There will be a lot of data behind their approach. I tried explaining this possibility to Oscie. It’s only my assumption of course but I think that if you had a Venn Diagram of voters, the number of Leave Labour voters who would stay at home or switch to vote UKIP/Tory if Labour tried to run on a pro-Remain/2nd Referendum platform far outweighs the number of Remainer-Tories who would actually vote for Corbyn.
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There will be a lot of data behind their approach. I tried explaining this possibility to Oscie. It’s only my assumption of course but I think that if you had a Venn Diagram of voters, the number of Leave Labour voters who would stay at home or switch to vote UKIP/Tory if Labour tried to run on a pro-Remain/2nd Referendum platform far outweighs the number of Remainer-Tories who would actually vote for Corbyn.
Some time on Tuesday evening I believe.
Are you telling me to get my holiday Euro's in now? How much worse can it get?
Bizarre, isn't it?
"I'm not a racist. So to prove I'm not, I'm going to...become a racist!"
We live in a strange world.
I dunno, I think this would depend on many technicalities of any individual campaign and what happens. It might be the case that it'd happen now, but then that's largely because Labour have spent so much time veering between committing to Brexit and not really saying anything about it at all to the point where a switch would be hypocritical.
Even if some Labour leavers did abandon the party there's a solid argument it wouldn't necessarily lose the party too many seats. In the north of England there are a lot of pro-Brexit areas where Labour could lose, say, 5-10% of their current voting tally and still win the seat comfortably. Meanwhile, there were some fairly liberal Tory-type seats like Kensington they managed to pick up in 2016 by virtue of being less pro-Brexit than the Tories.
I reckon it'd also depend on how the Lib Dems perform. They're fecking awful when it comes to marketing themselves and have no idea how to muster any sort of voter enthusiasm, but if they did manage to improve their polling by, say, even 5% across the country, which isn't exactly inconceivable, then that could feck over Labour.
It's been hovering around the 1.10/1.15 range for quite some time waiting to see if the Uk commits suicide or not. If the Uk does commit suicide , a lot worse , on the other hand if something sensible ensues the pound will improve.
Well the market's at about 1.11 right now for GBP/EUR so assuming May's deal gets voted down on Tuesday, I'd expect it to drop a fair way from there. You also have to consider that whoever you get your Euro's from will take some sort of a margin off of that as well, so if it drops to 1.09 for example you might only get given a rate of 1.07.
It'll probably go back up again but the uncertainty will hurt the GBP a lot.
Ugh I'm on Eastern Time so I'll still be at work. Might not get out on time that day but we'll see.
I don't think all Brexiters are Racist but I do think if you're still an ardent Brexitier now you're either looking to profit off the chaos, Racist, thick as pigshite or not paying attention.
The EU has it's issues but this country has significantly larger issues the majority of which have virtually nothing to do with the EU.
For me their is no reasonable reason to leave the EU if you weighed up the positives/negatives the risk/reward is like gambling everything you have for the chance of winning 1pence.
Part of me just wants it to happen, just to see the chaos but the brexiters will never take responsibility for their stupidity they'll blame and bully.
I don't believe there's a set time so it could happen late in the evening.
Rather have a election than another referendum, what a load of bollocks!
Waiting for idiots to spin Lammy as a Centrist Blairite.
I mean some are starting to call Paul Mason that ffs!
I see. Cheers
I'm thankfully not from the UK, but insulin normally has an expiry date of 18months approx from the manufacturing date. Presumably your partner can order it as needed by prescription so I don't think there would be any harm in having supplies for 3 to 6 months. It looks like everything could be a fiasco by March, but I can't imagine there not being life dependent medication available after a few weeks or months at worst.
The move of jobs (and mainly assets) from Axa UK to Axa Ireland has been pretty significant news here. Considering they're transferring the Reinsurance arm to Dublin - that's another massive chunk of assets being kept on the books in Ireland. The amount of Reinsurers in Dublin is also making the place comparable to Bermuda "Risk efficient" model....
More than a trillion dollars worth of assets moved out of UK based financial institutions already apparently.
Junker still staying they don't know what clarifications are required. The votes on Tuesday and the previous vote was nearly a month ago yet there's still nothing achieved. Incredible that its getting very little coverage.
There seems to be talk of the Lib Dems pulling their referendum amendment due to uncertainty on numbers. It won't take many Labour rebel MPs from leave constituencies (supposing it is Labour backed) to defeat it. The general election angle is probably partially to cater for these MPs concerns.
There seems to be talk of the Lib Dems pulling their referendum amendment due to uncertainty on numbers. It won't take many Labour rebel MPs from leave constituencies (supposing it is Labour backed) to defeat it. The general election angle is probably partially to cater for these MPs concerns.
To add to this, he said that May is still trying to get around the Irish border backstop. That's where he says that he is in continuous contact with Downing Street and will provide the needed clarifications but won't renegotiate.
Does anybody else listen to brexitcast?
Interesting bit of info there but the amendments added onto the bill will likley be voted on before mays deal
Sounds like its nothing but it means that most probably the kier starmer amendment (i.e. reject this deal and reject no deal) will be voted on before mays deal
And Starmers deal will be backed by labour and other opposition parties plus about 20 conservative rebels (hard brexiteers will vote with the government as they want no deal to still be an option)
If thats the case it will pass and then there wont actually be a vote on Mays deal
This will mean that May will not suffer a catastrophic defeat and then will be able to spin it as a handful of remoaner rebels sabotaging brexit...
