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Do you think there will be a Deal or No Deal?


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Downing Street lobby briefing - Summary
Here are the main points from the Number 10 lobby briefing.

  • Downing Street said explicitly that the Brexit withdrawal deal would have to change.
  • The prime minister’s spokesman suggested that, despite EU claims that the withdrawal agreement could not be renegotiated the EU would have to compromise. Asked about EU objections to a renegotiation, he said:
What we have consistently heard from European leaders is that they want the United Kingdom to leave with a deal. There’s a recognition that the United Kingdom leaving with a deal is in their best interests, as well as those of the UK. The deal which has been agreed was defeated by parliament. Therefore, if we are going to leave with a deal, clearly we are going to need to make some changes in order to win parliamentary support.


So despite the fact that the other 27 EU nations said the deal cannot change and that the British PM herself actually negotiated the deal and that the backstop is there because the UK don't want to be in the CU or SM which makes the backstop necessary, all the other countries have to change because UK parliament voted the agreement down and if the EU doesn't change its stance the UK will commit suicide, so there.
 
Downing Street lobby briefing - Summary
Here are the main points from the Number 10 lobby briefing.

  • Downing Street said explicitly that the Brexit withdrawal deal would have to change.
  • The prime minister’s spokesman suggested that, despite EU claims that the withdrawal agreement could not be renegotiated the EU would have to compromise. Asked about EU objections to a renegotiation, he said:
What we have consistently heard from European leaders is that they want the United Kingdom to leave with a deal. There’s a recognition that the United Kingdom leaving with a deal is in their best interests, as well as those of the UK. The deal which has been agreed was defeated by parliament. Therefore, if we are going to leave with a deal, clearly we are going to need to make some changes in order to win parliamentary support.


So despite the fact that the other 27 EU nations said the deal cannot change and that the British PM herself actually negotiated the deal and that the backstop is there because the UK don't want to be in the CU or SM which makes the backstop necessary, all the other countries have to change because UK parliament voted the agreement down and if the EU doesn't change its stance the UK will commit suicide, so there.

These are all-time bad uses of the words "therefore" and "clearly".
 
Idiots. They were fecking warned that trying to re-open the withdrawl agreement could lead to some of the 27 trying to add in their own additional terms, which could feck the whole thing up. The 27 weren't all over the moon about the agreement that was reached, there was significant compromise on both sides. Now with just 61 days to go until we leave, they want to re-open that entire can of worms and risk it all falling to pieces. Goddamn morons.
 
If I'm not mistaken the initial proposition was that NI stays in the CU and the SM which would allow no border between NI and ROI while also respecting the referendum results in NI. Maybe the EU should publicly offer that deal once again, it doesn't need any backstop.
 
If I'm not mistaken the initial proposition was that NI stays in the CU and the SM which would allow no border between NI and ROI while also respecting the referendum results in NI. Maybe the EU should publicly offer that deal once again, it doesn't need any backstop.
cant get through parliament due to the conservatives who need the DUP votes - and their only real read line in this whole thing is not treating NI different to the UK
 
If I'm not mistaken the initial proposition was that NI stays in the CU and the SM which would allow no border between NI and ROI while also respecting the referendum results in NI. Maybe the EU should publicly offer that deal once again, it doesn't need any backstop.

Yes it was , seems the logical solution to the backstop, but May still refers to it fairly often saying no British PM would allow a border in the Irish Sea and splitting the country etc. Then you have the DUP.
 
cant get through parliament due to the conservatives who need the DUP votes - and their only real read line in this whole thing is not treating NI different to the UK

That's why I talked about making it public, the point would be to expose the government and DUP. They are the ones that created an issue when two solutions have been offered.
 
Yes it was , seems the logical solution to the backstop, but May still refers to it fairly often saying no British PM would allow a border in the Irish Sea and splitting the country etc. Then you have the DUP.
It may seem logical but it's not going to be logical to a lot of NI citizens. Half of NI identify themselves as British. Just because there was a majority to stay in the EU does not mean those people would prefer to not have a border with a country they don't see themselves as part of over a country they do see themselves as part of.
 
That's why I talked about making it public, the point would be to expose the government and DUP. They are the ones that created an issue when two solutions have been offered.
in fairness its already public - we all know that was offered and we all know the reasons it didnt work - and the thought of the DUP responding to public preassure is again a non starter - they just dont care
 
in fairness its already public - we all know that was offered and we all know the reasons it didnt work - and the thought of the DUP responding to public preassure is again a non starter - they just dont care

Yep. Which is largely what the Irish FM was alluding to when he pointed out that the current agreement had been designed around the UK's red lines & that the DUP don't speak for NI.
 
