Brexited | the worst threads live the longest
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Unicorn smuggling rings taking them across the North Sea could cripple the UK economy.
Yes, it was a win for the UK in the negotiations. I was just correcting Balaks misunderstanding.
What NI might have benefit from is the proposal the DUP rejected most fervently: NI stays in the customs union and there's an effective border down the Irish sea. That would leave it in the goldilocks position of being the only part of the UK in the customs union. However that ship sank before it even left port.
Sorry you are quite right. Well I'm all for renaming in the customs Union as it's the only way to avoid a hard border.
I wonder how many times people will have to say that it's not open for re-negotiation before some of these MPs get it through their thick skulls..
That backstop you're on about was one that was only ever discussed months ago and rejected instantly by the UK mate.
Clearly I'm about 6 months behind. Is Harry Kane still fit?
I wish Brexit was six months behind.
So what we have is May going back to the EU . Being told no and then winding down for no deal in March.
The world is watching.
Interesting. Guess we'll be stuck in Brexit purgatory indefinitely then?
I for one am shocked.
Correct, that's May's plan now, the ERG/Tory Brexiteers have won that particular battle.
The only thing that can stop it is, 1. a general election, 2. a referendum, or 3. unilaterally revoking A50. The question is, will a majority of MPs fall behind one of those three options when staring down the barrel of no deal.
If May lost a vote of confidence would anyone still have authority to revoke a50? Could the parliament continue sitting long enough to do that or how does that work?
Cant see a General Election happening by other means
Cant see a General Election happening by other means
That is the Irish position, but I don’t fully understand it. The UK leaving without a deal now would be exactly the same as the UK leaving without a deal in a few years time, if they time limited the backstop. Why chose certain pain now over potential pain later? My only conclusion is that they don’t really believe the UK will go through with a ‘no deal’ scenario. They underestimate our stupidity.
The real reason, in my opinion, that the EU will never agree to time limit the backstop is because it would fundamentally change the nature of negotiations on the future trade deal. With the indefinite backstop, the EU basically has no pressure to conclude a trade deal and can play hardball on the fine road points of a trade deal. If the backstop had an expiry date then that advantage is neutralised as both parties have a clock ticking and need to compromise.
Remember, this is just a withdrawal agreement at this stage. All the real hard negotiations around trade still have to be done in the coming years, whatever happens.
It’s what I don’t undertand about the ‘just get on with it crowd’. Even if we leave without a deal in March, the next 3-5 years would still be entirely consumed by trade negotiations with the EU. Whatever happens in the next month, it’s just the very beginning...
I think may is a little more stubborn than that
I think she sees 300+ MP's voting for the spellman amendment against no deal and in her mind is if she can string the erg along for long enough and it does literally come down to (her) deal or no deal she will bet enough MPs begrudgingly backing it... Then she can run off into the wheatfields thinking she's played a blinder and leave it to mogg / Johnson to be the fire to her fyring pan
To be fair, if she gets some version of her deal through the commons eventually, by hook or by crook, then she has played a blinder, politically speaking.
To be honest if there is any deal then unless the UK negotiating position changes its basically this deal...
Part of the problem is it's seen as Mays deal (as instantly the opposition parties oppose it) and that's largely down to the way she treated parliament in the negotiations.
But ultimately it's this deal or no deal and on that basis parliament seems to suggest they don't want no deal and I think the no deal is better than a bad deal days are sounding like a distant and hollow threat
I could see the erg swallowing this deal and may quits almost straight away and leta let conservatives vote for a new leader / pm... Johnson... Mogg... Or pob
She won't get the dup to agree but faced with no deal I could see 20 or so labour MP's defecting as there are plenty who will be deselcted by momentum anyway so might as well vote to block no deal even if it means backing Mays deal.
I actually think this is more likley than no deal or actually a real re-negotiation or a ge or a 2nd ref
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So...
MPs want a new deal, but can't happen because of (1).
MPs won't let us leave without a deal, but that can't happen because they've said that (1) is unacceptable
We're stuck between a rock and a hard place.
