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Do you think there will be a Deal or No Deal?

  • Total voters
    194
  • Poll closed .
Ultimate Grib said:
I will not accept a compromise to make my family poorer, less secure and hinder the opportunities of my children in the future. That is absolutely not acceptable and its quite right that parliament won't allow it however many morons vote for it.
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so what's your option? there won't be another referendum and what if there was another referendum leave won again?
 
The fact that Theresa May will spend time in parliament bashing a proposal for a second referendum shows how far things have come.
Six months ago "people'svote' was seen as a bit of a joke. Now you have brexiteers already accepting it's inevitability.
 
Adisa said:
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I was in London last week and it seemed to come as embarrassing news to many that the whole world is laughing at them!

No-one, certainly in Europe but also further afield, that I have met on my travels over the last 18 months, can figure how a country doing so well, and so universally admired, can screw itself up so badly and become such a laughing stock.

Universally agreed that although Trump is a bigger short-term embarrassment he is only one man and one that will be almost certainly removed in 2020 and normal service can be resumed.
 
SqueakyWeasel said:
I was in London last week and it seemed to come as embarrassing news to many that the whole world is laughing at them!

No-one, certainly in Europe but also further afield, that I have met on my travels over the last 18 months, can figure how a country doing so well, and so universally admired, can screw itself up so badly and become such a laughing stock.

Universally agreed that although Trump is a bigger short-term embarrassment he is only one man and one that will be almost certainly removed in 2020 and normal service can be resumed.
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I wouldn't be so sure about that one
 
No deal vs Remain in a new referendum

One thing probably of concern is the rebate we receive was up for renewal in 2020 and if we revoke article 50 we probably will be paying the £350m instead of the ~£250 million currently. I don't see us getting the rebate again.
 
redshaw said:
No deal vs Remain in a new referendum

One thing probably of concern is the rebate we receive was up for renewal in 2020 and if we revoke article 50 we probably will be paying the £350m instead of the ~£250 million currently. I don't see us getting the rebate again.
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what is the renewal mechanism? - is it majority vote - or do we have a veto?

Also the only way for a referendum to be held is for the government to legislate for it... I cant see may not having her deal on the ballot
 
redshaw said:
No deal vs Remain in a new referendum

One thing probably of concern is the rebate we receive was up for renewal in 2020 and if we revoke article 50 we probably will be paying the £350m instead of the ~£250 million currently. I don't see us getting the rebate again.
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The ECJ ruled that the UK could unilaterally withdraw from Article 50 and remain in the EU on the same terms as before. Those terms would include its veto power over withdrawal of the rebate.
 
Thunderhead said:
so what's your option? there won't be another referendum and what if there was another referendum leave won again?
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If ever there was a betreyal of the people, it was the first one where leave spouted all the bullshit possible and promised everything under the sun fulwell knowing they would never have to deliver on it. They were all as shocked as us when they won and ran away from their promises as fast as they could and they were allowed to get away with it.

We haven't seen the likes of Hannan for example in the last 2 years promoting leave much because of what they have promised. Of course the likes of Nigel and Boris have no shame so they float around spouting more crap.

There will be another referendum and I firmly believe the shit around the first one won't fly this time and people will vote to remain.
 
SqueakyWeasel said:
I was in London last week and it seemed to come as embarrassing news to many that the whole world is laughing at them!

No-one, certainly in Europe but also further afield, that I have met on my travels over the last 18 months, can figure how a country doing so well, and so universally admired, can screw itself up so badly and become such a laughing stock.

Universally agreed that although Trump is a bigger short-term embarrassment he is only one man and one that will be almost certainly removed in 2020 and normal service can be resumed.
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Er....what ?
 
Ekkie Thump said:
The ECJ ruled that the UK could unilaterally withdraw from Article 50 and remain in the EU on the same terms as before. Those terms would include its veto power over withdrawal of the rebate.
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Yes we have a veto but the EU are looking to end rebates and 2020 is the end of the current one.
 
Who's going for the outcome:
May's deal get's voted down including by the DUP .
May throws the DUP under a bus and put's the Irish border in the Irish sea with NI staying in the CU and SM.
Rest of the Uk fall off the cliff and Scotland declare war on England.
 
Paul the Wolf said:
Who's going for the outcome:
May's deal get's voted down including by the DUP .
May throws the DUP under a bus and put's the Irish border in the Irish sea with NI staying in the CU and SM.
Rest of the Uk fall off the cliff and Scotland declare war on England.
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Going by whats coming out this morning parliament will never vote on her deal. She doesn't want the loss.
 
Smores said:
Going by whats coming out this morning parliament will never vote on her deal. She doesn't want the loss.
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Forgive my ignorance on the subject, but what happens if the parliament doesn't vote? Automatically a no-deal Brexit?
 
onemanarmy said:
Forgive my ignorance on the subject, but what happens if the parliament doesn't vote? Automatically a no-deal Brexit?
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Is that you Theresa?

It would be if they didn't vote at all but i think they're going to try and avoid a loss or amendments and instead let the alternatives be put forward in their own right so we'd have a vote on them instead.

