Brexited | the worst threads live the longest

[MikeUpNorth]

I can't compare because I haven't looked at the EU-Turkish custom agreement. In this agreement the UK have the right to unilaterally take any measure that protects its market. You already said that it would defy logic and I should have been totally clear, you can and will have to put borders if you want to protect yourself. And that's why the EUCU trade in block, that's why Norway and Switzerland have borders and border checks.

You have to make a choice, you either trade in block and have the same legal framework or you will need a border, otherwise we are vulnerable to exploitation.

What you seem to be saying then, is that the backstop does not actually fulfil its intention of preventing the need for a hard border (at least in a certain set of conceivable circumstances regarding trade)?

I believe that the UK would be in violation of the provisions of the WA if it ended up in the backstop and subsequently implemented border checks. It surely would have a legal obligation to abide by the terms of the customs union? That's the whole point.

 

[JPRouve]

What you seem to be saying then, is that the backstop does not actually fulfil its intention of preventing the need for a hard border?

It does fulfills it, if the UK-EU co-sign every new EU or UK FTA and ratify every laws that impacts the single market and the custom union but you probably realize what that actually means. Based on the UK red lines, there is no way out, that's the hard truth. If the UK changes its red lines, one way or the other, more options become available but NI will always have to be with ROI unless they both tell us otherwise.

 

[Paul the Wolf]

Nigel Farage, the former Ukip leader, is speaking now on behalf of the Europe of Freedom and Direct Democracy group.
He says the chances of a no-deal Brexit have gone up. But that is not because of the vote in the Commons. It is because of what has happened in Brussels.
He says the EU made Theresa May sign up to the backstop. She had to get on a plane at 4 in the morning to go to Brussels to agree to it [in December 2017]. He says she signed up to terms that no country had signed up to except when defeated in war.
He says people in the UK never used to know anyone in the EU. But now Brexit has turned “you”, he says, into household names. And people have seen how the EU behaves.
He says people in the UK are getting so fed up that they would prefer to see a no-deal Brexit.
But that is a problem for the EU, he says. What will happen to the 100m bottle of prosecco bought by the British? And what will happen to the 750,000 German cars.

Think it's getting all too much for Farage.

 

[Smores]

You can tell they just want Farage to feck off, brexit will be worth it for them just to get rid of the oaf, unfortunately we're stuck with him here

 

[Sassy Colin]

Nigel Farage, the former Ukip leader, is speaking now on behalf of the Europe of Freedom and Direct Democracy group.
He says the chances of a no-deal Brexit have gone up. But that is not because of the vote in the Commons. It is because of what has happened in Brussels.
He says the EU made Theresa May sign up to the backstop. She had to get on a plane at 4 in the morning to go to Brussels to agree to it [in December 2017]. He says she signed up to terms that no country had signed up to except when defeated in war.
He says people in the UK never used to know anyone in the EU. But now Brexit has turned “you”, he says, into household names. And people have seen how the EU behaves.
He says people in the UK are getting so fed up that they would prefer to see a no-deal Brexit.
But that is a problem for the EU, he says. What will happen to the 100m bottle of prosecco bought by the British? And what will happen to the 750,000 German cars.

Think it's getting all too much for Farage.

First of all, the British will continue to buy German cars, an extra £30 or £40 a month won't phase 95% of purchasers. In any case, selling those cars to 50 or more other markets won't be a problem for them, it will only be a minor blip. People will want BMWs Mercs VWs etc just as much as they always have.

And once we are out of Europe with no deal & the country going to the dogs, we'll be drinking more than ever.

 

[Kentonio]

You can tell they just want Farage to feck off, brexit will be worth it for them just to get rid of the oaf, unfortunately we're stuck with him here

Until Mueller indicts him you mean?