The only way out is a new Referendum of some sort. Obviously, Brexiteers aren't going to be happy, so it can only be announced after every other option has been exhausted in the most public way possible. I think that's the tiresome process we're going through right now.
- There's one and only one deal on table.
MPs want a new deal, but can't happen because of (1).
MPs won't let us leave without a deal, but that can't happen because they've said that (1) is unacceptable
We're stuck between a rock and a hard place.
The only way out is a new Referendum of some sort. Obviously, Brexiteers aren't going to be happy, so it can only be announced after every other option has been exhausted in the most public way possible. I think that's the tiresome process we're going through right now.
Yes, I would very much imagine they expect the UK to cave one way or another as they believe the UK ultimately has more to lose in a no deal scenario. It's a rather high risk approach though.
There's also the internal Irish politics of the situation to consider. If a no deal comes about then the UK will be blamed for undermining the GFA, especially given that the Irish government's current approach to Brexit has public support. If Fine Gael caves on the backstop then they will ship criticism instead, which would be hugely damaging politically.
It seems to me that a referendum is far less likely than a GE.
Best case scenario at this point I think is A50 being extended for a GE.
The Irish can't agree to something that fundamentally breaks the GFA even if the British Government doesn't seem to give a shit. That they may get a hard border anyway shows how little the consequences of leaving were thought about prior to the referendum and/or how contemptuous of the Irish many Brits are.
You are part of project fear
Any group of MPs have 14 days to pass another vote of confidence and form a government. If they can't then a GE is triggered.
A national government is still a reasonable possibility in my view. I've been thinking that since I realised the withdrawal agreement in current form will never pass.
I think our view is more that a no deal and leaving your borders open and the various other unicorns your MP's are pushing for isn't a tolerable situation. Sooner or later you'd have to ... come to terms with trade laws as they exist? Or you wouldn't maybe and become some strange little outlier like North Korea or something in which case we'd probably want to distance ourselves from you as much as possible.
We just have more time on our side than you do, we've got existing backups to replace you with. Northern Ireland is where the real pain will be felt but we aren't in a position to help them any more than insisting on a backstop. Even if we rolled over the other 26 countries have a pile of issues with it.
If there was an alternative proposal to deal with it, it might be different. But there never is
Least surprising part of this evening
Just out of interest, what is the laughing face in response to here?
They'll try to spin anything into a positive, delusional.
I seen Andrew Bridgen on Channel 4 last night saying we won't be ''crashing out with no deal, we'll be cashing in''. I assume he was only referring to himself and his headbanger mates in the ERG.
This is the idiot who thought English people had the right to apply for an Irish passport.
Yep, agree with all that. It would be curious to see what would actually happen to the border in a 'no deal' scenario. Sadly, we might well find out pretty quickly.
But I also do think MPs have a point that an indefinite backstop is not tolerable either. It would very likely become the de facto future arrangement in itself. At every contentious point in the trade negotiations, the EU could just say, 'fine, if you don't want to accept what we propose, then you can just stay in the backstop'. It would kill any negotiating leverage the UK has, and it has very little leverage to begin with.
I've no idea what a conceivable compromise could be. I doubt there is one. The whole thing is an entirely predictable mess.
The idea of the backstop is to largely protect the Good Friday Agreement though until a solution to the border arrangements is found in the future. To put a time limit on it is basically the same as putting a time limit on the Good Friday Agreement.
I doubt the technological solution they've been banging on about the last 2 years will exist for 10-20 years if ever.
Is almost the entire parliament fecking delusional? Some papers are even spinning this as a victory for May. WTF? The EU are not going to renegotiate on the backstop?
I'd say there is close to zero chance of this.
I feel desperately sorry for the many, many sane British people who are getting lumped in with this but Britain and this Brexit shambles is the biggest laughing stock on an Earth with Donald fecking Trump as president of the United States.
Every so often I have to stop and let that sink in. A thick, racist, sexist, overweight, deluded tit with the IQ and EQ of a spoilt 4 year old is the leader of the words most influential nation and still, somehow, Britain have managed to outdo him on the embarrassment scale.
