike]

What do you think the Lib/Dems will offer the poor.

In power? Under Swinson? Most probably feck all. The core of the party is largely neoliberals at the moment, so don’t hold your breath. However she does offer revocation which would actually be the best of the options currently on the table.

I also reckon (personal opinion this) that Lib Dems and SNP being kingmakers in a hung parliament they would most certainly back Corbyn rather than BoJo, if Corbyn backs down on Brexit. While their economic policies are definitely more in line with the Tories, they simply can’t form a partnership with that has become the Brexit party. Half their MPs are ex-Labour and the other half are BoJo’s outcasts. And in the core issue of the day Lib Dems and Tories have a the diametrically opposite stance.

So I think voting Lib Dems might mean a Labour government that is forced to take a pro-EU stance in exchange for being allowed to push some of its reforms through (probably the more moderate ones). And that would be the best of both worlds for you. Or maybe I’m dreaming of unicorns now...

 

[Red Dreams]

In power? Under Swinson? Most probably feck all. The core of the party is largely neoliberals at the moment, so don’t hold your breath. However she does offer revocation which would actually be the best of the options currently on the table.

I also reckon (personal opinion this) that Lib Dems and SNP being kingmakers in a hung parliament they would most certainly back Corbyn rather than BoJo, if Corbyn backs down on Brexit. While their economic policies are definitely more in line with the Tories, they simply can’t form a partnership with that has become the Brexit party. Half their MPs are ex-Labour and the other half are BoJo’s outcasts. And in the core issue of the day Lib Dems and Tories have a the diametrically opposite stance.

So I think voting Lib Dems might mean a Labour government that is forced to take a pro-EU stance in exchange for being allowed to push some of its reforms through (probably the more moderate ones). And that would be the best of both worlds for you. Or maybe I’m dreaming of unicorns now...

If the Lib Dems actually care about the welfare of people they need to sit down with Labour about how to not just defeat the Torries but afterwards.

Unfortunately I don't see any light at the end of the tunnel.

What a complete mess.

 

[Fluctuation0161]

Do you know you see how ridiculous the position you were holding was?

The Lib Dems have changed their policy. Struggling to see your point?

 

[esmufc07]

It's a more clear position than Labours, which as it still stands is a bit of a mess. Negotiate a deal with the EU which they would then put to a referendum and campaign against. Never mind the amount of time that would be needed to renegotiate with the EU and hold a second referendum (and then presumably Article 50 would have to be revoked and then invoked again anyway).

There is no deal to be had that leaves us better off. Brexiteers now don't want a deal as they've been tricked into thinking No Deal is the only option.

Labour should come out in favour of revocation aswell. Make the upcoming election No Deal v Remain, and then we can finally put this sorry chapter to bed, whatever the outcome.

 

[Fluctuation0161]

It's a more clear position than Labours, which as it still stands is a bit of a mess. Negotiate a deal with the EU which they would then put to a referendum and campaign against. Never mind the amount of time that would be needed to renegotiate with the EU and hold a second referendum (and then presumably Article 50 would have to be revoked and then invoked again anyway).

There is no deal to be had that leaves us better off. Brexiteers now don't want a deal as they've been tricked into thinking No Deal is the only option.

Labour should come out in favour of revocation aswell. Make the upcoming election No Deal v Remain, and then we can finally put this sorry chapter to bed, whatever the outcome.

I partially agree with your last point. Minus the revocation, this could cause a riot. But I believe a second referendum, with more detailed options, would be more effective in resolving this than a GE.

Labour's position seems the best option to me.

 

[The Boy]

Labour should come out in favour of revocation aswell. Make the upcoming election No Deal v Remain, and then we can finally put this sorry chapter to bed, whatever the outcome.

The difficulty is for Labour that in it's top 45 target seats (they need to gain 64 to get a majority) only 10 voted remain and 35 voted leave. All the seats they need are Tory held at the moment, some by the thinnest of margins (Southampton Itchen 35 con majority!)