 

[Paul the Wolf]

First of all, the British will continue to buy German cars, an extra £30 or £40 a month won't phase 95% of purchasers. In any case, selling those cars to 50 or more other markets won't be a problem for them, it will only be a minor blip. People will want BMWs Mercs VWs etc just as much as they always have.

And once we are out of Europe with no deal & the country going to the dogs, we'll be drinking more than ever.

I've never owned a German made car and I've never drunk a glass of Prosecco, how did they manage.

Farage is still appealing to the numpties who believed him the first time around and probably still do.

 

[GloryHunter07]

First of all, the British will continue to buy German cars, an extra £30 or £40 a month won't phase 95% of purchasers. In any case, selling those cars to 50 or more other markets won't be a problem for them, it will only be a minor blip. People will want BMWs Mercs VWs etc just as much as they always have.

And once we are out of Europe with no deal & the country going to the dogs, we'll be drinking more than ever.

British cars for British people! Like the Mini... no...or ... um.... ah

 

[MoskvaRed]

Farage is talking out of his backside as usual but I think a sizeable portion of the population will buy his line that the UK is being bullied by Brussels. i just wish an interviewer would ask Nige or one of the other fantasists like Fox how they expect to get great deals from bigger countries in the rest of the world who are a lot less well disposed to the UK than the EU 27.

 

[MikeUpNorth]

It does fulfills it, if the UK-EU co-sign every new EU or UK FTA and ratify every laws that impacts the single market and the custom union but you probably realize what that actually means. Based on the UK red lines, there is no way out, that's the hard truth. If the UK changes its red lines, one way or the other, more options become available but NI will always have to be with ROI unless they both tell us otherwise.

What is particularly intolerable?

I think you've finally answered your own question.

I also want to point out that the UK might not get the chance to automatically participate in EU FTAs, even if it wanted to. Things just get exponentially more complicated when you add a third party into this whole mess.

 

[JPRouve]

I think you've finally answered your own question.

I didn't. The UK's own red lines can't be intolerable to the UK.

 

[DavidDeSchmikes]

 

[MikeUpNorth]

I didn't. The UK's own red lines can't be intolerable to the UK.

You greatly underestimate our stupidity.

 

[Cheesy]

Somewhat positive to hear, albeit not sure what overall effect it'll have considering both parties have largely employed fantastical approaches to the whole process so far.

 

[DavidDeSchmikes]

Somewhat positive to hear, albeit not sure what overall effect it'll have considering both parties have largely employed fantastical approaches to the whole process so far.

May to give Corbyn his GE in exchange for him to back her deal?

 

[Smores]

Don't know how to read that beyond perhaps a bit of self-promotion.

May using Corbyn to start leaking talks of a custom union perhaps.

 

[MikeUpNorth]

Now that would be interesting, if May allowed a soft Brexit (up front membership of the customs union) through with Labour votes.

I think that would probably split the Tory party, with the ERG going off on their own. For that reason, I just can't see it.

 

[Adisa]

Quite true.
But she didn't really have a choice because the deal that she had signed up to will not be accepted by Parliament and she is well aware of that.

The reality is that the vote last night was to:
Go back to the EU to try to reopen the WA.
Get the backstop changed in favour of a different solution to the Irish border. The solution to this does not exist and if it did, would have been identified during the last 2 years of discussion.

So. Have we made any progress?

The ERG and the DUP will not vote for any kind of backstop. If tomorrow the EU agreed to a time limit, next tomorrow the ERG/DUP would ask for it to be taken out entirely.
Their goal is to kill any deal.

 

[Cheesy]

Farage is talking out of his backside as usual but I think a sizeable portion of the population will buy his line that the UK is being bullied by Brussels. i just wish an interviewer would ask Nige or one of the other fantasists like Fox how they expect to get great deals from bigger countries in the rest of the world who are a lot less well disposed to the UK than the EU 27.

I find it remarkable that the people who say Brussels are bullying us seem somehow surprised at the idea of Brussels bullying us, even though they'd been insisting that Brussels was bullying us for years!

