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Do you think there will be a Deal or No Deal?

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Paul the Wolf said:


So the PM who negotiated the backstop urges MPs to back a pointless amendment to ditch the backstop.

The UK is broken.
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It's hard to believe. She is basically telling the world that her word and signature is worth literally nothing.
 
Paul the Wolf said:


So the PM who negotiated the backstop urges MPs to back a pointless amendment to ditch the backstop.

The UK is broken.
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Yep. A PM is backing an amendment that calls for her to negotiate something she literally and repeatedly said was impossible to negotiate. Clearly things are going well.
 
JPRouve said:
It's hard to believe. She is basically telling the world that her word and signature is worth literally nothing.
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You remember just before Xmas 2017 , over a year ago - she said she had agreed certain parts of the agreement. When she came back after Xmas last January she denied everything when they were supposed to put it into legal text.
She is totally untrustworthy.

Her only intent is to last as long as possible as PM and she will say and do anything to prolong it.
 
stevoc said:
The irony there Sammy, fecking hell.
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That's not the irony. This is the irony

'The EU view ROI as a small country which the EU grand designers of the project will toss aside, damage and abandon once they had been used'"

Considering the apalling way the British had treated Ireland for most of its history I wonder how anyone would write that with a straight face.
 
Paul the Wolf said:
You remember just before Xmas 2017 , over a year ago - she said she had agreed certain parts of the agreement. When she came back after Xmas last January she denied everything when they were supposed to put it into legal text.
She is totally untrustworthy.

Her only intent is to last as long as possible as PM and she will say and do anything to prolong it.
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I actually forgot about that. I would love to know what India or Australia are thinking about it, they were named as some of the countries that could talk about an FTA in the months following Brexit.
 
People that have investments in the United Kingdom might be better off selling it and invest elsewhere in the Eurozone as the English parliament are leading the UK into a disastrous economic situation. The entire parliament and the MPs are playing games and have shown absolutely no political ability to steer the UK through this safely. This has hard Brexit written all over it due to incompetence on the entire political spectrum and history will condemn them all for it if it ends up with a Hard Brexit based upon mostly lies, deceit and ignorant nationalism. When this country needed political acumen and intelligent leadership it has been nowhere to be found and that is ultimately the fault of the Tories and Theresa May.
 
Crazy we aren't going to be allowed a second referendum given the absolute feckwittery on show.
 
JPRouve said:
I actually forgot about that. I would love to know what India or Australia are thinking about it, they were named as some of the countries that could talk about an FTA in the months following Brexit.
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Well all the Commonwealth countries were supposed to be falling over each other desperate to have deals with the UK.

The Tories still think it's the 19th century but the world is watching very closely at their behaviour. They're going to be in for a nasty surprise.
Not only are they leaving an important trading bloc but are proving they cannot be trusted and also will not have any trade deals in hand.

I wonder who will have the upper hand in any negotiations. Bit of a turn around from the Empire.
 
The Irish border is never going to get sorted without a backstop OR customs union - there are no other options (apart from stopping BREXIT I guess). It was the same two years ago and it's the same now. I've honestly no clue what planet the PM is on.

Are we still working on the assumption that the EU needs the UK more than we need them? Is that still a thing?
 
John Baron, who tabled another of the amendments, has said

I urge fellow Conservatives to support [the Brady amendment]. This stands the best chance of uniting the party, getting the DUP on board, and sending a clear message to the EU that the backstop is the key problem – without a majority tomorrow, the EU could conclude the backstop is not important.

These people have left planet Earth - of course the EU is completely unaware of what's going on.
 
My theory is almost all of Theresa Maysa actions over the past two years are completely explainable if you approach it from the angle that she believes the EU can't, for whatever reason, actually read the UK news.

I assume she thinks everyone else is as hoplelessly insular as we are...
 
JPRouve said:
It's hard to believe. She is basically telling the world that her word and signature is worth literally nothing.
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I don't want to defend May but that's not really fair or logical. Any agreement was pending to parliaments approval which she hasn't got. Your statement suggests a commitment was made beyond that.

She doesn't and shouldn't have supreme authority over parliament.
 
Smores said:
I don't want to defend May but that's not really fair or logical. Any agreement was pending to parliaments approval which she hasn't got. Your statement suggests a commitment was made beyond that.

She doesn't and shouldn't have supreme authority over parliament.
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The EU negotiations were conducted by Michel Barnier and his team and he continuously updated the EU27 on the details of the negotiations. Which is why the 27 other countries are fully aware of the agreement and will ratify it.

You're saying that May had no authority to conduct the negotiations in the first place.
 
Paul the Wolf said:
The EU negotiations were conducted by Michel Barnier and his team and he continuously updated the EU27 on the details of the negotiations. Which is why the 27 other countries are fully aware of the agreement and will ratify it.

You're saying that May had no authority to conduct the negotiations in the first place.
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Correct she didn't because she tried to bypass parliament and never got an indicative view of what would pass.

I don't think the EU were unaware of that at any point though.
 
Smores said:
I don't want to defend May but that's not really fair or logical. Any agreement was pending to parliaments approval which she hasn't got. Your statement suggests a commitment was made beyond that.