Yet there are still those within the British government, media and public who think other countries should follow their lead. That Ireland for example, should leave the EU where we have seen growth and prosperity during our few short decades as a member, to throw our lot back in with a Britain under whom we saw centuries of oppression and poverty, because they know what's best for the little old Irish who are obviously so simple they've been hoodwinked by the evil EU.
The delusion is breathtaking. Britain seems barely able to take care of itself a day at a time at the moment but some still think they should be dictating to others on policy and government. Every member of parliament and every party seems thicker than the next, to the extent they've allowed themselves to be controlled and bullied by the bloody DUP. There doesn't exist a bigger waste of space and oxygen on this planet and yet they've been given centre stage to a fiasco that will impact British society and economy for decades.
It's a complete and utter farce and if I wasn't so angry at the disregard and contempt being shown for peace on the island of Ireland, I think at times I would be reduced to fits of uncontrollable laughter.
Every so often I have to stop and let that sink in. A thick, racist, sexist, overweight, deluded tit with the IQ and EQ of a spoilt 4 year old is the leader of the words most influential nation and still, somehow, Britain have managed to outdo him on the embarrassment scale.
Yet there are still those within the British government, media and public who think other countries should follow their lead. That Ireland for example, should leave the EU where we have seen growth and prosperity during our few short decades as a member, to throw our lot back in with a Britain under whom we saw centuries of oppression and poverty, because they know what's best for the little old Irish who are obviously so simple they've been hoodwinked by the evil EU.
The delusion is breathtaking. Britain seems barely able to take care of itself a day at a time at the moment but some still think they should be dictating to others on policy and government. Every member of parliament and every party seems thicker than the next, to the extent they've allowed themselves to be controlled and bullied by the bloody DUP. There doesn't exist a bigger waste of space and oxygen on this planet and yet they've been given centre stage to a fiasco that will impact British society and economy for decades.
It's a complete and utter farce and if I wasn't so angry at the disregard and contempt being shown for peace on the island of Ireland, I think at times I would be reduced to fits of uncontrollable laughter.
It's the will of the people...who stand to make a fortune out of this obvious swindle.
It is obvious that this parliament:
1. Does not want to cancel brexit.
2. Does not want to delay brexit.
3. Does not want a no-deal brexit.
4. Does not want a bad deal brexit.
5. Does not want a EU-approved deal brexit.
1. Does not want to cancel brexit.
2. Does not want to delay brexit.
3. Does not want a no-deal brexit.
4. Does not want a bad deal brexit.
5. Does not want a EU-approved deal brexit.
Surely the only real options, not all mutually exclusive, are
1) Negotiate a delay - this would require a better reason that "we want to keep bickering about what colour unicorn to ride to backstop negotiations".
2) Withdraw A50
3) New referendum (with or without a GE first)
4) No deal exit
Renegotiate backstop isn't one of those options. The EU may have mentioned this before.
1) Negotiate a delay - this would require a better reason that "we want to keep bickering about what colour unicorn to ride to backstop negotiations".
2) Withdraw A50
3) New referendum (with or without a GE first)
4) No deal exit
Renegotiate backstop isn't one of those options. The EU may have mentioned this before.
Both May and Trump may as well just Tweet "hold my beer" every time the other does something even more stupid than the very stupid thing they last did.
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It's not so much about a technological solution, which is pure fantasy, but about alignment of rules. Specifically, whose rules are recognised and applied.
It's not just pure speculation from me that leverage for the future trade negotiations is fundamental to the EU's insistence on the backstop being indefinite. The leaked diplomatic note from Sabine Weyand (the EU negotiator) to EU member states said:
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I'm an Irish man from the South who will be buying a house in Northern Ireland within the next four years so..Yeah Westminster I guess?
Keep it going?
Keep it going?
Or the EU will do what May has been doing the last 3 years and just go: "That's not how we understand it" and do whatever the feck they like. People forget there's no higher arbiter.