That will then give her enough time to try and buy off / bully the conservative MP's who voted against her to be brought onside before re-presenting the deal again... beyond Ken Clarke I wonder how many others would risk a general election?... its still a very long shot but this must be her way of thinking that she can possibly get her deal through id parliment blocks no deal and gets her eurosceptic wing voting for any brexit rather than no brexit - then as I say there is a more managable 20 or so MP's to target / bribe
Interesting bit of info there but the amendments added onto the bill will likley be voted on before mays deal
Sounds like its nothing but it means that most probably the kier starmer amendment (i.e. reject this deal and reject no deal) will be voted on before mays deal
And Starmers deal will be backed by labour and other opposition parties plus about 20 conservative rebels (hard brexiteers will vote with the government as they want no deal to still be an option)
If thats the case it will pass and then there wont actually be a vote on Mays deal
This will mean that May will not suffer a catastrophic defeat and then will be able to spin it as a handful of remoaner rebels sabotaging brexit...
That will then give her enough time to try and buy off / bully the conservative MP's who voted against her to be brought onside before re-presenting the deal again... beyond Ken Clarke I wonder how many others would risk a general election?... its still a very long shot but this must be her way of thinking that she can possibly get her deal through id parliment blocks no deal and gets her eurosceptic wing voting for any brexit rather than no brexit - then as I say there is a more managable 20 or so MP's to target / bribe
No, but the only option apart from May's deal and No deal is to cancel Brexit and Starmer doesn't agree to that either. Sleepwalking to No deal because they can't actually stop it.
Indeed - I suspect it would require legal challenges and rulings to find out exactly what happens but in theory
If No deal is voted against but No deal is the legal default what can parliament actually do?
I assume they could force the government to gp back to the EU - who say they wont negotiate and then again what can parliament force the government to do - could they force them to revoke A50 unilaterally - much as I personally would prefer to remain I think the politicaly kick back from that would be so corrosive i dread to think of what would happen?
But if you have a legally binding motion banning no deal
and a legal default position of no deal then they are not compatible
A re-negotiation and extension has to be agreed by the EU which seems unlikely so yeah I dont think there is a majority of MP;s who would vote to force a unilatteral withdrawal of A50 without a 2nd referendum but legally I do wonder what would happen
Starmer's hoping for his hare-brained deal to be even considered by the EU.
The Uk can't force the EU to renegotiate and they won't anyway.
According to law as it stands the Uk leaves the EU in March under whatever circumstances are prevalent at the time. Somehow parliament have to decide one way or another which of the 3 options they will take.
The problem is there's no majority for anything so by default they leave the EU unless A50 is revoked.
Yes politics will be toxic in the UK if they were forced to revoke A50 but it will be anyway because any Brexit will be toxic for the country as well. The genie's out of the bottle and there's no way to put it back in.
"Do you back a second referendum - Peoples vote?" Yes - 46% No - 34% Dont know - 20%
"Who do you trust on Brexit?" May - 34% Corbyn - 21% Neither - 45%
Starting to think the UK as a whole has no idea what it wants.
I immediately mistrust any poll that has the Lib Dems as high 11% but those numbers aren't bad for a centre left alliance
This is where i get confused really because an amendment as such that passes as you say would in effect kill the bill but I'm sure you couldn't represent the exact same bill a week later so there'd have to be something different which the EU won't allow. Perhaps it can be superficial...
I think this is why they were so concerned about Grieve's latest amendment, it provided a clear view that Mays deal won't pass prior to the vote.
Hence, why it was incredibly stupid for referendum not to include clause which requires the vast majority to agree on the thing for it to be binding, something like 66% at least.
There were supposedly 17.4 million different versions of Brexit but what unites all of them is that none of them like what the reality will be and they all wanted the same benefits of being in the EU and none of the responsibilities.
yep.
60% more trust the maybot than Corbyn on brexit... Oooooh (dear) Jeremy corbyn
Yes I think a superficial tweak would probably be sufficient
As I say my real point of wtf happens is if there is a binding parliment motion ruing out no deal... And the legal default is no deal... What happens?
Can parliment force a vote to make the government withdraw article 50?... Certainly one for the lawyers I think and tbh no idea if there is a majority to vote to enact that... Even if there is a majority to currently (it seems ) to rule it out
I just received my letter from the immigration dept outlining what I have to do to stay after brexit 
The bigger story in that article is there's 140 Labour MPs opposed to it. Makes little difference what Corbyn backs if they can't be convinced to vote for it, for some it would be the end of their political careers so a tough job and why the people's vote hasn't got their backing so far.
There is never going to be a majority for a second referendum, at least not now.
The choices are pretty clear.
The choices are pretty clear.
- May's deal.
- No deal.
- Revoke A50.
Problem being no majority for Mays deal
Possibly a majority for no deal but in theory still the legal default if there isn't a majority for something else
Almost certainly no majority to revoke a50 without a second referendum (for which there isn't a majority)
Oh well. UK folks, maybe you can try to look on the bright side - perhaps we're careening towards a global Children Of Men scenario and this isolation lark is going to work out great for you!
Hummmm.... 3/1 odds for UK leaving before 1st April 2019 with no deal...
Tempting
https://www.oddschecker.com/politics/british-politics/brexit/brexit-specials
Tempting
https://www.oddschecker.com/politics/british-politics/brexit/brexit-specials
Stupidity and cowardice will bring to inaction and Britain will go to No Deal by default
or maybe the Tories just don't want a deal
Very.
Is the "UK to leave officially by 29/03/2019" at 11/4 - if it is, it must be stealing money