It may seem logical but it's not going to be logical to a lot of NI citizens. Half of NI identify themselves as British. Just because there was a majority to stay in the EU does not mean those people would prefer to not have a border with a country they don't see themselves as part of over a country they do see themselves as part of.

Yes I realise that.
There is no real answer .
From a practical point of view the UK has to stay in the CU/SM which is also refused by the UK parliament.

There is no way the UK can have a real Brexit without breaking the GFA.
 
It may seem logical but it's not going to be logical to a lot of NI citizens. Half of NI identify themselves as British. Just because there was a majority to stay in the EU does not mean those people would prefer to not have a border with a country they don't see themselves as part of over a country they do see themselves as part of.
in fairness its already public - we all know that was offered and we all know the reasons it didnt work - and the thought of the DUP responding to public preassure is again a non starter - they just dont care

That's the thing though, the EU should communicate publicly about the two available options because it becomes obvious that DUP and the UK are aiming for a hard border but don't want to take the responsibility. At the moment we are blurring the topic by talking about red lines. We should put the answers on the table and let DUP and May take their responsibility in front of everyone.
 
It may seem logical but it's not going to be logical to a lot of NI citizens. Half of NI identify themselves as British. Just because there was a majority to stay in the EU does not mean those people would prefer to not have a border with a country they don't see themselves as part of over a country they do see themselves as part of.

But a sea is a border ...
I get what your saying, but its kind of silly isn't it? I suppose its besides the point with Northern Ireland, little things like that are hugely significant.
I presume if Stormont is reinstated they could renegotiate as they see fit?
 
Beginning to think that all those who have claimed that "the E.U always leaves it to the last minute" are actually just trying to gap the time until they can say "It's too late now".
 
But a sea is a border ...
I get what your saying, but its kind of silly isn't it? I suppose its besides the point with Northern Ireland, little things like that are hugely significant.
I presume if Stormont is reinstated they could renegotiate as they see fit?
Oh it's incredibly silly, no doubt there, but the whole thing is incredibly silly. It's just one more silly way of thinking that's led us to this absolute shambles. Ultimately though that is the way a big part of NI think (I mean, just look at the DUP). They would rather there be a hard border with Ireland than to have a "border" with the UK.

I think either choice, hard border with Ireland, or hard border with the UK, would potentially bring NI back to the times of the troubles anyway, so neither are a realistic option.
 
That's the thing though, the EU should communicate publicly about the two available options because it becomes obvious that DUP and the UK are aiming for a hard border but don't want to take the responsibility. At the moment we are blurring the topic by talking about red lines. We should put the answers on the table and let DUP and May take their responsibility in front of everyone.

I am still optimistic that there will be some form of negotiated agreement.

I say that on the basis that:
1. The government/parliament will not allow us to leave with no deal.
2. The government/parliament will not withdraw Article 50 stopping Brexit.
To me those should be the only so called red lines and however significant the Withdrawal Bill is, the more important thing will be the Future Trading Arrangement with the EU.

I do believe though that to get to the negotiated agreement it may well be necessary to delay the actual leaving date unless both sides are able to make real progress.
 
It may seem logical but it's not going to be logical to a lot of NI citizens. Half of NI identify themselves as British. Just because there was a majority to stay in the EU does not mean those people would prefer to not have a border with a country they don't see themselves as part of over a country they do see themselves as part of.

I mostly agree with what you're saying but the reality is there are already border checks on the movement of livestock and agricultural equipment among other things between Britain and Northern Ireland, not to mention different laws on Gay marriage and abortion. NI is already different than Britain but it would still be part of the UK even if it remained in the CU/SM.

Having a border in the Irish sea has to be the better option than a border in Ireland and breaking the Good Friday Agreement by stationing police/military personnel at the border crossings.
 
The longer the list the better.

Negative campaigning won't work for this, you will just calls of project fear.

Leave won the last referendum without listing any benefits, moreover everyone's still waiting three years later for the list.

Tell the leavers they'll get a free holiday in Blackpool if they vote Remain, they believed the same crap the last time.
 