She doesn't and shouldn't have supreme authority over parliament.
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That's nonsensical, she negotiated a deal on behalf of the UK as the chief of the executive, she is now actively reneging it. There are three issues, first you are insinuating that she didn't have authority to negotiate, then that she didn't represent the UK and that parliament willfully let her negotiate during two years knowing that she couldn't.
 
Smores said:
Correct she didn't because she tried to bypass parliament and never got an indicative view of what would pass.

I don't think the EU were unaware of that at any point though.
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In fairness if it wasn't for Gina miller parliament wouldn't have even got a meaningful vote on the issue... May would just have cracked on and signed the deal herself
 
Smores said:
Correct she didn't because she tried to bypass parliament and never got an indicative view of what would pass.

I don't think the EU were unaware of that at any point though.
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Yes but that is entirely her fault and parliament's fault. She can't spend two years negotiating and then turn around and say oh actually parliament don't want that.
 
Paul the Wolf said:
Yes but that is entirely her fault and parliament's fault. She can't spend two years negotiating and then turn around and say oh actually parliament don't want that.
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Well yeah it is but she hasn't gone back on her word she's just led a poor negotiation which we all knew already.

Barnier could have been in the same situation if a member had refused to sign last minute but as you say he involved the approvers in the process to mitigate that
 
sun_tzu said:
https://www.theguardian.com/politic...back-away-from-anti-backstop-brexit-amendment

If the erg hold that line the Brady amendment is sunk

And the only other amendment that seems to have a chance of passing I'd the cooper Boyles one and that's looking close

I think we end tomorrow with no ammendments passing proving once and for all there is a majority against every option but no majority for any
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Even if an alternative deal were possible, I can't see there being a majority in parliament for any of them.
 
devilish said:
That's not the irony. This is the irony

'The EU view ROI as a small country which the EU grand designers of the project will toss aside, damage and abandon once they had been used'"

Considering the apalling way the British had treated Ireland for most of its history I wonder how anyone would write that with a straight face.
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The DUP and Sammy Wilson in particular have no shame. They write and say batshit stuff all the time.
 
Smores said:
Well yeah it is but she hasn't gone back on her word she's just led a poor negotiation which we all knew already.

Barnier could have been in the same situation if a member had refused to sign last minute but as you say he involved the approvers in the process to mitigate that
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She has gone back on her word because the backstop was her negotiation and now she's urging MPs to vote against it. She's undertaken the negotiations all wrongly and that is why the EU have conducted the negotiations in the proper way to avoid this.

Having said that, imagine having the negotiation done between the EU and the whole of parliament. During the two years that she has been negotiating with the EU, the UK parliament has been ripping itself apart arguing amongst itself and within parties and they still have not got a consensus and they never will.
 
sun_tzu said:
In fairness if it wasn't for Gina miller parliament wouldn't have even got a meaningful vote on the issue... May would just have cracked on and signed the deal herself
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Nah, Miller's old news (and I suspect there's a reason that the media can't let her go...)

The meaningful vote was a result of opposition to May and her course of action and a reflection of her weakness throughout this process. It was introduced into law as an amendment to the 2018 withdrawal act.

Miller's achievement (such that it was) may have been to set something of a precedent that Parliament should be involved in the process, but her tangible accomplishments were an act so short I can quote it in full without pissing anybody off with the length of it:

European Union (Notification of Withdrawal) Act 2017

2017 CHAPTER 9

An Act to confer power on the Prime Minister to notify, under Article 50(2) of the Treaty on European Union, the United Kingdom’s intention to withdraw from the EU. [16th March 2017]

BE IT ENACTED by the Queen’s most Excellent Majesty, by and with the advice and consent of the Lords Spiritual and Temporal, and Commons, in this present Parliament assembled, and by the authority of the same, as follows:—


(1) (2)

Power to notify withdrawal from the EU

The Prime Minister may notify, under Article 50(2) of the Treaty on European Union, the United Kingdom’s intention to withdraw from the EU.

This section has effect despite any provision made by or under the European Communities Act 1972 or any other enactment.

Short title

This Act may be cited as the European Union (Notification of Withdrawal) Act 2017.
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Had May not fallen victim to her own hubris three months later it's possible she would have succeeded in her attempts to railroad parliament even with the Miller case.
 
Man those last few pages were more depressing than usual. Might take a break from this thread for a bit...
 
Massive Spanner said:
It may seem logical but it's not going to be logical to a lot of NI citizens. Half of NI identify themselves as British. Just because there was a majority to stay in the EU does not mean those people would prefer to not have a border with a country they don't see themselves as part of over a country they do see themselves as part of.
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Barring a small group of very bitter people; no one would want to see the hard borders go up here again. We’ve already lived through that and people like the freedom of coming and going over the border. Many people might have family on one side of the border or the other. Also if a border goes up I have no doubt that the ‘new ira’ will come out from under their rocks and start all the shit up again.

Frankly I’m pissed that the government types, various MPs and the press are trying to pass the buck to Ireland. It’s the uks mess, they signed up for the GFA and they need to honour it.

It’s turning into the biggest political clusterfeck of all time
 
Don't give a shit anymore. We should just crash out and let everything burn.
 
Do I need to start prepping now for a no deal?

Thinking it’s prudent to get some essentials given I have Young children?
 
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