If Corbyn comes out pro remain, you could likely say good bye to the chances of a Labour govt, they could actually end up losing seats for example Dudley North has a Lab majority of just 22, but the constituency was 70.1% leave at the referendum, Labour held onto it at the last election as they campaigned on a leave manifesto. If they come out as remain they lose that.

They may win some SNP seats in Scotland, but to win or to even come close enough to form a coalition with the SNP or Lib Dems they need to win Tory seats in England and Wales and that's not likely on a remain platform.

This is why they have been so opaque about what their Brexit policy is

 

[sun_tzu]

The difficulty is for Labour that in it's top 45 target seats (they need to gain 64 to get a majority) only 10 voted remain and 35 voted leave. All the seats they need are Tory held at the moment, some by the thinnest of margins (Southampton Itchen 35 con majority!)

If Corbyn comes out pro remain, you could likely say good bye to the chances of a Labour govt, they could actually end up losing seats for example Dudley North has a Lab majority of just 22, but the constituency was 70.1% leave at the referendum, Labour held onto it at the last election as they campaigned on a leave manifesto. If they come out as remain they lose that.

They may win some SNP seats in Scotland, but to win or to even come close enough to form a coalition with the SNP or Lib Dems they need to win Tory seats in England and Wales and that's not likely on a remain platform.

This is why they have been so opaque about what their Brexit policy is

Labour win a majority... Simply can't see that
Libs SNP greens could well get 100 seats between them
Brexit party is clearly an unknown but I suspect they could be the main threat to labour in the labour leave seats ... Possibly 50mps
Another 20 or so independents and smaller parties
That takes up around 170 seats... Very hard to see anything other than a coalition or minority government
Clearly that's either conservative / brexit / dup
Or labour / libs / SNP etc
The only way labour will be able to get agreement from them I think is a referendm asap between Mays deal and remain with a commitment to labour campaigning to remain
They might as well be honest and make that their official policy now ... And I suspect after conference that or some close varient will end up as the policy.

 

[The Boy]

Labour win a majority... Simply can't see that
Libs SNP greens could well get 100 seats between them
Brexit party is clearly an unknown but I suspect they could be the main threat to labour in the labour leave seats ... Possibly 50mps
Another 20 or so independents and smaller parties
That takes up around 170 seats... Very hard to see anything other than a coalition or minority government
Clearly that's either conservative / brexit / dup
Or labour / libs / SNP etc
The only way labour will be able to get agreement from them I think is a referendm asap between Mays deal and remain with a commitment to labour campaigning to remain
They might as well be honest and make that their official policy now ... And I suspect after conference that or some close varient will end up as the policy.

This is the point I think, but whether it is Brexit party or Tories is almost irrelevant 16 of Labour's most vulnerable seats (a majority of under 2000)
voted leave, the majority of their target seats voted leave. I think Labour will lose seats in this election rather than gain them, especially if they come out as pro remain.

What will be interesting is the Lib Dems, who seem to think they can win up to 70 seats, that would be their best performance ever. They are targeting moderate Tories and in Tory/Lib Dem marginals there is polling that suggests a swing towards the Lib Dems, Winchester for example. But even if they do they are unlikely to command more seats in coalition with Lab and SNP, Change, Green and Plaid Cymru than the Tories and Brexit party together IF the Tories agree to go into coalition with them. But given Johnson's desperation at the moment I wouldn't be surprised to see a cabinet with Farage in it by Christmas...... makes me shudder even writing that

 

[sun_tzu]

This is the point I think, but whether it is Brexit party or Tories is almost irrelevant 16 of Labour's most vulnerable seats (a majority of under 2000)
voted leave, the majority of their target seats voted leave. I think Labour will lose seats in this election rather than gain them, especially if they come out as pro remain.