 

[sun_tzu]

shes trying to see if when staring dow the barrel of no deal Labour will blink and back her deal - My gut feel is they will in the end

 

[Cheesy]

May to give Corbyn his GE in exchange for him to back her deal?

Don't see that happening - the government won't want to look unstable, and a general election right after Brexit's complete is hardly a hallmark of stability. Even if their talks have been positive I struggle to see where they'll willingly concede ground to each other.

 

[Adisa]

May to give Corbyn his GE in exchange for him to back her deal?

Chances are zero.

 

[Cheesy]

shes trying to see if when staring dow the barrel of no deal Labour will blink and back her deal - My gut feel is they will in the end

Would be intriguing to see how it plays out. For as much as Corbyn wants to get into power I expect he's aware that none of the current crop will come out well in the case of a no deal Brexit. Although it's difficult to see him agreeing to May's plans without concessions of his own that he's unlikely to get.

 

[golden_blunder]

Nigel Farage, the former Ukip leader, is speaking now on behalf of the Europe of Freedom and Direct Democracy group.
He says the chances of a no-deal Brexit have gone up. But that is not because of the vote in the Commons. It is because of what has happened in Brussels.
He says the EU made Theresa May sign up to the backstop. She had to get on a plane at 4 in the morning to go to Brussels to agree to it [in December 2017]. He says she signed up to terms that no country had signed up to except when defeated in war.
He says people in the UK never used to know anyone in the EU. But now Brexit has turned “you”, he says, into household names. And people have seen how the EU behaves.
He says people in the UK are getting so fed up that they would prefer to see a no-deal Brexit.
But that is a problem for the EU, he says. What will happen to the 100m bottle of prosecco bought by the British? And what will happen to the 750,000 German cars.

Think it's getting all too much for Farage.

I daresay they will drink every bottle and still drive their German made cars. Farage is turning into a spitting image character. Oh I wish that they’d bring it back, so much material

 

[DavidDeSchmikes]

Corbyn: I set out the Labour case for a comprehensive customs union with the EU in order to protect jobs in this country and trade.

"And, of course very importantly, to protect the conditions that we have, the regulations that we have on environment, consumers and workers' rights.

"We set out our case for this and I wanted to explain to the prime minister, which I did, that I wanted no-deal taken off the table which is why I didn't meet her until today.

"I was very pleased that the House voted yesterday to take no-deal off the table.

"I asked for the prime minister's assurance that we were not back into the territory of threatening no-deal as a way of getting support for her failed deal, which has obviously got very limited support in parliament."

Source: Sky News

 

[Paul the Wolf]

Now that would be interesting, if May allowed a soft Brexit (up front membership of the customs union) through with Labour votes.

I think that would probably split the Tory party, with the ERG going off on their own. For that reason, I just can't see it.

Problem is Corbyn doesn't want membership of the customs union , he wants to be member of a customs union where they don't abide by EU rules

They'll both say they agree and then totally deny it a little later.

 

[Sassy Colin]

British cars for British people! Like the Mini... no...or ... um.... ah

We can all drive Caterhams and Lotuses

 

[Mb194dc]

shes trying to see if when staring dow the barrel of no deal Labour will blink and back her deal - My gut feel is they will in the end

Why would they do that? Corbyn wants an election and the best way for him to get it is to vote down the deal then put forward another confidence motion, several times if needed.

Even better he can out May for trying to sellout half the conservative party ensuring a rout in the election.

Another trap May is falling for?

 

[MoskvaRed]

I find it remarkable that the people who say Brussels are bullying us seem somehow surprised at the idea of Brussels bullying us, even though they'd been insisting that Brussels was bullying us for years!

Stop applying logic, we are now far down the rabbit hole. Last night we saw May hailed as a victor for publicly rejecting her own deal and voting for proposals that have been explicitly rejected by the other side on numerous occasions. I am off to celebrate awarding myself a pay rise and United being top of the league table that disregards the 5 teams above them.