I mostly agree with what you're saying but the reality is there are already border checks on the movement of livestock and agricultural equipment among other things between Britain and Northern Ireland, not to mention different laws on Gay marriage and abortion. NI is already different than Britain but it would still be part of the UK even if it remained in the CU/SM.

Having a border in the Irish sea has to be the better option than a border in Ireland and breaking the Good Friday Agreement by stationing police/military personnel at the border crossings.
Like I said, "logical to these NI citizens" is not the same as being logical :) everything you've said there is correct but do you think they'll care about any of that? Any hypothetical border or any kind between them and the mainland to keep them closer tied to Europe instead will cause uproar.
 
Beginning to think that all those who have claimed that "the E.U always leaves it to the last minute" are actually just trying to gap the time until they can say "It's too late now".
yup - no deal is the legal default and if that is your preferred outcome then stringing out the process as long as possible is your best (in fact probably only real tactic as its unlikely they could get a majority for no deal)
I think they will fail tomorrow but i suspect the thinking is along the lines of if we can pass the amendment to force May back to negotiate then this will buy us something like 4 weeks where we say negotiations are ongoing.
When the EU refuse to negotiate and there is 1 month left we blame them and prepare for no deal.
we also blame May saying a brexiteer would have made the EU negotiate and get ready for the inevitable leadership election when May has dragged us out with no deal and is basically even more of a toxic brand than she is now.

then its time to get a brexiteer in charge and time to start cutting taxes and welfare - its almost admirable that whilst I dont agree with any of those policies at least those that do are consistent in trying to achieve it.

If Coopers amendment does not pass Benn and Corbyn should just resign as the had the no deal amendment in the bag on the meaningful vote but pulled it to play party politics for a tactic (force a GE) that was clearly going to fail
 
Leave won the last referendum without listing any benefits, moreover everyone's still waiting three years later for the list.

Tell the leavers they'll get a free holiday in Blackpool if they vote Remain, they believed the same crap the last time.
not true... they said there would be £350m per week for the NHS - a guaranteed free trade deal with the EU as it was the easiest deal in history and USA etc beating a path to our door to sign more trade deals.

They promised lots of benefits
 
not true... they said there would be £350m per week for the NHS - a guaranteed free trade deal with the EU as it was the easiest deal in history and USA etc beating a path to our door to sign more trade deals.

They promised lots of benefits

The free holiday in Blackpool is more realistic than those. The small print is that they have to make their own way there , it's in a beach hut and only lasts five minutes.
 
Labour criticised for abstaining on immigration bill
MPs will debate the second reading of the immigration bill this afternoon (or the immigration and social security coordination [EU withdrawal] bill, to give it its full title). This is the legislation that will bring EU nationals under UK immigration law after Brexit. Labour will abstain when it comes to the vote.
 
Like I said, "logical to these NI citizens" is not the same as being logical :) everything you've said there is correct but do you think they'll care about any of that? Any hypothetical border or any kind between them and the mainland to keep them closer tied to Europe instead will cause uproar.

I'm from NI myself mate so i know what you mean, you're right of course. Logic rarely comes into it over here.

I have suspected for a while now that the DUP see this whole Brexit/backstop thing as nothing more than a means to try to get the GFA ripped up. They were after all the only party to campaign against it.

If May had not got into bed with them then they could have been safely ignored during this whole process.
 
Regarding “People’s Vote”

Weren’t the original points that: a) we respect the referendum result but b) we should get a vote on what kind of Brexit we end up with.

Has that now become cancel Brexit or repeat the original referendum?
 
Regarding “People’s Vote”

Weren’t the original points that: a) we respect the referendum result but b) we should get a vote on what kind of Brexit we end up with.

Has that now become cancel Brexit or repeat the original referendum?

The problem with this though is that it revolves around MP's actually being willing to give us that a vote on that, before then passing it as a result. Which they're unwilling to do.

It also doesn't really work because it presumes we make a singular voice on what sort of Brexit we want - that's not necessarily something we can do, because it involves the EU agreeing with said wishes. And any adjustments which come after any hypothetical vote on what Brexit we want (and there inevitably would be some) would then invalidate the referendum itself.

And even that isn't really possible now, because the EU appear to be finished negotiating, or at least that's the position they're taking for now. As a result it's either May's deal, a deal which benefits the EU even more, or a no deal Brexit. The latter clearly isn't viable and politicians have a responsibility to make sure it doesn't happen. If we can't reach a deal beyond that then the more responsible option is to call off the whole process, at least in the short-term.