What will be interesting is the Lib Dems, who seem to think they can win up to 70 seats, that would be their best performance ever. They are targeting moderate Tories and in Tory/Lib Dem marginals there is polling that suggests a swing towards the Lib Dems, Winchester for example. But even if they do they are unlikely to command more seats in coalition with Lab and SNP, Change, Green and Plaid Cymru than the Tories and Brexit party together IF the Tories agree to go into coalition with them. But given Johnson's desperation at the moment I wouldn't be surprised to see a cabinet with Farage in it by Christmas...... makes me shudder even writing that

I think they loose them with their current policy anyway - and their current policy will also bleed a lot of remain support to the libs...

If they fully back remain they will at least only bleed out on one side - plus they are going to be dragged to that position by a coalition anyway

As for the farrage bit - yeah if it ends up with Brexit MP's being required to enact legistlation then I think the conservatives are going to long for the days when they only had the DUP to pursuade as I suspect some of the demands from Farrage will be ridiculous and the trade talks with the EU will be pretty much impossible as he wont pay any of the settlement fee

 

[Smores]

Labour going flat out revoke would be political suicide for them and the remain cause.

There aren't remainers who would vote for a remain party but only if Labour backs revoke. You're not gaining any votes that way but you sure as hell are losing them.

 

[Adisa]

He has come out of the last week very well. I was scared he was going to agree to an election.

 

[The Boy]

I think they loose them with their current policy anyway - and their current policy will also bleed a lot of remain support to the libs...

If they fully back remain they will at least only bleed out on one side - plus they are going to be dragged to that position by a coalition anyway

As for the farrage bit - yeah if it ends up with Brexit MP's being required to enact legistlation then I think the conservatives are going to long for the days when they only had the DUP to pursuade as I suspect some of the demands from Farrage will be ridiculous and the trade talks with the EU will be pretty much impossible as he wont pay any of the settlement fee

If I was Boris, I would hold an election and in out referendum on the same day.
Tories would win the election hands down as remainers scared of Corbyn could vote Tory and remain. You bleed the Lib Dem vote and there are alot of Lib Dem/Tory marginals. Britain gets a Tory government, there's nowt in it for the Brexit party and the UK stays in the EU.
Boris never cared whether we were in or out in the first place, but he does care about keeping the Tories in power and keeping himself in No 10, this would be an easy way to do it.

 

[sun_tzu]

Labour going flat out revoke would be political suicide for them and the remain cause.

There aren't remainers who would vote for a remain party but only if Labour backs revoke. You're not gaining any votes that way but you sure as hell are losing them.

I think the libs could actually finish ahead of them if labour dont change their current brexit policy(though im pretty sure the current policy wont survive conference)

 

[sun_tzu]

If I was Boris, I would hold an election and in out referendum on the same day.
Tories would win the election hands down as remainers scared of Corbyn could vote Tory and remain. You bleed the Lib Dem vote and there are alot of Lib Dem/Tory marginals. Britain gets a Tory government, there's nowt in it for the Brexit party and the UK stays in the EU.
Boris never cared whether we were in or out in the first place, but he does care about keeping the Tories in power and keeping himself in No 10, this would be an easy way to do it.

you cant - there are different laws governing the run in period for referendum and elections - minimum for a referendum to pass the legistlation, have the electoral commision test and agree a question then designate official campaigns for each side then enter the campaign period is 6 months (and thats presuming no legal challanges to the question and i suspect in the current atmosphere there would be so probably longer)

 

[Smores]

I think the libs could actually finish ahead of them if labour dont change their current brexit policy(though im pretty sure the current policy wont survive conference)

I highly doubt it but it doesn't really matter if votes move between labour and lib dem. It's votes from Labour to Brexit and the Tories that are of concern.

Of course both the Lib Dems and Labour are going to look after their own interests, probably with the cost being brexit.

 

[MadMike]

The Lib Dems have changed their policy. Struggling to see your point?