 

[Ubik]

No deal isn't off the table you massive goon.

 

[Paul the Wolf]

I daresay they will drink every bottle and still drive their German made cars. Farage is turning into a spitting image character. Oh I wish that they’d bring it back, so much material

Just think it it wasn't for the EU no-one would have ever heard of Nigel Farage... Or was that what he said.

 

[Adisa]

Two party leaders start talking a month before we leave after spending the last 18 months riding unicorns.

 

[Paul the Wolf]

Two party leaders start talking a month before we leave after spending the last 18 months riding unicorns.

They're both still riding unicorns.

 

[bleedred]

Is May's deal completely not an option now?. I mean the parliament wants her to go back and renegotiate with EU. If she does that and nothing progresses, can she ask the parliament for a vote again on her deal? If so, maybe some may change their minds considering the alternative is a no -deal?

 

[Paul the Wolf]

Is May's deal completely not an option now?. I mean the parliament wants her to go back and renegotiate with EU. If she does that and nothing progresses, can she ask the parliament for a vote again on her deal? If so, maybe some may change their minds considering the alternative is a no -deal?

If cancelling Brexit is not option and no deal is not an option, the only option left is May's deal or a much softer Brexit.

In reality there is not an option that is acceptable.

 

[Mb194dc]

Is May's deal completely not an option now?. I mean the parliament wants her to go back and renegotiate with EU. If she does that and nothing progresses, can she ask the parliament for a vote again on her deal? If so, maybe some may change their minds considering the alternative is a no -deal?

IMO almost no chance the unchanged withdrawal agreement ever passes because of the backstop:



Labour will likely never support the agreement with the backstop, same goes for all other opposition parties, the DUP and the 118 Conservatives who already voted against it. I would guess even more Tories are against it but voted with the government out of loyalty.

Other options are no deal or no Brexit. Remains to be seen how the politics plays out with them.

 

[bleedred]

If cancelling Brexit is not option and no deal is not an option, the only option left is May's deal or a much softer Brexit.

In reality there is not an option that is acceptable.

IMO almost no chance the unchanged withdrawal agreement ever passes because of the backstop:



Labour will likely never support the agreement with the backstop, same goes for all other opposition parties, the DUP and the 118 Conservatives who already voted against it. I would guess even more Tories are against it but voted with the government out of loyalty.

Other options are no deal or no Brexit. Remains to be seen how the politics plays out with them.

I understand that May's deal would require a major shift in opinion to pass through. But I am asking, "technically", can she ask for another vote in a couple months time on her deal. Or is it the case, when once a motion is defeated in parliament, its never voted on again?

 

[MikeUpNorth]

I understand that May's deal would require a major shift in opinion to pass through. But I am asking, "technically", can she ask for another vote in a couple months time on her deal. Or is it the case, when once a motion is defeated in parliament, its never voted on again?

The government can bring a vote to the floor as many times as they like. There's no double jeopardy provision.

 

[Mb194dc]

I understand that May's deal would require a major shift in opinion to pass through. But I am asking, "technically", can she ask for another vote in a couple months time on her deal. Or is it the case, when once a motion is defeated in parliament, its never voted on again?

Yes she can bring it back to be voted on multiple times, if she's really a glutton for punishment!

 

[buchansleftleg]

The ERG and the DUP will never be satisfied with whatever the EU offer as a compromise to the backstop ( if they offer anything at all).

The ERG can't deliver the brexit they promised so want No Deal to happen so they can keep hold of the £39Bn divorce and use it for a quick bribe to the electorate of a tax cut.

They are all disaster capitalists and want a nice return to victorian work ethics. They actually believe we can prosper as some sort of Pirate nation... reneging on treaties without being treated as a pariah state.

May is a fool for trusting them and the bigots of the DUP rather than seek a consensus.