I think parliamentary procedure would usually enforce the vote on Mays deal and the speaker has previously said as such but I'm sure the government will find some contemptuous way round it
 
onemanarmy said:
Forgive my ignorance on the subject, but what happens if the parliament doesn't vote? Automatically a no-deal Brexit?
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yes... and no
If there is not a vote by 21st Jan then parliament basically gets a bigger say in what happens and they could potentially bring forward a binding motion to prevent no deal... the issue is that legally the default position is to no deal so to enforce their binding motion they would have to extend or abolish A50 - or get a deal approved
Basically its a big bloody mess and nobody is sure what happens
i suspect early in the new year they put forward some non-binding motions to see what kind of deal might get through the commons hoping to find a majority for something - I dont think they will and then I dunno its too late to do a referendum without extending A50 which the Eu may not accept anyway - and I dont think she would withdraw A50 so i guess default position of no deal (which parliment may have tried to block)
Its over used but genuinely probably a constitutional crisis
 
Thanks guys. As I see it, the EU already stated multiple times that it's this deal or no deal, but I guess it's in the best interest of both to at least get some kind of deal. They are both playing hard ball at the moment.
 
Smores said:
Going by whats coming out this morning parliament will never vote on her deal. She doesn't want the loss.
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I hear talk of amendments, but amendments to what?

As far as I am concerned there is only a choice between No deal, cancel Brexit and the deal on the table.

That's why I mentioned NI, at this moment May is determined for the Uk to leave the EU so she'll go through No Deal if she has to and try to separate NI from the rest of the UK. After all she said she would never do that so it's pretty much odds on she will.

Overall it's a constitutional crisis. I'm sure someone said there was a benefit to Brexit.
 
Paul the Wolf said:
Who's going for the outcome:
May's deal get's voted down including by the DUP .
May throws the DUP under a bus and put's the Irish border in the Irish sea with NI staying in the CU and SM.
Rest of the Uk fall off the cliff and Scotland declare war on England.
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That would probably be the quickest and easiest way for her to resolve all this now.
 
Paul the Wolf said:
I hear talk of amendments, but amendments to what?

As far as I am concerned there is only a choice between No deal, cancel Brexit and the deal on the table.

That's why I mentioned NI, at this moment May is determined for the Uk to leave the EU so she'll go through No Deal if she has to and try to separate NI from the rest of the UK. After all she said she would never do that so it's pretty much odds on she will.

Overall it's a constitutional crisis. I'm sure someone said there was a benefit to Brexit.
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Subject to ratification by the speaker for whatever they want but it seemed clear prior to May pulling the vote that blocking no deal, asking for an extension and referendum were going to be put to vote. I still expect them to be tabled in any indicative motions

We're talking about amendments to approach rather than to the deal. The deal is the deal without new red lines and that would require extension and probably a GE
 
redshaw said:
Yes we have a veto but the EU are looking to end rebates and 2020 is the end of the current one.
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Right, but a veto means just that. We have to waive the veto in order to lose the rebate. If all EU countries bar the UK wanted to end the rebate they still couldn't do so without our acquiescence.
 
Kuensberg must be writing the BBC live blog today, they're reporting all Mays 'zingers' and missing out key statements that portray May badly
 
Smores said:
I was being jestful but my point stands, i always have both BBC and Guardian blogs open to follow these as i want quotes not biased interpretation so with both hopefully covered. The BBC are consistently omitting or backfilling items whilst missing key exchanges or quotes out.

It's not on when so many get their news primarily from the BBC
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to be fair the bbc is somewhere between the mail and the guardian (both being somewhat on the right / left)... if the BBC coverage was comparable to either the mail or the guardian there would be something wrong
 
John Redwood, the Tory Brexiter, asks May to confirm there would be no tariffs on manufacturing components in the event of a no deal Brexit. That would boost manufacturing, he says.

May says the government is looking at this issue.

This is criminally stupid and negligent.

More moronics from another Brexiter:

Sir Edward Leigh, a Tory Brexiter, says he could be persuaded to vote for the deal if there were a legally binding protocol saying, that if the backstop ceased to be temporary, it would no longer be binding.

May welcomes Leigh’s comment. She says she wants to ensure the backstop never gets used.
 
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Paul the Wolf said:
John Redwood, the Tory Brexiter, asks May to confirm there would be no tariffs on manufacturing components in the event of a no deal Brexit. That would boost manufacturing, he says.

May says the government is looking at this issue.

This is criminally stupid and negligent.

More moronics from another Brexiter:

Sir Edward Leigh, a Tory Brexiter, says he could be persuaded to vote for the deal if there were a legally binding protocol saying, that if the backstop ceased to be temporary, it would no longer be binding.

May welcomes Leigh’s comment. She says she wants to ensure the backstop never gets used.
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I just checked Leigh’s Wiki page and he is a barrister by profession....
 
Paul the Wolf said:
John Redwood, the Tory Brexiter, asks May to confirm there would be no tariffs on manufacturing components in the event of a no deal Brexit. That would boost manufacturing, he says.

May says the government is looking at this issue.

This is criminally stupid and negligent.

More moronics from another Brexiter:

Sir Edward Leigh, a Tory Brexiter, says he could be persuaded to vote for the deal if there were a legally binding protocol saying, that if the backstop ceased to be temporary, it would no longer be binding.

May welcomes Leigh’s comment. She says she wants to ensure the backstop never gets used.
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Mogg must know she can't guarantee no tarriffs on components and how the hell will it 'boost manufacturing'? I guess it sounds better than 'feck it over slightly less'.

That Leigh sentence makes my head hurt.
 
The fact MPs and the house want and are willing to cut short the christmas recess but the government refuses is embarrassing.

I can't figure anywhere in today's statement where May clarifies what she achieved from speaking to the EU or what she's planning to get.
 
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