No they didn’t. A change would imply that they held a different position for the case they became government. They didn’t. They never said they would enact a 2nd referendum if they were in power. The people’s vote position is one that says that any deal for Brexit has to be approved by the people first before becoming law in Parliament. They never said they would try to put any deal through if they were in Govt. The two positions are not mutually exclusive.

I’m sure, for all your struggles, you can work that one out.

 

[Fluctuation0161]

No they didn’t. A change would imply that they held a different position for the case they became government. They didn’t. They never said they would enact a 2nd referendum if they were in power. The people’s vote position is one that says that any deal for Brexit has to be approved by the people first before becoming law in Parliament. They never said they would try to put any deal through if they were in Govt. The two positions are not mutually exclusive.

I’m sure, for all your struggles, you can work that one out.

Keep up.

https://www.heraldscotland.com/news/17800055.new-lib-dem-leader-honour-result-future-eu-vote/

Swinson:
“So there isn’t agreement amongst Brexiteers, therefore I don’t think there is agreement in the country for any specific Brexit proposal and that’s why we need to put this issue back to the people in a People’s Vote and I will campaign strongly with the Liberal Democrats to remain in the EU.”

 

[The Boy]

you cant - there are different laws governing the run in period for referendum and elections - minimum for a referendum to pass the legistlation, have the electoral commision test and agree a question then designate official campaigns for each side then enter the campaign period is 6 months (and thats presuming no legal challanges to the question and i suspect in the current atmosphere there would be so probably longer)

You're right, but you could reduce it by a month or so. For example the electoral commission doesn't necessarily need 12 weeks to test the question, you could also change the campaigning period at the moment it is a minimum of 10 weeks (that includes campaigns to the electoral commission for official designation), but laws can be amended when the legislation for a referendum is put to parliament, parliament agrees the date, timings etc with each referendum.

But it doesn't matter Boris just says we propose to do this, if the EU only give an extension up until the end of Jan 2020 (which is the best guess at the moment) parliament could easily vote to make sure we had a referendum before then Then we have GE and Ref in December just before Xmas.

To be fair we've only had 3 in my life time 1975 on EEC membership, 2011 on PR and of course 2016 and each time the rules have been different. You never know it could happen, predicting anything is impossible at the moment, events change everything so quickly!

 

[MadMike]

Keep up.

https://www.heraldscotland.com/news/17800055.new-lib-dem-leader-honour-result-future-eu-vote/

Swinson:
“So there isn’t agreement amongst Brexiteers, therefore I don’t think there is agreement in the country for any specific Brexit proposal and that’s why we need to put this issue back to the people in a People’s Vote and I will campaign strongly with the Liberal Democrats to remain in the EU.”

Which part of that says what they’d do in power and contradicts the post you quoted? Are you having severe comprehension issues?

 

[MadMike]

I highly doubt it but it doesn't really matter if votes move between labour and lib dem. It's votes from Labour to Brexit and the Tories that are of concern.

But of course it matters in constituencies where votes lost to Lib Dems means ending up with a Tory seat. It’s FPTP system.

 

[The Boy]

But of course it matters in constituencies where votes lost to Lib Dems means ending up with Tory seat. It’s FPTP system.

He is right though, the marginals in this election are between Lib Dem/Con and Lab/Con, in 2015 when the Lib Dems were wiped out they lost 27 seats to the Tories and only 9 to Labour. The Lib Dems think they could win all of those back in this election and more. The amount of seats that are Lib Dem/Lab marginals are not not so many and therefore not so important.

The other key marginal seats are the ones that are Lab/Con. The vast majority of those are leave voting constituencies so the Lib Dems won't be part of the race. So again a number of votes switching from Lab to Lib Dem are not so important.

It's because we're an FPTP system that Lab voters switching to Lib Dem are less important because of the constituencies they are doing it in. If we had PR it would make a bigger difference.

Do you know you see how ridiculous the position you were holding was?

On a separate matter - this post made me laugh out loud!